South East QLD Daily Forecast

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    Saturday 8th October 2022 **UPDATED**

    ** Please read carefully **

    UPDATE: High resolution model data and most standard resolution data is favouring activity to become active further East than initially anticipated, with the system moving through areas further West on Friday a little faster and earlier. While there is no real major change, it has just meant that rainfall accumulations have shifted East about 100-200km compared to the original forests. Falls of 25mm+ are expected West of Stanthorpe / Miles, with rainfall rapidly easing towards the Great Dividing Range. Higher falls are possible over Western areas of the forecast region, and rainfall is still expected to reach the Coastline later in the night. 

    ORIGINAL FORECAST: During the morning, East to North East winds are expected to impact the entire forecast region. These winds are expected to carry increased moisture with them, which will feed into a trough located West of the forecast region. This will likely mean that apart from the odd shower over the Wide Bay or Fraser Coast region, widespread fine and sunny conditions are expected over the forecast region throughout the morning period.

    During the afternoon, more specifically by mid afternoon, some rain and storms from Southern Inland QLD are expected to push into Western parts of the forecast region. These rain and storms are expected to persist across the Warrego & Maranoa, Western Downs and areas closer to the Northern NSW Border throughout the afternoon and well into the night, with the heavier activity potentially coming through after sunset. Some of these storms embedded within the rain areas could become severe for damaging winds & heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. Some showers are possible over the South East Coast during the afternoon and into the evening also, but these showers likely remaining light.

    During the overnight hours of Saturday into Sunday, the band of rain and storms is expected to weaken and become very narrow. This band should reach the Ranges by 9am Sunday, with only light to locally moderate rainfall occurring within it. This should lead to a noticeable reduction in rainfall accumulations between the Western and Eastern Downs.

    Falls of 25mm+ are expected over Western parts of the forecast region, with locally higher falls becoming possible. This rainfall will be enough to produce flash flooding and some river and creek rises. Rainfall accumulations are expected to greatly taper off the further East you progress, with only light falls likely over Coastal areas.

    Temperatures: Brisbane 16-26ºc, Ipswich 12-27ºc, Beaudesert 13-27ºc, Gold Coast Seaway 17-25ºc, Gold Coast Inland 13-26ºc, Coolangatta 16-25ºc, Sunshine Coast 15-26ºc, Gympie 16-26ºc, Hervey Bay 13-27ºc, Maryborough 14-28ºc, Kingaroy 11-26ºc, Bundaberg 16-27ºc, Gayndah 14-29ºc, Gatton 13-27ºc, Toowoomba 12-23ºc, Warwick 12-25ºc, Dalby 13-27ºc, Stanthorpe 9-22ºc, Roma 14-30ºc, St George 16-28ºc.

    Sunday 9th October 2022

    During the morning, an ongoing band of light rain or scattered showers is expected to be situated over the Granite Belt, Darling Downs and South East Coast. This band should move Eastwards through the remainder of the morning an into the early afternoon before it clears the Wide Bay, Fraser Coast & South East Coast. Generally light accumulations are expected from this particular activity, with clear conditions increasing over Inland areas during this time.

    During the afternoon and evening, a Southerly change is expected to move up the Coast from North East NSW into the South East Coast and eventually the Wide Bay & Burnett region. It may also push further Inland later on. Behind this change, there is the chance of some isolated storms – however scattered showers are more likely. Any storms that occur are expected to produce locally heavier rainfall, gusty winds and some small hail (possibly large if storms were to become severe). This, along with the earlier rainfall, should lead to widespread falls of 5-15mm across areas East of the Ranges, with the higher falls likely along the immediate Coastline. Rainfall accumulations should taper off further West.

    Temperatures: Brisbane 19-25ºc, Ipswich 15-25ºc, Beaudesert 17-25ºc, Gold Coast Seaway 19-25ºc, Gold Coast Inland 11-25ºc, Coolangatta 18-25ºc, Sunshine Coast 17-25ºc, Gympie 16-25ºc, Hervey Bay 17-26ºc, Maryborough 16-27ºc, Kingaroy 14-22ºc, Bundaberg 18-27ºc, Gayndah 16-25ºc, Gatton 16-25ºc, Toowoomba 15-20ºc, Warwick 14-22ºc, Dalby 13-22ºc, Stanthorpe 11-20ºc, Roma 11-21ºc, St George 11-20ºc.

