Issued Tuesday September 11th 2018. Hurricane Olivia is also posing a threat in the Central Pacific as it bares down on Hawaii, adding to what has been a chaotic calendar year for the small islands. Above image – Simulated satellite imagery for Wednesday as Olivia makes a landfall over Hawaii.


Hurricane Olivia has definitely been ignored given the talk around other systems. Olivia though has been a steady system after it developed West of Mexico last week and rapidly developed into a Major Category 3 Hurricane. The system has then undergone a very slow and gradual weakening process whilst maintaining a West to North West track towards Hawaii. For some time now, models have been very stubborn with a landfall directly over the Hawaiian islands, and that stubbornness seems like its going to be accurate as most models including the official tracking by the National Hurricane Center place Olivia directly over the main islands during Wednesday morning local time.

Forecast winds via the US NAM model showing Olivia making a landfall over Hawaii on Wednesday morning. Image via Windy


Thankfully, what is now (at the time of this post) Hurricane Olivia, will weaken back to Tropical Storm strength due to a combination of a slightly unfavourable environment and geographic terrain. The system will pose a threat for damaging winds, but the main threat is expected to come from the rainfall where models are indicating falls of up to 100mm over the space of a 24hr period seeming likely for isolated areas. It doesn’t seem like much but locally heavier falls are possible courtesy of orographic lifting, and the fact its falling in a short period of time may lead to localised flash flooding and some land slips.

After Hawaii, Olivia will continue West and weaken into nothing by the weekend. 

Official Forecast Track for Olivia via the National Hurricane Center