Uncategorized

Home/Uncategorized
19 05, 2017

Rain increasing in SEQLD moderate falls possible

2018-06-14T16:14:15+10:00
[wp_ad_camp_2]

While Central and North QLD have copped an absolute May drenching, the rain is increasing across South East QLD on Friday! Widespread 25mm is likely with isolated falls of 50 to 100mm possible. Above image via Weatherzone. 

A surface trough developed along the South East coast on Thursday night delivering scattered falls of 25 to 50mm with isolated falls of 50 to 100mm between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast to 9am on Friday. Banksia Beach on Bribie Island has topped the count so far with 109mm. 

At 11am on Friday surface trough is currently located from Fraser Island to the Sunshine Coast where moderate rains areas are occurring. This trough is forecast to slide further South across the South East Coast during the rest of Friday and into Friday night. Scattered showers, rain areas with possible moderate falls and isolated storms are likely from Tin Can Bay to Coolangatta. The best falls are forecast along the coast tending lighter the further inland you go. Kingaroy, Toowoomba and Warwick are expected to see mainly showers at this stage. Gladstone, Bundaberg, Hervey Bay and Maryborough will also see scattered showers and light rain areas but again totals are not expected to be significant. 

[wp_ad_camp_4]

Temperatures will remain cool under the rain and cloud with most locations struggling to a top of 20c. Winds will remain light from the South to East. 

On Saturday and Sunday some lingering instability is forecast to produce scattered showers and possible isolated storms South from Bundaberg to Taroom, East from Roma to St George. Rainfall totals on both days are expected to mainly be from 5 to 10mm unless a storm dumps 20mm under it. 

Fine conditions will return on Monday and continue through the week as a high pressure ridge becomes established. Below image: Rainfall forecast totals via WindTV

Subscribe to HSC here for detailed forecasts and maps across SEQLD! 
seqldrain19thmay2017[wp_ad_camp_4]

Rain increasing in SEQLD moderate falls possible2018-06-14T16:14:15+10:00
19 05, 2017

Very Dangerous Day ahead for the United States

2018-06-14T16:14:15+10:00

Today (Thursday May 18th) has the potential to be a very dangerous severe weather day across the United States with a “High Risk” being issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the first time in 5 years across the Central/Southern Plains, with the words “Tornado Outbreak” being used. Above image via the Storm Prediction Center Public Outlook

A 30% hatched tornado risk has been issued by the Storm Prediction Centre which is very significant. This essentially means 1 in 3 storms within that area should produce a tornado and its likely they’ll be strong. A 45% hatched hail risk has also been issued along with a 30% hatched wind risk.

Storm Prediction Center Tornado potential for May 18th

Storm Prediction Center Tornado potential for May 18th

 [wp_ad_camp_4]

 

Synoptically speaking, a dry line across South-West Kansas, Western Oklahoma is forecast to combine with a warm from spreading West to East through Kansas to create an area of extreme instability and potent turning winds in the atmosphere. This combination is likely to trigger thunderstorms in the early to mid afternoon across North-Western Oklahoma near the dry-line trough and push them quickly into Southern Kansas where conditions are favourable for rapid Supercell development and a dramatically increased tornado potential.

Instability chart (pink/skin colour is extreme instability) via PivotalWeather with overlay Dry-Line, Warm Front and Severe Threat features

Instability chart (pink/skin colour is extreme instability) via PivotalWeather with overlay Dry-Line, Warm Front and Severe Threat features

 

 [wp_ad_camp_1]  

From the Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service the threats are dramatic and justified… Giant hailstones greater than 4 inches in diameter (softball size / 10cm), destructive wind gusts of more than 80mph (130km/h) and numerous tornadoes, some likely to be long-tracked and strong. While there is some potential for storms to both develop too quickly and too close together which will lessen the overall threats… the outlook is beyond justified though.

With more than 1.5 million people under either a Moderate or High Risk, we can only hope that everyone stays safe and weather aware on what is likely in one way or another to be a very dangerous day.

