Issued Tuesday 18th July 2017. The first chance of snow for Winter 2017 is possible on the New South Wales Northern Tablelands during Wednesday! While the Australian Alps have received a heavy snow dumping over night Monday and during Tuesday, the coldest air mass won’t arrive up North until early Wednesday. Above image: % of models forecasting precipitation on Wednesday via BSCH/OCF. Subscribe to Higgins Storm Chasing here for detailed snow forecast text & maps!
It’s a 50/50 chance at this stage whether or not snow will fall on the Northern Tablelands however global model data is certainly suggesting there is a good possibility. The mid to low level temperatures are about 2c warmer than we would like to see before locking in definite snow falls and atmospheric moisture is slightly on the dry side. Places for snow fall will be limited to the highest elevations above 1200 meters which puts Guyra and Ben Lomond into contention.
There is an 85% chance of precipitation at Guyra with 1.5mm forecast, should this fall as snow the conversion is 1:10 ratio so around 1.5cm. A minimum of 1c and a maximum of just 5c is forecast so it is definitely cold enough at the surface for snow. There is some variability in exact timing with the best chances between 4am and 10am possibly extending out to 4pm on Wednesday.
Snow is highly unlikely further North at Mt Mckenzie near Tenterfield or Stanthorpe due to slightly warmer air and lack of any moisture or precipitation expected. It will however be a very cold day across the Darling Downs and Granite Belt with strong South Westerly winds. Toowoomba and Warwick are going for a top of just 14c while Stanthorpe will struggle to get over 10c. The wind chill factor will take up to 10c off these forecast temperatures so standing outside will have a feels like of less than 5c all day.