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19 09, 2020

Record Rain & Storms September 2020

2020-09-19T10:34:02+10:00

Issued 19th Sept 2020. Above image via Weatherzone.com.au

Some incredible rainfall totals over South West QLD and rural parts of SA over the past 24hrs from Friday to 9am Saturday 19th September!

* Marree (SA) 93mm – NEW September daily record

* Vergemont Creek (QLD) 74mm

* Ballera Gas Field (QLD) 51mm

* Woomera (SA) 41mm – NEW September daily record

* Stonehenge (QLD) 40mm

* Windorah (QLD) 31mm – Wettest September day since 1943 (77 years)

* Boulia (QLD) 27mm – Wettest September day since 1926 (94 years)

* Roxby Downs (SA) 25mm – NEW September daily record

Note: The 93mm in 24hrs at Marree is not just a daily record, but the individual day has broken the previous monthly record too.

SATURDAY RAIN & STORM FORECAST: A cut off low is located over South Australia which is slow moving (red circle). A trough from the low extends through Western QLD, Western NSW, North West Victoria and Eastern SA (blue shaded area). This trough is producing widespread rain with scattered thunderstorms – many thunderstorms are SEVERE with heavy rain, flash flooding and damaging winds. Large hail is possible in some of the strongest storms. September rainfall records have been broken with more likely to follow today.

For detailed rainfall and thunderstorm forecasts and maps join our weather service by clicking here! 

Record Rain & Storms September 20202020-09-19T10:34:02+10:00
15 09, 2020

La Nina CLIMATE ALERT

2020-09-15T13:58:37+10:00

***CLIMATE ALERT*** Issued 15th Sept 2020
The STRONGEST La Nina since 2010/11 is now forecast by a majority of global model data sets. We could very well see a moderate strength -1.5C La Nina develop by December. This is increasing the odds even higher now for above average rain, floods, storms and cyclones this season. Long range rainfall and cyclone outlooks are available on our website here > https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/

La Nina CLIMATE ALERT2020-09-15T13:58:37+10:00
12 09, 2020

La Nina Declared by US and Japan

2020-09-12T14:41:35+10:00


Issued 12th September 2020. The Climate Prediction Centre and Japan Meteorological Agency have both declared a La Nina weather pattern is current which is likely to continue through into the Southern Hemisphere Summer. This confirmation from two of the worlds leading forecast agencies fully supports both our lead up and current Higgins long range forecasts. A moderate strength La Nina is now also becoming possible as global models forecast further cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the next 3 months. Above image: JAMSTEC

What does La Nina “often” mean for Australia???
Above average rainfall across Northern, Central and Eastern Australia.
An increased risk of flooding, more frequent storms with more severe storms.
A higher number of cyclones and tropical lows. In fact today we have just completed our cyclone outlook revision for Australia for to 2020/21 season. We have forecast a total of 15 cyclones with 8 being severe (cat 3+) and 25 tropical lows. Our full cyclone outlook details and maps for Eastern (QLD), Northern (NT) and Western (WA) will be issued on our subscription weather service within the next 5 days.
To gain access to our cyclone outlook, cyclone and tropical low track maps become a HSC subscriber here! 

La Nina Declared by US and Japan2020-09-12T14:41:35+10:00
31 08, 2020

Say Goodbye to Winter Queensland.

2020-08-31T11:48:59+10:00

Winter is now done and dusted for QLD and any hope of anymore ‘cold’ conditions is long gone as we see temperatures ramp up across the entire week through the majority of the State. Above image via PivotalWeather showing areas in red as above average mid week – which covers most of the State.

BECOME A HIGGINS STORM CHASING SUBSCRIBER TODAY!

