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About Jeff Higgins

I have had a passion for weather since I was 8 years old. In 2011 I created Higgins Storm Chasing on Facebook which has now grown into a successful meteorology business.
13 03, 2018

QLD TC 13P Coral Sea

2018-06-14T16:12:29+10:00

Posted 7:30am 13/3/18 QLD CORAL SEA TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P UPDATE

Tropical Cyclone 13P (named by JTWC) 992hpa is developing further in the North East Coral Sea. The system has a high chance of intensifying slightly during Tuesday while heading South to South-West across the Coral Sea towards Queensland.

TC 13P is likely to turn more South West while remaining a category 1 or 2 cyclone on Wednesday which will be named Linda (if BOM officially decides it meets cyclone criteria and names it). It is then expected to turn South and pass approximately 250km East of Brisbane and the South East QLD coast late on Wednesday into Thursday.

Very strong South East winds will develop along the Central and Southern QLD coast during Wednesday before shifting more Southerly on Thursday. Damaging dangerous surf and Large swell will also develop along the South East QLD coast from Fraser Island to Coolangatta.
Above Satellite Image Weatherzone
HSC Tropical Low & Cyclone forecast and track map is available here >
https://higginsstormchasing.com/login/

QLD TC 13P Coral Sea2018-06-14T16:12:29+10:00
12 03, 2018

QLD Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

2018-06-14T16:12:29+10:00

Issued at 3:45PM 12th March 2018 *CORAL SEA TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT*

A Tropical Low pressure system (90P) 995hpa is developing further in the North East Coral Sea South of the Solomon Islands.

The system has a high chance of intensifying into a Tropical Cyclone during Tuesday and head South to South-West across the Coral Sea towards Queensland. The system is likely to remain a category 1 or 2 cyclone on Wednesday which will be named Linda.

It is then expected to near the South East QLD coast late on Wednesday into Thursday. Satellite Image via Weatherzone

Detailed HSC Tropical Low & Cyclone forecast and track map is available here > https://higginsstormchasing.com/login/

QLD Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert2018-06-14T16:12:29+10:00
11 03, 2018

Coral Sea Tropical Invest 90p

2018-06-14T16:12:34+10:00

Posted 6pm 11th March 2018. A Tropical disturbance Invest 90p has developed in the North East Coral Sea near the Solomon Islands on Sunday. It is forecast to intensify into a Tropical Low during Monday while heading South. Above satellite image via BSCH.

During Tuesday the system has the greatest chance of further developing in a possible category 1 cyclone while continuing to tracking more South West towards the Queensland Coast. On Wednesday global model data becomes uncertain with the strength of the system as either being a Tropical Low or category 1 cyclone. ALL global data remains confident on a continued South West trajectory towards the Central to South East QLD coasts. 

Due to an unfavourable mid and upper level atmosphere with moderate to strong vertical wind shear, the system is highly unlikely to develop into a significant tropical cyclone. 

People living along and near the Central and South East Queensland coasts should closely monitor forecasts for further updates and changes in the coming few days. 

Due to global model uncertainty on Thursday the system MAY still impact the QLD coast as a low or weak cyclone, though it is likely to turn towards the South and remain offshore. We anticipate that by Monday morning a more confident forecast scenario will be issued. HSC Premium Members will have access to our in-house Tropical Low or Tropical Cyclone track and intensity forecast maps from Monday onwards. Subscribe HERE to Higgins Storm Chasing. 

Our next update will be issued on Monday morning. 

 

Coral Sea Tropical Invest 90p2018-06-14T16:12:34+10:00
8 03, 2018

EMERGENCY ALERT FOR HINCHINBROOK

2018-03-08T20:36:30+10:00

EMERGENCY ALERT for HINCHINBROOK as at 6.30pm Thu 8 Mar

An Emergency Alert flood message has been issued by the Hinchinbrook Shire Council. Major flood levels are expected in the Herbert River peaking at 14.7 metres at the Ingham Pump Station at 5am on Friday 9 March.

Residents in flood prone areas should enact their household emergency plan immediately. Further information is available at http://disaster.hinchinbrook.qld.gov.au.

