Issued 26th August 2019. Some locations across SEQLD and NENSW could see 3 days of repeat showers and storms between Tuesday and Thursday this week. A number of locations could see totals of 10-25mm during this time. Above image: next 5 day rainfall totals via ECMWF at Windy.com
There still remains some uncertainty between various forecast models for rainfall totals and the Thursday / Friday daily forecast however most locations in the circled area are likely to see some rain this week.
An upper trough with cold pool of air is expected to enter South East QLD and North East NSW on Tuesday afternoon causing instability. The cold pool will then be located right over both areas on Wednesday and Thursday with increased instability. Thats great upper support but the focus needs to be placed on the surface and mid level trough which delivers moist conditions to its east needed for rainfall.
Tuesday Forecast: The surface trough is expected to be located along the ranges in SEQLD & NENSW with moist unstable conditions in its vicinity. Isolated afternoon showers and storms are forecast to develop along the ranges from about Kingaroy through Toowoomba and Warwick down to Dorrigo in NENSW (Burnett, Eastern Downs, Granite Belt & Northern Tablelands). They are forecast to travel slowly East and could reach the coast South of Brisbane to Coffs Harbour late in the afternoon.
Wednesday Forecast: The surface trough is expected to be located through Southern inland QLD down into North East NSW from Tambo through St George, Goondiwindi, to Coffs Harbour with moist unstable conditions to its east. There is also a mid level trough which is forecast to add additional moisture across SEQLD and NENSW. Morning showers and light rain areas are possible across the Maranoa, Darling Downs & Granite Belt, northern parts of the Northern Tablelands into the Northern Rivers districts. This activity is forecast to slide East South East with additional showers and storms developing further East during the afternoon. This activity should reach the coast from the Sunshine Coast south to Coffs Harbour. There is some potential for overnight showers and rain areas. Any decent showers and storms are likely to contain amounts of small hail due to very cold air aloft.
Thursday Forecast: It remains a little uncertain between data models but the best case for rain will be as follows… The surface trough could be located along the ranges from Gayndah, Kingaroy, Toowoomba, Warwick to Grafton with moist unstable conditions to its East. (some models suggest it will be offshore). Scattered afternoon showers and storms may develop East of the ranges across the Wide Bay, Burnett, South East Coast and Northern Rivers districts. This activity would push East and reach the coast from Bundaberg south to Grafton.
Friday is also a wild card with yet another possible upper cold pool of air over NENSW and SEQLD triggering some showers and storms but we will have to wait and see if that holds or not…
Some will get more than others and a few may miss out but every drop is welcome and we need to be grateful!
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