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2 07, 2017

Good Snow Dumping just in time for School Holidays

2018-06-14T16:14:02+10:00

The Snowy Mountains are expected to benefit from a winter blast over the next few days with the best snow of the season so far expected to arrive just in time for resorts to benefit from a holiday rush. Above image: Forecast snowfall via WindyTV


During Monday, a low pressure region is expected to become situated over the Bight, with a cold front / trough system extending up through Western VIC and Inland. During Monday afternoon and evening, this trough / cold front is expected to sweep through bring some strong winds to elevated regions along with isolated showers across both much of Inland NSW and scattered showers across much of VIC. Behind this system though, a pool of ‘cold enough’ air is expected to creep up from the Southern Bight and move over the South-East corner of Australia. This pool of ‘cold enough’ air is expected to linger through Tuesday to allow snowfall to continue before easing back on Wednesday as the lower level cooling warms up and conditions become heavily reliant on upper level activity.

So for the snowfall, up to 50cm, yes half a metre, is expected across parts of the NSW Snowy Mountains and 30-40cm is expected across the VIC Snowy Mountains. Good moisture should remain active over the Snowy Mountain region which will allow for nearly all precipitation to become snowfall during Monday afternoon until Wednesday morning. The small difference in totals is expected to come from the peak cooling remaining over NSW throughout the snow period. Despite the very good totals that are expected, snowfall is only expected to fall down to around 1200m and this is due to the cold burst of air only being -2ºc at 1500m ASL. This is perfect timing after such a poor start to the season, the ski resorts can hopefully salvage something from this occurring during school holidays.

Forecast températures at 1500m ASL during Tuesday morning via WindyTV / ECMWF

Forecast températures at 1500m ASL during Tuesday morning via WindyTV / ECMWF

 

 

As for the other weather associated with this system, scattered showers with falls of 5-15mm are expected across VIC and better falls (stated above) across the Snowy Mountains. Reasonable falls of 5-10mm are expected across Southern NSW / ACT also. The rainfall and cloud cover should keep maximum temperatures down on normal, but thankfully minimums should come back to at least normal if not slightly above average after the deep freeze experienced over Saturday and Sunday morning.

ECMWF / WindyTV - Forecast 3 day rainfall with blue being around 10mm and green / aqua being as much as 25mm

ECMWF / WindyTV – Forecast 3 day rainfall with blue being around 10mm and green / aqua being as much as 25mm

 

 

Good Snow Dumping just in time for School Holidays2018-06-14T16:14:02+10:00
2 07, 2017

Day 2: The cold get colder

2018-06-14T16:14:02+10:00

Another morning of widespread freezing and even frigid conditions as swept much of NSW, VIC, TAS and Southern QLD with the elusive -10ºc temperature finally occurring. Above image via Jo Hall in a frozen Glen Innes


Over the past 24hrs, a high pressure system which was originally situated over Eastern VIC / Southern NSW shifting North-East and became elongated to stretch over the entirety of Eastern NSW and remain over Eastern VIC / stretch into South-Eastern QLD. This allowed temperatures to remain fairly similar to that of Saturday morning across large parts of NSW and VIC, while South-Eastern QLD saw an even colder morning. TAS remained influence by the ridge and while temperatures weren’t nearly as frigid in the Highlands as those seen on Saturday, there was still enough for the freeze effect to occur.

 

Cool frozen display on the roof of a car in Bathurst, NSW via Miranda Ross

Cool frozen display on the roof of a car in Bathurst, NSW via Miranda Ross

 

• Goulburn  was the coldest of the cold with a new record breaking -10.4ºc, beating yesterday’s record breaker of -9.7ºc and smashing the original record of -9.1ºc.
• Cooma Airport -9.2ºc
• Canberra saw -8.2ºc which has meant Canberra has seen back to back -8ºc days 
• Braidwood -7.5ºc (back to back -7ºc)
• Tuggeranong -7.0ºc
• Young -7.0ºc
• Butlers Gorge (TAS) -6.6ºc
• Bathurst -6.1ºc
• Bombala -6.0ºc
• Temora -5.8ºc
• Mudgee -5.6ºc
• Condoblin -5.5ºc
• Fingal (TAS) -5.5ºc
• West Wyalong -5.5ºc
• Cowra -5.4ºc
• Liawenee (TAS) -5.2ºc
• Glen Innes saw -5.0ºc
• Merriwa had -4.8ºc – again the coldest in the Hunter although much of the Hunter was noticeably colder this morning
• Orange -4.6ºc

 For the major cities, Melbourne scored 1.4ºc again with the outer suburbs below 0ºc, Hobart was 1.1ºc for the second morning running with the outer suburbs down to as low as -4ºc. Western Sydney scored -2ºc and areas West of Brisbane dropped to freezing. 

