About Jeff HigginsI have had a passion for weather since I was 8 years old. In 2011 I created Higgins Storm Chasing on Facebook which has now grown into a successful meteorology business.
Issued 23rd Sept 2019. Parts of Central Australia has been receiving rain and storms today with more to follow… It has been 4 months since Alice Springs recored more than 1mm of rain! Above image: Radar, Satellite and Lightning via Weatherzone.com.au
An upper level trough of cold air has made its way into the Centre of Australia from down south. This feature is causing widespread instability through the interior of WA just south of Fitzroy Crossing and Halls Creek while extending East into the Central West and South West of NT. Light rain has been falling for most of the day just West and South of Alice Springs. Scattered showers and storms have fired up across the Northern Interior of WA. 6mm was recorded to 9am this morning at Yuendumu to the North West of Alice Springs and 10mm at Ruby Downs just south of Halls Creek. While Alice Springs itself has only had a light shower so far, heavy cloud cover has produced a cool day with just 16C recorded so far.
The system is forecast to move towards the East / South East on Monday night into Tuesday. Yulara and Uluru should see some overnight rain and maybe even a storm tonight then some light rain tomorrow. Alice Springs has rain forecast tomorrow with up to 10mm expected which is there entire average rainfall amount for September. Locally higher falls to 25mm are possible across the South West quarter of NT during Tuesday. Below image: 3 day rainfall forecast via Windy.com
By Wednesday the system will have weakened to nothing with no further rainfall expected for the next week.
Issued 16th Sept 2019. Tomorrow (Tuesday) is potentially a risk of severe weather across parts of South East QLD and North East NSW as a strong trough moves through. Above image: Wind gusts via Windy.com with weather risks highlighted by HSC.
South East and Southern inland QLD: For areas across the Eastern Darling Downs, Granite Belt there is up to a 50% chance for some isolated high based showers and thunderstorms to develop. These showers and storm chances increase to around 70-90% across the South East Coast daily South of the Sunshine Coast though they should still remain isolated hit n miss. Any storms that develop will have a moderate risk of producing damaging winds over 90km hr due to very strong mid level winds being dragged down to the surface. If stronger storms do develop there is also a low to moderate risk of large hail between 2-4cms. Lightning will pose a bush fire starting risk.
Maximum temperatures 29-33C are forecast with very low humidity levels. A strong North Westerly wind flow is expected across the Darling Downs and Granite Belt during the morning with a strong a gusty South West wind change developing during the afternoon. The combination of heat, low humidity and strong winds will cause SEVERE bush fire dangers. Winds East of the ranges will be moderate North West to North Easterly.
North East and Northern inland NSW: For areas along and East of the ranges there is up to a 90% chance of scattered showers and storms developing between Port Macquarie and Lismore. Any storms that develop will have a moderate risk of producing damaging winds over 90km hr due to very strong mid level winds being dragged down to the surface. If stronger storms do develop, which is higher possibility due to higher moisture, a moderate risk of large hail between 2-4cms will exist. Lightning will also pose a bush fire starting risk. Very warm, dry and windy conditions will cause a very high fire danger across the Northern Slopes and New England districts.
Lets hope that new fires don’t flare up again and that some people get some rain! Detailed in-house Higgins rainfall and thunderstorm risk maps are available for SEQLD and NENSW. Click here or on the image below for more information and to subscribe!
Issued 15th Sept 2019. New South Wales is in for a mixed weather bag early this week with rain, snow, storms and strong winds on the forecast! A cold front will move North across Southern districts on Monday before developing into a Low across Central East districts on Tuesday. The low is expected to briefly intensify just off the NSW coast on Tuesday night. Above image: rainfall via Windy.com
The heaviest falls of 50-100mm are forecast along the coast from Newcastle, Gosford, Sydney, Wollongong, to Ulladulla between Monday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. 10-25mm is forecast through Central inland parts of NSW with lighter falls of 5-10mm across Southern inland areas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the North East quarter of the state on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could be severe with damaging winds due to strong in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Those areas directly under storm activity could receive up to 20mm of rain.
5-10cms of snow is likely across the Alps on Monday night and Tuesday morning. Model data is continually suggesting possible heavier snow falls of 7-15cms across higher elevations on the Southern and Central Tablelands of NSW during Monday night and Tuesday morning. This snow is highly subject to low level temperatures remaining cold enough… given the current data it could easily fall as rain and sleet instead of snow but it will be interesting to see what happens!
WINDS & TEMPERATURES:
Maximum temperatures will be well above average across the Northern 2/3rds of NSW on Monday before the arrival of the cold front. Northern districts will see maximum temperatures of 30-34C. On Tuesday an 8-12C temperature drop will push across all districts accept the far North East. The Central Tablelands will see max temps of just 6-10C on Tuesday with most of the state struggling to reach 20C.
On Monday winds will be very warm from the North West across the Northern half of the state while the Southern half will have much cooler Southerlies developing. During Tuesday coastal districts South from Newcastle will see South East winds become very gusty as the low develops. Central inland will experience strong South East winds as well while Northern inland areas are expected to see strong South West winds. These strong South West winds may kick up areas of dust on Tuesday afternoon.
Detailed Higgins in-house rain, storm and snow maps are available to premium members. Find out more or subscribe HERE or by clicking on the image below!
Issued 26th August 2019. Some locations across SEQLD and NENSW could see 3 days of repeat showers and storms between Tuesday and Thursday this week. A number of locations could see totals of 10-25mm during this time. Above image: next 5 day rainfall totals via ECMWF at Windy.com
There still remains some uncertainty between various forecast models for rainfall totals and the Thursday / Friday daily forecast however most locations in the circled area are likely to see some rain this week.
