Issued 26th January 2019. A tropical low with amplifying monsoon trough is located over North Queensland with over 1 meter of rain forecast! Heavy Rain is expected to lead to flooding across the region for at least the next week. Above image: 10 day rainfall accumulation via Windy.com
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A Tropical Low is currently located over land near Kowanyarma moving South. It is expected to continue moving South for the next 24 to 48hrs before moving further West through the Gulf District. Due to being over land the system is not expected to develop into a cyclone. A monsoon trough lies across the North Tropical Coast which is also slowly forecast to move South adjacent to the low.
Heavy rainfall is likely to continue across the North Tropical Coast while spreading further South into the Herbert and Lower Burdekin, eventually also into the Central Coast and Whitsundays during the next 5 days. Daily rainfall totals over 100mm are expected with 200mm a day possible with the trough. 300 to 400mm has already fallen across the Cairns region over the past few days causing flash flooding and minor river flooding.
Flooding is expected to continue for a week as the system remains across the North East of the state. We may see periods of Major Flooding depending on exactly where the heaviest falls occur in a short duration.
Some 5 day forecast totals include Cairns, Cardwell, Ingham, Townsville, Ayr, Bowen, Charters Towers, Collinsville, Mt Coolon and Proserpine all 250mm with the potential for heavy falls of 500mm+ at any of these locations. Rainfall tapers off into Mackay with 100mm forecast all up at this stage.
A continuation of the monsoon trough and further embedded lows during the 5 to 10 day forecast range is suggesting that areas between Port Douglas to Ingham could see 10 day totals of 800 to 1300mm. A Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall leading to flooding is current.