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Wild weather is forecast to lash large parts of New South Wales the ACT and Victoria during Thursday as warm humid air mixes with cold air aloft. In Victoria isolated showers and storms are forecast for Western districts while Southern, Central, Northern and Eastern parts including Melbourne Metro should see scattered storms and rain areas. All threats are likely in severe storms with Large Hail, Damaging Winds, Heavy Rain and Frequent Lightning likely. There is up to a 40% chance of Supercells ( dangerous storms ) through North Central Victoria, tornadoes are unlikely.

In New South Wales / ACT thunderstorm activity is expected right across the state except in the North East. SEVERE storms likely in Southern and South East districts with heavy rain in Southern / Central inland. Again here severe storms contain all threats.

On Friday activity shifts into Central, Northern and North East NSW from Sydney Northwards. Again thunderstorm activity here is likely to be severe with all threats.

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Instability on Thurdsay

Instability on Friday

Yet again despite being under the influence of a strong El Niño climate pattern, Mother Nature is set to unleash her power and beauty over the next week through Queensland. On the latest 8 day rainfall outlook from BOM you can see most areas will experience rain and storms with the best falls currently forecast through Central and South East parts of the state, however we expect these to shift around a bit. What we do hope for is that areas which previously missed out from the last system pick up some healthy totals out of this next one. Follow up rain is also going to be very welcomed off the back of the last system.

SEVERE storms will also feature heavily on numerous days with many areas likely to experience wild conditions. Central inland / coast, Southern inland and possibly the South East are under threat of Large Hail, Damaging Winds and Frequent Lightning. The odd dangerous supercell can not be ruled out given the very high instability.

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Posted by Jeff Higgins 11/11/15 @ 4pm

Next 8 day rainfall forecast totals from BOM

Jay Everingham a Cairns based pilot captured a rare combination of Sun Arcs, Halos and Circles while flying at 18,000ft near Weipa earlier this week! While these phenomena are common as individual sightings having a combination of all four at once is very rare. The reflections occur from sunlight being refracted or bent as it travels through various ice crystal cloud layers and ice crystal shapes. Depending on the observers angle and perspective to the sun is critical to what is viewed. In this case both Jay’s height, angle and specific ice crystal formation all came together at the one moment to produce the incredible display. What Jay has captured both on still images and video is a 22 degree halo, a parhelic circle and two infralateral arks! The video can be viewed HERE!

Image credits: Jay Everingham

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South Eastern Australia is about to be impacted hard by a very large significant weather system coming in from the West this week! Widespread heavy rain with severe storms containing Large Hail, Damaging Winds, Heavy Rain, Flash Flooding and Frequent Lightning to hit all 3 states. The bad weather starts out in South Australia on Tuesday before heading East affecting all of New South Wales and Victoria on Wednesday and Thursday.

In South Australia rainfall totals between 25 and 100mm are forecast in Southern / South East parts while active severe storms will sweep right across the state on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Victoria is expected to see rainfall totals of 25 to 50mm right across the state, possibly higher in the far North. Severe storms also affect the entire state starting in the Western half Wednesday, then go state wide on Thursday. Due to the heavy rain over such a wide area we are likely to see flash flooding and flooding of some rivers and creeks.

New South Wales is forecast to be hit the hardest as the system gains maximum intensity over the state on Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread falls of 50 to 100mm are expected across the state with a healthy 25 mm across the far North West and North. Severe and possibly Dangerous storms are likely to affect the entire Western half of the state on Wednesday before shifting to the entire Eastern half on Thursday to include Sydney Metro. Damaging Winds are likely with possibly Destructive Winds in strongest storms. Large to Very Large and damaging hail likely in the strongest storms with frequent lightning also posing a risk.
The Heavy rain which expected right across the state will cause areas of Flash flooding and some River flooding is also possible.

Higgins Storm Chasing is URGING residents to prepare for the above weather forecasts and remember “if it’s flooded turn around don’t drown”. We will be issuing push notification alerts to HSC APP users, if you haven’t got our App it’s available in Apple and Google stores. We will also be conducting video forecasts and high detailed graphic maps to our Premium Members via our website. You can sign up HERE!

