EDIT: We have conducted some major changes to the forecast based off of high resolution data output, along with some backing from standard resolution data. All model data is indicating that there is a reduced risk of storms over the South East Coast, Wide Bay & Fraser Coast areas – possibly extending into the Eastern Darling Downs and Granite Belt. For this we have downgraded the likely regions to ‘possible’ and this is a very weak possible for the South East Coast (as only a couple of models are indicating maybe 1 or 2 storms). We have introduced likely severe storms across Inland parts of the forecast region – with a large cluster of storms likely over the Central Highlands and into the Northern and Western Downs + Warrego & Maranoa. This activity looks likely to produce heavy rainfall and some locally damaging winds, with heavy rainfall accumulations likely (we have indicated 25mm+ for a broad scale, but 50-100mm+ cant be ruled out). We have also introduced an area of likely severe storms across Southern areas as a line of storms is forecast to move North East from Northern NSW into Southern parts of the forecast region with strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall. This activity is slow moving but appears to be at least moving – which will limit the extreme rainfall accumulations to some degree, but will likely produce further flooding that is already occurring over the region.
A surface trough is expected tp become situated over or near the Western extremity of the forecast region (Southern Inland QLD) during the day, with this trough interacting with upper level support whilst drawing in South to South Easterly winds along the Coastal strip of the forecast region – with these winds veering more Easterly over the rest of the forecast region and spreading further moisture over the entire forecast region during the day. A combination of upper level support, increased moisture into an already moisture-laden environment and good surface heating will become favourable for some widespread instantly to develop across the entire forecast region during the day.
This instability is expected to become favourable for producing some showers across Coastal areas during the morning, with some showers and patchy (isolated) storms over Inland areas. As the morning progresses, showers are expected to become more frequent over Coastal areas, with the addition of some isolated embedded storms becoming possible. Showers and storms are expected to become very likely over the Darling Downs and Granite Belt. Showers and storms are expected across a widespread area of the Darling Downs, Granite Belt, South East Coast, Wide Bay & Burnett during the afternoon with some of these storms possibly becoming severe for damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding – this activity is expected to gradually weaken during the latter part of the evening and into the night, however some storms may linger over Coastal areas if they become attach to any convergence zones whilst trying to clear the Coastline, and further redevelopment (but only in an isolated fashion) is possible over the Darling Downs and into the Central Highlands as the dry-line remains active over Inland areas.
Widespread good rainfall accumulations are expected across the majority of the forecast region, with moderate rainfall accumulations expected over the Darling Downs, Granite Belt and surrounds due to the slow movement and clustered nature of the thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Brisbane 21-26ºc, Ipswich 19-27ºc, Beaudesert 19-27ºc, Gold Coast Seaway 20-26ºc, Gold Coast Inland 19-26ºc, Coolangatta 20-26ºc, Sunshine Coast 20-25ºc, Gympie 20-26ºc, Hervey Bay 21-28ºc, Maryborough 20-26ºc, Kingaroy 17-25ºc, Bundaberg 21-28ºc, Gayndah 21-29ºc, Gatton 18-26ºc, Toowoomba 16-22ºc, Warwick 16-24ºc, Dalby 17-27ºc, Stanthorpe 13-21ºc, Roma 18-30ºc, St George 19-29ºc.
A surface trough is expected to become situated West of the forecast region during the day, with South Easterly winds feeding over the South East Coast & Fraser Coast, with these winds veering back Easterly over the Ranges and then North Easterly through Inland areas. These winds are expected to once again inject further moisture over a moisture-laden environment which will combine further with good heating over most of the forecast region, resulting in a build up of instability across the majority (if not, the entirety) of the forecast region.
During the morning, showers are expected to impact Coastal areas of the forecast region with mostly fine conditions occurring over Inland areas. As the day progresses and instability increases, showers and storms are expected to become active over Inland areas of the forecast region, with further showers occurring over Coastal areas. These storms over iNland ares are expected to become scattered or even widespread during the afternoon, evening and night, particularly over areas North and West of the forecast region – with some of these storms likely becoming severe for heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and some damaging winds. These storms may extend into Northern parts of the Wide Bay & Burnett later in the night as well, with storms possible over the remainder of Inland areas of the forecast region. Showers and storms should continue in an isolated fashion over Northern & Inland parts of the forecast region into the night. The combination of showers, rain areas and storms is expected to become favourable for moderate accumulations across Inland and Northern parts of the forecast region during the day, with some heavy falls also likely occurring on a more isolated scale. Lighter accumulations are expected over the remainder of Coastal areas.
Temperatures: Brisbane 20-27ºc, Ipswich 18-27ºc, Beaudesert 19-27ºc, Gold Coast Seaway 20-26ºc, Gold Coast Inland 11-27ºc, Coolangatta 19-26ºc, Sunshine Coast 19-24ºc, Gympie 20-26ºc, Hervey Bay 21-28ºc, Maryborough 20-27ºc, Kingaroy 16-24ºc, Bundaberg 21-27ºc, Gayndah 20-29ºc, Gatton 17-27ºc, Toowoomba 15-23ºc, Warwick 15-25ºc, Dalby 16-27ºc, Stanthorpe 13-22ºc, Roma 18-30ºc, St George 19-30ºc.
Currently being updated.
Temperatures: Brisbane 21-25ºc, Ipswich 19-24ºc, Beaudesert 19-25ºc, Gold Coast Seaway 21-25ºc, Gold Coast Inland 19-25ºc, Coolangatta 20-25ºc, Sunshine Coast 21-25ºc, Gympie 20-26ºc, Hervey Bay 22-29ºc, Maryborough 21-28ºc, Kingaroy 17-22ºc, Bundaberg 22-28ºc, Gayndah 18-24ºc, Gatton 12-28ºc, Toowoomba 16-19ºc, Warwick 16-22ºc, Dalby 18-23ºc, Stanthorpe 14-19ºc, Roma 18-25ºc, St George 20-23ºc.
During Wednesday, showers and storms are expected across most of the forecast region – with activity more likely closer to Coastal areas and less likely over the Western extremity. Some storms may become severe for heavy rainfall and damaging winds with moderate rainfall accumulations over the South East Coast. During Thursday, showers and storms are expected likely over the South East Coast, Darling Downs, Granite Belt and Wide Bay districts, with clearer conditions over Western areas. Some storms are expected to become severe closer to the Coast. During Friday, some showers and storms are expected over Coastal areas of the forecast region. Clearer conditions are expected over Inland areas with warmer conditions likely.