Jeff

/Jeff Higgins

About Jeff Higgins

I have had a passion for weather since I was 8 years old. In 2011 I created Higgins Storm Chasing on Facebook which has now grown into a successful meteorology business.
7 08, 2019

SNOW for Northern NSW and a good chance in QLD this weekend!

2019-08-16T13:39:05+10:00


Issued 7th August 2019. A perfect forecast opportunity exists to experience SNOW on the Northern Tablelands of NSW this weekend with snow also possible in QLD on the Granite Belt! Above image: Torah Higgins enjoying the snow at Ben Lomond Northern NSW in early June this year. HSC Thomas will be chasing and reporting this snow event in Northern NSW. 

Forecast data is confidently predicting snow falls to occur on the Northern Tablelands of NSW late this Saturday into Sunday night. The places most likely to receive the best settled snow is at Guyra and Ben Lomond with between 5 and 10cms expected. Further South at Walcha and Hanging Rock near Tamworth they are forecast to get 10-15cms. Snow is also likely at Nundle, Uralla, Armidale, Glen Innes and Deepwater in NSW. Snow is also a good chance but may not settle on the ground at Tenterfield (Mt Mackenzie), Wallangarra, Ballendean, Stanthorpe, Applethorpe and Eukey in QLD. Below image snow forecast via Windy.com


With all these regions suffering from extreme drought and hardship the tourism is most welcome! Its not very far to drive to experience a white wonderland with the family from anywhere in South East Queensland. Accommodation will be in high demand at Guyra but places like Glen Innes and Tenterfield offer many options which are just a short drive away from the best snow. You can also try Dunmore Trout Waters not far from Ben Lomond. Please PRESERVE ALL WATER USAGE take bottled water or buy it locally. Below image is the best travel option to Ben Lomond NSW for the best snow opportunity. 

The current snow window of opportunity is very specific… Saturday late afternoon until Sunday night in NSW and Saturday night or Sunday early morning on the Granite Belt. Below image the chances of precipitation from Saturday 9am to Sunday 9am via OCF/BSCH

We have detailed HSC snow forecast maps and times for QLD and NSW available on our website. Subscribe for the latest up to date information here or click on the image below for more information! 

SNOW for Northern NSW and a good chance in QLD this weekend!2019-08-16T13:39:05+10:00
7 08, 2019

3 days of wild weather for SA with snow possible!

2019-08-07T10:43:23+10:00

Issued 7th August 2019. The weather is about to turn pretty wild and nasty across large parts of South Australia including Adelaide. A weak low is bringing some rain today but tomorrow a powerful cold front will open the proceedings for 3 days worth of severe weather. An incredibly cold polar airmass will arrive on Friday with snow being possible across the ranges in the South East. Above image showing the mid level polar airmass via GFS/BSCH

Rain, Storms, Hail & possible Snow: The best falls are expected across the Mt Lofty ranges due to orographic lifting with locally moderate to heavy falls possible and totals near 50mm likely. The Southern agricultural areas, Lower west coast, Central coast and South east coasts are forecast to receive 15-30mm from the system. Lighter falls of 5-15mm are forecast through the Northern agricultural areas. Showers with hail are likely across the South East of the state. Storms with hail are possible across the South East of the state.

The snow level is currently forecast at 900 meters which is just above most ranges in the South East… however when showers with hail occur they drag down the much colder air from aloft effectively lowering the snow level. Given this scenario the coldest airmass is forecast to arrive late Friday and last into Saturday. The highest chances for snow will be during this time along the highest ranges in the South East (Mt lofty). Showers will start off producing small hail at first then snow is possible for brief periods as the cold air comes down. Its definitely something worth keeping an eye on that the kids would love to experience. Below image rainfall forecast totals via windy.com

Wind: Damaging Westerly winds up to 110kmhr are forecast across the South East quarter of the state with the arrival of the cold front on Thursday afternoon. The initial front could produce raised dust across the state and a dust storm through the Murraylands, Riverland and North East districts. Winds will ease slightly on Friday but remain very strong and gusty during Friday and Saturday. 
Temperatures: COLD with a bitter wind chill of up to 10C so most places will have feels like temps in the single digits. Below image damaging winds on Thursday via Windy.com

3 days of wild weather for SA with snow possible!2019-08-07T10:43:23+10:00
6 08, 2019

4 lows to merge into 1 big one this week!

