Models are suggesting for a second weekend running that a tropical low is likely to form around the Solomon Islands. Above image via BSCH showing the wind streamlines at their forecast maximum intensity on Wednesday

Global models are in agreement that during late Friday or more likely during Saturday, a tropical low is likely to develop to the South-West of the Solomon Islands in the Northern Coral Sea. All models do have this system tracking shifting South to South-East so it is LIKELY to remain offshore from Queensland and pose no threat to the Coast (at this stage – things can change).

 

Models are also in agreement that during the early stages of next week, that conditions are expected to be favourable for the system to begin intensifying and there is a chance (albeit small) that it could become a weak Tropical Cyclone near New Caledonia. If it doesn’t become a cyclone (as stated is a small chance), then strong tropical low formation is expected.

 

GFS Sunday wind observations showing the full formation of the Low

GFS Sunday wind observations showing the full formation of the Low

Around the system (regardless of strength), intense to dangerous sea conditions with large waves are likely. Thunderstorms are also likely to develop around the system and these could become severe with heavy rain and damaging winds. Heavy rain is also likely. 

At this stage there is no threat to the Queensland Coast, however the clockwise rotation of the system may indirectly impact Queenslands Eastern seaboard but drawing in extra moisture to a surface trough leading to shower and thunderstorm developments.

Rainfall totals via PivotalWeather showing widespread falls over 200mm (yellow) and up to 700mm

Rainfall totals via PivotalWeather showing widespread falls over 200mm (yellow) and up to 700mm

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