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Issued on the 2nd October 2017 for cyclone season starting the 1st of November 2017 ending 30th of April 2018.
***UPDATED: A La Nina watch is current. There is up to a 65% chance of La Nina developing during November & December. If La Nina develops it may increase the risk of Tropical Low & Tropical Cyclone activity across the Australia region from January to April.***
This year we are predicting a total of 11 cyclones to develop in the Australian region which is typically near average. Due to above average ocean sea surface temperatures surrounding most of Australia, there is a higher chance that more cyclones will become severe – Category 3 or higher. Almost 50% or 5 of the forecast 11 are expected to develop into a severe category 3+ system. This will pose a higher risk of damaging impacts to land areas in Australia with 5 cyclones predicted to cross the coast.
• Eastern region including the Coral Sea and Gulf of Carpentaria – 4 cyclones, 2 severe with 2 potentially crossing the Queensland coast.
• Northern region – 2 cyclones, 1 severe with 1 potentially crossing the NT coast.
• Western region – 5 cyclones, 2 severe with 2 potentially crossing the WA coast.
2016 – 17 cyclone season outlook map and seasonal review
Eastern region QLD: Total number of cyclones 2 (Alfred and Debbie). Total number of coastal crossings 2 (Gulf and CQLD Coast). Total number of severe 1 (Debbie Cat 4).
Northern region NT: Total number of cyclones 2 (Blanch and Frances). Total number of coastal crossings 1 (Tiwi Islands). Total number of severe 1 (Frances Cat 3).
Western Region WA: Total number of cyclones 5 (Yvette, 22U, Caleb, Ernie, Greg). Total number of crossings 1 (Port Hedland). Total number of severe 1 (Ernie Cat 5).
Tropical Lows: An Australian record number of 30 Tropical Lows were identified many which impacted Western Australia and the Northern Territory with heavy rainfall.