Click above to view the image carousel featuring a variety of photos sent in!

For much of Eastern NSW in particularly, the high pressure ridge should remain in place today and into tomorrow morning allowing for another cold morning, but overall temperatures aren’t expected to be as bitter as the previous 2 mornings.

Frozen cricket field in Katoomba via Amanda Playford

Frozen cricket field in Katoomba via Amanda Playford

 

 

Day 2: The cold get colder2018-06-14T16:14:02+10:00
29 06, 2017

Low Level Snow incoming for TAS!

2018-06-14T16:14:07+10:00

A cold front has moved through Tasmania this morning and has made way for a burst of freezing air to impact the region tonight and tomorrow morning leading to low level snowfall! Above image via Weatherzone


A cold front moved through Tasmania this morning bringing strong to damaging wind gusts and some reasonable rainfall as expected. Wind gusts of 93km/h were recorded on Maatsuyker Island off the South Coast of Tasmania while Mount Read record a 91km/h gust. Several other locations recorded winds of 80-90km/h during the morning and early afternoon. As for the rainfall falls of up to 20mm occurred to 9am over the Western districts of TAS and up to 15mm from 9am to 2pm over the Southern districts. Again, nothing out of the ordinary, but its the cold air which is now moving overhead that is about to change things up.

2:30pm radar and satellite of Tasmania showing the showers impacting the West via Weatherzone

2:30pm radar and satellite of Tasmania showing the showers impacting the West via Weatherzone

 

 

Satellite imagery at 3pm was showing a large area of speckled cloud coverage starting to impact Western Tasmania behind the cold front, and spreading into the Eastern Bight. This speckled cloud coverage is indicative of very cold air which usually results in snowfall. Global models are indicating that from now (3pm Thursday) until mid Friday morning, an upper trough with much colder than normal temperatures of -5 to -7ºc at 1500m ASL is expected to impact the entirety of Tasmania. This very cold air is expected to combine with a narrow period of increased moisture content to produce snowfall to low levels across Tasmania, likely down to 300m and possibly down to 200m. This should lift on Friday morning to around 500m and then gradually during the afternoon before snowfall stops. Despite low level snow occurring, only 10-15cm is expected in the TAS Highlands and this is due to the narrow timeframe that moisture will be active over the region. Only a dusting is expected below 500m.

Forecast 1500m ASL temperatures for Midnight Friday June 30th over Tasmania via ECMWF / WindyTV

Forecast 1500m ASL temperatures for Midnight Friday June 30th over Tasmania via ECMWF / WindyTV

 

 

Low Level Snow incoming for TAS!2018-06-14T16:14:07+10:00
28 06, 2017

Low Level Snow likely in TAS during Thursday & Friday

2018-06-14T16:14:07+10:00

A new wave of snow potential is expected to sweep through Tasmania during Thursday night and Friday morning with snow likely down to 400m and possible down to 300 maybe even 200m. Above image via WindyTV showing 3-day snowfall potential.

During Thursday morning, a cold front is forecast to sweep across Tasmania producing a band of showers and strong to possibly damaging winds. While rainfall totals should be fairly normal for this time of year, and winds will be nothing out of the ordinary…. its the pool of freezing air which is expected to be dragged up from Antarctica behind the system and produce conditions favourable for low level snowfall.

During Thursday afternoon and evening, temperatures at 1500m are expected to rapidly drop and bottom out around midnight at -7ºc over Southern TAS and -5ºc or colder over the entirety of TAS. These very cold temperatures are expected to mix with a narrow period of moisture from about 4pm Thursday until about 4am Friday to produce conditions which are favourable for snowfall to occur at low levels. The majority of models are indicating the snow is likely to fall to at least 400m, with snow possible down to 200m in the South of the State (some going even lower than that although the safer bet is 200-300m). While this isn’t anything out of the ordinary as Tasmania does see low level snow each day, the system itself is much awaited after the warmest start to June in a long time for the majority of TAS.

