About Jeff HigginsI have had a passion for weather since I was 8 years old. In 2011 I created Higgins Storm Chasing on Facebook which has now grown into a successful meteorology business.
Issued 15th Sept 2019. New South Wales is in for a mixed weather bag early this week with rain, snow, storms and strong winds on the forecast! A cold front will move North across Southern districts on Monday before developing into a Low across Central East districts on Tuesday. The low is expected to briefly intensify just off the NSW coast on Tuesday night. Above image: rainfall via Windy.com
The heaviest falls of 50-100mm are forecast along the coast from Newcastle, Gosford, Sydney, Wollongong, to Ulladulla between Monday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. 10-25mm is forecast through Central inland parts of NSW with lighter falls of 5-10mm across Southern inland areas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the North East quarter of the state on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could be severe with damaging winds due to strong in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Those areas directly under storm activity could receive up to 20mm of rain.
5-10cms of snow is likely across the Alps on Monday night and Tuesday morning. Model data is continually suggesting possible heavier snow falls of 7-15cms across higher elevations on the Southern and Central Tablelands of NSW during Monday night and Tuesday morning. This snow is highly subject to low level temperatures remaining cold enough… given the current data it could easily fall as rain and sleet instead of snow but it will be interesting to see what happens!
WINDS & TEMPERATURES:
Maximum temperatures will be well above average across the Northern 2/3rds of NSW on Monday before the arrival of the cold front. Northern districts will see maximum temperatures of 30-34C. On Tuesday an 8-12C temperature drop will push across all districts accept the far North East. The Central Tablelands will see max temps of just 6-10C on Tuesday with most of the state struggling to reach 20C.
On Monday winds will be very warm from the North West across the Northern half of the state while the Southern half will have much cooler Southerlies developing. During Tuesday coastal districts South from Newcastle will see South East winds become very gusty as the low develops. Central inland will experience strong South East winds as well while Northern inland areas are expected to see strong South West winds. These strong South West winds may kick up areas of dust on Tuesday afternoon.
Detailed Higgins in-house rain, storm and snow maps are available to premium members. Find out more or subscribe HERE or by clicking on the image below!
Issued 26th August 2019. Some locations across SEQLD and NENSW could see 3 days of repeat showers and storms between Tuesday and Thursday this week. A number of locations could see totals of 10-25mm during this time. Above image: next 5 day rainfall totals via ECMWF at Windy.com
There still remains some uncertainty between various forecast models for rainfall totals and the Thursday / Friday daily forecast however most locations in the circled area are likely to see some rain this week.
An upper trough with cold pool of air is expected to enter South East QLD and North East NSW on Tuesday afternoon causing instability. The cold pool will then be located right over both areas on Wednesday and Thursday with increased instability. Thats great upper support but the focus needs to be placed on the surface and mid level trough which delivers moist conditions to its east needed for rainfall.
Tuesday Forecast: The surface trough is expected to be located along the ranges in SEQLD & NENSW with moist unstable conditions in its vicinity. Isolated afternoon showers and storms are forecast to develop along the ranges from about Kingaroy through Toowoomba and Warwick down to Dorrigo in NENSW (Burnett, Eastern Downs, Granite Belt & Northern Tablelands). They are forecast to travel slowly East and could reach the coast South of Brisbane to Coffs Harbour late in the afternoon.
Wednesday Forecast: The surface trough is expected to be located through Southern inland QLD down into North East NSW from Tambo through St George, Goondiwindi, to Coffs Harbour with moist unstable conditions to its east. There is also a mid level trough which is forecast to add additional moisture across SEQLD and NENSW. Morning showers and light rain areas are possible across the Maranoa, Darling Downs & Granite Belt, northern parts of the Northern Tablelands into the Northern Rivers districts. This activity is forecast to slide East South East with additional showers and storms developing further East during the afternoon. This activity should reach the coast from the Sunshine Coast south to Coffs Harbour. There is some potential for overnight showers and rain areas. Any decent showers and storms are likely to contain amounts of small hail due to very cold air aloft.
Thursday Forecast: It remains a little uncertain between data models but the best case for rain will be as follows… The surface trough could be located along the ranges from Gayndah, Kingaroy, Toowoomba, Warwick to Grafton with moist unstable conditions to its East. (some models suggest it will be offshore). Scattered afternoon showers and storms may develop East of the ranges across the Wide Bay, Burnett, South East Coast and Northern Rivers districts. This activity would push East and reach the coast from Bundaberg south to Grafton.
Friday is also a wild card with yet another possible upper cold pool of air over NENSW and SEQLD triggering some showers and storms but we will have to wait and see if that holds or not…
Some will get more than others and a few may miss out but every drop is welcome and we need to be grateful!
SEQLD detailed HSC in-house storm and rainfall maps are available through our membership service. With storm season fast approaching we suggest you see what we have to offer while supporting our work. Click on the image below to find out more information or to subscribe!
Updated 26th August 2019 please see here for latest details…
Issued 24th August 2019. Look what we have on the forecast… Showers & storms are on the cards across parts SEQLD & parts of NSW! Above image via BSCH showing the % of models forecasting precipitation on Wednesday.
