Forecast

/Forecast
15 10, 2019

Storms returning to South East & Central East QLD – some severe!

2019-10-15T12:34:00+10:00


Issued Tuesday 15th October for Thursday 17th October 2019. 

Hi everyone,
high instability levels are expected to lead to scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the South East and Central East QLD. Some storms are expected to be severe with large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall are more likely but not limited to the red circled area.
These are the highest instability levels observed so far this storm season and it is a timely reminder to ensure all precautions around the home and at work are carried out. Securing loose items such as trampolines from damaging winds is important to prevent them from becoming deadly projectiles.
A majority of storm damage is caused to cars by large hail. It’s important to note that while travelling to keep up with the latest severe storm warnings. On many occasions avoiding large hail is as simple as pulling over or delaying your travel for 15 minutes outside of a storms core.
Our thunderstorm risk maps for SEQLD & QLD have been issued on our website in the premium member forecast area. Login here!  Or subscribe here!

Trusted sponsor: For maximised TAX, BAS & GST returns with no fuss and great personalised customer service, give Aaron a call at Complete Tax & Financial Services in Brisbane >

Storms returning to South East & Central East QLD – some severe!2019-10-15T12:34:00+10:00
13 10, 2019

Hot Conditions Increasing For QLD

2019-10-13T17:15:32+10:00

Much of QLD is expected to endure hot conditions over the next several days, triggering an increased risk of bushfires and some raised dusty / dusty conditions. Above image – Maximums across the State on Wednesday.

 

While we have had our up and down temperatures across the State over the past several weeks – last week being a perfect example where parts of South East QLD came within 0.2ºc of breaking 80 year old October records with 41ºc+ and then a matter of days later, it becomes the 8th coldest day of the year for the area. However these next few days (started in part today – Sunday – in South West areas) are expected to resemble truer Summer conditions.

 

Across the period of Monday to Wednesday, the majority of Inland QLD is forecast to push into the high 30’s and low 40’s. Some areas, like Birdsville are expected to climb up to around 43ºc while Longreach is one of many locations expecting to see 3 consecutive days of 40ºc+. While these temperatures are certainly NOT uncommon for this time of year (look at October 2018 as an example when Birdsville had temperatures push 45ºc and Winton reached 40ºc+ for the last 9 days of the month)… they are a sign that December and January are just around the corner, and they are still WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. For Winton, Tuesday or Wednesday could push 43ºc and challenge for the hottest day of the year so far. The most intense of the heat is expected to be on Wednesday when the majority of Inland areas are likely to see 40ºc+. 

Maximums across QLD on Monday via BSCH / OCF

 

 

Luckily for those on the Coast, while the temperatures will rise – they aren’t expected to be anywhere near as bad. Maximums are expected to reach the mid 30’s across Interior parts of Coastal districts on Wednesday – however the Coastline itself will be more than tolerable. Similar temperatures are expected across these areas on Thursday as a cool change starts to move through, however maximums are likely to increase across Inland parts of the Wide Bay and South East Coast compared to that of Wednesday with temperatures peaking in the mid 30’s.

Maximums across QLD during Thursday via BSCH / OCF

 

Hot Conditions Increasing For QLD2019-10-13T17:15:32+10:00
13 10, 2019

‘Severe’ Fire Danger Potential Across Southern QLD Again

2019-10-13T16:58:54+10:00

Another round of severe fire conditions are expected across Southern and parts of South East and Central QLD on Monday and Tuesday as hot, dry, gusty conditions dominate the State. Above image – Maximums for Tuesday via BSCH / OCF.

 

Southern and South East QLD are expected to see another round of severe fire danger potential across Monday and Tuesday. This is all being generated by a broad low pressure region across Northern NSW / Southern QLD which is linked to a trough. This combination is drawing in hot and dry air across Northern NSW and across the majority of QLD during the period of Monday to Thursday. However – with the low pressure region in place on Monday and Tuesday, gusty winds are expected to circulate around it which will amplify conditions.

Wind gusts across the State on Monday & Tuesday. Orange >40km/h, Pink >60km/h. Image via Windy

 

On Monday, the focus of the fire threat will be over Southern Inland QLD through the Warrego and Maranoa, however very high fire dangers will persist across the majority of Inland QLD. Across the Warrego & Maranoa, temperatures are expected to peak at around 38-40ºc with winds gusting to between 40 and 60km/h, possibly locally higher during the afternoon. These winds will also likely produce some raised dust across the region.

On Tuesday, the heat spreads further East. Maximums are expected to climb into the mid to high 30’s across Southern & Central QLD, possibly even nudging 40ºc in some areas. This will combine with sporadically gusty winds of 30-50km/h across the Darling Downs & Granite Belt along with the Central Highlands to produce severe fire potential. Strong winds and hot temperatures into the low 40’s are expected across Northern Inland QLD too. 