A large and warm air mass is expected to cover most of the State during Monday and Tuesday before an even warmer air mass on Wednesday will enter Western QLD which will be enhanced by North Westerly winds and a trough coming out of the very hot North West NT and Northern WA Kimberley. This warmer air mass will become very slow moving and shift Eastwards during Thursday, Friday and Saturday before exiting off the QLD Coast on Sunday. During Monday and Tuesday, widespread maximums into the 30’s are expected over Inland QLD before temperatures increase into the mid 30’s over Western areas on Wednesday. Across Southern and Central Inland areas, the peak heating will be split across both Thursday and Friday depending on the exact location – with peak temperatures into the 30’s and possibly even nudging the mid 30’s for some areas. For South Eastern QLD the peak heat will be on Saturday although noticeably warmer conditions will be around on Thursday too – this will include some areas of Western Brisbane and Inland parts of the South East Coast pushing into the 30’s. 

OCF maximums for Wednesday via WeatherWatch

While nothing too exceptional is forecast for the Tropics thanks to an onshore breeze containing the heat to some degree, very warm conditions are likely for Northern Inland and the Gulf which is near normal for this time of year as the heat is exceptionally dry through this part of the State. Its unlikely that any records will be broken across the State with this burst of heat – however the main thing to take away is saying goodbye to Winter and welcoming the start of Summer. 

OCF maximums for Friday via WeatherWatch

Say Goodbye to Winter Queensland.2020-08-31T11:48:59+10:00
25 08, 2020

La Nina Threshold Reached

2020-08-25T10:44:47+10:00


Issued 25th August 2020. The Nino 3.4 region has recorded -0.8C below average sea surface temperatures on the 24th of August 2020. This is now at the official Australian threshold for La Nina. Low level 850-hpa Easterly trade winds are stronger than normal across the Western Pacific which is supportive of a developing La Nina. Suppressed convection and precipitation has been observed across the Western Pacific which is also supportive of a developing La Nina. The Southern Oscillation Index has remained positive. Above image via CPC NCEP NOAA

A majority of global forecast models including BOMs ACCESS S1 already suggest that a La Nina weather pattern is VERY LIKELY during the rest of 2020 possibly into early 2021. Below image via CPC NCEP NOAA

To officially be declared a La Nina, the -0.8C SST in the Nino 3.4 region will have to be at least maintained or cooler for a number of weeks along with all the other supportive atmospheric anomalies. La Nina weather patterns often bring increased Tropical Lows and Cyclones, increased rainfall and storms with a higher risk of flooding across large parts of Australia. Interesting times ahead with high hopes for good rainfall across Northern and Eastern Australia over the next 6 months! Below image: La Nina example from BOM

Long range 1 month and 3 month rainfall and temperature maps including a cyclone season outlook and map is available through our Higgins Storm Chasing weather subscription service HERE! Become a HSC premium member today and you will know what weather to expect… 

La Nina Threshold Reached2020-08-25T10:44:47+10:00
14 08, 2020

La Nina To Enhance Cyclones, Rain and Storms This Season!

2020-08-14T13:14:16+10:00


Issued 14th August 2020. A developing weak La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean is expected to greatly influence Australia’s weather this year! Large parts of Northern and Eastern Australia could see above average rainfall, while Queensland and the Northern Territory will have to watch for a higher number of cyclones. A big storm season is also tipped across NSW and QLD. Above image via JAMSTEC

 The latest global model data has just been updated and it’s indicating a weak La Nina weather pattern will develop in September. Even if the sea surface temperatures fall just short of the BOM’s -0.8C La Nina threshold, a huge area of cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean has already developed anyway. This will now be the primary climate driver across the South Pacific where it will significantly increase the moisture feed across Northern and Eastern Australia during the next 6 months.

 

High pressure systems are forecast to be further East near New Zealand feeding huge amounts of moisture across the Tasman and Coral Sea deep into surface troughs across QLD, NSW the ACT and VIC. These troughs will generate showers, rain areas and thunderstorms with many storms being SEVERE containing Heavy Rainfall, Flash Flooding, Large Hail and Damaging Winds. They troughs are likely to be quasi stationary moving East to the coast on occasions then redeveloping inland shortly after.

