Jeff

/Jeff Higgins

About Jeff Higgins

I have had a passion for weather since I was 8 years old. In 2011 I created Higgins Storm Chasing on Facebook which has now grown into a successful meteorology business.
25 10, 2019

Weather alert for NSW Saturday: Very strong winds, Dust & Severe fire dangers

2019-10-25T11:36:25+10:00


Issued 25th for Saturday 26th Oct 19. Nasty weather is forecast to impact most of New South Wales on Saturday thanks to a strong cold front. Strong to locally damaging West to South West winds with gusts up to 100km hour will blast across the entire state. This will likely lead to dusty conditions being generated across the Northern half of the state especially inland. Some of this dust may even reach the Central Coast. People in the dust forecast areas need to be mindful by taking necessary precautions during travel, while working outside and also having respiratory medication on hand. Above image: Wind gusts via Windy.com

Very warm maximum temperatures with low humidity levels will also combine with these strong winds across the North East quarter of the state. Very High to Severe fire dangers are expected across many districts but the highest fire risk areas look to be North from Sydney and East from Dubbo to Lightning Ridge. The fire dangers ratings will be issued by NSWRFS late on Friday for Saturday. People in these areas should have a bush fire survival plan in place and be ready for emergency fire warnings to be issued from the NSWRFS. These types of fire conditions are similar to the recent Rappville fire which claimed lives and took many homes. Below image: Maximum temperatures on Saturday.

The strongest winds of 80-100km hour are forecast across the Southern Ranges, the ACT, Southern, Central and Northern Tablelands, Illawarra, South East Coast and Hunter districts. People in these areas should prepare by securing loose items around the home and watch for fallen trees and power lines. 

Sadly very little rainfall from showers or storms is expected from the system. There could be some better showers and storms across the state from mid next week but we will have to wait and see what eventuates. In the meantime the situation remains very desperate and critical for rain. 

We provide rainfall and storm forecasts and maps across NSW, the ACT and Victoria, this includes our new North East quarter of NSW detailed zoomed maps. Become a Higgins subscriber HERE to gain access to our forecast services. 

 

Weather alert for NSW Saturday: Very strong winds, Dust & Severe fire dangers2019-10-25T11:36:25+10:00
15 10, 2019

Storms returning to South East & Central East QLD – some severe!

2019-10-15T12:34:00+10:00


Issued Tuesday 15th October for Thursday 17th October 2019. 

Hi everyone,
high instability levels are expected to lead to scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the South East and Central East QLD. Some storms are expected to be severe with large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall are more likely but not limited to the red circled area.
These are the highest instability levels observed so far this storm season and it is a timely reminder to ensure all precautions around the home and at work are carried out. Securing loose items such as trampolines from damaging winds is important to prevent them from becoming deadly projectiles.
A majority of storm damage is caused to cars by large hail. It’s important to note that while travelling to keep up with the latest severe storm warnings. On many occasions avoiding large hail is as simple as pulling over or delaying your travel for 15 minutes outside of a storms core.
Our thunderstorm risk maps for SEQLD & QLD have been issued on our website in the premium member forecast area. Login here!  Or subscribe here!

Trusted sponsor: For maximised TAX, BAS & GST returns with no fuss and great personalised customer service, give Aaron a call at Complete Tax & Financial Services in Brisbane >

Storms returning to South East & Central East QLD – some severe!2019-10-15T12:34:00+10:00
30 09, 2019

2019-20 Tropical Cyclone Outlook Australian Region

2019-09-30T14:00:41+10:00

Higgins Storm Chasing produces in-house high resolution, high accuracy Tropical Low / Tropical Cyclone forecast track and threat maps for all of Australia. Click here for more details… 

Key Points

• A forecast total of 10 cyclones in the Australian region which is near average. 5 of these cyclones being severe category 3 or higher. 5 systems potentially crossing the Australian coastline. 

• Eastern region: Queensland, Coral Sea and Gulf of Carpentaria. A total of 4 cyclones with 2 possibly severe (category 3 or higher). 2 of these systems potentially crossing the Queensland coast.

• Northern region: Northern Territory, Western Gulf of Carpentaria and Arafura Sea. A total of 2 cyclones with 1 possibly severe (category 3 or higher). 1 system potentially crossing the NT or Western Gulf coast.

