Posted 6pm 11th March 2018. A Tropical disturbance Invest 90p has developed in the North East Coral Sea near the Solomon Islands on Sunday. It is forecast to intensify into a Tropical Low during Monday while heading South. Above satellite image via BSCH.
During Tuesday the system has the greatest chance of further developing in a possible category 1 cyclone while continuing to tracking more South West towards the Queensland Coast. On Wednesday global model data becomes uncertain with the strength of the system as either being a Tropical Low or category 1 cyclone. ALL global data remains confident on a continued South West trajectory towards the Central to South East QLD coasts.
Due to an unfavourable mid and upper level atmosphere with moderate to strong vertical wind shear, the system is highly unlikely to develop into a significant tropical cyclone.
People living along and near the Central and South East Queensland coasts should closely monitor forecasts for further updates and changes in the coming few days.
Due to global model uncertainty on Thursday the system MAY still impact the QLD coast as a low or weak cyclone, though it is likely to turn towards the South and remain offshore. We anticipate that by Monday morning a more confident forecast scenario will be issued. HSC Premium Members will have access to our in-house Tropical Low or Tropical Cyclone track and intensity forecast maps from Monday onwards. Subscribe HERE to Higgins Storm Chasing.