Increased North West monsoon winds coupled with more frequent MJO positive phases and a stronger monsoon trough are also likely across Northern Australia and Northern QLD. This should bring increased widespread rainfall and storms with higher chances of tropical low and tropical cyclone development both in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Arafura Sea and Timor Sea. Tropical systems in these areas can often travel through Central Australia bringing widespread rain and flooding. 

 

Due to the increasing the Easterly trade winds across the Central and Western Pacific, the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) in the Coral Sea and Solomon Sea is expected to be much more stronger and active tis season. Tropical Lows and Cyclones will have a much higher risk of development in these areas which could easily track West and South West posing a significant risk to Queensland, not just once but multiple times.

We will be working very hard with forecasts and warnings this year by the looks of things…. Not to mention chasing hard! 

Detailed HSC cyclone, rainfall and storm maps are always available in high detail on our website. Subscribe and all your questions will be answered 🙂  > https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/

La Nina To Enhance Cyclones, Rain and Storms This Season!2020-08-14T13:14:16+10:00
17 07, 2020

HSC takes Queensland & South East QLD weather forecast maps to next level!

2020-07-17T15:03:09+10:00

Over the past month our highly valued and skilled employee Thomas Hinterdorfer from Higgins Storm Chasing has been very working hard behind the scenes to produce our new significantly improved in-house high resolution weather forecast maps for QLD and SEQLD. 
The 4 new maps have taken many many hours to develop starting right back at the base layer where we have left no stone unturned. During the next week we will be releasing these new QLD & SEQLD maps for the 0-5 day daily rainfall and thunderstorm forecasts to existing premium members on our website at no extra charge. This upgrade will be closely followed by the new 7 day rainfall and temperature forecast maps, 1 month and 3 month rainfall and temperature outlook maps. 
We believe our new map products will lead the way in weather forecasting for high detail, fantastic clarity and very good accuracy to all users for many years to come. Everyday of the year, each Higgins forecast and map is human produced by either Jeff Higgins or Thomas Hinterdorfer using vast amounts of raw global model data. Our forecasts do not come from BOM or one data source nor are they computer generated like a majority of other weather forecasts that are currently available. 
Our NSW, ACT and VIC state maps as well as the North Eastern NSW zoomed forecast maps will also receive the same full upgrades within the next few months. 
An upgraded Tropical Cyclone and Tropical Low forecast track map will also be developed by November ready for this cyclone season. 

 

If you want to know the weather is doing everyday and be able to be fully prepared for the storm and cyclone season ahead, consider becoming a Higgins Premium Member HERE! 

Thunderstorm forecast risk maps (above image and below image) have been redeveloped from the base layer up. Upgraded 4 tier thunderstorm forecast risk legend with a new layout and new wording for what each colour shade represents. Increased colour opacity. Additional town locations with improved text. 

 

 

Rainfall forecast maps (below images) have been redeveloped from the base layer up. Upgraded rainfall legend with a completely new colour spectrum to display lower to higher rainfall amounts that are more discernible from each other. We have also introduced new rainfall forecast tiers of 200-300mm, 300mm+, 0-5mm and 5-10mm. This will account for the monsoon season or any tropical cyclone or low pressure developments where excessive rainfall often occurs in a 24 hour period. It will also help with determining whether or not a few drops of rain or 10mm is possible as the old scale was 0-10mm and we deemed this to be too large of a gap. Additional town locations with improved text. 

 