Latest News Published by Hinchinbrook Shire Council

For general council news visit here

Major Flood Peak similar to February 2009 flood levels is expected at Ingham early Friday morning

The latest advice was issued at 4:25 pm EST on Thursday 8 March 2018 Flood Warning Number: 8

–    A Major Flood Warning has been issued for the Herbert River, you now need to be prepared for flooding.
–    A Major Flood Peak similar to February 2009 flood levels is expected at Ingham early Friday morning.
–    River levels are expected to reach the major flood level at Ingham Pump Station (14.75 m) early Friday morning.
–    The Herbert River at Gairloch is expected to peak around 12.50 metres early Friday morning.
–    Sand and sandbags are available for collection at BP Halifax, Carrs Farm at Cordelia and
     Shire Hall car park Ingham.
–    Roads closed in the district include Hawkins Creek at Dalrymple and Bridge and Bosworths Crossing.
–    Water over road at Halifax / Gairloch Washaway and the Blue Butterfly Road intersection.
–    Residents need to take immediate action to prepare for a major flood event.
–    Residents in low lying flood prone areas should be enacting their household emergency plan

You now need to be ready for flooding.

Remember: During or after a disaster or emergency event the Disaster Dashboard is the place for to go for all
disaster-related updates disaster.hinchinbrook.qld.gov.au

Published on 08/03/2018 17:03

EMERGENCY ALERT FOR HINCHINBROOK2018-03-08T20:36:30+10:00
1 03, 2018

Major Record Flood Forecast Western Queensland

2018-06-14T16:12:34+10:00

UPDATED 2nd March 2018. Large parts of Western Queensland need to prepare for a potential Major Record Flood which is forecast to impact the area during the next 4 days. It could rival anything during the past 44 years (since the 1974 flood), it may also be so significant that nothing has ever been experienced like it in this state. Widespread rainfall totals of 100 to 200mm are likely with up to 400mm possible! Above image via BOM – rainfall forecast next 8 days. Click here to subscribe to HSC for detailed rainfall and storm forecasts across QLD!

A Low pressure system is located between Mt Isa and Cloncurry on Friday which is near stationary. Daily Heavy Rainfall is forecast with 24 hour totals of 100 to 200mm likely and up to 300mm possible will accompany the low as it turns SOUTH EAST later on Friday and into the weekend. Areas forecast to be impacted on Friday are the Northern Goldfields, Gulf and North West districts. 

The low is then forecast to intensify and turn SOUTH EAST on Saturday and Sunday travelling past Winton before becoming very slow moving near Longreach on Monday. The following areas are at risk of record breaking rainfall over between 200 and 300mm with possibly up to 400mm – the North West, Northern Channel Country and Central West districts. Heaviest falls will depend on the exact movements of the low. These rainfall forecast figures should they eventuate will produce MAJOR flooding and potentially HISTORIC flooding through Western QLD. Below image 5 day rainfall forecast via ECMWF at Weatherdotus.

 

us_model-en-294-1_modez_2018030112_114_1533_157

Mt Isa’s highest ever daily rainfall total is 213mm in 2004 and monthly is 539mm in 2009. Boulia’s highest ever daily rainfall total is 209mm in 1834 and monthly is 464mm in 1974. These rainfall records at both locations may be broken from this system though UPDATED FRIDAY the heaviest falls are expected to remain JUST east of both locations. Longreach’s highest ever daily rainfall total is 201mm in 1936 and the monthly is 420mm in 1974. Winton’s highest ever daily rainfall total is 196mm in 1976 and the monthly is 562mm in 1974. 

We are urging people to take action NOW to protect property and livestock against heavy rain and flooding. Locations are likely to be isolated for up to 1 or 2 weeks. Logistics transport, public and tourism travel are also likely to be disrupted for an extended period. Stay safe everyone and stay tuned to the latest forecasts, updates and warnings.

This forecast has been updated on the 2nd of March 2018 using multi model ensemble data for the highest current accuracy available. The amounts of rain forecast may vary depending on the EXACT track and intensity of the low. Further HSC forecasts will be issued when required. 

Major Record Flood Forecast Western Queensland2018-06-14T16:12:34+10:00
28 02, 2018

Tropical Low Over Townsville To Head West

2018-06-14T16:12:35+10:00

Issued 28th Feb 2018. A Tropical Low is located over Townsville bringing heavy rain and flash flooding between Ingham and Bowen with further 24 hour falls of between 150 and 250mm likely with up to 350mm possible. Above image via Windy for Wednesday. 