• Western region: Western Australia, Timor Sea, Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and Indian Ocean. A total of 4 cyclones with 2 possibly severe (category 3 or higher). 2 of these systems potentially crossing the coast. 

• Tropical Lows: Up to 15 tropical lows are also forecast to develop across the Australian region with many of them impacting the mainland. Tropical lows are one of Northern Australia’s biggest rainfall producers during the wet season. Occasionally they also end up tracking further South into Central and Southern Australian regions. They bring widespread heavy rain, flooding and sometimes damaging winds. Its not uncommon for tropical lows to bring rainfall totals of 250-500mm even 1000mm+ just from one system given their slow moving nature and very high moisture levels. 

Forecast Notes
 The current ENSO climate driver in the Central Pacific Ocean is neutral (neither warmer or cooler than average sea surface temperatures).  Sea surface temperatures across the Western Pacific near the equator and also through the South West Pacific Islands is above average and forecast to continue to remain above average during this cyclone season. The Coral Sea waters are near average and forecast to stay near average this season. Given this scenario there is a higher potential for cyclones to develop in the far Northern and Eastern Coral Sea with increased chances of them being severe. Cyclones in these areas often track West to South West towards Queensland.

• The Northern Australian sea surface temperatures in the Gulf , between our mainland PNG and Indonesia are currently near average. These waters are forecast to climb to above average from January-April. Given this scenario there is a higher potential for cyclones to develop across Northern Australia in the new year. 

• A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole is current and expected to last until January.  This climate driver is currently Australia’s most primary dominant feature. It often brings below average rainfall and above average temperatures to much of Australia. Given this scenario a later than usual wet season start is expected with a delay of northern monsoon trough. The MJO eastward propagation also could be blocked while very limited cyclone development is expected across the Western region during October, November and December. Given the expected breakdown of the positive IOD in January a late season burst of cyclones is increasingly possible for the Western region.

• The Sudden Stratospheric Warming event over the South Pole has occurred and is now cooling quickly again. We do not believe it will have any impact at all on Australia’s climate during the next 6 months.

***Please keep in mind that it only takes 1 severe cyclone to cross the coast causing significant widespread damage! The biggest threats are very heavy rain causing major flooding, sea surge causing coastal inundation and destructive winds causing property and infrastructure damage. All of these weather threats are potentially life threatening! We will provide a high number of cyclone forecasts and updates if required this season. Given the current severe drought across many areas of Australia we need Ex Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Lows to track inland bringing widespread rainfall.*** Forecast map and text strictly not for news media use without express permission ***

Higgins Storm Chasing produces in-house high resolution, high accuracy Tropical Low / Tropical Cyclone forecast track and threat maps for all of Australia. Click here for more details or on the image below… 

2019-20 Tropical Cyclone Outlook Australian Region2019-09-30T14:00:41+10:00
23 09, 2019

NEW weather forecasts & maps for severely drought affected NENSW

2019-09-23T18:38:10+10:00

Issued 23rd September 2019. At Higgins Storm Chasing we have made a conscious decision to produce new in-house forecasts for the severely drought affected North East quarter of NSW. The new zoomed forecast covers an area from Newcastle north to Tweed Heads, west to Dubbo, Coonamble and Walgett including all “grey area” locations along the QLD & NSW border.
Above image: NENSW 24hr daily rainfall forecast map sample (low resolution). The new high resolution forecasts and maps have been activated as of today! 

There are 70 individual locations listed on our maps with 17 selected to include minimum and maximum temperature forecasts.

These new 24 hour rainfall, thunderstorm risk and snowfall maps will provide full daily forecasts up to 5 days ahead, a week ahead rainfall forecast total and month ahead rainfall total outlook. They will compliment our existing NSW, ACT and Victoria state forecasts and maps which also include a 3 month rainfall and temperature outlooks. Our 4 tier thunderstorm risk maps will provide an early warning preparation for severe and dangerous storm activity.

We believe our new product guidance will assist many farmers and graziers in these areas to make decisions while also providing everyone in the general public some hope in the search for any future rainfall.  
The water storage dams, rivers, creeks, potable water supply and the stock feed situation is at critical levels across this part of NSW. With storm season now just weeks away, we will provide accurate forecasts and up to date live information across the region while taking into extra consideration that “Every drop counts”.

The new forecasts will increase our work load by around an hour a day however there will be NO yearly subscription price increase to our existing or new premium members.