2019-08-06T12:40:36+10:00


Issued 6th August 2019. Four multiple complex low pressure systems are forecast to form into a very large polar low that will impact South East Australia from Tuesday through until Sunday this week.

The first low (10S) with a pressure of 985hpa will move East across the Southern Ocean to the South of Tasmania on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing strong winds and showers to South East SA, Tasmania and Victoria. Bloew image via Weatherzone.


A second low (10B) 1005hpa develops over South East SA near Adelaide on Wednesday and slides South East across Victoria and into Bass Straight then across Tasmania on Thursday deepening to a pressure of 985hpa. The system will produce rain and storms with hail across South East SA, rain and possible storms with hail across Victoria with moderate snow on the Alps. Rain and snow also across Tasmania. Below image via Windy.com

A third stronger low (11B) 979hpa approaches South East SA on Thursday then moves East into Bass Straight on Friday. This low will produce damaging winds to 110km hr across South East SA, Victoria and parts of NSW. Rain areas, scattered showers and storm with hail is also expected. Heavy snow and blizzards are forecast across the Alps with snow in the ACT and Central Tablelands of NSW. below image via Windy.com

This is where things get serious…

The second low 10B is forecast to be located just East of Tasmania and merges with the third low 11B on Friday to produce a very large dominant low pressure system (10T) 970hpa. The new low remains slow moving East of Tasmania during Friday, Saturday and Sunday and eventually drifts East towards New Zealand as a new high 1030hpa builds in the Bight.

The very strong pressure gradient  between the large polar low near Tasmania and the large high in the Bight will project a 100km hr polar airmass Northwards across the Southern Ocean impacting South East Australia during the 3 days. This weather system will then produce another round of strong to damaging winds, showers with hail, rain areas, storms with hail and low level snow across South East SA, Tasmania, Victoria, the ACT and NSW. Below image via Windy.com

Our Higgins premium weather service offers detailed forecasts and maps across NSW, the ACT and Victoria. These include daily rainfall and snow forecasts. Become a subscriber here to gain access and support our business. Or click on the image below to find out more details! 

4 lows to merge into 1 big one this week!2019-08-06T12:40:36+10:00
5 08, 2019

Big Polar Low To Hit South East Aust – damaging winds, heavy snow & rain!

2019-08-05T11:38:01+10:00


Issued 5th August 2019. Here comes the biggest Winter storm for 2019 as a Polar Low lines up South East Australia! This system will impact well over half of the population for 4 days so its worth taking note of. Above image the big polar low forecast position on Thursday via Pivotal. 

South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria, the ACT and NSW will all be directly impacted while Queensland will feel the affects. 

RAIN: Lets start off with rainfall because it the most important commodity right now due to the drought. The best falls will be focused across South East SA, Victoria, Tasmania and Southern inland NSW. Within those areas places such as Eastern Victoria, South East Tasmania and South East NSW are only expecting lighter falls but exact amounts in these locations will depend on the exact position of the low producing onshore winds and rain. Below image 10day rainfall forecast totals via Windy.com

SNOW: The next big result from this system will be snow with truck loads expected across the Alps, Snowy Mountains and Central / Western Highlands of Tasmania. Snow for SA (Mt Lofty) has been be dropped but showers and storms with hail are more likely. Very low level snow is forecast across Victoria and Tasmania down to 400 meters on Friday and Saturday when the coldest polar air is pushed up from down South. Forecast data is continually suggesting that Canberra will see snow falls from this system! The Central Tablelands of NSW are expected to see solid snow falls but the Northern Tablelands are only a chance for some light snow at this stage. Below image snow forecast totals via Windy.com

