While many areas have benefited from Ex-TC Trevor and the trough associated with the system, there is an area over the Warrego and Maranoa region (South of Charleville to Toowoomba) that has greatly missed out. Above image showing the 7pm rain simulation for Southern QLD via Windy.


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Ex-TC Trevor has pretty much followed the script with models. Large areas of Western, Central West, South West and South East QLD have seen beneficial rain. That was what was always forecast. The Darling Downs has seen patchy good rain which was forecast. The Central Highlands have some potential coming up. Its been Southern Inland QLD (Warrego & Maranoa South of Roma to Charleville) and the Southern Darling Downs / Granite Belt which were always on the lighter side for rainfall from this system.


Well there is hope on Friday. A new surface trough is forecast to develop and feed off lingering moisture from the remnants of Trevor. This is likely to combine with some upper support further South to generate weak instability over Southern QLD, moderate to strong instability over Central and Northern Inland areas into the Peninsula. This trough is LIKELY to generate a band of showers, rain areas and storms during the day which will slowly progress East.

Instability and surface wind chart showing a trough over Inland areas with instability developing over the Central corridor of QLD. Image via BSCH


While Central and Southern areas (Longreach, Blackall, Winton, Charleville) are likely to benefit from some follow up rain after a 1 day reprieve. The focus will be on Southern areas which could see 15-30mm likely (in the yellow shaded areas) and locally higher falls of up to 50mm under storms. Better falls are expected up until Central QLD where 25-50mm is likely and isolated higher falls under storms. But for an area that missed out, 15-30mm could be just enough to make this a half reasonable system in the end. The Quilpie, Bollon, Thargomindah pocket may miss out on a bit with activity developing there, but St George, Miles, Goondiwindi, Surat and surrounds should benefit. The Granite Belt could miss out a little bit, but across Friday and Saturday some half decent falls are possible there – especially with storms (it will be a 2 day combo, not a 1 day wonder). 

OCF Forecast Rainfall (which is typically conservative) for QLD on Friday showing a good band of rain through Southern Inland, Central and Northern QLD. Image via BSCH