Jeff

/Jeff Higgins

About Jeff Higgins

I have had a passion for weather since I was 8 years old. In 2011 I created Higgins Storm Chasing on Facebook which has now grown into a successful meteorology business.
17 06, 2018

UPDATED Snow Likely For Northern NSW!

Issued 9am 17th June 2018. Snow is now likely to fall on the Northern Tablelands of NSW during Sunday and Monday. Above image: Snow at Ben Lomond near Guyra NSW via Higgins Storm Chasing.

A very cold air mass is pushing its way North across NSW producing widespread snow. Good snow flurries have been recorded on Sunday morning across the Central Tablelands of NSW at Orange and Oberon. Initially our snow forecast was limited to areas around Walcha and the Barrington Tops however moisture forecasts have now increased further North. 

A very cold air mass is forecast to reach the Northern Tablelands of NSW on Sunday afternoon through Sunday night and during Monday. Low level moisture forecasts have increased which is likely to lead to snow falls above 1100 meters. Around 2cms of snow is expected at Guyra, Ben Lomond, Black Mountain and Uralla while slightly higher falls of 2 – 4cm could occur around Walcha, Hanging Rock and the Barrington Tops. Below forecast via Higgins Storm Chasing premium, click here to subscribe! 

NORTH NSW SNOW UPDATED17TH18THJUNE2018

Due to to limited amount of snow expected to settle on the ground long drives down to see the snow may not be worthwhile so consider this before heading off. 

No snow is expected to fall further North at places like Tenterfield / Mt Mackenzie, Stanthorpe or areas further North… cold enough but no moisture. 

14 06, 2018

Over Half Of Queensland About To Freeze!

Issued 14th June 2018. The coldest days and nights this year are about to grip over half of Queensland as a massive cold front sweeps across the state. Widespread morning frosts will freeze large parts of the state possibly edging into the Western Brisbane suburbs! Above image credit: Chris McFerran SE Qld Weather Photography 

What has been a mild Winter so far is all about to change this weekend. A massive strong cold front which will bring Snow to low levels down South will reach Queensland on Sunday. NOTE – It will easily be cold enough for snow on the Northern Tablelands of NSW however there is ONE BIG PROBLEM… No moisture = No snow. 

A bitterly cold and gusty South West wind will develop during Sunday across Southern and South East districts. 

Monday will be easily the coldest day of year so far and may even be the coldest this Winter as the South Westerly winds push right across the state! The Darling Downs and Granite Belt won’t get above 15c but this will be nothing compared to the wind chill factor. If you’re outside in Toowoomba on Monday the feels like will be less than 5C all day.

Brisbane, Ipswich, Gold and Sunshine Coasts, Gympie, Bundaberg, Emerald and Longreach are all going for a top temp of just 18C on Monday then take at least 5C off for the wind chill outside. 

Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton and Mt Isa will all feel the chill in the air as well. Below image Higgins Storm Chasing maximum temperatures on Monday. (Click on image for high resolution) 

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Widespread morning frosts are likely to develop through the Southern inland on Sunday before pushing close to the coast and further North on Monday and Tuesday. Severe frosts are expected across the Granite Belt, Roma and Mitchell where minimums could drop to -5C of more. Heavy frost is also likely across the Darling Downs, Warrego and Maranoa districts. 

Frosts could reach into parts of  Western Brisbane and the Western Gold Coast suburbs. They are also likely to push as far North as Moranbah and Longreach. Similar conditions are also forecast on Tuesday. Below image Higgins Storm Chasing 3 day frost risk from Sunday to Tuesday. (click image for high resolution)

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The gusty South West winds will ease on Wednesday and turn more Southerly which will allow temperatures to recover by a few degrees. Stay safe and warm everyone! ~ Jeff Higgins ~ 
MEDIA: Do not republish any content (images or text) without permission.

15 05, 2018

Space Station Visible Over Brisbane, Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne!

Issued for Thursday 17th May 2018. Be sure to look up in the sky on Thursday night shortly after sunset and show the kids! The ISS or International Space Station will make a visible pass directly over South East Australia for 6 minutes at each location. Above image via ISS astroviewer.

The following times are for South East QLD and North East NSW districts. Beginning at 5:48pm this the ISS will start to be seen in the South West sky while heading towards the North East. At 5:52pm it will be passing directly over North East NSW. By 5:55pm it will vanish again off in a North East direction over the Coral Sea.
Sydney and Canberra beginning at 5:47pm this the ISS will start to be seen in the South West sky while heading towards the North East. At 5:50pm it will be passing directly over Central inland NSW. By 5:53pm it will vanish again off in a North East direction.
Melbourne 
begins at 5:45pm and the ISS will start to be seen in the South West sky while heading towards the North East. At 5:48pm it will be passing directly over Central Victoria. By 5:52pm it will vanish again off in a North East direction.