An upper trough with cold pool of air is expected to enter South East QLD and North East NSW on Tuesday afternoon causing instability. The cold pool will then be located right over both areas on Wednesday and Thursday with increased instability. Thats great upper support but the focus needs to be placed on the surface and mid level trough which delivers moist conditions to its east needed for rainfall.
Tuesday Forecast: The surface trough is expected to be located along the ranges in SEQLD & NENSW with moist unstable conditions in its vicinity. Isolated afternoon showers and storms are forecast to develop along the ranges from about Kingaroy through Toowoomba and Warwick down to Dorrigo in NENSW (Burnett, Eastern Downs, Granite Belt & Northern Tablelands). They are forecast to travel slowly East and could reach the coast South of Brisbane to Coffs Harbour late in the afternoon.
Wednesday Forecast: The surface trough is expected to be located through Southern inland QLD down into North East NSW from Tambo through St George, Goondiwindi, to Coffs Harbour with moist unstable conditions to its east. There is also a mid level trough which is forecast to add additional moisture across SEQLD and NENSW. Morning showers and light rain areas are possible across the Maranoa, Darling Downs & Granite Belt, northern parts of the Northern Tablelands into the Northern Rivers districts. This activity is forecast to slide East South East with additional showers and storms developing further East during the afternoon. This activity should reach the coast from the Sunshine Coast south to Coffs Harbour. There is some potential for overnight showers and rain areas. Any decent showers and storms are likely to contain amounts of small hail due to very cold air aloft.
Thursday Forecast: It remains a little uncertain between data models but the best case for rain will be as follows… The surface trough could be located along the ranges from Gayndah, Kingaroy, Toowoomba, Warwick to Grafton with moist unstable conditions to its East. (some models suggest it will be offshore). Scattered afternoon showers and storms may develop East of the ranges across the Wide Bay, Burnett, South East Coast and Northern Rivers districts. This activity would push East and reach the coast from Bundaberg south to Grafton.
Friday is also a wild card with yet another possible upper cold pool of air over NENSW and SEQLD triggering some showers and storms but we will have to wait and see if that holds or not…
Some will get more than others and a few may miss out but every drop is welcome and we need to be grateful!
SEQLD detailed HSC in-house storm and rainfall maps are available through our membership service. With storm season fast approaching we suggest you see what we have to offer while supporting our work. Click on the image below to find out more information or to subscribe!
Updated 26th August 2019 please see here for latest details…
Issued 24th August 2019. Look what we have on the forecast… Showers & storms are on the cards across parts SEQLD & parts of NSW! Above image via BSCH showing the % of models forecasting precipitation on Wednesday.
Tuesday: Isolated showers and storms will be possible through inland areas of SEQLD (along the ranges from Yarraman to Warwick and across the Scenic Rim). Moisture and instability are pretty weak but there is still a 50% chance of these developing. Showers and some storms will be more likely along the Central and Northern NSW coast (Sydney to Newcastle showers, Taree to Byron Bay showers and storms).
Wednesday: Scattered showers and storms are likely across SEQLD in the yellow circled area. Some of these storms will also contain small hail due to very cold air above. They are expected to develop through inland areas during the early afternoon and slowly move East into the South East coast. Shower and storm activity in NSW will contract into the far North East (yellow circled area).
Given the current severe drought conditions we are pleased to see any activity forecast especially in August & September. Our new public “severe thunderstorm watch maps” are ready for public release on thunderstorm days in NENSW and SEQLD. Find out more about what a “severe thunderstorm watch” is HERE!
We predict that October will be a very active storm month across NENSW and SEQLD!
HSC premium members please keep an eye on our website forecasts from tomorrow morning as the detailed rain and storm maps will be issued for this system.
If you would like to subscribe to our premium weather service and gain access to detailed thunderstorm and rainfall forecast maps find out more about our premium weather service by clicking here > https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/ or on the image below.
Issued 14th August 2019. After a huge polar low delivered massive amounts of snow over the weekend, negative SAM (Southern Annular Mode) is going to hang in there for another round later this week into next week. A low pressure system south of Tasmania will push a polar airmass northwards over Victoria, the ACT Southern and Central NSW this Sunday & Monday. Above image via Pivotal Weather showing the very cold air.
VICTORIA: A cold front will sweep East across Victoria with a band of showers on Sunday. Northerly winds could reach 90km hr across Alpine areas and some data suggests Thunder snow is possible on Sunday night with blizzards conditions. 20-30cms of fresh snow is forecast in the 24hrs from Sunday to Monday across the Alps. Snow levels are also forecast to drop to 700 meters across the state so some snow flurries will be possible at Ballarat and Trentham.
ACT: Showers are forecast to develop on Sunday afternoon and continue overnight possibly into Monday. Showers will falls as snow on the ranges with 10-20cms expected on the peaks. Some brief snow flurries will be possible in Canberra early Monday morning.
NSW: The cold front moves East across the interior on Sunday with strong cold Westerly winds developing through the Western half of the state. A band of showers and isolated storms are forecast across Southern areas which will eventually reach the Central Tablelands Sunday night. The coldest airmass arrives late Sunday night and hangs around until Midday Monday so snow will be possible on the CTs during this time. AT this stage the snow producing cold air and precipitation does NOT reach the Northern Tablelands.
For SA the front moves through on Sunday with showers and isolated storms across the South East. In Tasmania the front moves through on Sunday and Monday with showers across the state and snow to low levels on Monday. Below image snow accumulation forecast totals via Windy.com