Existing members please login here and go to the NSW drop down forecast where you will find “NENSW forecast”. If you would like to gain access to our forecast and maps that cover QLD, SEQLD zoomed, NSW, ACT, Victoria and NENSW zoomed, Australia wide weekly rain and cyclones – please click here or on the image below to subscribe or for more information. 

NEW weather forecasts & maps for severely drought affected NENSW2019-09-23T18:38:10+10:00
23 09, 2019

Central Aust, Uluru, Alice Springs Rain and Storms

2019-09-23T16:48:22+10:00


Issued 23rd Sept 2019. Parts of Central Australia has been receiving rain and storms today with more to follow… It has been 4 months since Alice Springs recored more than 1mm of rain! Above image: Radar, Satellite and Lightning via Weatherzone.com.au

An upper level trough of cold air has made its way into the Centre of Australia from down south. This feature is causing widespread instability through the interior of WA just south of Fitzroy Crossing and Halls Creek while extending East into the Central West and South West of NT. Light rain has been falling for most of the day just West and South of Alice Springs. Scattered showers and storms have fired up across the Northern Interior of WA. 6mm was recorded to 9am this morning at Yuendumu to the North West of Alice Springs and 10mm at Ruby Downs just south of Halls Creek. While Alice Springs itself has only had a light shower so far, heavy cloud cover has produced a cool day with just 16C recorded so far. 

The system is forecast to move towards the East / South East on Monday night into Tuesday. Yulara and Uluru should see some overnight rain and maybe even a storm tonight then some light rain tomorrow. Alice Springs has rain forecast tomorrow with up to 10mm expected which is there entire average rainfall amount for September. Locally higher falls to 25mm are possible across the South West quarter of NT during Tuesday. Below image: 3 day rainfall forecast via Windy.com

By Wednesday the system will have weakened to nothing with no further rainfall expected for the next week. 

Central Aust, Uluru, Alice Springs Rain and Storms2019-09-23T16:48:22+10:00
16 09, 2019

Storms & Severe Fire Dangers for parts of SEQLD & NENSW

2019-09-16T17:39:08+10:00


Issued 16th Sept 2019. Tomorrow (Tuesday) is potentially a risk of severe weather across parts of South East QLD and North East NSW as a strong trough moves through. Above image: Wind gusts via Windy.com with weather risks highlighted by HSC. 

South East and Southern inland QLD: For areas across the Eastern Darling Downs, Granite Belt there is up to a 50% chance for some isolated high based showers and thunderstorms to develop. These showers and storm chances increase to around 70-90% across the South East Coast daily South of the Sunshine Coast though they should still remain isolated hit n miss. Any storms that develop will have a moderate risk of producing damaging winds over 90km hr due to very strong mid level winds being dragged down to the surface. If stronger storms do develop there is also a low to moderate risk of large hail between 2-4cms. Lightning will pose a bush fire starting risk. 
Maximum temperatures 29-33C are forecast with very low humidity levels. A strong North Westerly wind flow is expected across the Darling Downs and Granite Belt during the morning with a strong a gusty South West wind change developing during the afternoon. The combination of heat, low humidity and strong winds will cause SEVERE bush fire dangers. Winds East of the ranges will be moderate North West to North Easterly. 

North East and Northern inland NSW: For areas along and East of the ranges there is up to a 90% chance of scattered showers and storms developing between Port Macquarie and Lismore. Any storms that develop will have a moderate risk of producing damaging winds over 90km hr due to very strong mid level winds being dragged down to the surface. If stronger storms do develop, which is higher possibility due to higher moisture, a moderate risk of large hail between 2-4cms will exist. Lightning will also pose a bush fire starting risk. Very warm, dry and windy conditions will cause a very high fire danger across the Northern Slopes and New England districts. 

Lets hope that new fires don’t flare up again and that some people get some rain! Detailed in-house Higgins rainfall and thunderstorm risk maps are available for SEQLD and NENSW. Click here or on the image below for more information and to subscribe! 