Forecast HRRR 7pm radar showing discrete Supercells over NW Oklahoma and Southern Kansas via PivotalWeather

Forecast HRRR 7pm radar showing discrete Supercells over NW Oklahoma and Southern Kansas via PivotalWeather

 [wp_ad_camp_3]

 

Very Dangerous Day ahead for the United States2018-06-14T16:14:15+10:00
18 05, 2017

Heavy Rain Storms & Strong Winds begin in NQLD – CQLD

2018-06-14T16:14:15+10:00

[wp_ad_camp_2]

Heavy rain has been falling across large parts of North Tropical and Central Queensland during the past 12 hrs with up to 100mm recorded. Another 100mm is likely and up to 200mm possible during the rest of Thursday and through Friday. Strong winds have also been felt across the Whitsundays with an 82km hr gust recorded at Hamilton Island. Above image: Radar and Satellite via Weatherzone.

HSC detailed forecast blog for NQLD / CQLD can be found here! 

Almost exactly to the forecast hour rain began to fall at Townsville late on Wednesday! Locations right across the city have picked up a welcome 50mm to 11am on Thursday with another 100mm possible from the system. 
Further South along the coast has seen some good falls so far with Ayr recording 52mm, Bowen 126mm, Hamilton Island 92mm and Mackay 50mm. Through the inland notable falls have occurred with Collinsville 57mm, Charters Towers 55mm and Georgetown 42mm. Below image: rainfall totals to 9am Thursday via BOM
bomrainfalltotals17thmay2017

[wp_ad_camp_4]

Hamilton Island has also seen some very strong wind gusts to 82km hr. These winds are set to continue during Thursday and Friday and may reach damaging strengths of 100km hr. 

Widespread rain areas and isolated storms are continuing Thursday morning between Ingham and Rockhampton inland to Moranbah. The trough along the Central Coast is likely to intensify further late Thursday and early Friday. Widespread rain areas with heavy falls and isolated storms will continue across the region. There is the potential for another widespread 100mm with falls as high as 300mm along the Central Coast and Whitsundays between Mackay and Townsville. Below image: 3 day rainfall forecast via WindyTV
qld3dayrainforecastwindytv18thmay2017

[wp_ad_camp_2]
Townsville and Northern inland areas will welcome any drop they can get after missing out from TC Debbie. For the Central Coast and Whitsundays its not want they wanted after the severe flooding and destruction caused by TC Debbie just 7weeks ago. Many homes and business still have only temporary repairs ( tarps ) on their roofs. Heavy rain here is likely to cause further issues especially with flash flooding. 

Below image: HSC subscribers state rainfall forecast for Wednesday to 9am Thursday showing the accuracy of our forecasts issued 3 days ahead. Become a HSC subscriber here to gain access to detailed rainfall and storm forecast across the state! 

hscrainmapwed17thmay2017

Heavy Rain Storms & Strong Winds begin in NQLD – CQLD2018-06-14T16:14:15+10:00
17 05, 2017

200-400mm Forecast For Townsville, Mackay & Whitsundays

2018-06-14T16:14:15+10:00

[wp_ad_camp_2]

Latest live update for CQLD / NQLD at 11am on Thursday can be found here! 

The Central Coast of Queensland is forecast to be lashed with heavy rain and strong winds on Thursday and Friday with rainfall totals of 200-400mm expected. This wild weather comes as the area continues to rebuild after TC Debbie caused significant destruction to the Whitsundays and Central Coast  just 7 weeks ago. While Townsville almost completely missed out on rainfall from TC Debbie and has a very poor wet season, this heavy rain will be welcome… Not so for those further South! Above image via BSCH/GFS showing forecast rainfall totals.   

A Flood Watch has been issued by BOM for coastal areas between Tully and Gladstone with widespread totals of 100 to 200mm and isolated falls up to 400mm possible. Below image: 4 day rainfall forecast totals via BOM//PME

cqldrainbom17thmay2017[wp_ad_camp_4]

Global model data is continuing to focus the heaviest rainfall between Townsville and Mackay just 24hrs out ahead of the system. While the widespread 100 to 200mm shouldn’t cause any issues apart from some local flash flooding, the higher amounts of 400mm + could lead to some bigger flood problems. Areas such as the Whitsundays, Airlie Beach, Bowen and Proserpine still have repairs being carried out after TC Debbie. This heavy rainfall should it fall is likely to cause further issues especially with flash flooding, road closures and leaking roofs. 

