Forecast

/Forecast
18 02, 2019

Its Going To Be Hot First Before Anything Else

While all the focus is around Tropical Cyclone Oma and whether or not it is or isn’t coming to Queensland.. we do have other weather going on in the time being, the most significant being a low to moderate intensity heatwave which is forecast to move across the State during the first half of the week. Above image via OCF / BSCH showing Maximums for Tuesday.

 

A heatwave is classed as a period of 3+ consecutive days where maximum and minimum temperatures are at least 5ºc above average. The lower this anomaly, the lower the heatwave intensity, the higher it is then the higher the intensity. This is being classed as a low to “severe” or in other words, low to moderate strength heatwave where maximums are likely to be around the 5-8ºc maybe pushing 10ºc mark above the February average over the course of a 3-4 day period through the majority of QLD.

 

The heat is expected to build on Monday to above average over most of the State before a combination of a dry warming air mass combined with a dry South to South West flow over Inland areas and a very warm and humid North Easterly flow over Coastal areas kicks in and produces an increase in atmospheric heating. This is likely to produce widespread maximums of 40-45ºc and some isolated higher temps over Inland areas, while Coastal areas such as South East QLD should climb into the mid 30’s. This is likely to remain in place across Wednesday and Thursday as well where parts of South East QLD may push 40ºc while Southern and Central Inland areas scorch well above 40ºc. 

Forecast Maximums via OCF / BSCH for Thursday across Queensland

During Friday, the heat is expected to ease gradually over Southern and South East areas where maximums will still be above average but maybe 1-2ºc cooler than previous days. During the weekend however, regardless of what Oma does, a Southerly to South East flow is expected to scream in over the South East of the State and may drop temperatures to below 30ºc for the first time in 2 months for some areas while large parts of Eastern QLD should be back to at least normal if not below normal by Sunday. The only exception into the weekend will be Western and North West areas who will still be under the influence of 40ºc+ temperatures.

Forecast Maximums via OCF / BSCH for Saturday across Queensland

 

11 02, 2019

Hot Conditions To Impact Flood Affected North QLD

As many residents of North QLD know, after a cyclone comes the heat.. and the heat is certainly coming in after the recent flood event across the region, which is only going to make conditions repulsive across the region. Above image – Wednesday maximums via OCF / BSCH.

 

Over the past few days, temperatures have pushed not only back to normal but above average across the Northern QLD and Tropical North QLD region. Townsville saw its warmest day in a month yesterday with 34ºc, Cairns its warmest since before Christmas with 38ºc! While areas across Northern Inland and North West QLD finally climbed back into the mid 30’s after being in the low 20’s as maximums over the past 1-2 weeks. 

OCF Forecast Maximums for Tuesday via BSCH

 

Across the next few days, temperatures are expected to only climb as a warming air mass moves over the region and combines with hot dry air coming from Inland Australia and pushing into Coastal parts of QLD courtesy of a coastal surface trough. This combination will allow maximums during Monday through to Thursday to climb well above average across Coastal parts of North QLD where daily maximums should reach the mid to high 30’s, while Northern Inland QLD should sit just above average in the mid to high 30’s as well. Some locations may even touch 40ºc. 

 

When you add this repulsive heat with extreme moisture laden surface conditions, and even ongoing extreme flooding… not only does the risk of waterborne diseases increase as waterborne insects will thrive, but even if the air itself is dry, the surface conditions where people exist, work, function.. will be extremely humid. This will make it feel much worse than what it really is.

OCF Forecast Maximums for Thursday via BSCH

 

10 02, 2019

Here Comes The Heat For SEQLD & NENSW!

While it has been warm across SEQLD and NENSW for an extensive period of time now (given it is Summer), it looks like the heat is about to get turned up several notches over the coming days with maximums pushing the low 40’s!

 

Its February, its Summer… it gets hot, yes. Even for February standards though, this is going to be a bit on the uncomfortable side. A surface trough is forecast to become positioned across the South East QLD region and North East NSW over the coming days. This trough is forecast to combine a warming air mass with very warm and muggy North Easterly winds over both areas during Sunday through to Tuesday. This will allow temperatures to push into the mid to high 30’s away from the Coast (areas such as Casino, Ipswich, Boonah, Beaudesert, Warwick, Gatton, Brisbane Valley, Gympie… the usual spots). Temperatures closer to the Coast will likely sit in the low to mid 30ºc range but the added humidity could make it feel several degrees warmer. The added bonus this time (unlike the last run of heat) is storms should bring some evening relief. Some may miss out some days, but overall the expectation is that during Sunday to Tuesday – most areas should receive something on 1 of the days minimum (the better chances are always further Inland thanks to the heat element). 