WIND & TEMPS: Strong to damaging winds with freezing cold conditions are a given with this system. Due to the slow moving forecast of the low both wind and temperature impacts will prolonged over about 4 days. In SA damaging winds up to 95km hr are possible on Thursday and Friday across the South East quarter. Adelaide’s top temperature will be about 13C with a 10C wind chill. In Victoria damaging winds across the state up to 90km hr are possible with gusts as high as 120km hr on the Alps during Thursday and Friday. Melbourne is going for a top of just 13C and again the wind chill will take 5 to 10C off that. In the ACT very strong cold Westerly winds should develop Thursday night and they may reach damaging strengths up to 90km hr on Friday especially on the ranges. Canberra will have bone chilling tops of just 9C with a 5 to 10C wind chill. In NSW the strong cold front with strong Westerly winds of 60 to 70km hr will rip across the state on Thursday. These winds could even stir up some dust storms inland. There are expected to reach damaging strengths of 100km hr across the South East, Central Ranges and possibly even the Northern ranges from Thursday to Saturday. Any bush fires that start could become very dangerous due to the dry conditions and very strong winds. Sydney’s top temps will drop by around 4C to 18C. Anywhere along the ranges and Tablelands will be near zero. Tasmania is also expected to receive some periods of very strong winds but these will heavily depend on the low which is forecast to be directly over the state most of the time. Hobart is going for a top of 10C. Below image total wind gusts via Windy.com
Our Higgins premium weather service offers detailed forecasts and maps across NSW, the ACT and Victoria. These include daily rainfall and snow forecasts. Become a subscriber here to gain access and support our business. Or click on the image below to find out more details! 

Big Polar Low To Hit South East Aust – damaging winds, heavy snow & rain!2019-08-05T11:38:01+10:00
1 08, 2019

Slamming SAM is coming back – more freezing weather & big snow falls for Australia

2019-08-01T12:47:16+10:00


Issued 1st August 2019. At the end of May we mentioned the Southern Annular Mode also known as the Antarctic Oscillation. It delivered big snow dumps on the Alps, snow on the Central and Northern Tablelands of NSW with snow even recorded in Queensland. During the second and third week of August, SAM is confidently forecast to dive into deep negative values! In fact it is expected to reach double the negative values we seen in early June. Brace yourselves for much more freezing, cold, windy weather and snow across South East Australia. The cold weather and frosts will also reach well into Queensland where snow can’t be ruled out! Above image via Hotham Alpine Resort. 

The forecasting range for SAM is relatively short at only 2 weeks ahead but it is far enough to gauge a trending pattern. Models are confident in a huge negative dive next week. This will allow for an increased number of deep polar low pressure systems to impact Australia and thats exactly what the pressure, temperature and snow charts are showing. Below image showing the SAM / AAO past observations (black line) and 2 week forecast via CPC. Circled in red is the deep negative forecast values for next week. 


So what should we expect? A period of frequent very strong cold fronts, multiple polar lows, big snow dumps on the Alps and Tasmania with blizzard conditions. Snow an increased risk across Central and Northern NSW possibly reaching QLD. Increased rainfall across South East SA, Victoria and Tasmania. Very strong cold winds across South East Australia with increasing frosts and some severe frosts. In general a big finish to Winter. Below image: 2nd week snow forecast via GFS / Tropical Tidbits showing big snow falls on the Alps and Tasmania with snow on the Northern and Central Tablelands of NSW. 

A huge polar low system is currently forecast to hit South East Australia from Thursday 8th to Sunday 11th August. It could bring widespread damaging winds, rain, very cold conditions, a big Alpine snow dump with snow extending further North across the ACT and NSW. That will be followed by widespread frosts. Some peaks could be looking at up to 1 meter of snow just from this first system alone.

We provide detailed snow forecasts and maps for VIC, ACT, NSW and QLD on our HSC premium weather service here> https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/

Slamming SAM is coming back – more freezing weather & big snow falls for Australia2019-08-01T12:47:16+10:00
12 07, 2019

NSW Central Tablelands snow

2019-07-12T18:56:26+10:00


Issued 12th July 2019. Snow is likely on the Central Tablelands of NSW for most of tomorrow (Saturday).

A very cold polar airmass will move North from Victoria tonight and across the South East quarter of NSW during Saturday. Minimum temperatures of zero are forecast across the CTs early Saturday morning with early showers expected. These showers will fall as snow above 1000 meters ASL and possibly as low as 750 meters bringing Bathurst into contention for possible snow. Orange, Oberon, Crookwell, Blayney, Jenolan Caves and Binda should all expected to see snow tomorrow with 2-5cms of coverage on the cards.

Once it starts in the morning snow showers should continue on the higher elevations all day due to lingering cold air and precipitation.