 

Despite the potential for low level snow, snowfall totals at the higher altitudes aren’t expected to benefit with the window of moisture expected to be short enough that snowfall totals are limited to about 15-25cm over the Central and Northern Highlands, and only a dusting at those lower levels. Thinking positively though, after such a warm start… some of these Highland locations could be well over the 50cm mark in just a week of activity following 2 previous snow days in the last 8 days.

ec-tas-snow-june-29-30

Low Level Snow likely in TAS during Thursday & Friday2018-06-14T16:14:07+10:00
28 06, 2017

Showers and Storms expected to impact Northern NSW & Southern QLD

2018-06-14T16:14:07+10:00

A band of showers and thunderstorms are likely to impact large parts of Southern and possibly Central Inland QLD along with Northern Inland and North-Eastern NSW, possibly spreading into South-Eastern QLD between Wednesday and Friday. This band of activity is expected to produce good off-season rainfall for areas that are needing it. Above image via WindyTV showing 3-day rainfall totals across the region.


Models are indicating that a surface trough is likely to develop and become established between Port Macquarie, Moree, St George and Windorah during Wednesday. This surface trough is expected to draw in high levels of moisture from the Coral Sea / Pacific Ocean on an Easterly moisture fetch, while also drawing in high levels of moisture from the South-West (Great Australian Bight). The combination of increased moisture and upper level support from an upper trough over NSW is expected to lead to an areas of instability developing around the system leading to isolated thunderstorms during Wednesday afternoon over Northern NSW and Southern Inland QLD, while a band of showers and rain periods are more likely. This band of showers and storms is expected to produce falls of 25-50mm across Northern parts of NSW and isolated higher totals not being ruled out, while across Southern Inland QLD falls of up to 15mm are possible.

 

OCF Forecast Rainfall totals for Wednesday, June 28th 2017 via BSCH

OCF Forecast Rainfall totals for Wednesday, June 28th 2017 via BSCH

 

During Thursday, the system is expected to shift towards the East and continue to impact the Darling Downs, Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Northern Tablelands, Warrego and Maranoa along with parts of the North-West Slopes and Plains and Central Inland QLD. The entire system is expected to intensify leading to more prolonged rain areas and potentially more scattered thunderstorms. While storms will remain hit and miss, the rain areas are what we will focus on as a large area of 25-50mm is possible from Taroom to Coolangatta, down to Port Macquarie and back inland towards Moree and Charleville.

 

OCF Forecast Rainfall totals for Thursday, June 29th 2017 via BSCH

OCF Forecast Rainfall totals for Thursday, June 29th 2017 via BSCH

 

 

During Friday morning, the system is expected to sweep through South-East QLD giving overnight showers and rain so rainfall totals are expected to be on the light side in South-East QLD (up to 15mm possible), and these should continue across the Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast (again with light totals) while clearing inland regions. Overall across the 3 days, falls of 50-75mm are possible across some areas over the Northern Tablelands, Northern Rivers, Darling Downs and while some have benefited this year from good rainfall, others in these districts haven’t, so we are hoping maybe this can be the system to lift some hopes.

 

OCF Forecast Rainfall totals for Friday, June 30th 2017 via BSCH

OCF Forecast Rainfall totals for Friday, June 30th 2017 via BSCH

 

 

Showers and Storms expected to impact Northern NSW & Southern QLD2018-06-14T16:14:07+10:00
25 06, 2017

Another Snow Burst to hit TAS

2018-06-14T16:14:07+10:00

Issued at 2:30pm Sunday, June 25th 2017. The cold front has just passed through TAS and the cold snow air is about to arrive! Above image is a visible satellite via BSCH

 

The current synoptic situation is showing a cold front, the second in just 3 days, has passed over Tasmania this afternoon and is now beginning to pass through Victoria. This cold front is tracking towards the East and is linked to a strong low pressure system in the Southern Tasman Sea. Along and just ahead this cold front, damaging to near destructive winds have been recorded with Maatsuyker Island seeing a wind gust of 113km/h around 9am this morning and gusts between 85 and 100km/h since. Mt Wellington has seen a wind gust of 91km/h and Hogan Island located in Bass Strait has just seen an 89km/h gust but this may increase as the front nears over the next hour or so.

 

Behind this front, very cold air is once again being dragged up from Antarctica, indicated by the speckled cloud coverage over the Great Australian Bight at the moment (circled in blue on the cover image). This speckled cloud resembles the general region where conditions are favourable for snowfall to occur. Temperatures as low as -3ºc are forecast to occur at 1500m behind the front, once this mixes with shallow moisture then snowfall is likely to occur through Sunday evening into Monday over Tasmania down to about 700-800m and across the Snowy Mountains down to around 1000m. Falls of up to 15cm are forecast across the Tasmanian Central Highlands, with about 5-10cm expected over the Snowy Mountains.