For other locations and exact times please click on this link and use the search box! 

These times are about 25 to 40 minutes after sunset which is the best time to view the ISS due to sunlight being reflected off the craft. It will look like a bright star moving across the sky and can be easily seen by eye. There is some cloud cover forecast across Victoria though NSW, ACT and Southern / South East QLD are expecting clear skies. 

 

ISS Fun Facts 

• It travels at 27,600km hr or 276 x faster than a car going along the highway!
• It orbits around the earth 15.5 times a day or once every 92 minutes! 
• It weighs 419 tons or equivalent to 279 family cars!
• The ISS is bigger than a football field – 108 meters wide x 72 meters long and 20 meters high! 
• There are 6 people on board ATM which is maximum capacity! 
• It has been up there for 19 and a half years and has gone around the world over 100,000 times! 
• It flies between 330km and 435km above the earth and falls closer to the earth by 2km every month!
• Expedition 55 is the 55th expedition which began upon the departure of Soyuz MS-06 on February 27, 2018. Anton Shkaplerov, Scott D. Tingle and Norishige Kanai were transferred from Expedition 54, with Anton Shkaplerov taking the commander role. They are currently in space.

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An actual photo of the International Space Station via NASA

10 05, 2018

Hobart Could Break 177 Year Rainfall Record

Issued 10th May 2018. With heavy rainfall of 50 to 100mm forecast during the next 24 to 48 hours, Hobart could break its 177 year daily rainfall record. Above rainfall forecast via Windy.com

A deep low pressure system is developing over the state on Thursday which is forecast to move East and be located North East of Tasmania on Friday morning. Hobart is likely to see rainfall increase with moderate to locally heavy falls during Thursday and Friday as deep strong South East winds drag high amounts of moisture across the coast.

The May daily rainfall record at Botanical Gardens in Hobart is 49.5mm set back in 1973, records began here in 1841!

Nearby at Ellerslie Road in Hobart the record is 46.7mm set back in 1958, records began at this location in 1882. 

This system certainly has the potential to set new rainfall records in Hobart so we will just have to wait and see if that actually happens. 

Damaging winds are expected to greatly increase late Thursday as the low moves East and deepens. These winds will come from a different direction than people are used to in Tasmania. Instead of being the typical South West to West they will be South to South East straight off the coast. Wind gusts may reach 100km hr in Hobart with higher gusts to 125km hr across elevated areas. Below image showing wind gusts via Windy.com
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20cm of snow is expected across Central districts above 900m during Thursday. 

Most of Eastern half of Tasmania is set to receive a drenching along with strong to damaging winds over the next 2 days. The system moves North East along the NSW coast on Saturday which will ease conditions across Tasmania. 

 

 

9 05, 2018

Cold Blast On The Way For South Australia!

Issued 9th May 2018. South East South Australia including Adelaide will feel a Winter like cold blast on Thursday and Friday this week. Adelaide is heading for a chilly top of 16C on Thursday with an extra 5C less for wind chill factor. This system will bring an end to the above average Autumn temperatures experienced so far. Above image maximum temperatures via BSCH.

A deep low pressure system is moving North East across the Eastern Bight on Wednesday afternoon which is forecast to develop further in Bass Straight during Thursday. A very strong cold Southerly airmass will push across South East South Australia with wind gusts between 60 and 80km hr. 

Showers and possible isolated inland storms are likely to develop on Thursday, both could contain small hail due to very cold upper level air. Rainfall totals are only expected to be 5 to 15mm at best unfortunately. Below image showing very strong Southerly winds in red and purple during Thursday via Windy.com

 

 

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Minimum temperatures will drop to between 4 and 7C across inland parts of the South East though frosts are unlikely at this stage. 

Very large swell of 4 to 6 meters is also expected to develop along the South East Coast from Kangaroo Island to the Victorian border. Wave heights of 2 to 2.7 meters are forecast in open waters of the Spencer Gulf and St Vincent Gulf. This large swell will begin to ease during Friday. 

9 05, 2018

Big Low To Hit Tasmania With Heavy Rain, Damaging Winds And Snow!

Issued 9th May 2018. A big low pressure system is forecast to impact large parts of Tasmania on Thursday and Friday this week bringing SEVERE weather with it. Hobart the states capital is expected to see damaging winds up to 100km hr along with heavy rain up to 100mm which may lead to flash flooding. Above image showing rainfall forecast totals across Tasmania from the system via Weather.us

A cold front will cross the state today bringing strong winds and showers before a deep cut off low develops on Thursday and passes directly over Tasmania. The low then deepens further just to the East of the state late Thursday and during Friday.