Top temps of only 4-9C are forecast but with a 60kmhr wind chill factored in the feels like will be sub zero all day. Further south the ACT ranges will also see snow above 800 meters. NO SNOW is forecast on the Northern Tablelands of NSW this time round due to dry air.

It will be also be very cold across VIC, ACT, TAS and NSW forecast blog here > https://higginsstormchasing.com/freezing-temperatures-coming-for-se-aus/
Snow will also hammer TAS and the ALPS forecast blog here > https://higginsstormchasing.com/round-2-for-tas-vic-nsw-begins-friday/
Become a HSC weather subscriber for detailed snow forecasts and maps here > https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/

NSW Central Tablelands snow2019-07-12T18:56:26+10:00
4 07, 2019

WIDESPREAD RAIN FORECAST FOR CENTRAL QLD INCLUDING INLAND AREAS

2019-07-04T11:30:52+10:00

WIDESPREAD RAIN FORECAST FOR CENTRAL QLD INCLUDING INLAND AREAS – Moderate to heavy falls possible for the Central Coast, Capricornia and ranges between Proserpine to Gladstone particularly around Mackay during Thursday night and Friday.
*Showers and rain areas also on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Widespread falls of 25-50mm through the Central inland areas with 100-200mm possible along the coast and ranges. Flash flooding is possible some minor river flooding also possible.

*Scattered showers along the coast from Gladstone south to Coolangatta extending inland to the ranges from Thursday to Monday. Totals of 10-25mm expected.
*Showers and rain areas possible on Saturday and Monday across Southern inland QLD. Potential falls ranging from 10-25mm.
Above image: 5 day rainfall forecast total via ECMWF / Windy.com
 
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WIDESPREAD RAIN FORECAST FOR CENTRAL QLD INCLUDING INLAND AREAS2019-07-04T11:30:52+10:00
26 06, 2019

SEQLD Coast drenched with more to come today!

2019-06-26T10:01:54+10:00


Issued 9am 26th June 2019. Parts of the South East QLD Coast have been drenched with up to 135mm in 24hrs. Scattered showers and rain areas with locally moderate falls to continue today! Above image: 9am radar via Weatherzone.com

We had forecast 10 to 25mm for coastal areas in the South East on Tuesday however the system has delivered much heavier falls earlier than expected. An upper low of cold air is over South East QLD and it is being fed by a deep onshore South East wind flow. When you get 2 systems come together like this the result is over scattered showers and rain areas especially along the coast. 

The below image from BOM shows the 24hr rainfall totals from 9am Tuesday to 9am Wednesday across South East QLD. Red dots = 100mm + with 6 stations recording over 100mm. Bells Creek topped the count with 135mm, Pelican Waters 100mm, Yandina 101mm and Coolum West 109mm. A majority of locations across the Sunshine Coast have recorded 50 to 100mm with rain increasing on Wednesday morning. The Gold Coast, Coolangatta and the Tweed Coast have also recorded some moderate falls. Coomera Shores 51mm, Coolangatta 61mm, Tweed Heads 56mm, Byron Bay 79mm and Ballina 51mm. Ballina also recorded 20mm Monday and 34mm Tuesday with their 3 day total nearing 100mm. Across the greater Brisbane area 10-25mm has been recored so far with more to come. 

The wet weather is set to continue during Wednesday as the upper low and onshore flow reach maximum intensity. Rain areas with moderate to locally heavy fall are likely across the South East Coast especially near the coast from Fraser Island south to Coolangatta. Some locations could see another 100mm over the next 24hrs. 
Scattered showers and light rain areas are also expected across the Wide Bay and Burnett, through inland parts of the South East Coast and also extending further inland across the Darling Downs and Granite Belt. Totals in these Northern and inland areas will however be much lighter with up to 10mm possible. Below image showing the upper low with cold air and clockwise rotating winds over SEQLD via Windy.com

We have had the South East Coast rain forecast and maps current for 3 to 4 days now for our premium members website. For detailed and accurate forecasts subscribe to HSC here! 