Forecast Maximums via OCF for Tuesday for SEQLD / NENSW

 

 

During Wednesday, the surface trough responsible for the above, is expected to move onto the Coast. This will lead to hotter and drier conditions pushing into Coastal areas which will inevitably lead to the temperature skyrocketing. Gatton could reach as high as 43 or 44ºc, Ipswich is expected to see the 40’s as well, with the usual places also pushing into the 40’s as well. Brisbane is expected to reach about 38ºc with the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast into the mid to high 30’s as well depending how far away from the beach you are. There is a chance of some storms activity very close to the Coast, but there is a risk that dry air pushing into both SEQ and NENSW as well as some drier air aloft, may suppress any storm threats. This will be a wait and see risk.

 

From Thursday into the weekend, the temperature should gradually ease back but conditions are still likely to be above average for February standards. During the period of Sunday to Wednesday, this will be deemed as a low to severe intensity heatwave as the normal average across SEQLD and NENSW is around 30-32ºc for this time of year, and these forecast temperatures are expected to be in the realms of 6-12ºc above that. A seperate blog will be issued for CQLD and Northern QLD.

Low to Severe Heatwave criteria via BOM for Tuesday to Thursday

 

6 02, 2019

Relief Forecast For Tasmania!

While Tasmania is still burning from widespread bushfires, it appears as though there is some hope now on forecast models that relief is on the way for the first time this year. Above image: Windy 10 day rainfall (orange 50mm+, red 100mm+).

 

Over the course of the next week, models are hinting at a series of different weather events moving across Tasmania which will make it feel much more like Tasmania and not the tinderbox it has been lately. After arguably the worst fire outbreak in recorded history (only really challenged by the infamous 1967 fires), models are giving some hope – not just for residents, but for firefighters too, who have been tirelessly working around the clock to ensure people’s safety.

Current Fire Map for Tasmania as of Wednesday afternoon February 6th 2019 via TAS Fire

 

The first bit of relief will be on Thursday. A low pressure system is forecast by numbers models to develop over Bass Strait or the Eastern Bight. This low is likely to then move South East and bring with it some warmer temperatures and increased humidity which are forecast to produce scattered storms across the State. Some of these could become severe. Unfortunately that does mean that damaging winds and increased lightning frequency are a risk – which could locally produce or enhance fire activity. The flip side is, models are looking at widespread falls of 5-15mm and isolated higher falls across the State.

Forecast instability for Tasmania on Thursday afternoon via BSCH

 

During the weekend and into next week, multiple cold fronts are then expected to sweep across the State. These fronts will inevitably bring damaging wind gusts with them of 90-110km/h (which is fairly normal for Tasmania). The better news though is theyll bring widespread RAIN! Between Saturday and Tuesday, falls of 50-100mm are possible across Western TAS, with falls of 25-50mm over the North and South East of the State. Isolated higher falls are also possible. The second cold front is also expected to be linked to a vigorous low pressure system half way between Tasmania and Antarctica – this will allow for Antarctic Winter air to surge up behind the system and engulf Tasmania Tuesday into Wednesday which may lead to some snow flurries occurring during the overnight hours – this par of the forecast is subject to change, as it is Summer, so if conditions aren’t 100% right, then that snow could turn to rain very quickly – even so, its still rain!

10 day snowfall forecast for Tasmania via Windy

 

4 02, 2019

Central Coast and Whitsundays up to 1 meter of rain now forecast!

Issued 4th February 2019. HEADS UP Central Coast and Whitsundays from Sarina to Bowen including Mackay, Proserpine and Arlie Beach. The monsoon trough which has flooded Townsville during the past week is now forecast to shift South. Heavy Rainfall and Flooding a high risk. Above image via Windy.com next 3 to 5 day rainfall totals. 

