UPDATED 22nd November 2018. The low pressure system in no longer expected to be close enough to Eastern Tasmania to produce heavy rainfall above 50mm. Scattered showers, rain areas with strong to damaging winds are still expected across most of the state on Friday. Above and below images showing 3 day rainfall totals via Windy.com Green = 10 to 25mm, Blue = 30 to 50mm.
Original forecast 19th November 2018: A deep low is forecast to hit Tasmania and especially Hobart later this week with Damaging Winds, Heavy Rain and potential flooding. Above image: 5 day rainfall forecast showing widespread falls of 50 to 100mm and up to 150mm near Hobart via Windy.com
A similar system that caused severe flash flooding in Hobart early this year is forecast to occur again on Friday. A deep Antarctic low pressure system is expected to push a cold front across the state late on Tuesday into early Wednesday bringing the first round of severe weather.
A band of rain and storms with strong to damaging winds will hit Western parts of the state the state on Tuesday afternoon before continuing East across the rest of the state early Wednesday. Conditions will briefly ease during Thursday with showers and light winds.
On Friday the low pressure system ramps up to the East of Tasmania then is forecast to loop West impacting the Eastern half of the state. This is a very similar forecast to what occurred in May this year which resulted in damaging winds, heavy rain and flash flooding hitting South East districts.
At this stage a number of global forecast models are suggesting severe weather impacts to begin late Thursday night and during Friday as the low tracks close to the East coast. This scenario would bring widespread damaging winds of 90km hr across the state with higher gusts to 125km hr on elevated areas in the South East. Heavy rain which could cause flash flooding is also forecast.
IF the low stays far enough to the East then the impacts will be much less. People should prepare for the worst case scenario this week ahead of the 3 day system. Below image: The deep low on Friday via Windy.com