Storms & Severe Fire Dangers for parts of SEQLD & NENSW2019-09-16T17:39:08+10:00
15 09, 2019

NSW rain, snow & storms early this week

2019-09-15T10:35:55+10:00


Issued 15th Sept 2019. New South Wales is in for a mixed weather bag early this week with rain, snow, storms and strong winds on the forecast! A cold front will move North across Southern districts on Monday before developing into a Low across Central East districts on Tuesday. The low is expected to briefly intensify just off the NSW coast on Tuesday night. Above image: rainfall via Windy.com

RAIN:
The heaviest falls of 50-100mm are forecast along the coast from Newcastle, Gosford,  Sydney, Wollongong, to Ulladulla between Monday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. 10-25mm is forecast through Central inland parts of NSW with lighter falls of 5-10mm across Southern inland areas.

STORMS:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the North East quarter of the state on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could be severe with damaging winds due to strong in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Those areas directly under storm activity could receive up to 20mm of rain. 

SNOW:
5-10cms of snow is likely across the Alps on Monday night and Tuesday morning. Model data is continually suggesting possible heavier snow falls of 7-15cms across higher elevations on the Southern and Central Tablelands of NSW during Monday night and Tuesday morning. This snow is highly subject to low level temperatures remaining cold enough… given the current data it could easily fall as rain and sleet instead of snow but it will be interesting to see what happens! 

WINDS & TEMPERATURES:
Maximum temperatures will be well above average across the Northern 2/3rds of NSW on Monday before the arrival of the cold front. Northern districts will see maximum temperatures of 30-34C. On Tuesday an 8-12C temperature drop will push across all districts accept the far North East. The Central Tablelands will see max temps of just 6-10C on Tuesday with most of the state struggling to reach 20C. 
On Monday winds will be very warm from the North West across the Northern half of the state while the Southern half will have much cooler Southerlies developing. During Tuesday coastal districts South from Newcastle will see South East winds become very gusty as the low develops. Central inland will experience strong South East winds as well while Northern inland areas are expected to see strong South West winds. These strong South West winds may kick up areas of dust on Tuesday afternoon.

Detailed Higgins in-house rain, storm and snow maps are available to premium members. Find out more or subscribe HERE or by clicking on the image below! 

NSW rain, snow & storms early this week2019-09-15T10:35:55+10:00
26 08, 2019

3 days of shower & storm potential for SEQLD & NENSW

2019-08-26T12:43:19+10:00


Issued 26th August 2019. Some locations across SEQLD and NENSW could see 3 days of repeat showers and storms between Tuesday and Thursday this week. A number of locations could see totals of 10-25mm during this time. Above image: next 5 day rainfall totals via ECMWF at Windy.com

There still remains some uncertainty between various forecast models for rainfall totals and the Thursday / Friday daily forecast however most locations in the circled area are likely to see some rain this week. 

An upper trough with cold pool of air is expected to enter South East QLD and North East NSW on Tuesday afternoon causing instability. The cold pool will then be located right over both areas on Wednesday and Thursday with increased instability. Thats great upper support but the focus needs to be placed on the surface and mid level trough which delivers moist conditions to its east needed for rainfall. 

Tuesday Forecast: The surface trough is expected to be located along the ranges in SEQLD & NENSW with moist unstable conditions in its vicinity. Isolated afternoon showers and storms are forecast to develop along the ranges from about Kingaroy through Toowoomba and Warwick down to Dorrigo in NENSW (Burnett, Eastern Downs, Granite Belt & Northern Tablelands). They are forecast to travel slowly East and could reach the coast South of Brisbane to Coffs Harbour late in the afternoon. 

Wednesday Forecast: The surface trough is expected to be located through Southern inland QLD down into North East NSW from Tambo through St George, Goondiwindi, to Coffs Harbour with moist unstable conditions to its east. There is also a mid level trough which is forecast to add additional moisture across SEQLD and NENSW. Morning showers and light rain areas are possible across the Maranoa, Darling Downs & Granite Belt, northern parts of the Northern Tablelands into the Northern Rivers districts. This activity is forecast to slide East South East with additional showers and storms developing further East during the afternoon. This activity should reach the coast from the Sunshine Coast south to Coffs Harbour. There is some potential for overnight showers and rain areas. Any decent showers and storms are likely to contain amounts of small hail due to very cold air aloft.

Thursday Forecast: It remains a little uncertain between data models but the best case for rain will be as follows… The surface trough could be located along the ranges from Gayndah, Kingaroy, Toowoomba, Warwick to Grafton with moist unstable conditions to its East. (some models suggest it will be offshore).  Scattered afternoon showers and storms may develop East of the ranges across the Wide Bay, Burnett, South East Coast and Northern Rivers districts. This activity would push East and reach the coast from Bundaberg south to Grafton. 