A tropical low is currently located over North West QLD with a strong monsoonal wind flow extending down the NQLD coast. The monsoon trough which has been anchored over Townsville for many days has now finally shifted. Unfortunately this will mean other locations will now likely experience heavy rainfall with a high risk of flooding.

During Monday afternoon the main convergence zone is located on the Central Coast very close to Mackay. The heaviest rainfall since 9am to 5pm was at Sandy Plateau with 75mm. While the rain has finally eased in Townsville with 15mm, it has now started in Mackay and Proserpine with 15 to 30mm recorded. This will be a tame start of things to come… 

On Tuesday the tropical low is expected to remain stationary in North West QLD while the monsoon trough gains intensity from the Whitsundays to Mackay. Heavy rainfall is very likely to develop along with strong winds which may reach damaging strength of 90kmhr along the Central Coast. 24 hour rainfall totals of 100 to 200mm possible with locally high falls to 350mm. Some very intense heavy rain areas and severe thunderstorms may also develop producing severe and dangerous flash flooding. The Central Coast region is saturated from recent rainfall so it generally won’t take as much rainfall to causing flooding. Below image: Monsoon trough via Windy.com

During Wednesday the forecast is expected to be near exactly the same as Tuesday. On Thursday and Friday the tropical low could finally move East out of North West QLD into North East districts. This is likely to contract the monsoon trough back towards the North but deep onshore winds will maintain rain through the Central Coast and Whitsundays. 

3 to 5 day current rainfall accumulation totals are forecast to be between 500 to 1000mm from Proserpine to Sarina. Inland areas such as Moranbah, Collinsville and Bowen are currently expecting 150 to 300mm. 

Flash flooding will be a high risk, River Flooding is likely with strong to damaging winds for the next 3 to 5 days along the CQLD coast. Please watch our LIVE VIDEO update and forecast on Facebook tonight (Monday) at 7:30pm QLD time which will also cover Townsville to Mackay.  

Detailed, accurate HSC forecasts and maps for Queensland available via our Premium Membership HERE! 

 

 

 

30 01, 2019

Ross River Dam Townsville To Reach 100% Today!

Issued 30th January 2019. With heavy rainfall continuing across the catchment, Townsville’s Ross River Dam is expected to reach 100% storage capacity later today. Above image sourced. Townsville’s detailed heavy rain forecast for today is available HERE! 

Just 2 days ago the level was down to 64% but over the past 24hrs that has risen by 20%. At 7am this morning the dam was at 89.8% or 38.10m.

Now at 10:30am further fast rises up to 38.35m which is about 95% have occurred. The 100% gated spillway level is 38.55m so there is just 24cm to go until 100% full supply is reached.

By 3pm this afternoon based off current inflows, Ross River Dam will likely be at 100%. The reservoir has a current capacity of 233,187 megalitres of water and can hold up to 803,565 megalitres of water in flood mitigation. Below image via BOM at 10am Jan 30th 2019.

Further heavy rainfall is expected for the next week across the region with flash flooding and river flooding likely to continue. We may see many if not all of the rivers and creeks across the Townsville region reach MODERATE to MAJOR flooding. LATEST BLOG FORECAST HERE! 

Currently the Haughton R at Giru and Mt Piccaninny is at Major flood level and rising. The Bohle R at Hervey Range Rd is at moderate flood level and rising. Subscribe to HSC here for detailed forecasts and maps for Townsville! 

29 01, 2019

Another week of rain with MAJOR flooding a big risk!

Issued 29th January 2019. Parts of the Central Coast and North Tropical Coast of Queensland are forecast to receive widespread rainfall totals of 250 to 500mm and up to another 1500mm over the next 5 to 10 days! Some locations have already recorded 500mm of rain and record flooding. Conditions are saturated now and with these very high forecast total widespread flooding is becoming a high risk. Above image: Next 10 day rainfall forecast totals via ECMWF and Windy.com Red = 250+, Black = 500+, Purple = 1000mm+. NOTE: A separate forecast blog is currently HERE for inland areas! 

A Tropical Low is currently located in the Gulf district which is forecast to remain very slow moving. A monsoon trough is located across the Southern Tropics between Mackay and Townsville which is near stationary. A very deep and moist onshore tropical wind flow extends along the Northern and Central coasts of Queensland. This pattern is expected to remain relatively unchanged during the next 3 days.

