Typhoon Trami is now starting to make landfall over Southern Japan as the equivalent strength of a Category 3 Australian Cyclone. The system is bringing damaging to destructive winds and very heavy rainfall to the region. Above image via RAMMB / CIRA.

 

After an extensive period of time over open water, both as a Typhoon and Super Typhoon, Trami eventually made landfall over the Ryukyu Islands, an extensive island group between Taiwan and Japan. The system brought damaging to destructive winds and heavy rain to large portions of these islands. Its then that the system turned more Northerly and now more North Easterly as it interacts with a complex ridging pattern. This has places Trami on the doorstep of Southern Japan where its likely to make landfall over the next few hours.

JTWC Forecast track map for Trami

 

Trami is likely to slice Japan in half as it moves right up the middle of the country. This is both good and bad. The good news of this scenario is that it will interact with continuous land areas as well as mountainous terrain which will significantly weaken the system after the initial landfall. The bad news however is that more people are likely to be impacted. While the Japanese community isn’t foreign to these kinds of systems and are more than equipped to deal with systems much stronger than this one.. damaging winds will be a notable threat across the course of the next 12-24hrs before the system weakens too much. While heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely also. Falls of 100mm+ are likely across widespread parts of the country, with isolated falls of 250mm+ being possible, especially over the Eastern or Southern Coast where winds will be more onshore for a longer period of time. This kind of rainfall over a short period of time will be enough to create flash flooding, some creek and river flooding along with some potential for mud slides and landslides. Power outages will still be a temporary issue along with minor house and building damage, most notably over the Southern regions of the country.

Rainfall forecast via Windy showing 100mm+ in red and 200mm+ in purple over Japan from Trami

 

 

After Trami, all eyes will be on Kong-Rey which is following an almost identical path to Trami and looking to near super typhoon strength with peak forecasts indicating the system to reach 120kts (super typhoon is 135kts) and gusts to 145kts over the next several days.

JTWC forecast track map on Sunday evening September 30th, for Tropical Storm Kong-Rey