Strong to damaging South to South East winds are forecast to develop across Southern districts including Hobart late on Thursday before spreading state wide during Friday. Wind gusts along the coast are expected to reach 100km hr while elevated areas may see gusts upper to 120km hr. 

Due to the South East onshore flow, rain areas with moderate to locally heavy falls are likely to develop across the Eastern half of the state on Thursday afternoon then continue into Friday. The South East quarter of the state including Hobart has 50 to 100mm of rain forecast during the 2 days. This may cause some flash flooding, river, creek and stream rises. Most other parts such as the North East, Central and West are likely to see 20 to 40mm while the North West may pick up around 15mm. Below image showing the rain in blue and snow in yellow / white on Thursday night via Meteo.
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Maximum temperatures will plummet down to 7C in Central areas and less than 15C is expected across the rest of the state on Thursday, Friday and Saturday as the cold air gets forced up from the South. Snow is also forecast down to 800 meters with the Central Plateau area likely to see falls of up to 20cms. 

Conditions are set to slowly improve on Saturday with rain easing to showers and winds dropping down to around 50km hr in the afternoon. Below image showing the low and winds at 7am on Friday via BSCH.
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2 05, 2018

Near Normal No ICE AGE This Winter For QLD

Issued May 2nd 2018. The 3 month Winter outlook temperatures across Queensland are confidently forecast by global models to be near normal. Rainfall is expected to be slightly below average across large parts of the state, especially Eastern districts. Above image: 3 month Winter temperature forecast showing very slightly cooler conditions through inland parts, very slightly above average in the South East and near normal across remaining districts via Tropical Tidbits.

With Winter just one month away the big question on everyones lips is “how cold is it going to be?” Despite the incredible claims of “a record cold Winter with snow where it has never snowed before” from a media proclaimed climate expert in Brisbane, this is highly unlikely to occur. At Higgins Storm Chasing we do not use sunspot activity to produce long range forecasts, these extreme claims will need to be proven a number of times here in Australia before we even consider it. 

After well above temperatures occurred across the state during April, conditions are now cooling quickly back to near normal during May. All the humidity is almost gone with days and nights becoming much cooler now. We expect the first frosts to develop across Southern inland parts of the state later this month. Sea surface temperatures around Queensland have also now cooled to near normal. 

During June, July and August, Winter temperatures across Queensland are expected to be near normal just like most other years. There are negligible areas of slightly above and below however these are less than 0.5C. There will be extensive frosts through Central and Southern inland which are likely to edge close to Brisbane the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast at times. Some frosts are also likely on a few mornings across the North Tropical tablelands. 
We may see a few sleet and snow falls on the Granite Belt this year but this will come down to extreme cold pools with the right required moisture levels. The coldest locations will be across Southern inland QLD where minimums should get down to -5C or even colder in some locations with South West wind chill factors of below 10C on some days. 

The second biggest question is rainfall…

 

Despite widespread flooding through parts of Western and Northern Queensland during the wet season, large parts of the state recorded below average rainfall. There were good showers storms and rain areas around but they remained hit n miss with very little follow up. Sadly this trend is likely to continue inland with dry conditions spreading to coastal regions during Winter. Below image: rainfall forecast anomaly for July with June and August showing similar values via Weather.us
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Near normal rainfall is forecast across the Western half of the state during Winter (which isn’t much in the gauge). Below average rainfall is forecast across the Eastern half of the state which could mean around 50mm less over the 3 months. The equatorial Pacific Ocean has warmed to neutral ENSO conditions (neither La Nina or El Nino) which is forecast to remain unchanged. The IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) is showing forecast signs of going into a positive phase during Winter which can increase rainfall to above average across Southern parts of Australia. This is unlikely to have any impact on Queensland’s rainfall though we will monitor the situation for changes. 

So overall Winter across the state this year is forecast to be just the same as most other years… Mostly fine and dry everyday with sunny mild days and cool nights. Morning frosts will feature across the Central, Southern and South East inland. Morning Fog patches will also become frequent, tending thick at times across the South East. 
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23 04, 2018

Another very warm April day in SA

Issued 23rd April 2018. Yet another very warm to hot day well above average temperatures is expected across South Australia today. Above image via BSCH.

A surface trough will drag very warm to hot North West winds down across the state on Monday. Maximum temperatures are forecast to be up to 10C above the April average across the state. Adelaide is headed for a top temp of 31C while further inland widespread temps between 33 to 35C are expected.