From Friday onwards the North West monsoon flow is forecast to strengthen significantly across Northern QLD in response to a positive MJO phase across the Western Pacific. In fact the MJO is expected to stall over the Western Pacific for over a week which is rare. A combination of these 2 factors will ensure the Tropical Low across Northern QLD (In the Gulf vicinity) grows in size and intensity. There is a greatly increased risk of tropical Cyclone development in the Gulf and Coral Sea. In the meantime the Monsoon trough to the east of the Tropical Low is expected to traverse between Townsville and Mackay, possibly as high as Cairns again. Below image: Madden Julian Oscillation via CPC phase 6 is over North QLD. 

RAIN RAIN AND MORE RAIN!

Every day for the next 10 days rain and storms are forecast across the Peninsula, North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Herbert and Lower Burdekin Central Coast and Whitsundays districts. DAILY rainfall totals of 100mm likely and up to 250mm under the monsoon troughs location which may lead to flash flooding. 5 day rainfall totals of 250 to 500mm from Proserpine to Cairns with falls as high as 1000mm possible which is likely to lead to flash flooding and river flooding – we could include inland areas such as Collinsville, Georgetown and Charters Towers. 10 day rainfall totals of 500 to 1000mm from Mackay to Tully with falls as high as 1500mm is cause for a high risk of river flooding possibly MAJOR flooding. 

While this is not a cyclone with the extra risks wind and surge, the rainfall forecast figures are double to triple the amount. This system has the potential to become life threatening due to severe flash flooding and major river flooding. We are advising the people of Central and North QLD to remain vigilant during this time. Keep a VERY close eye on daily forecasts and live warnings as critical situations can unfold in just a few hours! 

We will continue to pass on live updates through our facebook page, group, website and app. Please stay safe everyone there is a long way to go yet…

Detailed, accurate, rainfall, storm and cyclone forecasts and maps available for QLD via our premium membership service HERE! 

29 01, 2019

GOOD Rain & Storms Forecast For Northern & Central Inland QLD

Issued January 29th 2019. Widespread rain, showers and storms have a very high chance across large parts of Northern inland and Central inland Queensland during the next 3 days. 50 to 100mm totals look likely EAST of a line from about Burketown, Mt Isa, Winton, Longreach and North from about Yaraka, Blackall, Jericho and Moranbah. NOTE – this forecast is for inland areas only with a separate forecast for coastal regions East of the ranges HERE!. Above image: 3 day rainfall forecast via Windy.com Dark Blue to Green = 50 to 100mm. 

A Tropical Low is currently located in the Gulf district which is forecast to remain very slow moving. A monsoon trough is located across the Southern Tropics between Mackay and Townsville which is near stationary. A very deep and moist onshore tropical wind flow extends well into Central inland and Northern inland parts of Queensland. This flow is colliding the a high pressure ridge and weak convergence zone from about Mackay to Longreach.

Scattered showers, storms and rain areas are expected to develop this afternoon, tomorrow and Thursday across above mentioned areas before contracting further North on Friday. Locally moderate to heavy falls likely under storms with some storms likely severe. Overnight rain areas are possible after storms with moderate falls. Flash flooding a risk under heavy rain. 

After months of very dry hot conditions and years of on going drought, it finally looks very promising for these areas to get some good rainfall. It won’t be drought breaking by any means with many people only believing it when they see it. At HSC are very hopeful of this forecast but while some may unfortunately miss out, many will get some rain. 

Get our 24 hour daily rainfall and storm forecasts across QLD by subscribing here! 

 

26 01, 2019

The Monsoon Trough Is Forecast To Go Crazy Over NQLD!

Issued 26th January 2019. A tropical low with amplifying monsoon trough is located over North Queensland with over 1 meter of rain forecast! Heavy Rain is expected to lead to flooding across the region for at least the next week. Above image: 10 day rainfall accumulation via Windy.com

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A Tropical Low is currently located over land near Kowanyarma moving South. It is expected to continue moving South for the next 24 to 48hrs before moving further West through the Gulf District. Due to being over land the system is not expected to develop into a cyclone. A monsoon trough lies across the North Tropical Coast which is also slowly forecast to move South adjacent to the low. 