Strong East to South East winds with gusts to 90km hr are possible across the Whitsundays and Central Coast during Thursday and Friday. Again any houses or properties with temporary repairs may have further issues from these winds should they develop. 

The weather will start to turn wet late Wednesday as a trough approaches the North Tropical and Central Coasts with scattered showers increasing. During Thursday conditions will deteriorate as the system intensifies along the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts.

Widespread rain is forecast to develop on Thursday between Rockhampton and Tully including inland areas to Clermont, Moranbah and Charters Towers. Widespread moderate 24 hour falls of 50mm are likely with heavy falls of 100mm likely from Townsville to Mackay. The Bowen and Whitsunday areas could see local 24 hour falls up to 200mm at this stage. Strong East to South East winds with up to 90km hr gusts may also develop along the trough through the Whitsundays during the afternoon and evening. 

[wp_ad_camp_4]

During Friday similar widespread moderate to heavy rainfall and totals are forecast across the same regions. The strong winds are expected to peak before lunch then slowly ease during the afternoon. Rain should begin to ease late Friday afternoon as the system slowly moves East offshore. 

By Saturday the wild weather will be all over with just the chance of a few showers. 

This type of weather is not unheard of at this time of year but is certainly out of the normal wet season. The river flooding will be considerably less than TC Debbie though areas under the heaviest rainfall are likely to see flash flooding develop. 

SUBSCRIBE here to HSC for our detailed rainfall and storm forecast maps across QLD including Email alerts! 

HSC Premium Membership badge

200-400mm Forecast For Townsville, Mackay & Whitsundays2018-06-14T16:14:15+10:00
16 05, 2017

Rain And Storms Through Southern & Central QLD This Week

2018-06-14T16:14:19+10:00
[wp_ad_camp_2]

While Northern and Central parts of Queensland brace for heavy rain and storms this week the Southern half of the state is also expecting some wet weather. Above image via Pivotal Weather – Rainfall forecast totals Red / Yellow = 50 to 100m, Purple 25 to 50mm, Blue up to 25mm. 

Shower and storm activity is likely develop as early as Wednesday in the South West of the state due to the arrival of a strong upper trough. Birdsville could see a gusty storm and up to 10mm of rain as the trough sweeps through.

A surface trough and upper trough intensify on Thursday through Western districts. Scattered showers, storms and rain areas will develop during the day through the Central West and South West. Some storms likely severe with moderate to locally heavy falls expected during the day and night. Thargomindah, Cunnamulla and Quilpie should see some good rain activity around with up to 25 – 50mm possible. Longreach and Charleville also both have good chances of seeing evening showers and storms develop.
Meanwhile rain areas will spread South into Emerald and Rockhampton with about 25mm expected.
Onshore winds increase along the Wide bay and Burnett and South East Coast with scattered showers developing Thursday afternoon. 

[wp_ad_camp_4]

Very early Friday morning a strong surface trough may develop near Gympie and the Sunshine Coast then moving South down the Coast through Brisbane, Ipswich and the Gold Coast during the day. Moderate falls of 25 – 50mm are likely across the South East Coast district with isolated locally higher totals are possible near the coast and hinterland. 
Onshore winds will strengthen along the coast with scattered showers and rain areas from Rockhampton south to Gympie with totals of 10 to 25mm. 
The inland trough running from Longreach down to Thargomindah will continue to generate a band of scattered showers, storms and rain areas with moderate falls. This activity will progress East during the day and evening reaching Charleville and St George. Rainfall totals up to 25mm in the South West. Scattered showers are possible through remaining Southern and Central inland where up to 10mm may fall. 