A cooler change will push East across the Western half of the state during the afternoon producing some showers and storms. The change is forecast to reach Adelaide at around 5pm. 

During Tuesday the cooler Southerly winds will spread through the Southern half of the state but temps will remain high through the North East. Some showers and isolated storms are forecast across the Southern half due to the trough. Adelaide will cool to 26C on Tuesday then 21C on Wednesday. 

17 04, 2018

Cooler Wet Weather For SEQLD

Issued 17th April 2018. After a run of above average temperatures and clear blue skies, Queensland’s South East Coast is expected to end the week with cooler wet weather. Above image 5 day rainfall forecast totals via Windy.com Green = 10 – 25mm, Brown = 5 – 10mm.

A very warm day is expected today with Brisbane and Ipswich headed for a top of 31C, the Gold and Sunshine Coasts won’t be far behind on 30C. During the afternoon a South East wind change is forecast to develop with gusts up to 45km  hour along the coast. 

On Wednesday winds turn more deeper onshore from the South East dragging in additional moisture while an Upper Trough of cold air moves overhead causing instability. Scattered afternoon showers and the slight chance of an inland storm are likely to develop across the South East Coast. Falls to 9am Thursday of between 10 to 20mm are forecast along the coast decreasing to around 5mm inland along the Great Dividing Range. Maximum temperatures will drop by up to 5C compared on previous days with tops around 27C.

During Thursday scattered showers are likely to continue across the South East Coast due to the onshore wind flow along with the chance of a few inland storms during the afternoon. 24 hour totals up to 15mm are expected along with continued cooler maximum temperatures of 26C.
A stronger trough moves through Southern inland QLD across the Warrego and Maranoa which is likely to produce scattered showers and storms during the afternoon. Some of this activity could push East onto the Darling Downs during the evening.

For Friday the instability increases further across most of the South East due to a new Upper Trough of cold air which is likely to result in further showers along the coast with showers and storms through South East and Southern inland districts. 

Across the weekend unstable conditions are forecast to remain in place with further showers and isolated storms likely across the South East quarter of the state. 
Detailed rainfall and storm forecasts and maps for all of QLD are offered through our Premium Membership service. Subscribe here! 

28 03, 2018

Queensland Easter Forecast 2018

Issued 28th March 2018. With plenty of media hype and scaremongering forecasts for Easter here is the current outlook from now until Tuesday 3rd of April 2018. Above image: Total 6 day rainfall forecast TOTAL from Wednesday to next Tuesday. 

EX TC Nora a weak low is located in the Southern Gulf of Carpentaria on Wednesday moving quickly West. The system poses NO THREAT to QLD and the NT with some moderate winds and showers expected across the Gulf.

EX TC Iris a low pressure system is 680km North East of Fraser Island moving towards the South West. The system is NOT forecast to re develop into a cyclone. The low is forecast to move South West during Thursday before turning towards the North West on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. It MAY near the Central to North QLD Coast between Mackay and Cairns on Monday and Tuesday but there is a lot of uncertainty of this scenario.

An increase in swell and strong South East winds is expected along the South East Coast including Fraser Island on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Showers are also likely to continue along the South East Coast from Saturday to Tuesday. 6 days totals around 50mm expected on the Sunshine Coast and Fraser Island tending to around 25mm for Brisbane and the Gold Coast with even less inland. 

Central Coast districts between Fraser Island and Mackay strong South East winds and scattered showers are expected from Friday until Tuesday as the system moves past well offshore. Most 5 day rainfall totals are forecast to be between 25 to 50mm here.

Remaining Central Coast to North Coasts districts between Mackay and Cooktown will HIGHLY depend on the exact movements of the low during Monday and Tuesday. At this stage the most likely scenario is an increase in strong South East winds and showers from Friday to Sunday with 25 to 50mm expected. On Monday and Tuesday if the low stays well offshore like a majority of models predict then South East winds and showers will continue with an additional 25mm.
IF the system crosses the coast then a massive increase in rainfall of between 300 to 600mm MIGHT occur between Tully and Mackay. I wouldn’t be delaying or changing my Central to North QLD holiday plans based of this chance forecast!

Some showers and storms are also likely to continue across the Peninsula district during the outlook period.

Temperatures across the Eastern and Northern half of the state are forecast to be between 27 to 33C during Easter outlook period, these increase up to 38C in the South West of the state. 

Mostly fine conditions are forecast across all Central, Southern and Western inland districts with just a slight chance of the odd shower or non severe storm during the next 6 days.