Forecast températures at 5,000ft / 1500m via EC Model for the early hours of Monday Morning via WindyTV

Forecast températures at 5,000ft / 1500m via EC Model for the early hours of Monday Morning via WindyTV

 

 

Another Snow Burst to hit TAS2018-06-14T16:14:07+10:00
18 06, 2017

Rough beach conditions expected over the next 24-72hrs

2018-06-14T16:14:08+10:00

The beaches from the Sunshine Coast to Port Macquarie are about to cop a bit of a lashing as strong winds and large seas caused by a low pressure system impact the region for several days. Above image – Monday wave heights via WindyTV/ECMWF model


A low pressure system located well East of the Northern Rivers on Monday is forecast to slowly move East and away from the South-East QLD / North-Eastern NSW Coast, however the low itself is expected to morph into more a broad low pressure region on Tuesday and into Wednesday whilst keeping a slow Easterly movement in tact. This low whilst producing some isolated showers along the DIRECT Coastline between the Sunshine Coast and Port Macquarie, is also expected to generate strong winds and a potentially dangerous surf.

During Monday, the focus of the above average seas and large swell are forecast to be situated over the North-Eastern NSW region. Seas of 3-4m are likely, with offshore buoys potentially seeing waves as high as 6m. This is forecast to combine with winds of 40-60km/h with gusts of up to 75km/h to create potentially hazardous beach conditions. For South-East QLD its expected to be a bit calmer during Monday, however conditions are forecast to deteriorate as the stronger winds surge further North Monday night into Tuesday morning.

 

Forecast winds via EC Model / WindyTV during Monday morning (red >50km/h, purple >90km/h)

Forecast winds via EC Model / WindyTV during Monday morning (red >50km/h, purple >90km/h)

 


During Tuesday, the entire region mentioned above should be under the influence of strong winds of up to 60km/h and wind gusts of up to 75km/h, along with waves of up to 4m likely and potentially up to 5 or 6m and this is likely to last into Wednesday morning where conditions should begin to ease, but still staying above normal for height and wind strength. 

Whilst this isn’t uncommon, especially during Winter, it could come as a little of a shock to anyone within close vicinity to the beaches as the Low itself isn’t really going to make its presence known. Apart from the odd shower producing falls of less than a few mm, there should be plenty of breaks in the cloud for the sun to creep through and produce pleasant days, although the wind will likely keep the “feels like” temperature down a fair bit.

 

Forecast wave heights via EC Model / WindyTV on Tuesday (June 20th) - maroon 4m height, lighter red >5m

Forecast wave heights via EC Model / WindyTV on Tuesday (June 20th) – maroon 4m height, lighter red >5m

 

 

Rough beach conditions expected over the next 24-72hrs2018-06-14T16:14:08+10:00
8 06, 2017

Northern and Central NSW to cop a Winter Drenching

2018-06-14T16:14:13+10:00

Areas along the NSW Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Hunter and potentially the Central Coast are set to cop a Winter drenching over at least the next 3 days, but potentially over the next week. Above image HSC Forecast 4-day rainfall (Friday to Monday)

 

An upper level low pressure system / cold pool is set to track up through Central Inland NSW on Friday, with an upper trough covering much of the State, this upper level low is then set to move into the Northern Inland districts / possibly as far North as Southern Inland QLD during Saturday before remaining in the area and becoming elongated from South-West QLD into the Hunter on Sunday. This upper level system is forecast to combine with a relatively deep onshore South-East to Easterly flow to generate showers and rain periods along the Coastline from Sydney, Northwards. The rainfall expected from this event is expected to cover at least 3 days consistently with falls of 50-100mm possible each day, and grand totals of 150-200mm+ likely for some areas. Widespread falls of 50-100mm are likely from Lismore to Sydney, with lighter falls (but still good) extending inland to the Ranges. The better falls are expected to be directly along the Coast.

These kinds of falls, given the area has already receive 50-125mm, could lead to some minor flooding for creeks and rivers, while localised flash flooding under heavier downpours is also likely. A flood watch may be issued for this potential.

 

 

Further inland, and showers / some rain areas, but more importantly… thunderstorms, are expected to surround the cold pool. The colder upper level temperatures are expected to interact with increased moisture to produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms over Central Inland NSW on Friday and Northern Inland NSW on Saturday and Sunday.

Forecast position of the cold pool at 4am Saturday via BSCH/GFS

Forecast position of the cold pool at 4am Saturday via BSCH/GFS

 

 

As stated above, the onshore winds onto the Northern and Central Coastline of NSW may extend beyond Sunday / Monday where further good falls may occur. Another update will be posted for this potential later on.

