Issued 15th November 2017. Widespread rain and storms are set to develop across most of Victoria, South East SA, New South Wales and the ACT from now until Saturday. A low pressure system is developing over South East South Australia on Wednesday afternoon producing rain and storms across the region. This low extends a trough to the North through Western NSW and Victoria. Over the next 3 days the system will develop further at it moves slowly East. Above image: Instability levels on Friday via GFS / BSCH.
On Wednesday night and Thursday the low is forecast to be located over Western Victoria producing rain areas with moderate to heavy falls possible. A severe weather warning for Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding is current for the Western third of Victoria. Across the Eastern two thirds of NSW including the ACT scattered showers, rain areas and storms are also expected to develop during Thursday. Some of these storms may become severe with heavy rainfall. Meanwhile rain and storms, some severe possible are forecast to develop across most remaining Central and Eastern parts of Victoria.
During Friday the low pressure system is expected to drift slightly West to be located close to the South Australian / Victorian border. Near this low scattered showers, rain areas and isolated storms are forecast across South East SA and Western Victoria. The low continues to extend a trough to the North East across the Eastern half of Victoria, Eastern half of NSW and through the ACT. Scattered showers, rain areas and storms with some likely severe with heavy rain are likely across these regions.
The low pressure system weakens on Saturday but the surface trough remains in place across the Eastern half of Victoria, Eastern half of NSW including the ACT. Again, rain areas, scattered showers and storms are likely across these regions with some storms likely severe with heavy rain inland.