Issued 10th December 2018. Given the current agreement between global forecast data sets we feel compelled to issue this cyclone forecast alert.
• EX TC Owen is expected to enter the Southern Gulf waters during Tuesday. Due to a favourable environment the system is likely to intensify.
• During Wednesday & Thursday Owen is forecast to rapidly intensify into a cyclone over the Southern Gulf.
• The ECMWF HIGH RES model (best in the world) suggests TC Owen could be a SEVERE category 5 system on Thursday while tracking South East directly over Mornington Island. This would be a worst case scenario but demands a level of respect.
• A majority of global models also suggest TC Owen will cross the Southern Gulf and track South East down the QLD coast from Cairns to Fraser Island late this week, “similar” to EX TC Oswald in 2013.
• At this stage widespread rainfall totals of 100 to 200mm could accompany the system along the entire East Coast of QLD. Any shift in the final track will greatly alter rainfall forecasts.
• People living in and around the Gulf Of Carpentaria need to closely monitor forecasts and have your cyclone emergency kits and plans in place.
• Detailed accurate cyclone forecasts and maps are current and available on our website here > Higgins Storm Chasing Premium Membership Weather Service