Issued at 6pm 2nd November 2015 by Jeff Higgins

4 day rainfall forecast BOM

Storm forecast via BSCH – red severe, purple likely severe

Storms will fire up again today through inland QLD and NENSW!
A slow moving surface trough extends from near Mt Isa to Longreach and Goondiwindi in QLD then inland through Moree, Coonabarabran to Sydney in NSW.
A patchy band of showers and storms likely to develop in the vicinity of the trough in QLD with isolated severe cells containing damaging winds and frequent lightning.  Areas such as the Central West, Maranoa and Darling Downs / Granite Belt have a high chance of seeing these storms today.
In NENSW instability is much higher so storms here will be more widespread and likely to be severe with Damaging Winds, Heavy Rain and Large Hail. A South East wind change moving North through Sydney late this afternoon could cause triple point wind convergence increasing severe storms between Sydney and Newcastle this afternoon!

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Blue shaded areas indicate instability

Despite the current strong El Niño weather pattern Mother Nature is fighting back with the promise of further widespread showers, storms ( some severe likely ) and rain over parts of QLD during the next 5 days. We have already seen outbreaks of Supercells and Severe storms during this current burst of activity and they will return during the week. Good rain has fallen through Southern, Central and North West parts of the state resulting in some flash flooding however many areas remain dry unfortunately… Hopefully by the end of this week those who have missed out receive some rain.

On Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday the active trough remains out in Western and Far Southern inland districts before tracking East across the entire state reaching Eastern areas on Thursday and Friday. The very high instability kicks in on Wednesday through the the Western Half and far Southern inland as very moist air is drawn in mixing with high temperatures. A long band of showers and severe storms are expected from the far North to the far South then it increases in intensity while moving East. The entire state is looking at some rainfall this week of up to 10mm however these totals will increase greatly under thunderstorms. Damaging winds a high risk in the Western half then add Large Hail, Heavy Rain and possible Supercells in the Eastern Half.

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5 day rainfall total forecast in inches via Tropical Tidbits

~ Jeff Higgins ~

MORE rain and storms on the way today and tonight for Western QLD with heavy falls possible.

There have been some very welcome falls overnight Central West and North West QLD with up to 130mm recorded from farmers between Longreach and Emerald.
A broad trough lies through all of inland QLD which is drawing in vast amounts of moisture. Scattered showers, storms and areas of rain are expected today and tonight with moderate to heavy falls possible especially from Emerald to Longreach SOUTH to Cunnamulla to St George.
One of the best and most promising forecasts we have seen in a long time!

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Blue shaded areas indicate instability

BOM 24hr rainfall forecast

A near stationary trough extends through the middle of Queensland with moist unstable conditions to its East and very hot dry weather to the West. Very hot above average temperatures up to 42c are forecast from today and for the next 5 days classing this as a heatwave. A heatwave is temperatures more than 5c above average for 3 consecutive days and that’s exactly what Western QLD is headed for. Areas including and WEST from Georgetown, Richmond, Longreach and Charleville are at high risk of a significant hot spell. By next weekend conditions should cool down as moisture builds into storms and rain!

Posted on Sunday 25/10/15 by Jeff Higgins

Forecasts are looking very promising for showers, storms and some rain areas over many parts of QLD over the next week or so. With over 80% of the state drought declared ALL rain is welcome rain!

A slow moving to near stationary surface trough over the Southern and Central inland will continue to draw in moisture from the Pacific while a series of Upper Troughs passing over head will enhance instability. These two combinations are likely to produce scattered  afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day along with some rain areas. The repeating process could add up to some heathy rainfall totals of 100mm especially areas that receive a number of back to back storms. The main focus for activity looks to be from Mackay to Hughenden SOUTH and from Longreach through Charleville to the NSW border EAST. Coastal areas of Central and South East QLD won’t miss out with a number a thunderstorms days through this period also.

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Above image: 8 day rainfall forecast from BOM

Cover image: 8 days rainfall forecast from GFS / BSCH

Posted at 7pm 24/10/2015 by Jeff Higgins