Fire Danger Risk for Monday and Tuesday across QLD via QFES

 

 

During Wednesday and Thursday the majority of Inland QLD is expected to be covered by ‘very high’ fire dangers and these could increase further, particularly on Thursday when hot conditions persist across the majority of the State along with  the addition of a cool change brings in very strong winds across extensive parts of the State. 

Wind gusts across the State on Thursday. Orange >40km/h, Pink >60km/h. Image via Windy

‘Severe’ Fire Danger Potential Across Southern QLD Again2019-10-13T16:58:54+10:00
12 10, 2019

Typhoon Hagibis likely to directly hit Tokyo

2019-10-12T16:16:00+10:00

Typhoon Hagibis remains a very strong, powerful and dangerous system as it approaches Tokyo today (Saturday) and tomorrow (Sunday). Above image via Windy

 

 

Typhoon Hagibis has been an insanely powerful system. On October 5 and 6, Hagibis was over the open waters of the Western Pacific as a very mundane and weak, messy system. In a matter of only a few hours, it showed some of the most insane intensification you could imagine and that has been recorded – which made it become a strong super typhoon with high-end category 5 strength. 

Since then, Haigibis has maintained super typhoon strength for the best part of 5 days which may come close to being a record. It also peaked at an official intensity of 260km/h sustained winds with gusts to around 330-340km/h however its believed that based on visual aspects of the system, it may have even been stronger between regulated updates and if plane recon was available then it could have been one of the strongest systems ever recorded.

 

Past-Hagibis Track via Wiki – Orange dots (Cat 4), Red dots (Super Typhoon / Cat 5)

 

 

Over the past 12 hours, Hagibis has weakened back to category 4 strength and its expected to maintain a slow weakening pattern upon approach to Tokyo over the next 24 hours. The system is forecast to move directly over Tokyo as a Category 3 system with winds gusting to around 180-200km/h. This kind of wind strength over such a heavily populated and heavily built city is likely to cause heavy damage to buildings which will likely lead to a significant monetary damage bill along with significant power disruptions. Heavy rain is also likely however the worst flooding should be in the mountainous terrain as there system is quite fast moving now. Telecommunications are likely to be disrupted in Tokyo as well as surrounding areas, with many villages between Tokyo and the mountains likely to be cut off from debris and flooding as well. 

 

Forecast track map for Hagibis via JTWC

 

 

While the buildings themselves in Tokyo very well built for earthquake reasons – the force of the wind and debris flying through the air due to the close proximity of the typhoon will likely cause windows to blow out and some weaker structures to collapse which will then become a domino effect as that debris gets caught in the wind and impacts more structures. Its advised that anyone still in Tokyo listens to authorities about where to go and what to do as they will ensure safety is paramount.

 

3 day rainfall via Windy showing very heavy rainfall of 100-300mm and isolated higher falls over Japan.

 

Typhoon Hagibis likely to directly hit Tokyo2019-10-12T16:16:00+10:00
8 10, 2019

Cold Temperatures Returning to SEQLD & NENSW With Possible Frost!

2019-10-08T12:09:30+10:00

As quickly as the temperatures have risen, they’re also expected to drop! Over the next WEEK from Wednesday until Monday or Tuesday next week, morning temperatures are expected to plummet across NENSW and parts of SEQLD. Above image – Minimum temperatures for Tuesday night / Wednesday morning via BSCH / OCF

Forecast minimums for Friday morning via BSCH / OCF

It might seem weird, but this is October for you – the best of both worlds with cold and hot and not much in between. West to South West winds are expected to dominate Northern Inland and Interior parts of NENSW during the next week, and these same winds are expected over Southern QLD and Interior parts of SEQLD. What this means is that clear-ish skies and winds coming off the snow capped Alpine areas along with some cooler air aloft will make the perfect ingredients for temperatures to plummet overnight across the aforementioned regions. 

Frost will also be possible across the Northern Tablelands and Granite Belt – but this should only really apply to be most frost-prone areas given the time of year. Temperatures across these areas are expected to drop below 4ºc and raw data is indicating the below 0ºc is expected across the Northern Tablelands on Wednesday, Thursday and Monday morning’s which would make frost more likely – especially Monday morning after rain moistens the ground better prior to Monday.

Forecast minimums for Monday morning via BSCH / OCF

Daytime maximums are expected to struggle too with Friday and Saturday being the coldest due to showers, rain periods and storms dominating these areas (we will get to that soon enough). Guyra is going for just a maximum of 10ºc on Saturday, Armidale 13ºc, Glen Innes 14ºc, Stanthorpe 15ºc.