During Saturday isolated showers will clear towards the Coast East from Longreach to Charleville.  [wp_ad_camp_2] Forecast data is suggesting the the Darling Downs and Granite Belt and Wide bay and Burnett districts could receive the lowest rainfall totals of around 10 to 15mm. This may be due to being stuck between the inland trough and general onshore winds along the coast.

HSC Premium Membership provides detailed rainfall totals and storm forecast maps out to 4 days ahead across QLD along a week ahead outlook, long range outlook, video forecasts and email alerts. 

Subscribe to HSC here to gain access to our members content! 

Rain And Storms Through Southern & Central QLD This Week2018-06-14T16:14:19+10:00
16 05, 2017

Heavy Rain & Storms For Central & North QLD

2018-06-14T16:14:19+10:00

[wp_ad_camp_2]

Latest live update for CQLD / NQLD at 11am Thursday can be found here! 

FORECAST FOR CQLD / NQLD UPDATED 17/5/17 click here for details! 

Is this the long awaited heavy rain that Townsville missed out on from TC Debbie? Looks like it with between 100 and 200mm forecast to fall across large parts of Central and North Tropical Queensland this week! Above image via WindyTV. Subscribe here for HSC forecasts and maps! 

While Mackay the Central Coast and Whitsundays probably don’t need it, Townsville and Northern inland areas are desperate for rain after yet another failed wet season. 

Large areas from the South East Gulf through Northern inland and Central inland South to Emerald and Rockhampton will also get good rain with between 25 to 50mm forecast. 

The system will begin late on Wednesday as a surface trough moves West from the Coral Sea towards the Central and North Coasts. Scattered showers will develop along the coast late between Mackay and Cairns and are likely to turn into rain areas overnight.  

[wp_ad_camp_4]

On Thursday the surface trough and deep tropical feed intensifies between Rockhampton and Cairns as it crosses the coast heading further inland. Rain areas with moderate to locally heavy falls are likely along the coast, also inland along and West of the ranges. Afternoon storms will also fire up through the Northern inland and Central inland districts with some of them possibly SEVERE. The dry line at this stage for storms to develop is from the Southern Gulf through Richmond down to just West of Longreach. 

Not a whole lot changes on Friday with continued moderate to locally heavy rain and possible storms through the inland districts. On Saturday the system pushes towards the East and take the heavy rain offshore with mostly scattered showers expected.

Strong gusty South East winds are forecast to develop along the coast between Mackay and Townsville early Thursday and last through Friday.  Maximum temperatures will take a dive on both days to between 21c and 24c under the rain and cloud. 

Some flash flooding in the known trouble spots will likely become the main issue along with added stress to those who still have damaged houses and property after TC Debbie. 
[wp_ad_camp_2]
Detailed daily rainfall and storm forecast maps have been issued to subscribers covering this system right across QLD.  

Become a subscriber here to gain access the our Premium Membership service! 

Heavy Rain & Storms For Central & North QLD2018-06-14T16:14:19+10:00
12 05, 2017

A wet Mothers Day on the cards for SEQLD & NENSW

2018-06-14T16:14:20+10:00
[wp_ad_camp_2]

If you’re considering an outdoor event for this Mothers Day on Sunday in South East QLD and North East NSW you may want to reconsider…Above image via BOM. 

An upper level trough with cold air aloft will move across Northern NSW and Southern QLD during the weekend increasing instability levels. A deepening onshore flow is forecast to develop across both regions on Saturday before a surface trough and possible surface low develop along the South East QLD and North East NSW coasts over night Saturday and during Sunday. 

Showers are expected to develop along the coast South from Fraser Island on Saturday with increasing showers, light rain areas and possible isolated inland storms on Saturday afternoon and evening. This rainfall activity is more likely to occur across the Darling Downs and Granite Belt and the South East Coast districts of QLD. 

[wp_ad_camp_4]

Early Sunday morning the trough strengthens along the coast while producing continued scattered showers and light rain areas across far South East QLD with activity extending South into North East NSW. A small surface low may develop along the South East QLD / North East NSW coast and move South which would increase winds and rainfall with moderate falls possible from about Brisbane south to Port Macquarie.