SEQLD Coast drenched with more to come today!2019-06-26T10:01:54+10:00
19 06, 2019

Freezing weather for the rest of the week

2019-06-19T12:19:06+10:00

Issued 19th June 2019. Weather conditions will become bitterly cold across large parts of Australia this week as a polar airmass surges North. Over half of the country will experience below average temperatures. Above image showing below average temperatures on Friday via Tropical Tidbits

Before the prospect of a big snow dump is considered forget it. While this system is very cold sadly it is also very dry with only around 5cms of fresh snow for the Alps this week.

A very cold mid to upper level polar airmass will be projected Northwards across South East Australia on Thursday thanks to a slow moving high just west of Tasmania. The polar airmass remains persistent until Monday causing a big reduction in minimum and maximum temperatures across large parts of Australia. Below image the large polar airmass via Windy.com

Widespread morning frosts will develop for the rest of the week through inland South Aust, Victoria, New South Wales, the ACT, Southern Northern Territory and Southern inland Queensland. Severe frosts are expected across the Central and Southern Tablelands of NSW including the ACT where minimums will drop to -4C or less. Ground temperatures could reach a bone chilling -10C. Below image showing minimum temperatures with frost areas circled via OCF/BSCH. 
Cold and gusty Southerly winds will keep maximum temperatures below 15C across South East SA, Tasmania, Victoria, most of NSW and Southern inland QLD for the rest of this week. Adelaide maximum temperatures are 12 to 14C, Hobart 11 to 12C, Melbourne 12 to 14C, Canberra 10 to 12C and Sydney 16C. The much cooler weather and morning frosts will extend well into QLD. Coastal districts including the tropics south from Cairns will be in the low 20s while across the Southern inland it will be very cold. Toowoomba 15C, Charleville 15 to 17C and Birdsville 17C are all below average for this time of year. Below image maximum temperatures on Friday below 15C via OCF/BSCH.

While the start of Winter has been fairly mild the rest of this week will remain us how cold it can get. Much sure you have the Winter woollies ready along with plenty of firewood! HSC daily forecasts and maps for Victoria, NSW, ACT and QLD available on our subscription service here! 

Freezing weather for the rest of the week2019-06-19T12:19:06+10:00
11 06, 2019

Follow Up Rain For SA, VIC & Parts Of NSW

2019-06-11T14:08:55+10:00

Issued 11th June 2019. Widespread follow up rain is expected on Wednesday and Thursday across the South East quarter of South Australia, Western and Central Victoria and parts of NSW. Above image: ECWMF rainfall forecast via Windy.com

South Australia: It’s been a quiet rainfall start to June across South Australia with only 6mm being recorded in Adelaide. The June long term rainfall average is 80mm so there is some catching up to do this month. Early on Wednesday morning a string surface trough will develop a band of Rain from the North West down across the West Coast. This feature is forecast to increase in intensity as it progresses East across South East SA during Wednesday. Widespread falls of 10-20mm are forecast south of Roxby Downs and East of Ceduna. Some isolated higher totals of 20-30mm are possible around Adelaide and the ranges. A few showers are expected on Thursday as the system clears East.

Victoria: The Southern half of Victoria has had a pretty good start to June with widespread rain occurring from the low last week. Melbourne is up to half of their June rainfall average of 50mm. East Gippsland has also gained some healthy falls this month so far with around 25-50mm recorded. The Alps have had their best start to a season in 19 years with a snow depth of about 75cms. Unfortunately this week considerable snow melt will occur due to warm conditions and a lack of any cold fronts. 
On Wednesday morning a surface trough and cold front will combine to produce a band of scattered showers and rain across Western districts during the morning. This activity will spread further East to be through Central districts during the afternoon and through the North East Alps during the evening. The best falls of 25-50mm are forecast across the Alps of rain. Widespread 10-20mm is forecast through Western and Central districts. Unfortunately the rain shadow from the Alps will mean that Eastern parts of the state largely miss out. 

 

New South Wales: In NSW falls will be much lighter. A band of showers and light areas will move East through Southern inland and Western districts on Wednesday before contracting to the Central inland and Northern inland on Thursday as a very weak system. There is potential for a low pressure system to develop across Northern and North East NSW on Sunday into Monday brining rain and storms. Higgins Storm Chasing rainfall, snow and storm forecasts available on our subscription service here! 

 

Follow Up Rain For SA, VIC & Parts Of NSW2019-06-11T14:08:55+10:00