A flood watch has been issued for the Tropical North QLD Coast between Ingham and Daintree following high confidence between models indicating between 75 and 150mm is likely to fall across the region.
Catchments likely to be affected include: • Daintree River • Mossman River • Barron River • Mulgrave and Russell Rivers • Johnstone River • Tully River • Murray River • Herbert River
Between Friday (today) and Tuesday, models are indicating that a deep onshore flow, combining with a week monsoon trough situated North of the Peninsula is expected to produce a significant increase in instability across Cape York Peninsula, the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Tropical North QLD Coast. This instability is expected to increase the potential for thunderstorms, although most storm activity is likely to be focused around the Western Peninsula in relation to a weak surface trough developing. The Tropical North QLD Coast however should see an increase in showers and possible rain areas.
The heaviest rain at this stage is likely to be on Sunday, where models are indicating falls of 30-70mm becoming widespread between Cooktown and Ingham, along with isolated higher falls being possible around Port Douglas and Innisfail in particular. The other several days are expected to mostly produce light falls (especially for North QLD standards).
So why a flood watch? Due to recent torrential rainfall across the Tropical NQLD Coast where falls of 700-1000mm occurred leading to major flooding… the ground is still fully saturated and virtually any sudden bursts of rain will likely cause flash flooding as the ground has no soakage capacity. Continuous rainfall (as expected Saturday night into Monday morning) will also likely lead to run off occurring and flowing into the only recent recovered river systems leading to them rapidly rising once again. Although major flooding isn’t expected… some river and creek rises could lead to localised flooding around their banks (NB: Where this occurs is highly dependant on where the heaviest rain occurs).