Forecast

/Forecast
19 06, 2019

Freezing weather for the rest of the week

2019-06-19T12:19:06+10:00

Issued 19th June 2019. Weather conditions will become bitterly cold across large parts of Australia this week as a polar airmass surges North. Over half of the country will experience below average temperatures. Above image showing below average temperatures on Friday via Tropical Tidbits

Before the prospect of a big snow dump is considered forget it. While this system is very cold sadly it is also very dry with only around 5cms of fresh snow for the Alps this week.

A very cold mid to upper level polar airmass will be projected Northwards across South East Australia on Thursday thanks to a slow moving high just west of Tasmania. The polar airmass remains persistent until Monday causing a big reduction in minimum and maximum temperatures across large parts of Australia. Below image the large polar airmass via Windy.com

Widespread morning frosts will develop for the rest of the week through inland South Aust, Victoria, New South Wales, the ACT, Southern Northern Territory and Southern inland Queensland. Severe frosts are expected across the Central and Southern Tablelands of NSW including the ACT where minimums will drop to -4C or less. Ground temperatures could reach a bone chilling -10C. Below image showing minimum temperatures with frost areas circled via OCF/BSCH. 
Cold and gusty Southerly winds will keep maximum temperatures below 15C across South East SA, Tasmania, Victoria, most of NSW and Southern inland QLD for the rest of this week. Adelaide maximum temperatures are 12 to 14C, Hobart 11 to 12C, Melbourne 12 to 14C, Canberra 10 to 12C and Sydney 16C. The much cooler weather and morning frosts will extend well into QLD. Coastal districts including the tropics south from Cairns will be in the low 20s while across the Southern inland it will be very cold. Toowoomba 15C, Charleville 15 to 17C and Birdsville 17C are all below average for this time of year. Below image maximum temperatures on Friday below 15C via OCF/BSCH.

While the start of Winter has been fairly mild the rest of this week will remain us how cold it can get. Much sure you have the Winter woollies ready along with plenty of firewood! HSC daily forecasts and maps for Victoria, NSW, ACT and QLD available on our subscription service here! 

Freezing weather for the rest of the week2019-06-19T12:19:06+10:00
11 06, 2019

Follow Up Rain For SA, VIC & Parts Of NSW

2019-06-11T14:08:55+10:00

Issued 11th June 2019. Widespread follow up rain is expected on Wednesday and Thursday across the South East quarter of South Australia, Western and Central Victoria and parts of NSW. Above image: ECWMF rainfall forecast via Windy.com

South Australia: It’s been a quiet rainfall start to June across South Australia with only 6mm being recorded in Adelaide. The June long term rainfall average is 80mm so there is some catching up to do this month. Early on Wednesday morning a string surface trough will develop a band of Rain from the North West down across the West Coast. This feature is forecast to increase in intensity as it progresses East across South East SA during Wednesday. Widespread falls of 10-20mm are forecast south of Roxby Downs and East of Ceduna. Some isolated higher totals of 20-30mm are possible around Adelaide and the ranges. A few showers are expected on Thursday as the system clears East.

Victoria: The Southern half of Victoria has had a pretty good start to June with widespread rain occurring from the low last week. Melbourne is up to half of their June rainfall average of 50mm. East Gippsland has also gained some healthy falls this month so far with around 25-50mm recorded. The Alps have had their best start to a season in 19 years with a snow depth of about 75cms. Unfortunately this week considerable snow melt will occur due to warm conditions and a lack of any cold fronts. 
On Wednesday morning a surface trough and cold front will combine to produce a band of scattered showers and rain across Western districts during the morning. This activity will spread further East to be through Central districts during the afternoon and through the North East Alps during the evening. The best falls of 25-50mm are forecast across the Alps of rain. Widespread 10-20mm is forecast through Western and Central districts. Unfortunately the rain shadow from the Alps will mean that Eastern parts of the state largely miss out. 

 

New South Wales: In NSW falls will be much lighter. A band of showers and light areas will move East through Southern inland and Western districts on Wednesday before contracting to the Central inland and Northern inland on Thursday as a very weak system. There is potential for a low pressure system to develop across Northern and North East NSW on Sunday into Monday brining rain and storms. Higgins Storm Chasing rainfall, snow and storm forecasts available on our subscription service here! 