Upgrades to all 4 thunderstorm and rainfall maps – Expansion of both the QLD thunderstorm and rainfall map coverage are to include more of the Northern Territory and more of New South Wales. Similar expansion into North East NSW on the South East QLD zoomed map. These changes are for the benefit of covering forecast grey areas which are close to the respective regional borders as well as a new merging feature that we are implementing where all maps used across the website will be of the same size. 
Additional town locations with a feature to allow us to add more names where we see fit and also control the size and spread of the names. There are currently between 58 and 63 town names on the state map & 73 town names on the South East QLD map. Reduced the number of town names over South Eastern QLD on the QLD state map to reduce the name clutter in the area. While this is a reduction on the state map, MORE town locations have been introduced on the South East QLD zoom map to counter this. Altered the settings on map layers so that the town names are now on top instead of being masked behind the colour shading. This allows us to use deeper colours without hindering the visibility of locations. 
Added the naming of the Gulf of Carpentaria and Coral Sea for geographical purposes on the state map. Reduced the overall size of the maps which will allow us more room for using them in emails and will also allow us to post them on the website at a higher quality. Removal of all weather trend icons (sun, shower, rain, storm, snow) on the new maps. Originally we had no change for this but after further discussions behind the scenes we believe the maps and much clearer without the icons and they were redundant. 
Changed the South East QLD detailed map box to exactly the same size as the South East QLD zoom forecast maps. Removal of all old weather icons (sun, shower, rain, storm, snow) on maps. Originally we had no change for this but after further discussions behind the scenes we believe the icons were becoming redundant due to written text forecasts.

Access to these maps including comprehensive forecast text can be obtained by clicking on our logo below! 

HSC takes Queensland & South East QLD weather forecast maps to next level!2020-07-17T15:03:09+10:00
16 07, 2020

QLD: Increased forecast risk of cyclones, rain and storms this season!

2020-07-16T10:22:22+10:00


Issued on 16th July 2020. Queensland is facing an increased forecast risk of cyclone activity, along with higher chances of rainfall and storms during the 2020/21 wet season. Generally most of Northern and Eastern Australia is in line to receive much better rainfall than the last few years. This current forecast outlook is based off confidence for a developing La Nina like weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean for the rest of this year. Above image via JAMSTEC

Now that we are through the Winter barrier, long range global data is much more reliable. This latest global data has just been updated during the past 24 hours and it’s indicating strong potential for a weak La Nina weather pattern to develop. Even if the ENSO falls just short of the offical -0.8C La Nina threshold, cooler than neutral sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected. This will become the primary climate driver from September onwards where it should significantly increase the moisture feed across Northern and Eastern Australia. Below image via CPC

High pressure systems are forecast to be further East near New Zealand feeding moisture into inland surface troughs across QLD and NSW. These troughs will generate showers rain areas and thunderstorms with many storms being SEVERE containing Heavy Rainfall, Flash Flooding, Large Hail and Damaging Winds. They troughs are likely to be quasi stationary moving East to the coast on occasions then redeveloping inland shortly after.
Increased North West monsoon winds with more frequent MJO positive phases are also likely across Northern Australia bringing widespread rain and storms with higher chances of cyclone development and flooding.
Due to the weak La Nina increasing the Easterly trade winds across the Central and Western Pacific, the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) in the Coral Sea is expected to be much more active. Tropical Cyclones will have a higher risk of developing in the Coral Sea then depending on exact synoptic patterns and steering ridges at that time, they could easily track West and South West to impact Queensland. Below image via JAMSTEC

Based off current global model data outputs, I believe we are in for a very active wet, storm and cyclone season during 2020/21. There will be some people who miss out but overall the rainfall prospects are a hell of a lot better than the past few years. The downside? Damage is also expected from storms, floods and cyclones. Any year can be a category 5 year so be prepared by becoming a Higgins Storm Chasing premium member. Detailed cyclone, rainfall and storm maps are always available in high detail on our website here > https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/

QLD: Increased forecast risk of cyclones, rain and storms this season!2020-07-16T10:22:22+10:00
28 06, 2020

Big Sunrises and Sunsets Could Return to QLD!

2020-06-28T11:54:55+10:00

It looks like there is a ‘chance’ of some big sunsets returning to QLD over the coming week – more so towards the end of the week as some favourable atmospheric conditions come together to produce the right setup on multiple days. Above image via HSC Admin Michelle.

