Temperatures are forecast to soar across VIC and mainly inland NSW during Monday, leading to a notable increase in fire dangers across the region. Above image showing the forecast maximums for NSW and VIC via BSCH (purple indicates >38ºc).

A low pressure trough is forecast to be situated between the Kimberley in WA, stretching down into SA. This trough is expected to precede a large cloud band which is maintaining high moisture levels. As the trough pushes towards the East and North-East throughout the day, hot North to North-West winds are forecast to feed into all of Victoria and much of inland NSW pushing the temperatures into the high 30’s and possibly even low 40’s for some regions.

These hot and dry winds are forecast to combine with grass and foliage which has been boosted in nutrients from the Winter rains. The short version of this means that foliage is more flammable and could start fires much quicker than usual. This has lead to an increased in fire dangers across Southern Inland NSW and much of VIC with most regions seeing a Very High Fire Danger, while the Mallee district in NW VIC is under a total fire ban and Severe Fire Danger.

 

Fire Danger Ratings for Victoria via the County Fire Authority

Fire Danger Ratings for Victoria via the County Fire Authority

 

Fire Danger Ratings by the NSW Rural Fire Service

Fire Danger Ratings by the NSW Rural Fire Service

 

Its expected that later in the day and overnight, as that trailing cloud band moves through, that numerous thunderstorms are likely to develop. Some of these storms are expected to become severe with damaging winds a key threat. The combination of wind and lightning could lead to further issues, but there is also expected to be some rainfall with these storms which may limit that threat.

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