 

Follow Up Rain For SA, VIC & Parts Of NSW2019-06-11T14:08:55+10:00
10 06, 2019

Where Has Winter Gone In QLD?

2019-06-10T11:22:03+10:00


Issued 10th June 2019. Snow last week, feels like Spring this week as Winter temperatures warm to above average across Queensland. Above image: Max temp forecast on Tuesday via OCF/BSCH.

Winter came for a day last week and has gone again this week. Most of the state will climb to warm above average temperatures for the next 5 days. A high pressure system located over the state will produce light winds and clear sunny skies. The lack of any cold fronts with South Westerly winds will mean conditions will feel more like Spring. 


Maximum temperatures will be up to 8C above the June average across the South West with Birdsville heading for 29C on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Mt Isa 30C today then 29C until Friday. Longreach expecting 27C until Saturday with Rockhampton starting out at 27 before reaching 28C on Friday and Saturday. All these locations are 5C above the June average for most of this week.

Down into the South East and it will also be very warm. Brisbane and Ipswich tops of 25 to 26C before a peak of 27C on Friday. Toowoomba’s top of 20C until Saturday is 3C above the long term average. Frosty morning across South East and Southern inland districts will not be around for at least the next 10 days. 

Not rain is expected across the state until Sunday when a trough and possible East Coast Low develop across Central East and South East districts. Detailed HSC rainfall and temperatures forecasts across QLD available here! 
Below images: Top – above average temperature anomalies via Pivotal Weather. Bottom – long term June average max temps via BOM. 

Where Has Winter Gone In QLD?2019-06-10T11:22:03+10:00
7 06, 2019

4 Winter Storms Within 5 Days For Perth And SW WA

2019-06-07T11:45:59+10:00

Issued 7th June 2019. After the second driest May since 1874 in Perth, the first of 4 Winter storms has moved through. Widespread rain has fallen over the past 24hrs across South West WA with 3 more intense system to follow during the next 4 days. Above image: ECMWF rainfall forecast totals for the next 4 days via Windy.com

As wet conditions start to ease on Friday, the next much stronger system in the Southern Ocean is aimed at South West WA. On Saturday a strong cold front will hit the South West and Central West Coast during the afternoon and evening. The front is forecast to contain winds up to 85km hr from the South West with a burst of heavy band of rain. Showers and some isolated storms with hail are also likely to develop. The front will push North East into inland areas overnight. Below image: ECMWF cold front and low during Saturday via Windy.com

On Sunday strong cold Westerly winds will be maintained across the South West quarter of the state along with showers. SNOW is likely to fall on the Sterling Ranges especially on Bluff Knoll down to 1000 meters on Sunday morning as a very cold upper low moves overhead. Below image: GFS upper cold pool for snow on Sunday morning.

During Monday a third wave of strong winds to 90kmhr will move through the South West quarter of the state along with a round of scattered showers, isolated storms with hail and rain. A low pressure system is forecast to develop just offshore from south West and Southern Coastal districts. 

Tuesday will see the low pressure system continue to produce showers and storms with hail across the South West quarter. Winds strangely enough will ease. 

Overall it will be a very wet wild cold and windy period for Perth and the entire South West quarter of Western Australia during the next 4 days. Widespread 50-100mm of rain is expected along South West and Central West coastal areas and the adjacent inland. Widespread 20-40mm through inland parts. 

Wind damage is possible but these won’t be the most powerful systems to hit this Winter. Very cold conditions with top temps of 13 to 18C expected during Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. The rain will be very welcome by many! 