Nelly Beach near Townsville has recorded 229mm to 9am on Wednesday with Bushland Beach recording 200mm. Ross River Dam as of Wednesday 7am 28/02/2018 is at 29% and rising fast. 

The low is forecast to track WEST during Thursday, Friday and Saturday producing heavy rain and flooding across Northern inland and North West QLD before possibly turning towards the South on Sunday.

Heavy 24 hour rainfall totals of 100 to 300mm are forecast across the Herbert and Lower Burdekin, Goldfields, Gulf and North West districts. The system will not form into a Tropical Cyclone due to being overland however in may intensify in the North West to include damaging winds to 110km hr on Saturday and Sunday. Below image via Windy for Sunday. Click here to subscribe to Higgins Storm Chasing for detailed rainfall and storm forecast maps across QLD.

WESTQLDTROPICALLOW04MARCH2018

Tropical Low Over Townsville To Head West2018-06-14T16:12:35+10:00
25 02, 2018

Damaging microbursts forecast for SEQLD & NENSW

2018-06-14T16:12:35+10:00

Posted 25th Feb 2018 forecast for Monday 26th. Severe thunderstorms are very likely to develop across North East NSW and South East QLD on Monday afternoon. They are likely to contain damaging to possibly destructive winds over 125km hr and heavy rain. Above image: 500 vorticity via WRF / Weatherzone. 

A very strong Northward moving coastal trough is forecast to sweep through North East NSW on Monday reaching South East QLD late in the afternoon and evening. High amounts of instability and moisture is expected to lead to scattered thunderstorms across both regions on Monday but its the late Southerly change that needs to be watched closely. 

A Southerly change moving North along the coast has the tendancy to greatly enhance weather activity along the wind boundary. In Monday’s case all the right ingredients are there to produce damaging microbursts. What we are likely to see is storms developing earlier on that get injected with force from the South. This can often lead to storms rapidly becoming severe as they head North to North East across the region. Recently we have seen 2 similar system do significant damage to Landsborough, Maleny, Montville and Mapleton. 

They produce areas of extremely heavy rainfall leading to damaging wind microbursts. Basically it’s caused by the intensity and force of huge water volumes falling from significant heights of around 50,000ft which drags a severe gusts of wind down to the surface. 

The Northern Rivers, South East Coast and Eastern Darling Downs are at risk on Monday. Storms are likely to contain damaging winds and heavy rain however destructive winds over 125km hr can’t be ruled out! Detailed Higgins storm forecast maps for SEQLD & NENSW available by clicking here!
Below image via BSCH showing the Southerly wind change.

SOUTHERLYCAHNGE26THFEB2018GFSBSCH

Damaging microbursts forecast for SEQLD & NENSW2018-06-14T16:12:35+10:00
22 02, 2018

Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, Gold Coast Could Get A Deluge

2018-06-14T16:12:35+10:00

Posted 22nd Feb 2018. The South East QLD Coast is forecast to cop a deluge over the next 3 days with up to 200mm possible. Above image: Rainfall forecast data for Friday and Saturday via WRF / Weatherzone, purple = 100mm.

Various global computer models are continually forecasting heavy rain and storms across the 3 major cities in South East QLD over night Thursday and through Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The main target areas for 100 to 200mm are from the Sunshine Coast, through Brisbane and into the Gold Coast. 

A surface trough is currently across the Sunshine Coast on Thursday night generating widespread rain which is forecast to shift further South on Friday. As a result rain areas with moderate to heavy falls should also shift further South. HSC HQ has already recorded 150mm at Maleny with heavy rain continuing on Thursday night.

During Saturday and Sunday the trough remains across the region which is expected to produce scattered showers and storms with some storms likely severe with heavy rainfall leading the flash flooding.

The whole area is very likely to get rain and storms during the outlook period however the exact location for excessive rainfall totals of around 200mm is hard to pin point due to slight model variation. Flash flooding will become a risk under heavy rain areas. 