 

Friday is also a wild card with yet another possible upper cold pool of air over NENSW and SEQLD triggering some showers and storms but we will have to wait and see if that holds or not…

Some will get more than others and a few may miss out but every drop is welcome and we need to be grateful! 

SEQLD detailed HSC in-house storm and rainfall maps are available through our membership service. With storm season fast approaching we suggest you see what we have to offer while supporting our work. Click on the image below to find out more information or to subscribe! 

3 days of shower & storm potential for SEQLD & NENSW2019-08-26T12:43:19+10:00
24 08, 2019

Showers & storms on the cards for SEQLD & NSW

2019-08-26T12:44:35+10:00


Updated 26th August 2019 please see here for latest details… 
Issued 24th August 2019. Look what we have on the forecast… Showers & storms are on the cards across parts SEQLD & parts of NSW! Above image via BSCH showing the % of models forecasting precipitation on Wednesday. 

Tuesday: Isolated showers and storms will be possible through inland areas of SEQLD (along the ranges from Yarraman to Warwick and across the Scenic Rim). Moisture and instability are pretty weak but there is still a 50% chance of these developing. Showers and some storms will be more likely along the Central and Northern NSW coast (Sydney to Newcastle showers, Taree to Byron Bay showers and storms).

Wednesday: Scattered showers and storms are likely across SEQLD in the yellow circled area. Some of these storms will also contain small hail due to very cold air above. They are expected to develop through inland areas during the early afternoon and slowly move East into the South East coast. Shower and storm activity in NSW will contract into the far North East (yellow circled area).


Given the current severe drought conditions we are pleased to see any activity forecast especially in August & September. Our new public “severe thunderstorm watch maps” are ready for public release on thunderstorm days in NENSW and SEQLD. Find out more about what a “severe thunderstorm watch” is HERE!

We predict that October will be a very active storm month across NENSW and SEQLD!

HSC premium members please keep an eye on our website forecasts from tomorrow morning as the detailed rain and storm maps will be issued for this system.
If you would like to subscribe to our premium weather service and gain access to detailed thunderstorm and rainfall forecast maps find out more about our premium weather service by clicking here > https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/ or on the image below.
 

 

Showers & storms on the cards for SEQLD & NSW2019-08-26T12:44:35+10:00
14 08, 2019

Another snow producing Polar airmass for SE Aust

2019-08-14T10:44:05+10:00


Issued 14th August 2019. After a huge polar low delivered massive amounts of snow over the weekend, negative SAM (Southern Annular Mode) is going to hang in there for another round later this week into next week. A low pressure system south of Tasmania will push a polar airmass northwards over Victoria, the ACT Southern and Central NSW this Sunday & Monday. Above image via Pivotal Weather showing the very cold air.

VICTORIA: A cold front will sweep East across Victoria with a band of showers on Sunday. Northerly winds could reach 90km hr across Alpine areas and some data suggests Thunder snow is possible on Sunday night with blizzards conditions. 20-30cms of fresh snow is forecast in the 24hrs from Sunday to Monday across the Alps. Snow levels are also forecast to drop to 700 meters across the state so some snow flurries will be possible at Ballarat and Trentham. 

ACT: Showers are forecast to develop on Sunday afternoon and continue overnight possibly into Monday. Showers will falls as snow on the ranges with 10-20cms expected on the peaks. Some brief snow flurries will be possible in Canberra early Monday morning. 

NSW: The cold front moves East across the interior on Sunday with strong cold Westerly winds developing through the Western half of the state. A band of showers and isolated storms are forecast across Southern areas which will eventually reach the Central Tablelands Sunday night. The coldest airmass arrives late Sunday night and hangs around until Midday Monday so snow will be possible on the CTs during this time. AT this stage the snow producing cold air and precipitation does NOT reach the Northern Tablelands. 

For SA the front moves through on Sunday with showers and isolated storms across the South East. In Tasmania the front moves through on Sunday and Monday with showers across the state and snow to low levels on Monday. Below image snow accumulation forecast totals via Windy.com

We produce accurate daily snow forecasts and maps across Victoria, the ACT and NSW with amounts, times and locations listed. Click here to subscribe to our membership or on the image below for more information! 

Another snow producing Polar airmass for SE Aust2019-08-14T10:44:05+10:00