Tuesday: Isolated showers and storms will be possible through inland areas of SEQLD (along the ranges from Yarraman to Warwick and across the Scenic Rim). Moisture and instability are pretty weak but there is still a 50% chance of these developing. Showers and some storms will be more likely along the Central and Northern NSW coast (Sydney to Newcastle showers, Taree to Byron Bay showers and storms).
Wednesday: Scattered showers and storms are likely across SEQLD in the yellow circled area. Some of these storms will also contain small hail due to very cold air above. They are expected to develop through inland areas during the early afternoon and slowly move East into the South East coast. Shower and storm activity in NSW will contract into the far North East (yellow circled area).
Given the current severe drought conditions we are pleased to see any activity forecast especially in August & September. Our new public “severe thunderstorm watch maps” are ready for public release on thunderstorm days in NENSW and SEQLD. Find out more about what a “severe thunderstorm watch” is HERE!
We predict that October will be a very active storm month across NENSW and SEQLD!
HSC premium members please keep an eye on our website forecasts from tomorrow morning as the detailed rain and storm maps will be issued for this system.
If you would like to subscribe to our premium weather service and gain access to detailed thunderstorm and rainfall forecast maps find out more about our premium weather service by clicking here > https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/ or on the image below.
Issued 14th August 2019. After a huge polar low delivered massive amounts of snow over the weekend, negative SAM (Southern Annular Mode) is going to hang in there for another round later this week into next week. A low pressure system south of Tasmania will push a polar airmass northwards over Victoria, the ACT Southern and Central NSW this Sunday & Monday. Above image via Pivotal Weather showing the very cold air.
VICTORIA: A cold front will sweep East across Victoria with a band of showers on Sunday. Northerly winds could reach 90km hr across Alpine areas and some data suggests Thunder snow is possible on Sunday night with blizzards conditions. 20-30cms of fresh snow is forecast in the 24hrs from Sunday to Monday across the Alps. Snow levels are also forecast to drop to 700 meters across the state so some snow flurries will be possible at Ballarat and Trentham.
ACT: Showers are forecast to develop on Sunday afternoon and continue overnight possibly into Monday. Showers will falls as snow on the ranges with 10-20cms expected on the peaks. Some brief snow flurries will be possible in Canberra early Monday morning.
NSW: The cold front moves East across the interior on Sunday with strong cold Westerly winds developing through the Western half of the state. A band of showers and isolated storms are forecast across Southern areas which will eventually reach the Central Tablelands Sunday night. The coldest airmass arrives late Sunday night and hangs around until Midday Monday so snow will be possible on the CTs during this time. AT this stage the snow producing cold air and precipitation does NOT reach the Northern Tablelands.
For SA the front moves through on Sunday with showers and isolated storms across the South East. In Tasmania the front moves through on Sunday and Monday with showers across the state and snow to low levels on Monday. Below image snow accumulation forecast totals via Windy.com
We produce accurate daily snow forecasts and maps across Victoria, the ACT and NSW with amounts, times and locations listed. Click here to subscribe to our membership or on the image below for more information!
Issued 8th August 2019. Snow often falls on the ACT ranges during strong cold fronts but it always struggles to reach Canberra city due to the lower elevation. The polar airmass coming this weekend is a ripper and computer models are suggesting anywhere from 2 to 7cms of snow to fall in Canberra and the surrounding suburbs. Above image GFS snow accumulation forecast via Windy.com
On Saturday a -40C cold pool of air at 20,000ft moves over the ACT which also hangs around into Sunday. This significantly lowers the freezing levels down to 800 meters ASL. This snow level height brings most of the Canberra Hills into likely contention. The key for Canberra to get snow is the surface temperature minimums… On Friday night into Saturday morning and Saturday night into Sunday morning its expected to drop to -2C. Then all you need is precipitation during these times to produce snow to lower levels of say 500 meters. The ranges do act as a rain / snow shadow so it will be very interesting to see if and how much snow makes it into the city and the surrounding suburbs. The potential is very high and models suggest it will happen. Below image showing the very cold polar airmass on Saturday via GFS/BSCH
We provide detailed rain, snow and storm forecasts and maps to the ACT on our members website. Subscribe HERE or click on the image below for more information.
Issued 7th August 2019. A perfect forecast opportunity exists to experience SNOW on the Northern Tablelands of NSW this weekend with snow also possible in QLD on the Granite Belt! Above image: Torah Higgins enjoying the snow at Ben Lomond Northern NSW in early June this year. HSC Thomas will be chasing and reporting this snow event in Northern NSW.
