Eastern NSW, in particular Central Eastern NSW (from about Gosford to Nowra) is looking at some very heavy to extreme rainfall accumulations over the next several days. The combination of a Black Nor’Easter and convergence zone will lead to excessive rainfall occurring over the same areas, leading to major flooding becoming a risk.



Widespread falls across Eastern NSW including fire zones in the South East are likely to be in the 100-200mm range. Very heavy falls on top of what has already fallen of 200-300mm are likely over the Mid North Coast & Hunter. The heaviest rain in the vicinity of 200-400mm likely and potential falls of up to 500-600mm is expected from Sydney / Gosford down to Nowra. This may include back to back days of 200mm+ over the weekend for the Illawarra.


This kind of rainfall has the potential to produce MAJOR flooding across a very populated area. Flash flooding is inevitable with this kind of rainfall however widespread minor to moderate creek and river flooding and some MAJOR river and creek flooding is also LIKELY depending on where the highest falls occur.

It is also worth noting that landslides are likely over Southern NSW and potentially over the Blue Mountains with heavy rainfall likely impacting fire zones and the unsettled & fragile ground giving way.



There is also the potential for some waterspouts along the NSW Coast from the Hunter to the Illawarra along the convergence zone where winds will be turning with height. This isn’t a big threat, but its one worth noting.

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