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4 Winter Storms Within 5 Days For Perth And SW WA2019-06-07T11:45:59+10:00
6 06, 2019

Some Winter Rain For QLD

2019-06-06T12:26:33+10:00

Issued 6th June 2019. An upper trough of cold air will trigger widespread instability across the Eastern half of the state on Friday and Saturday. A high pressure system will feed moisture in from the East to produce scattered showers, rain areas and possible isolated storms. The best falls are forecast through the Northern and Central inland where 20-40mm is likely. Above image: ECMWF total rainfall forecast via Windy.com

Forecast for Friday 7th June

An upper trough of cold air will generate unstable conditions across Northern and Central parts of the state. A large high over NSW will deepen the East to South East wind flow across the state with additional moisture. These two systems will produce scattered showers and rain areas along the Central Coast, Central inland and North Tropical Coast with moderate falls possible across the Northern inland. Some isolated storms through the Northern inland are also possible. Fine cloudy conditions are expected across Western and Southern districts with a few coastal showers in the South East. It will be a cool day under the cloud and rain areas across the Northern half of the state. Rainfall map available on our premium service here. 
Forecast for Saturday 8th June

An upper trough of cold air will generate unstable conditions across the Eastern half of the state. A large high in the Tasman Sea will deepen the East to South East wind flow across the Eastern half of the state with additional moisture. These two systems will produce scattered showers and rain areas along the South East Coast, Southern inland, Central Coast and Central inland during the day. Some scattered showers are likely to persist along the North Tropical Coast. Fine partly cloudy conditions are expected across Western half of the state. It will be a cool day under the cloud and rain areas across Eastern districts. Rainfall map available on our premium service here. 

Some Winter Rain For QLD2019-06-06T12:26:33+10:00
1 06, 2019

SNOW Possible In QLD Likely In Northern NSW!

2019-06-01T16:13:19+10:00

Issued June 1st 2019. The “Slamming SAM (Southern Annular Mode)” we recently discussed is going to have a hand in producing snow falls to low levels across Victoria, the ACT, NSW and possibly Southern QLD on Monday and Tuesday. A -30C mid to upper level polar airmass will push Northwards across South East Australia on Monday while a low develops just off the NSW coast. Snow will fall across the Alps, Act and NSW Central Tablelands however we will focus this snow forecast potential for the Granite Belt in QLD and the Northern Tablelands of NSW. Above image: ECMWF forecast showing snow or sleet for the Granite Belt and snow across the Northern Tablelands on Monday night into early Tuesday morning via Windy.com

For snow to occur in Southern QLD and Northern NSW some key atmospheric ingredients need to be forecast and then met. Firstly a very cold airmass of -2C or below at 5000ft needs to be forecast. From around 6pm on Monday evening through until 10am Tuesday morning both the GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting temperature thresholds to be cold enough for snow over Northern NSW and Southern QLD. Below image: Forecast 850mb or 5000ft temperatures. 

Secondly and most importantly precipitation must occur while the very cold airmass is present. This is normally the hardest ingredient to achieve to produce snow because by the time the very cold air reaches this far North is often very dry. Every 1mm of rain in the right conditions = 1cm of snow. Currently 80 to 100% of models are forecasting precipitation across Northern Tablelands and Granite Belt from 9am Monday to 9am Tuesday. A majority of this precipitation is forecast to fall during the coldest snow window of opportunity. Below image: OCF precipitation forecast via BSCH

 So the big snow forecast questions to be asked will be exactly where, when, what time and how much snow??? Is it worth going to see? 
All these detailed questions have been answered on our premium subscription service by clicking here! 

Regardless of the snow it will be freezing cold across Southern QLD and Northern NSW on Monday and Tuesday. In fact it could easily be one of the coldest Winter days experienced during the past 5 years. South Westerly winds will be gusting between 55 and 75kms hour. The wind chill factor will take up to 10C off the forecast maximums and remain in the single digits across Southern inland QLD and Northern inland NSW. The cold air mass will allow for widespread frosts to develop across both regions from Tuesday morning onwards.  

SNOW Possible In QLD Likely In Northern NSW!2019-06-01T16:13:19+10:00
30 05, 2019

Slamming SAM – More Freezing Conditions And Snow For Australia

2019-05-30T20:08:47+10:00


Issued 30th May 2019. Have you ever heard of the Southern Annular Mode also known as the Antarctic Oscillation? Well right now and for the next 2 weeks it is in full negative swing!  Brace yourselves for much more freezing, cold, windy weather and snow across South East Australia. The cold weather and frosts will also reach well into Queensland! Above image via Hotham Alpine Resort. 