Northern and Central NSW to cop a Winter Drenching2018-06-14T16:14:13+10:00
6 06, 2017

East Coast Low to impact NSW Central Coast

2018-06-14T16:14:14+10:00

The Central NSW Coast is forecast to feel the impacts of an East Coast Low over the next few days with strong to damaging winds and heavy rain battering parts of the Coastline. Above image via WindyTV / EC Model – Wind gusts Wednesday morning

During Tuesday and Wednesday, a low pressure system is forecast to develop East of Tasmania / in the Tasman Sea and move Northwards where its expected to intensify off the NSW South Coast, from there models are in agreement that the ECL is expected to near the NSW Central Coast somewhere between Wollongong and Port Macquarie, most likely around the Sydney to Newcastle region. The system is expected to peak its intensity over Tuesday night and into Wednesday where strong to damaging winds gusts may prompt severe weather warnings, along with consistent rain periods, some heavy, along the DIRECT Coastline. The system is expected to weaken / become more broad whilst continuing to move North and remaining offshore from the Northern NSW Coast, with all models holding this agreement for several days now.

 

 

Along the DIRECT NSW Central Coast, accumulative falls of 50-100mm are possible across Tuesday and Wednesday, while areas as little as 50km inland may receive less than a sprinkle. Again, take note, the rainfall due to the way the winds stream onshore is expected to be VERY COASTAL. Wind gusts of 50-70km/h are expected, with the odd gusts of up to 90km/h possible along exposed areas of the Coast, strong gusts are possible over the Blue Mountains further inland also.

 

Forecast rainfall via EC/Windy TV - Yellow indicates over 50mm, red over 100mm. Falls are localised to the direct Coastline

Forecast rainfall via EC/Windy TV – Yellow indicates over 50mm, red over 100mm. Falls are localised to the direct Coastline

 

 

 

For Snowfall, some reasonable falls of 5-15cm are possible across the NSW and VIC Snowy Mountains, with snowfall possible down to 900m early on Wednesday morning, while flurries of up to 2-4cm are possible over the highest peaks of the Central Tablelands. While temperatures will be acceptable for snowfall to occur, it will be the lack of moisture preventing any bigger totals from occurring.

Forecast 3-day snowfall totals via WindyTV/EC Model. Snow possible over the Central Tablelands/Barrington Tops

Forecast 3-day snowfall totals via WindyTV/EC Model. Snow possible over the Central Tablelands/Barrington Tops

 

NOTE: This is a WEAK East Coast Low… its not strong, damage is expected to be very very limited, if any damage at all. We understand many people are concerned after previous years where dangerous ECL have occurred, but rest assured this one is nowhere near that intensity. 

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East Coast Low to impact NSW Central Coast2018-06-14T16:14:14+10:00
2 06, 2017

May 2017 in the States: A recap

2018-06-14T16:14:14+10:00

May has been interesting in the States to say the least, and for those who haven’t been able to see my trip unfold so far, this blog should provide the ideal catch up.

The numbers don’t give the full story, and neither do the pictures. May hasn’t realistically lived up to the typified standards that we (as chasers) come to expect. When you hear the words May and United States together, I for one think of photogenic, monster tornadoes. 2017 has been different… it’s felt like finding a pot of gold at the end of stormy rainbow was more likely than a tornado condensing fully to the ground. Yes I’ve seen 9 tornadoes, 1 was “legit”, 1 was a giant dust swirl and 7 were tiny ground circulations.

Large ground swirls (confirmed weak tornado) near Idalia, Colorado (May 25th)

Large ground swirls (confirmed weak tornado) near Idalia, Colorado (May 25th)

 

White cone funnel (brief Tornado) North of Simla, Colorado (May 8th)

White cone funnel (brief Tornado) North of Simla, Colorado (May 8th)

It’s easy to get caught up in the tornadoes specifically, but this shouldn’t take away from the amazing colour Supercells, powerful lightning and destructive hail that we’ve seen. I lost count nearly 2 weeks ago at more than 25 Supercells intercepted/chased so far. Half of these have been awe inspiring to watch, the other half… well… 2 windshields replaced in 8 days from baseball and softball size hail says it all (haha). It’s a pretty special feeling when you can sit on 1 cell for nearly 9hrs straight and watch it go from nothing into something you’ll remember forever.

So where to now? Bring on June… the feeling amongst the US community is June will be better for tornadoes. As we enter the low precipitation season, giant hail and non-obscured (normal) tornadoes… the ones that don’t get rain wrapped in 5 minutes… become the main threats. Long distance powerful lightning will also be on offer as the High Plains puts on its typical June / July show.

May 2017 in the States: A recap2018-06-14T16:14:14+10:00
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