    Monday 10th October 2022

    South Easterly winds are expected to impact the South East Coast, Wide Bay & Burnett during the day. These winds are expected to combine with some upper level support, which will help induce some instability and lead to some isolated to scattered showers over the South East Coast, and scattered showers + possible storms over the Wide Bay & Burnett. Storms are expected to become more likely Inland from the Coastline over the Wide Bay & Burnett during the afternoon and evening, with these storms producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds and small hail. If one or two storms managed to become severe, then damaging wind sand large hail will become an increased risk. Generally light accumulations are execute, despite the increased storm risk.

    Across Inland areas, winds are expected to veer more Easterly which will help drag just enough moisture over the Ranges into the Northern / Eastern Downs and Central highlands, where some isolated showers are possible. The remainder of Inland areas should see mostly fine conditions.

    TemperaturesBrisbane 16-23ºc, Ipswich 12-24ºc, Beaudesert 13-24ºc, Gold Coast Seaway 16-23ºc, Gold Coast Inland 13-23ºc, Coolangatta 14-23ºc, Sunshine Coast 16-23ºc, Gympie 15-23ºc, Hervey Bay 16-24ºc, Maryborough 16-24ºc, Kingaroy 10-21ºc, Bundaberg 17-25ºc, Gayndah 13-25ºc, Gatton 13-23ºc, Toowoomba 10-19ºc, Warwick 10-21ºc, Dalby 8-23ºc, Stanthorpe 7-19ºc, Roma 7-23ºc, St George 8-23ºc.

    Extended forecast for Tuesday 11th of October to Thursday 13th of October 2022

    During Tuesday, showers are likely over the South East Coast & Wide Bay areas, with showers and possible storms over the Far Western extremity of the forecast region. Fine conditions elsewhere. During Wednesday, showers and the odd storms are possible over the Western extremity of the forecast region, as well as some showers possible over the Wide Bay & Fraser Coast. The rest of the forecast region should remain mostly fine. During Thursday, showers and possible storms may push into Western parts of the forecast region, with the rest of the forecast region remaining mostly fine.

    Flood Risk Map

    Issued Sunday, October 2nd 2022.

    As of October 2nd 2022, most flooding across Southern QLD has subsided or moved downstream into NSW. Some localised moderate flooding is ongoing through the Weir River, with minor flooding through the Narran River near Dirranbandi and areas nearby to Dalby.

    Widespread falls of 25mm+ are expected over Southern districts and through the Western half of the State over the next 7 days, with higher falls of 50mm+ and even some models are indicating localised falls of 100mm+ over Southern Inland and South West QLD. Further widespread falls of 25-50mm are expected over the Eastern half of the State with the longer range models in the 7-14 day bracket, with the heavier falls over Central Eastern QLD and the Northern Tropics.

    At face value, these rainfall accumulations are not dramatic at all. However, given the recent flooding through Southern Inland QLD and the recent rainfall over the same areas across the past week or two (regardless of flooding or not), the ground station across these areas is maxed and the water table is maxed. We are frequently seeing moderate to major flooding occur off of 40-70mm now (and even less rainfall is producing major flooding in Inland NSW). For this reason, we have expanded the moderate and high risk areas across Southern Inland QLD to cover more of the Border region of the Darling Downs, more of the Warrego & Maranoa and into South West QLD. Some of these rivers have seen moderate to major flooding over the past month, and with future rainfall predictions, we believe there is a moderate to high chance of renewed moderate to major flooding across these areas. In addition to river and creek flooding, some flash flooding is a high chance over these areas from storms and prolonged rain periods. We have also expanded the moderate flood risk into a large area of South West QLD – this will be mostly for flash flooding with repetitive thunderstorms forecast across this region, but also a small chance that the Diamantina exceeds minor flood levels. South Eastern QLD is remaining in a low risk – ONLY for flash flooding. There is NOTHING on current model data or live data that would indicate flooding through any river systems in SEQLD over the next week at least, possibly even 2 weeks – however we will continue to update map data and information when applicable. Despite increased rainfall over the rest of Eastern QLD during the next 2 weeks, we have no reason to place areas North of Bundaberg in even a low risk – if model data changes then we will update maps. 

    NOTE: Our forecasts and maps are accurately produced using the data assimilation process of various global models. They are not copied nor reproduced from any other weather agency or source. All information behind the subscription paywall must NOT be shared to any third parties without express permission.