Sunsets are one of those things that when they go off, they’re amazing – but from a forecasting perspective, the best of them either usually occur when conditions are on a knifes edge for being ‘epic’ or extremely underwhelming and this is because it often comes down purely to live conditions as the smallest hindering factor could change the outcome entirely. What we often look for is high level cloud (cirrus, cirrocumulus etc) that fills the sky but isn’t hindered by anything on the horizon. This will allow the bottom or underside of the cloud to be ignited when the sun is setting and the light has a free run between the horizon and the clouds. Any low level clouds can completely hinder this, and they don’t even need to be nearby – they can be 100s of km away. 

High cloud over Southern Inland QLD on Thursday morning. Image via Windy

 

 

This upcoming week though is showing good signs of producing the right conditions and it will just come down to the live conditions on the day as to whether or not one places sees a sea of red, orange, pink or yellow… and another place sees nothing. Models are indicating the arrival of a weak upper trough over Southern QLD on Wednesday night / Thursday morning which will help produce some localised high cloud over Southern Inland QLD (could be good for a Thursday morning sunrise). 

Upper cloud then spreads in bands across Inland QLD and Southern / Central QLD during Friday which may help produce a short lived, but intense sunset for Coastal areas and a more prolonged but possibly not quite as intense sunset over Inland areas. Saturday has some similar potential to Friday as well.

High cloud over various parts of QLD on Friday evening. Image via Windy.

 

The big one which we will monitor closely will be on Sunday evening and Monday morning when an upper trough across Southern and Western QLD and the Northern Territory produces a massive band of high cloud over the majority of the State. We have compiled a side by side view of the high cloud and low cloud which shows its virtually 100% high cloud and 0% low cloud and this may lead to numerous places seeing an amazing sunset on either Sunday night and/or on Monday morning (Jul 6).

Of course none of this is a guarantee, but it could be something to keep in the back of your mind from Wednesday through to the following Monday and hopefully one or two of the days can come off and offer some great photographic opportunities or a relaxing way to finish the work day or weekend!

High cloud (left), low cloud (right) across QLD on Sunday evening and Monday morning. Image via Windy.

Big Sunrises and Sunsets Could Return to QLD!2020-06-28T11:54:55+10:00
12 06, 2020

Coolest Pacific In 3 Years For The Rest Of 2020

2020-06-12T11:07:47+10:00


Issued 12th June 2020. While the Indian Ocean does a positive backflip reducing the chance of rain across Australia, the equatorial Pacific Ocean has already cooled and is forecast to remain cooler than normal for the next 6 to 9 months. Its the first time in 3 years this has happened and it could be the Australia’s rainfall saviour for the rest of 2020 and even into 2021. Above image: Sea surface temperature anomalies for June to August via JAMSTEC. 

The Pacific Ocean ENSO between Australia and America is where the El Nino (warm water = dry) and La Nina (cool water = wet) climate driver develops. In 2010/11 a strong La Nina caused severe flooding across QLD, NSW and Victoria, sense then we have seen one of the strongest El Nino’s in 2015. Over the past 2 years the ENSO has been right on the El Nino temperature threshold but regardless it still delivered a severe blow to the Australian rainfall resulting in one of the worst droughts in living memory. Its a drought we are still in and suffering badly from. 

A majority of global models right now are forecasting the cooler than normal Pacific Ocean to continue with NEAR but not quiet reaching the La Nina threshold. It does not matter if it reaches the magic -0.5C or -0.8C La Nina level as model data is already suggesting increased Easterly trade winds across the Coral Sea with more moisture and near average rainfall across most of Australia for the next 6 months. Below image: 3.4 seas surface temp forecast via JAMSTEC. 

So stuff the Indian, watch the Pacific and think NEAR AVERAGE, NOT ABOVE AVERAGE rainfall for the rest of 2020. If most places can manage to get near average rainfall instead of the shitty severe drought conditions like last year, I’m sure we will be much happier. 
Oh and BTW Higgins Storm Chasing offers long range forecasts for QLD, NSW, the ACT and Victoria. Click here for more details on our website! 

Coolest Pacific In 3 Years For The Rest Of 20202020-06-12T11:07:47+10:00
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