Over the past week we have seen 2 big cold fronts across South Eastern Australia produce the best snow falls this early in the season in 19 years with up to 65cms across the Alps. We also had snow to low levels across Tasmania, Victoria, the ACT and Central Tablelands of NSW. It is not over yet, in fact its only just the start of much more to come during June. 

The negative phase of the SAM is associated with a northward shift in the belt of strong westerly winds. In autumn and winter, this can cause more Winter storms, low pressure systems, polar air masses, increased rainfall and snowfall for southern Australia. A SAM event can be identified by observing the pattern of westerly wind flow and pressure to the south of Australia. Over the past 2 weeks it has been steadily trending into negative values. Below image showing the current low pressures over SE Aust and the very strong negative SAM bulge of low pressure regions extending Northwards away from the South Pole. These regions move clockwise around the South Pole. 

 

The forecasting range for SAM is relatively short at only 2 weeks ahead. This is far enough to gauge a trending pattern beyond that so it can give an indication of values for about a month ahead. Currently models are suggesting that we will stay in a negative SAM for at least the next 2 weeks maybe longer. This will allow for an increase of deep low pressure systems to impact Australia. Below image showing the SAM / AAO past observations (black line) and 2 week forecast via CPC. Circled in blue is the negative anomalies. 


So what can we possibly expect? More strong cold fronts and upper cold lows, more snow, more rain, more strong winds with blizzards on the Alps, increasing frosts with some severe frosts and the list goes on. In general a big start to the snow season with snow reaching further north into NSW and possibly even Southern QLD. Average to possibly above average rain across South East SA, Tasmania and Victoria. Widespread frosts some severe across NSW and QLD with cold days. 

The next significant cold front is forecast to hit South East Australia from late this Sunday through until Tuesday. Damaging winds, rain, very cold conditions a big Alpine snow dump with snow extending further North into NSW is expected. That will be followed by frosts. Some places could be looking at 1 meter of snow depth by the first week June which is extraordinary. IF it continues long enough record breaking snow and record cold temperatures may occur. 

There will be short breaks in between the freezing weather when high pressure systems slowly move through however the deep lows and cold fronts will return in quick succession. We cover detailed snow forecasts and maps for VIC, ACT, NSW and QLD on our premium weather service here> https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/

Slamming SAM – More Freezing Conditions And Snow For Australia2019-05-30T20:08:47+10:00
15 05, 2019

EC TC Ann Crosses QLD Coast At Lockhart River

2019-05-15T14:25:35+10:00

Issued 15th May 2019.

A tropical low developed near the Solomon Islands on the 9th of May and tracked South West across the Coral Sea into a favourable environment for cyclone development.

The out of season cyclone Ann developed in the Northern Coral Sea on the 12th of May. It was the latest a cyclone has developed in the Coral Sea since TC Pierre on the 16th May 2007.

TC Ann intensified further against global forecasts become a category 2 for around 12hrs early on May 13th. She also became the strongest cyclone to develop in the Coral Sea this late in May in 26 years. The system continued to track West across the Coral Sea towards North QLD. Below image of when TC Ann peaked at category 2. 

 

During the day an upper trough impacted the system with much cooer Southerly surface winds and much drier low to mid level moisture which caused a rapid weakening back to a category 1. 

On May 14th the cyclone was downgraded to an EX TC or Tropical Low. The strong convection had dissipated largely due to dry air intrusion leaving a low level circulation centre. EX TC Ann continued to be steered towards North QLD under the influence of a sub tropical ridge to the South. 

EX TC Ann crossed the Peninsula Coast at Lockhart River at 12noon the 15th of May 2019. The strongest wind gust of 89kms hr was recorded 500kms South of the system at Arlington Reef offshore from Cairns. The system had tracked closer to Willis Island 400kms East of Cairns where a wind gust of 85kms hr was felt. 

At Lockhart River the pressure dropped from 1010hpa to 1006hpa within a few hours. Wind gusts went from S at 33kms hr to NE at 48kms hr within 1 hour. Only 6mm of rain has been recorded.
Cooktown has recorded 60mm in 30hrs due to a trough and convergence rain area on the Southern side of the low. 

