Issued 28th March 2018. With plenty of media hype and scaremongering forecasts for Easter here is the current outlook from now until Tuesday 3rd of April 2018. Above image: Total 6 day rainfall forecast TOTAL from Wednesday to next Tuesday.
EX TC Nora a weak low is located in the Southern Gulf of Carpentaria on Wednesday moving quickly West. The system poses NO THREAT to QLD and the NT with some moderate winds and showers expected across the Gulf.
EX TC Iris a low pressure system is 680km North East of Fraser Island moving towards the South West. The system is NOT forecast to re develop into a cyclone. The low is forecast to move South West during Thursday before turning towards the North West on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. It MAY near the Central to North QLD Coast between Mackay and Cairns on Monday and Tuesday but there is a lot of uncertainty of this scenario.
An increase in swell and strong South East winds is expected along the South East Coast including Fraser Island on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Showers are also likely to continue along the South East Coast from Saturday to Tuesday. 6 days totals around 50mm expected on the Sunshine Coast and Fraser Island tending to around 25mm for Brisbane and the Gold Coast with even less inland.
Central Coast districts between Fraser Island and Mackay strong South East winds and scattered showers are expected from Friday until Tuesday as the system moves past well offshore. Most 5 day rainfall totals are forecast to be between 25 to 50mm here.
Remaining Central Coast to North Coasts districts between Mackay and Cooktown will HIGHLY depend on the exact movements of the low during Monday and Tuesday. At this stage the most likely scenario is an increase in strong South East winds and showers from Friday to Sunday with 25 to 50mm expected. On Monday and Tuesday if the low stays well offshore like a majority of models predict then South East winds and showers will continue with an additional 25mm. IF the system crosses the coast then a massive increase in rainfall of between 300 to 600mm MIGHT occur between Tully and Mackay. I wouldn’t be delaying or changing my Central to North QLD holiday plans based of this chance forecast!
Some showers and storms are also likely to continue across the Peninsula district during the outlook period.
Temperatures across the Eastern and Northern half of the state are forecast to be between 27 to 33C during Easter outlook period, these increase up to 38C in the South West of the state.
Mostly fine conditions are forecast across all Central, Southern and Western inland districts with just a slight chance of the odd shower or non severe storm during the next 6 days.