Rainfall totals for Saturday and Sunday are 10 – 25mm in SEQLD, increasing to 25 – 50mm for NENSW with generally lighter falls up to 10mm inland.  

A more widespread significant rainfall event is forecast across QLD and NSW towards the end of next week. Once data becomes more confident we will release our forecasts. 

For detailed rainfall forecasts and maps across SEQLD and NENSW subscribe to Higgins Storm Chasing here! 

A wet Mothers Day on the cards for SEQLD & NENSW2018-06-14T16:14:20+10:00
27 04, 2017

Record 29th Australian Tropical Low may become a cyclone

2018-06-14T16:14:20+10:00

[wp_ad_camp_2] On Thursday a strong Tropical Low located 250km North West of Darwin is intensifying and forecast to possibly become a category 2 system during the next 24 to 48 hours. This is the 29th system which sets a new record as the highest number of observed Tropical Lows in one season. The most recent record of 28 was set during the 2010 – 11 season. Above image via Weatherzone.

Currently tracking towards the West South West across the Timor Sea, the Tropical Low is forecast by global models to enter a more favorable environment for intensification during the next 24 hours. Should the system strengthen enough it will be named Francis and become the 7th Tropical Cyclone in the Australia region for 2016 – 17.

[wp_ad_camp_4]

The current forecast track map by BOM issued at 11:08 am ACST Thursday 27 April 2017 suggests the Tropical Low could become a cyclone by  10pm tonight. It is then forecast to intensify further to a possible category 2 system on Friday with destructive winds between 125 – 164 km/h. The good news is it is not forecast to impact the Australian mainland as a cyclone and continue to track West South West in open water.

idd65001

Areas of moderate rainfall have been felt on the Tiwi Islands as a direct result from the system. This rainfall has stayed just offshore from Darwin so far with the possibility of some showers and storms developing across far Northern NT during the next 24 hours. 

While the current number of cyclones stands at 6 this season and well below the long term average of 11, the higher number of Tropical Lows have delivered widespread above average rainfall to large parts of Australia. A blessing in disguise to yield so much rainfall without the added damage and destruction if many more had become cyclones? There is a slight chance that 1 or 2 more tropical cyclones may develop during May however long range global data suggests nothing of concern at this stage. Below image via BOM showing the above average rainfall across WA, NT and SA from October 2016 to March 2017. This rainfall was largely due to the higher number of Tropical Lows along with 2 cyclones which crossed the coast in the Northern and Western regions. 

bom6monthrainfalloct2016tomarch2017

[wp_ad_camp_4]

For Tropical Low and Cyclone forecasts and maps across Australia become a HSC Premium Member HERE!

Record 29th Australian Tropical Low may become a cyclone2018-06-14T16:14:20+10:00
11 04, 2017

New Zealand braces for Cook – 2nd system in a week!

2018-06-14T16:14:20+10:00

After being severely impacted by Ex-TC Debbie, New Zealanders and once again those on the North Island are being urged to prepare again as Cook or the remnants of Cook look set to directly impact New Zealand over the next several days. Above image via WindyTV (Euro Model wind gusts for 6pm Thursday – aqua blue >100km/h)

Tropical Cyclone Cook developed over the Vanuatu Islands during Sunday, before heading straight for New Caledonia where the system was upgraded to a Severe Tropical Cyclone prior to landfall. Now the system has continued on its Southerly track and according to global models, its likely to make a direct impact or “landfall” over the North Island as either a Sub-Tropical Cyclone (cyclone that maintains cyclone strength over sub-tropical waters) or an Ex-Tropical Cyclone with severe characteristics. Its not just the cyclone New Zealanders need to prepare for….

New Zealand Metservice Severe Weather Outlook

New Zealand Metservice Severe Weather Outlook

 

[wp_ad_camp_1]

 

WEDNESDAY:

A low pressure trough associated wit a strong tropical low is forecast to directly impact the entire Country during Wednesday. The low itself is expected to linger offshore for a little longer, but the trough is likely to sweep the country during the day bringing widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are likely to be accompanied by heavy rain and potentially damaging winds, however widespread rain areas could result in flooding throughout the day with widespread falls of 50-100mm likely and isolated to scattered falls of 100-150mm+ possible.