Heavy rainfall is likely to continue across the North Tropical Coast while spreading further South into the Herbert and Lower Burdekin, eventually also into the Central Coast and Whitsundays during the next 5 days. Daily rainfall totals over 100mm are expected with 200mm a day possible with the trough. 300 to 400mm has already fallen across the Cairns region over the past few days causing flash flooding and minor river flooding. 

Flooding is expected to continue for a week as the system remains across the North East of the state. We may see periods of Major Flooding depending on exactly where the heaviest falls occur in a short duration. 

Some 5 day forecast totals include Cairns, Cardwell, Ingham, Townsville, Ayr, Bowen, Charters Towers, Collinsville, Mt Coolon and Proserpine all 250mm with the potential for heavy falls of 500mm+ at any of these locations. Rainfall tapers off into Mackay with 100mm forecast all up at this stage.

A continuation of the monsoon trough and further embedded lows during the 5 to 10 day forecast range is suggesting that areas between Port Douglas to Ingham could see 10 day totals of 800 to 1300mm.  A Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall leading to flooding is current.

HSC offers daily, weekly and monthly rainfall forecasts across Queensland. Access these detailed and accurate forecasts by subscribing here! 

24 01, 2019

Record Challenging Heat To Hit NSW & VIC

Friday across both Victoria and New South Wales could be one for not just local records, but State records! Above image via Weatherzone showing 50ºc near Menindee, NSW!

The system which has brought inferno, blast furnace heat to South Australia, is expected to move East and scorch New South Wales and Victoria with a fury that we have not have seen before! When people think of some of the worst heat days in NSW and VIC, they think of Black Saturday 2009, the Canberra Bushfires and February 2017 for NSW. Friday’s heat ‘could’ trump them all, and the fire threat will rightfully be elevated because of that!

 

The trough system is expected to move across South Australia, bringing cooler areas to Southern districts. However, this will allow the heat to be funnelled into Victoria and large portions of Inland NSW. Coastal areas won’t be spared, but they won’t be “as hot” as what Saturday is providing. The focus of the heat will be over South West NSW and Far North West VIC. Menindee, Wilcannia, Hay and Pooncarie are officially going for 48ºc, however OCF is throwing up the potential for 49ºc around Menindee and Pooncarie, and BOM ACCESS R data is showing a grey bullseye over Menindee which is indicating the potential for 50-52ºc! The majority of Inland NSW is expected to exceed 45ºc with many locations heading for 47ºc or higher. The current NSW record is held by Menindee with a scorching 49.7ºc back in the infamous 1939 heatwave that has been mentioned several times for South Australia. Only twice in history, has NSW officially recorded 49ºc – the other being Walgett in 2014 – this not only means several local records may be challenged or surpassed, but the State record and the 50ºc milestone may be challenged!

 

NSW OCF Forecast Maximums for Friday via BSCH

 

 

Across VIC, the North West is expected to see maximums push the mid to high 40’s as well, with Mildura going for 47ºc and many nearby areas going for 45ºc+. The current State record is 48.8ºc set back in 2009 during Black Saturday. Out of the NSW and VIC State records being challenged, its less likely that the VIC one will go… but its still a chance given how much over forecasts some of these hotspots have been lately. The official record for Mildura (Airport, not Post Office) is 46.9ºc which could quite easily go (although the unofficial record of 50.7ºc back in 1906 at the Airport won’t be budged – why this isn’t an official State record / National record, is beyond me as its in the Mildura Post Office data). Melbourne is expected to push the 43 to 44ºc mark which would make it the hottest day since either 2014 (43ºc) or Black Saturday (44ºc). It wouldn’t be a surprise if Melbourne reached 45-46ºc and challenged its Black Saturday record given whats happened in South Australia on Thursday and so far during this heatwave. Large portions of VIC are expected to exceed 44ºc which will challenge many January records.

 

VIC OCF Forecast Maximums for Friday via BSCH

 

 

Across VIC and assumably Southern and Western NSW, severe to extreme fire danger ratings have been issued with total fire bans already in place. As the change moves through, strong to possibly damaging wind gusts are expected to combine with extreme heat to provide idealistic conditions for fires to erupt. Please be smart and if you see a fire, call authorities ASAP! 

 

VIC Fire Danger Rating via the CFA