Posted 20th March 2018. REFER TO OUR LATEST UPDATE ISSUED ON 21/3/18 HERE! A significant cyclone is currently forecast to develop by a majority of global models and it could heavily impact Queensland and the Northern Territory later this week. Above image: GFS forecast satellite simulator via Tropical Tidbits showing a severe cyclone in the Gulf of Carpentaria on Saturday. 

On Tuesday a monsoon trough extends across the top of Australia through the Arafura Sea, Northern Gulf of Carpentaria and into the Northern Coral Sea. A Tropical Low is located North of Thursday Island along the trough which is forecast to move West into the Arafura Sea during the next few days.

The tropical low is forecast to intensify further into a strong tropical low on Thursday to the North of the Northern Territory in the Arafura Sea. There is a moderate to high forecast risk that the system will become a cyclone during Friday while moving towards the South East. The cyclone once developed will be named Nora by BOM.

On Saturday global models remain very confident that TC Nora will have formed and continue to intensify into a severe category 3 system in the Gulf Of Carpentaria. The exact forecast track of the system between ECMWF and GFS models is varying slightly at this point between the Western or Centre of the Gulf. Ensemble global model data shows all of the Gulf region is at risk of potential severe cyclonic impacts.

People living in the Northern Territory’s Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts and in Queensland’s Gulf Country and Peninsula districts need to be aware of the potential severe cyclone forecast. Ensure you have your cyclone emergency kit and emergency plan ready,  stay tuned for further updates. Higgins Storm Chasing will issue our in-house tropical low and tropical cyclone forecast intensity track maps either today or Wednesday for the system. These maps are available on our website by logging in here!