Large parts of Queensland, particularly South-Eastern, Central-Eastern and Northern QLD are expected to have a very wet and stormy start to the New Year as a slow moving storm-bearing system looks set to sweep the State! Above image: 8 day rainfall via BOM.

 

 

It looks as though large parts of Queensland are in for a wet and stormy start to 2018 as a slow moving system brings rain and storms each day to large parts of the State. The trough is forecast to initiate over South-Western, Southern Inland and South-Eastern QLD on New Year’s eve before slowly moving North though Inland QLD whilst also remaining along the Ranges across Eastern QLD. Areas North and East of this trough are likely to be under the influence of a very warm and humid airmass which is likely to produce widespread very high to extreme instability across those areas leading to showers, rain areas and thunderstorms (some severe) each day. 

 

Instability charts for Tuesday (January 2nd) showing high to very high instability (purple) and moderate to high instability (blue) across QLD

Instability charts for Tuesday (January 2nd) showing high to very high instability (purple) and moderate to high instability (blue) across QLD

 

 

Heavy rain is forecast to be a prominent threat with any thunderstorms (severe or non-severe) across the week. This is likely to lead to widespread good rainfall across Eastern and Northern parts of the State where falls of 25-50mm are likely. Further ‘better’ falls due to more consistent storm activity of 50mm+ are expected across the Northern Tropics and South-East quarter of the State. Damaging winds are also possible with any severe storms, and on various days large hail will be a threat. 

Across South-Eastern QLD in particular, the addition of both a weak cool change and some upper level support around mid week is expected to increase the threat of severe thunderstorms. There is also the ‘possibility’ of more dangerous thunderstorms (although this is purely based off current data and may be subject to change).. 

 

Instability charts for Wednesday (January 3rd) showing extreme instability (purple) and moderate to high instability (blue) across South-East QLD

Instability charts for Wednesday (January 3rd) showing extreme instability (purple) and moderate to high instability (blue) across South-East QLD

 

 

Its important to note that the rainfall potential stated above is spread across 7 days or more, and that not all areas are expected to see rainfall each day. Its also important to note that the heavier totals will be highly subject to direct thunderstorm impacts. Whilst storms are expected “most days” for the majority of Eastern and Northern QLD, its still important to check the daily forecasts as the threat areas may shift each day. For access to these detailed daily forecasts CLICK HERE.

 

"Forecast