After a fairly tame but warm and humid period since the turn of the New Year, it looks like the heat is going to ramp up and the storms are set to return to those in NENSW and SEQLD! Above image: Instability for Saturday via BSCH.

 

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Over the next few days, a surface through is forecast to sit over the Northern Tablelands and Granite Belt generating a very warm and humid flow over the South East pocket of QLD and North East NSW. While temperatures over the remainder of the working week are expected to be fairly modest for this time of year, the humidity will make things slightly uncomfortable at times. These conditions should help generate some isolated to scattered storms along the Ranges with some cells becoming severe. Storms could struggle to reach the Coast though due to a mid level rotation which is producing unfavourable steering winds.

Instability for Thursday (imaged) with storm potential (circled) -  similar during Friday also via BSCH

Instability for Thursday (imaged) with storm potential (circled) – similar during Friday also via BSCH

 

 

Its over the weekend though that conditions ramp up. The trough is expected to become more consolidated and that will help temperatures rise into the mid to high 30’s across SEQLD & NENSW. This rise in temperatures, whilst retaining moisture levels should lead to a significant spike in instability leading to scattered severe storms and some possibly dangerous.

OCF Forecast Maximums for Saturday via BSCH

OCF Forecast Maximums for Saturday via BSCH

 


During Sunday, forecasts are a bit trickier with models spilt 50/50 on the outcome. Scenario 1 has the cool change moving through during the early morning leading to a cooler and calmer day, scenario 2 has the cool change moving through between 4 & 7pm in SEQLD which will lead to another hot day with maximums into the mid 30’s and another day of severe / possibly dangerous storms! 
Either way, storms are expected to be around regardless of Sunday’s outcome. 

OCF Forecast Maximums for Sunday via BSCH (a combination of several models averaged out). Generally cooler conditions are expected over NENSW but SEQLD is split.

OCF Forecast Maximums for Sunday via BSCH (a combination of several models averaged out). Generally cooler conditions are expected over NENSW but SEQLD is split.