Issued 11th June 2020. Despite last months chanting across many News Media Outlets and BOM forecasts for a negative Indian Ocean Dipole causing a “Wet Winter” with above average rainfall across large parts of Australia, that has all changed! You see long range global forecast data during April and May are KNOWN to have poor accuracy… Now that has been proven as a completely opposite positive Indian Ocean Dipole develops turning the chances for above average rainfall across the country on their head. Above image: The latest JAMSTEC Indian Ocean sea surface temperature forecast for June – August 2020 showing a positive IOD event developing. Below image: The latest JAMSTEC model ensemble showing a positive IOD forecast from June – September 2020.
It’s worth noting that at this stage the positive IOD is not forecast to be as strong as last years record event. But what does it all mean for Australia???
Right now the chances of 3 month above average rainfall for Winter have diminished right across the country. Model data is still hanging in there with mostly near average rainfall for the next 3 months which would be very welcome and way better than last year. However the Indian Ocean Dipole and Rainfall forecasts will have to be very closely monitored by forecasters over the next month for further significant changes! It is very possible that rainfall totals could be further reduced in the July to September outlook. It is going to be mean more difficult and riskier decisions for farmers and graziers looking make long term plans during such uncertain weather times ahead.
Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across the Northern half of the country and near average across the Southern half. Below image via JAMSTEC.
Higgins Storm Chasing provides independant long range rainfall outlooks for QLD, NSW, the ACT and Victoria. We have updated our maps today to reflect some changes in the latest data. Due to being very conservative and cautious in our original rainfall outlook these changes have only been minor.
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Issued 10th June 2020. Despite an encouraging storm system delivering half a meter of snow in early May there is very little natural snow left on the ground across the Australian Alps ATM. Above image via Perisher web cam. Maximum temperatures through May and June have remained well into positive values averaging around 9C. This has caused any snow that has fallen so far to melt away quickly. This time last year a Winter storm produced over 70cms which really kick started the 2019 season. Below image showing 2019 V 2020 snow depths.
June is likely to remain almost snowless across the Alps due to a strong positive value SAM (Southern Annular Mode). SAM values and forecasts indicate the latitudes of low pressure systems from Antarctica and the South Pole. In a positive phase SAM, polar air masses stay well South of Australia while high pressure systems dominate the country. Forecasts for SAM only extend 15 days ahead though trends can be determined up to 30 days ahead. For the next 2 weeks models suggest SAM will stay positive meaning polar lows are less likely to reach Australia. Beyond that there is some hope at the very end of June where extended global models are forecasting a Winter storm across the Alps with up to 60cms on snow. Below image AAO / SAM forecast.
It’s not all doom and gloom, during the past week freezing minimum temperatures have allowed resorts to make plenty of artificial snow! There is also ample opportunity left during July and August for the current Winter weather patterns to change. Lets hope there are a few BIG snow dumps this year. The other good news it that reports are OPEN for visitors under special Cover-19 policies. Please visit each Alpine resorts booking page for details, do not just turn up without booking first. Below image: Snow machines in action at Mt Hotham.
Higgins storm chasing provides independent snow forecasts and maps across Victoria, NSW, the ACT and Southern QLD. Check out our website by clicking here for more information!
Issued 10th June 2020. After a very dry few months across inland parts of the state there is hope this weekend for some widespread rainfall. Above image via weatherzone.com.au
On Wednesday and Thursday scattered showers and some possible isolated storm activity will be focused across the South East due to onshore winds and an upper level disturbance. A number of locations east of the ranges should record 10-20mm with locally higher falls to 50mm possible.
During the weekend a cold front and surface trough will start out producing showers and rain across across the Central and Southern inland before moving East to the coast on Sunday. Widespread totals of 10-20mm are forecast across Central and Southern districts across these 2 days.
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