We will continue to provide forecasts, updates and warnings as the system unfolds. Below image: rainfall forecast data via GFS / BSCH. Higgins Premium forecasts and maps available here! 
gfs.raincast.bsch.init-2018022200z.start-0.stop-90.bne.0

 

Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, Gold Coast Could Get A Deluge2018-06-14T16:12:35+10:00
21 02, 2018

Heavy Rain Forecast South East QLD

2018-06-14T16:12:36+10:00

Posted 21st Feb 2018. Heavy rain is forecast across South East QLD and North East NSW during the next 4 days. Accumulation totals along the coast are expected to exceed 100mm with possible locally higher falls of 200mm which may lead to flash flooding. Storms some severe are also a chance with heavy rain. There is an increased RISK of water spouts crossing the coastline. Above image via Higgins Premium.

A deep onshore flow is producing scattered showers and rain areas across the South East Coast, Wide Bay and Burnett districts on Wednesday. This activity is likely to continue overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.

A coastal trough is forecast to develop in the Coral Sea and track West during Thursday to cross the coast later in the day. This trough will lead to a significant increase in rain activity through the South East Coast, Wide Bay and Burnett districts and also the Northern Rivers of NSW. Moderate to Heavy falls are likely to develop during the afternoon and evening which may lead to flash flooding. There is a chance of thunderstorms developing also which could become severe with heavy rainfall. Thursday provides the highest risk for waterspouts crossing the coast which could cause isolated pockets of damage. 

On Friday the trough remains inlace across the Wide Bay and South East QLD coasts while shifting further South into the Northern Rivers of NSW. Scattered showers, storms and rain areas with moderate to locally heavy falls likely to continue which may lead to flash flooding. Some storms may be severe with heavy rain. 

During Saturday the surface trough is forecast to be located just inland. This is likely to lead to scattered showers and storms across South East QLD and North East NSW with some storms likely to be severe with heavy rain. Again flash flooding will be a risk.

The heaviest rain is forecast along the coast and adjacent hinterland and valley regions. Further West of the ranges rainfall totals taper down. Detailed 24hr rainfall and thunderstorm forecasts available via our HSC Premium Membership service. Click here to subscribe!

Heavy Rain Forecast South East QLD2018-06-14T16:12:36+10:00
16 02, 2018

QLD heatwave day 6 16th Feb 2018

2018-06-14T16:12:39+10:00

Posted 16th Feb 2018. The prolonged widespread severe to extreme heatwave is forecast to continue across a majority of Queensland on Friday. This heatwave is forecast to last through until Saturday for Eastern districts while continuing until mid next week through the Western half of the state. Above image: Maximum temperatures via BSCH. 

Widespread scorching temperatures of 40 to 45C will continue across the North West, Central West, Central inland, Southern inland and parts of the South East. Along the very exposed coast (close to the beach) very warm and humid conditions of 32 to 35C are expected. For Eastern inland parts the temps will quickly go up to between 36 and 41C.

Fridays statewide maximum forecast temperatures are as follows…

Southern QLD: Brisbane CBD 34C – Eastern suburbs 32C – Western suburbs 36C, Ipswich 36C, Sunshine Coast 31C, Nambour 33C, Gold Coast 31C, Nerang 34C, Coomera 34C, Gympie 34C, Maryborough 33C, Bundaberg 32C, Gatton 38C, Toowoomba 33C, Warwick 36C, Inglewood & Millmerran 37C, Stanthorpe 33C, Dalby 36C, Roma 40C, Charleville 41C, St George 39C, Goondiwindi 40C, Quilpie 42C, Birdsville 43C.

Central QLD: Gladstone 33C, Biloela 37C, Gayndah 36C, Rockhampton 36C, Mackay 35C, Moranbah 39C, Emerald 39C, Longreach 43C, Boulia 43C.

Northern QLD: Townsville 34C, Cairns 34C, Weipa 33C, Georgetown 37C, Charters Towers 37C, Richmond 42C, Cloncurry 44C, Mt Isa 43C, Burketown 36C.

A majority of these forecast maximums are between 6 and 11C above the long term February average for longer than 3 days constituting a heatwave. Overnight minimum temperatures well also be 4 to 9C above average especially through Southern and Central inland parts. Very hot, humid oppressive nights also expected along the coast. Brisbane has been recording near record February minimum temps this week of around 26C.  
Below image: BOM heatwave Thursday to Saturday.

BOMHEATWAVE15THFEB2018

 

QLD heatwave day 6 16th Feb 20182018-06-14T16:12:39+10:00
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