THURSDAY / FRIDAY:

Then comes Cook for a double hit.. Cook / Ex-Cook according to global models is expected to make landfall across the Northern Coastline of the North Island during Thursday evening / night with all heavyweight models that cover the area in agreement for this. The system on GFS and EC models is packing a huge punch with widespread swaths of damaging winds, and destructive to very destructive winds of up to 150-170km/h expected near the “eye”. These kinds of gusts are likely to bring down powerlines cutting power for several days, potentially blow roofs off houses and bring down trees. Further widespread heavy rain is expected across the North Island as the system tracks straight through the heart of NZ towards Wellington and along the NZ South Island Eastern Coastline. Damaging to destructive winds accompanying it the whole time. Falls of 50-100mm are likely once again with isolated falls of up to 200mm possible. Dangerous seas and potential storm surges along the entire Northern and Eastern Coastline of NZ is expected.

Flooding is a huge risk with this system, not only due to widespread 3-day totals of 100-200mm likely and scattered falls of up to 300mm but due to the ground being saturated from last weeks deluge. Some flooded areas may have not fully recovered yet and could flood at the first sign of rain. People are urged to prepare now if they haven’t already and brace for a very chaotic few days to end the week.

"EC

 

[wp_ad_camp_3]

New Zealand braces for Cook – 2nd system in a week!2018-06-14T16:14:20+10:00
10 04, 2017

Cyclone Warning for Tiwi Islands, Frances could be named Tuesday!

2018-06-14T16:14:21+10:00

The Tiwi Islands have been placed under a Cyclone Warning as a strong Tropical Low looks to intensify into a Category 1 system tomorrow (Tuesday) prior to landfall. North-Western Northern Territory regions have also been placed under a Cyclone Watch with gales and heavy rain likely to lash Darwin and areas South of Darwin. Above image via Weatherzone

As of 6pm, Invest 96P was located approximately 340km North-North-East of Darwin, in the Central Arafura Sea. The system remains very unorganised and messy on satellite imagery and animation, however a weak rotation can still be detected amongst the widespread messy convection. Signs this afternoon (Monday afternoon), though the form of lightning and bursts of convection, indicate the system is about to go through an intensification period which has a high chance of resulting in Invest 96P becoming Tropical Cyclone Frances.

 

BOM Forecast Track for Tropical Low / Cyclone Frances issued 5:15pm ACST Monday, April 10th

BOM Forecast Track for Tropical Low / Cyclone Frances issued 5:15pm ACST Monday, April 10th

 

[wp_ad_camp_3]

 

The system is currently tracking South-South-West but is expected to interact with a ridging pattern over Central Australia resulting in a slightly more South-West which has the potential to place it directly over the Tiwi Islands as a Category 1 system. If this was the case, damaging wind gusts are likely across the islands with a weak storm surge resulting in shallow inundation along the direct Northern Coastline of the Islands. Heavy rain and squally winds are expected to lash Darwin and surrounds where a Severe Weather Warning is current. Flash Flooding is likely for some regions with falls of 100-200mm likely, and isolated falls to 300mm possible over the net 2-3 days.

 

Forecast 3-day rainfall via ECMWF (WindyTV) - red/pink >100mm, light pink >200mm, purple >300mm

Forecast 3-day rainfall via ECMWF (WindyTV) – red/pink >100mm, light pink >200mm, purple >300mm

 

[wp_ad_camp_4]

 

During Wednesday and beyond, there is some discrepancy with forecast and heavyweight forecast models, where its about 50% either way – half of them (and half of the heavyweights) are pushing the system West and into open waters where it could intensify into a Category 4 or 5 system but impact nobody (like Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie), the other half have the system glancing the Kimberley Coast and tracking somewhat down the Coast towards the Pilbara. This will remain up in the air until Frances enters the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and its interaction with a high pressure ridge becomes evident.

 

Cyclone Warning for Tiwi Islands, Frances could be named Tuesday!2018-06-14T16:14:21+10:00
Go to Top