Forecast data is confidently predicting snow falls to occur on the Northern Tablelands of NSW late this Saturday into Sunday night. The places most likely to receive the best settled snow is at Guyra and Ben Lomond with between 5 and 10cms expected. Further South at Walcha and Hanging Rock near Tamworth they are forecast to get 10-15cms. Snow is also likely at Nundle, Uralla, Armidale, Glen Innes and Deepwater in NSW. Snow is also a good chance but may not settle on the ground at Tenterfield (Mt Mackenzie), Wallangarra, Ballendean, Stanthorpe, Applethorpe and Eukey in QLD. Below image snow forecast via Windy.com
With all these regions suffering from extreme drought and hardship the tourism is most welcome! Its not very far to drive to experience a white wonderland with the family from anywhere in South East Queensland. Accommodation will be in high demand at Guyra but places like Glen Innes and Tenterfield offer many options which are just a short drive away from the best snow. You can also try Dunmore Trout Waters not far from Ben Lomond. Please PRESERVE ALL WATER USAGE take bottled water or buy it locally. Below image is the best travel option to Ben Lomond NSW for the best snow opportunity.
The current snow window of opportunity is very specific… Saturday late afternoon until Sunday night in NSW and Saturday night or Sunday early morning on the Granite Belt. Below image the chances of precipitation from Saturday 9am to Sunday 9am via OCF/BSCH
We have detailed HSC snow forecast maps and times for QLD and NSW available on our website. Subscribe for the latest up to date information here or click on the image below for more information!
Issued 7th August 2019. The weather is about to turn pretty wild and nasty across large parts of South Australia including Adelaide. A weak low is bringing some rain today but tomorrow a powerful cold front will open the proceedings for 3 days worth of severe weather. An incredibly cold polar airmass will arrive on Friday with snow being possible across the ranges in the South East. Above image showing the mid level polar airmass via GFS/BSCH
Rain, Storms, Hail & possible Snow: The best falls are expected across the Mt Lofty ranges due to orographic lifting with locally moderate to heavy falls possible and totals near 50mm likely. The Southern agricultural areas, Lower west coast, Central coast and South east coasts are forecast to receive 15-30mm from the system. Lighter falls of 5-15mm are forecast through the Northern agricultural areas. Showers with hail are likely across the South East of the state. Storms with hail are possible across the South East of the state.
The snow level is currently forecast at 900 meters which is just above most ranges in the South East… however when showers with hail occur they drag down the much colder air from aloft effectively lowering the snow level. Given this scenario the coldest airmass is forecast to arrive late Friday and last into Saturday. The highest chances for snow will be during this time along the highest ranges in the South East (Mt lofty). Showers will start off producing small hail at first then snow is possible for brief periods as the cold air comes down. Its definitely something worth keeping an eye on that the kids would love to experience. Below image rainfall forecast totals via windy.com
Wind: Damaging Westerly winds up to 110kmhr are forecast across the South East quarter of the state with the arrival of the cold front on Thursday afternoon. The initial front could produce raised dust across the state and a dust storm through the Murraylands, Riverland and North East districts. Winds will ease slightly on Friday but remain very strong and gusty during Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures: COLD with a bitter wind chill of up to 10C so most places will have feels like temps in the single digits. Below image damaging winds on Thursday via Windy.com
Issued 6th August 2019. Four multiple complex low pressure systems are forecast to form into a very large polar low that will impact South East Australia from Tuesday through until Sunday this week.
The first low (10S) with a pressure of 985hpa will move East across the Southern Ocean to the South of Tasmania on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing strong winds and showers to South East SA, Tasmania and Victoria. Bloew image via Weatherzone.
A second low (10B) 1005hpa develops over South East SA near Adelaide on Wednesday and slides South East across Victoria and into Bass Straight then across Tasmania on Thursday deepening to a pressure of 985hpa. The system will produce rain and storms with hail across South East SA, rain and possible storms with hail across Victoria with moderate snow on the Alps. Rain and snow also across Tasmania. Below image via Windy.com
A third stronger low (11B) 979hpa approaches South East SA on Thursday then moves East into Bass Straight on Friday. This low will produce damaging winds to 110km hr across South East SA, Victoria and parts of NSW. Rain areas, scattered showers and storm with hail is also expected. Heavy snow and blizzards are forecast across the Alps with snow in the ACT and Central Tablelands of NSW. below image via Windy.com
This is where things get serious…
The second low 10B is forecast to be located just East of Tasmania and merges with the third low 11B on Friday to produce a very large dominant low pressure system (10T) 970hpa. The new low remains slow moving East of Tasmania during Friday, Saturday and Sunday and eventually drifts East towards New Zealand as a new high 1030hpa builds in the Bight.
The very strong pressure gradient between the large polar low near Tasmania and the large high in the Bight will project a 100km hr polar airmass Northwards across the Southern Ocean impacting South East Australia during the 3 days. This weather system will then produce another round of strong to damaging winds, showers with hail, rain areas, storms with hail and low level snow across South East SA, Tasmania, Victoria, the ACT and NSW. Below image via Windy.com
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Issued 5th August 2019. Here comes the biggest Winter storm for 2019 as a Polar Low lines up South East Australia! This system will impact well over half of the population for 4 days so its worth taking note of. Above image the big polar low forecast position on Thursday via Pivotal.
South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria, the ACT and NSW will all be directly impacted while Queensland will feel the affects.