Issued 29th Oct 19. It has been a very long time waiting for any decent rainfall across Central West & South West Queensland districts. Many locations have not had any more than 10mm in total over the past 5 to 7 months. Given the high confidence of forecast data and modelling that is all about to change over the next 3 days. Some places could see 50 – 100mm fall especially under storms though more widespread falls of 20-50mm are more likely! If we don’t see a number of paddocks covered in water during this system we will be disappointed. Above image: 3 day ECMWF rainfall forecast totals from weatherzone.com.au
An upper level trough is developing across Western QLD during Tuesday causing light patchy rain areas to start with. This upper level feature is dragging in high amounts of moisture from the North West or the Tropics. A low pressure system is expected to develop from Tuesday afternoon over the South West of the state. This low will draw in high amounts of moisture off the Pacific Ocean into Central West and South West QLD. These 2 combinations will lead to increased showers, rain areas and isolated storms across the Central West, western Warrego and Maranoa and eastern Channel Country districts during Tuesday afternoon and night. 24 hr totals of 10-25mm are forecast with locally higher falls possible.
On Wednesday the entire system remains in place across Central West / South West QLD and doesn’t move… Further scattered showers, rain areas and increased storm activity is expected. Some of these storms may become severe and some locally heavy falls are possible. 24 hr totals of 10-20mm are forecast.
During Thursday the overall rain area weakens however thunderstorm activity increases. Some storms are likely to be severe with further heavy falls possible under storms.
Here are some current projected 3 day rainfall totals for towns in the primary forecast area. Longreach 38mm, Barcaldine 42mm, Blackall 55mm, Tambo 30mm, Charleville 35mm, Bollon 20mm, Cunnamulla 20mm, Mitchell 20mm, Thargomindah 15mm, Windorah 20mm, Winton 10mm. The highest rainfall is currently forecast is for Quilpie, Adavale and Yaraka where 50-100mm is possible but any shift with the low and trough would result in less rainfall at these locations and higher amounts nearby. Another area with rainfall potential is Upper Western NSW where 5 – 20mm is possible depending on steering winds pulling activity further South.
As you can see the system is reasonable wide spread across 3 days through Central West and South West QLD. This system has the potential to fill dams and tanks and put a run in local creeks and maybe even rivers. It WILL NOT break the drought but EVERY drop counts during these desperate times.
We have issued our detailed accurate in-house daily rainfall and storm risk maps on our website which is available by clicking HERE!