05 Jun Snow Outlook & Potential Chase Information for June 8 to 11, 2021
A significant upper level weather system is expected to sweep across South Eastern Australia during the period of June 8th to 11th 2021. This system is expected to be very favourable for producing snowfall across the NSW Ranges, Victorian Alpine, Tasmanian Highlands and possible into the Granite Belt region of QLD. Whilst this system is nothing exceptional in terms of peak Winter standards – its quite a strong system for this early in the year and has the potential to produce some incredible snowfall accumulations.
DISCLAIMER: THIS INFORMATION (TIMING & INTENSITY) IS VALID AS OF SATURDAY MORNING, JUNE 5 2021 – FORECAST DATA CAN, AND WILL LIKELY, CHANGE BETWEEN SATURDAY & TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THIS INFORMATION AND NOT RELY SOLELY ON THIS BLOG! AN ADDITIONAL BLOG MAY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY WITH ‘NEW’ INFORMATION.
NORTH EAST NSW / QLD GRANITE BELT
We FINALLY have some model agreement as of Saturday morning. The previous 5 days have had either the ECMWF or GFS model having snowfall across the region, but neither even remotely similar snowfall accumulations until now. Models are in agreement that a rain band associated with the front should pass through the region late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning – this front is UNLIKELY to contain any snowfall but it will drag the colder air aloft over the region behind it. During Wednesday morning, critical temperatures in the 850mb level are expected to drop to freezing or just below freezing across the Northern Tablelands and Granite Belt areas – this will mean that ANY precipitation from after sunrise Wednesday morning will become favourable for turning to SNOW over these areas. Snowfall is expected to occur on and off over the Northern Tablelands during Wednesday from after sunrise until sunset with the more persistent snowfall occurring around Walcha, North & South of Armidale, Guyra, Ben Lomond. Snowfall is possible around Armidale township, Glen Innes township and Deepwater township. Snowfall is expected to significantly increase over the Northern Tablelands and spread into the Granite Belt overnight Wednesday into Thursday with prolonged, persistent snowfall which may include moderate to heavy bursts of snow. The best snow will be over the Northern Tablelands which includes Guyra, Ben Lomond, Armidale, Walcha, surrounding Tamworth, Nowendoc, Ebor, surrounding Inverell, Deepwater, Glen Innes, Tenterfield (Mt Mackenzie) with snow flurries also possible around the Granite Belt which will include Eukey, Wallangarra and MAYBE Stanthorpe – but more likely over the other two areas (see image below for 10am Thursday prediction). Snow is then expected to persist throughout Thursday across these areas which will help snow not only settle, but build on the ground as temperatures may struggle to even get above freezing over the Northern Tablelands. Snow is also more likely later on Thursday over the Granite Belt. Snow is then expected to taper off into Friday night as the coldest air aloft starts to move away and it may even be a fine and sunny but bitterly cold start to Friday morning.
EVENT TIME: Wednesday morning until Friday morning.
PEAK SNOW TIMING: Wednesday afternoon / evening and throughout Thursday.
BEST LOCATIONS: Guyra & Ben Lomond. HSC staff will be situated at Guyra and will be holding snow parties around the Guyra & Ben Lomond areas throughout both days!!! Walcha would be next in line which is about an hour South of Guyra. Mt Mackenzie would be the best shorter distance location from South East QLD, near Tenterfield – although Guyra is around an hour from Tenterfield and the difference in snowfall would be well worth the drive. Armidale & Glen Innes would only be good locations for accommodation and seeing snowfall from your accommodation. If you are in Guyra or Ben Lomond – its advised to head to the Guyra Bowls Club or the Ben Lomond Cricket Oval. Both locations have a lot of widespread room which will allow kids to run around, build snowmen and ample parking space (although crowds could build the longer you wait).
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS: 10CM+ forecast on all models CURRENTLY. Some models pushing 25cm!
The Central Tablelands have been more of a ‘lock’ with snowfall for a longer period of time than the Northern Tablelands with the only thing differing between runs and models, being the overall snowfall amounts. Models have remained in relatively close agreement for the last few days which has lead to increased confidence across this region. The front is expected to move through on Tuesday and there is a chance that some snow flurries may develop over the most snow-prone areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A break in the weather is expected on Wednesday morning before showers and snow increase Wednesday afternoon across the region and then remain persistent from Wednesday night until Thursday morning. Thursday has ‘some’ model disagreement due to the exact poisoning of a low pressure system with the ECMWF model indicating snow flurries being possible based on any moisture (it’ll be cold enough, just need the moisture) and the GFS model indicating snowfall throughout Thursday. We will have a better grasp of this potential for Thursday specifically during Sunday and Monday. Heavy snow is possible at times across Wednesday and its not unheard of for this region to see heavy snow in these more robust type event. Friday is also somewhat questionable with GFS maintaining snowfall and ECMWF seeing snow leave the region.
EVENT TIME: Tuesday night until Friday morning
PEAK SNOW TIMING: Wednesday, but dont rule Thursday out. Wednesday is the LOCK though.
BEST LOCATIONS: Lithgow, Oberon & Jenolan Caves, Spring Hill (South of Orange) are the absolute best locations. Blayney, Neville & Sunny Corner will also likely see snowfall for prolonged periods of time and enough for ground coverage to build considerably… but the other 3 locations are far more likely to see much better snowfall. Orange, Bathurst and areas immediately surrounding these towns are also likely to see snow but in terms of chasing and seeing – youre better off finding accommodation in these towns and then driving to the better locations listed. Snow is possible over the Blue Mountains, but its advised to head further West.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS: 20-30CM forecast on all models currently. Locally up to 40CM+ possible!