Typhoon Trami has just been upgraded to Super Typhoon (Category 5) strength as it continues to track towards Taiwan or the Islands between Taiwan and Japan. Above image: Rainbow satellite imagery of Trami with a big eye via RAMMB / CIRA.

 

In the past 24hrs, Trami has RAPIDLY intensified from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5, Super Typhoon. The system is currently situated over open waters in the Western Pacific and maintaining sustained winds of 240km/h with gusts to 300km/h. Over the next 12-24hrs, the system is expected to hold its strength, if not intensify gradually further to a 175kt (325km/h) system as it slows down over these same open waters courtesy of a complex ridging pattern. 

Forecast Track Map for JTWC for Super Typhoon Trami. Issued Monday, September 24th

 

Beyond the next 24hrs, models are starting to favour a North Westerly track however they are remaining uncertain with an exact landfall location – bouncing between Taiwan, the Islands North of Taiwan and a recurve towards the North and then North East. This exact location for a landfall will be heavily dependant on when the system starts to turn more North West, then more North, however places such as Taiwan the Islands between Taiwan and Japan are at the highest risk of a direct landfall towards the end of the weekend and into early next week. Trami should maintain super typhoon strength for the next 72hrs possibly 4 days, before entering a slightly more unfavourable environment and weakening before any landfall is made. 

Regardless of a weakening pattern, the system is expected to remain very dangerous with winds to 250km/h, torrential rainfall which has the potential to produce falls of 300-500mm over any areas that receive a direct hit along with a dangerous storm surge, again for any areas that are directly hit. We will continue to monitor any changes in tracking for the system and hone in on the areas which are most likely to be impacted towards the weekend.

 

Wave heights via the EC model showing 15m waves around Trami towards any landfall potential. Image via Windy.