Thunderstorms are developing between Weipa and Lockhart River as the system moves West. 

EX TC Ann will continue to track West during Wednesday and Thursday across the Gulf of Carpentaria reaching the Western Gulf near Nhulunbuy on Thursday afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms some with moderate to heavy rain are expected across the far Northern NT during Thursday night and Friday. 

The BOM had issued cyclone watch and warning for parts of the North QLD Coast but downgraded the warnings to a severe weather warning. They are still calling for heavy rain to 150mm in 6 hrs and damaging winds to 90km hr but we are yet to see any of this occur. Below image: Observations when EX TC Ann passed over Lockhart via BOM. 

EC TC Ann Crosses QLD Coast At Lockhart River2019-05-15T14:25:35+10:00
7 05, 2019

Snow Rain And Cold For SE AUST

2019-05-07T18:34:21+10:00


Issued 7th May 2019. A very strong cold front and low pressure system will bring widespread rain across Victoria with snow on the Alps this week. Scattered showers falling as snow expected across the Brindabella Ranges in the ACT and possibly even the Central Tablelands of NSW. Above image: Very cold airmass at 500mb via GFS/BSCH on Friday morning. The system is also expected to bring follow up rain to SA HERE.

It will be the first of many systems to sweep across South East Australia during the next 3 months but having early snow falls attached makes it exciting…

On Thursday a very strong cold front moves into Western Victoria with a band of scattered showers and rain. Some isolated storms can’t be ruled out. The front continues to marching East reaching Central districts during the afternoon and evening. Rain is expected to turn to snow on the Alps during Thursday night where 5 to 10cms are possible. Very strong West to South West winds could easily kick up dust across Western NSW and Western Victoria. 

During Friday the upper low of very cold air moves North East across Central and Eastern Victoria, Southern and Central NSW. Meanwhile a surface low is expected to be located to the North East of Tasmania. These features will combine to produce scattered showers across Central Victoria with hail tending to rain areas through Eastern districts. The scattered showers will fall as snow across the Alps above 1000 meters with 10cms expected. Cold Westerly winds are expected with top temps across Victoria between 10-14C and near zero on the Alps. 

In the ACT in will be cold with some showers forecast which should fall as snow on the Brindabella Ranges above 1100 meters where a few cms are possible. 

Across NSW cold South West to Westerly winds will extend across all of the state apart from the far North East. Showers are expected across the Central and Southern inland. Snow is possible on the Central Tablelands above 1100 meters which could include Orange, Bathurst but more likely the higher areas such as Oberon, Crookwell and Jenolan Caves. Below image: Snow forecast via ECMWF and Windy. 

Good rain is forecast across large parts of Victoria from the system which should deliver about 15-30mm across Western, Southern and Central districts. 10 to 20mm of follow up rain is possible across Eastern districts but there is some uncertainty with these totals depending on exact position of the surface low on Friday. Below image: ECMWF rainfall forecast totals via Weatherzone. 

Snow Rain And Cold For SE AUST2019-05-07T18:34:21+10:00
5 05, 2019

Follow Up Rain For SA And Adelaide

2019-05-05T17:39:22+10:00

Issued 5th May 2019: Good follow up rain is forecast for South East South Australia including Adelaide this week. Above image: ECMWF rainfall accumulation forecast totals via Weatherzone.

A cold front and South West wind change will move across the state on Tuesday producing a band of showers and rain areas through the South East quarter. 5 to 10mm is forecast from this first system. 

A strong upper low and significant cold front with very strong West to South West winds will move across the state on Thursday. Southern and South East districts are expecting rain, showers with hail and possible storms with widespread 15 to 30mm of rain forecast on Thursday.

Maximum temperatures will drop into the low teens across the South East quarter of the state on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Further strong winds and showers are expected some with hail across the South East on Friday with around 5mm expected.

Fine conditions returning on Saturday and Sunday. Below image: Very strong upper low and cold pool of air at 500mb on Thursday via BSCH. 

Follow Up Rain For SA And Adelaide2019-05-05T17:39:22+10:00