South Australia is expected to see widespread severe and possibly even dangerous thunderstorms during Monday as an intense storm bearing system moves across the State! Above image SWEAT values via GFS / BSCH.

 

Monday is set to be wild across South Australia with all global models in agreement that a very strong surface trough linked with a low pressure system is set to move across the State. This system is likely to draw in a significant increase in moisture from the South and South West which will combine with an increase in upper level support and good surface heating over Inland areas to produce widespread moderate to strong instability across the State. This instability is likely to result in widespread thunderstorms across the majority of the State, especially across Inland areas where the combination of heat, moisture and trough positioning is at its greatest.

 

A strong mid level jet (winds in the mid levels of the atmosphere) is expected to coincide with storm potential. This will likely combine with dry low levels of the atmosphere and increased energy above the freezing level. What this all means is that storms will have an increased potential for damaging straight line winds and large hail, while microbursts will also be an increased threat where destructive winds of 125km/h+ are possible (this of course isn’t a guarantee, but an increased risk). Storms will be faster moving too because of that mid level jet, but reasonable rainfall totals are still possible. 

Forecast sounding for Central SA, Monday afternoon via GFS. This is showing dry low levels in the atmosphere, strong straight line winds in the mid levels and increased energy above 0ºc, all leading to an increased risk of damaging to destructive winds and large hail

 

The majority of activity is expected to shift away from major populated areas such as Adelaide City, Adelaide Metro, the West Coast and South East. Places like Woomera, Coober Pedy, Tarcoola, Port Augusta, Oodnadatta, Roxby Downs, Woomera, The Eyre Peninsula region, Renmark and surrounds are in the firing line and this will mean there is of course a chance of power outages. Please follow updates and warnings throughout the day to ensure you can take the right precautions to prepare.

Thunderstorm threat potential via EC / Windy