Coastal areas during this period may be subject to an onshore flow which will keep overnight temperatures in the double digits range, but daytime maximums will also suffer on Friday and Saturday in particular with Brisbane and Ipswich only getting to about 22ºc and parts ofd SEQLD may struggle to reach 20ºc as well with rain and storms keeping temperatures below 20ºc for most of the day. These kinds of temperatures are the flip of what we’ve just experienced, with temperatures up to 8ºc below average. 

Maximums across SEQLD & NENSW for Saturday via OCF / BSCH

 

Cold Temperatures Returning to SEQLD & NENSW With Possible Frost!2019-10-08T12:09:30+10:00
6 10, 2019

Dangerous Fire Conditions Forecast For Monday & Tuesday!

2019-10-06T11:40:40+10:00

Monday and Tuesday are forecast to produce dangerous fire conditions across the South East quarter of QLD and North East NSW as a combination of strong winds, extreme heat, dry heat and the potential for dry lightning combine! Above image – maximums on Tuesday across SEQLD & NENSW via OCF / BSCH.

 

Monday is expected to pose a significant increase in fire danger potential compared to that experienced over the weekend across SEQLD & NENSW. On Monday, maximums are expected to increase by 6-11ºc across both areas with peak temperatures into the low 40’s. These temperatures will combine with extremely low humidity (in the single digits) away from the Coast with models indicating that winds are likely to push up to around 30-50km/h in SEQLD and 40-60km/h possibly even up to 70km/h in NENSW. This will likely result in severe to locally extreme fire danger potential.

Fire Danger Risk via QFES for Monday.

On Tuesday, conditions are only expected to exponentially WORSEN! A surface trough will become positioned directly along the Coast which will block any sea breeze from occurring. This will push very hot and dry winds into the Coast and likely result in temperatures at least remaining as hot as Monday if not becoming even hotter! Winds are forecast to dramatically increase too with strong to damaging West to South West winds feeding into the trough – across SEQLD we are expected to see gusts of 60-80km/h while in NENSW peak gusts may reach 90-100km/h! There is also the threat of dry thunderstorms as instability increases across both areas but with very dry surface conditions at the surface and very dry conditions aloft, these storms will struggle to even dampen the ground – this will lead to dry lightning posing a major risk. As a result of this, we are likely to see widespread severe to extreme fire danger potential and this may increase further as models become far more honed in on the exact conditions expected. 


Forecast wind gusts across SEQLD & NENSW on Tuedsay. Pink is 60-90km/h, blue is 90km/h+ (damaging threshold). Image via Windy.
Fire Danger potential as of Sunday morning (right) via QFES.

 

Dangerous Fire Conditions Forecast For Monday & Tuesday!2019-10-06T11:40:40+10:00
5 10, 2019

Sizzling Heat Forecast To Scorch SEQLD

2019-10-05T09:51:21+10:00

Temperatures are forecast to nudge record breaking levels across South East QLD on Monday and Tuesday as a burst of extreme heat moves across the region! Above image – Maximums for Monday across SEQLD via BSCH / OCF.

 

Over the weekend, the South East QLD & North East NSW region is expected to be impacted by above average temperatures. Saturday looks to reach the low to mid 30’s (hot for this time of year – being early October, but not crazy). A weak cool change is expected to move through NENSW during the day triggering some isolated showers and storms as well as overnight through SEQLD. This should mean that Sunday is fractionally cooler… however Monday and Tuesday are expected to go to a whole new level of heat that is expected to threaten long standing temperature records across the region.

Forecast maximums for Saturday via BSCH / OCF

Forecast maximums for Tuesday via BSCH / OCF

 

During Monday, a surface trough is forecast to become situated very close to the Coast and this will block the sea breeze from most areas and allow hot, dry and at times… gusty, Westerly winds to dominate. These winds are expected to push temperatures into the mid to high 30’s across areas close to the Coast with temperatures back Inland a bit nudging 40-42ºc! On Tuesday, a near identical setup is forecast to occur except with a cool change added into the mix. The timing of the change will mean everything as temperatures will drop rapidly behind it – however it doesn’t look to move through SEQLD until after midnight – so this will likely mean another day of extreme heat.

Forecast maximums for SEQLD on Monday (red) & Tuesday (purple).

The combination of extreme heat, low humidity and the potential for some strong winds will likely lead to increased fire danger threats across the entire region as well on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. However on Tuesday, strong gusty winds are highly likely and this is expected to result in severe to locally extreme fire danger potential. 

On Wednesday, temperatures are expected to rapidly cool and could be up to 10-12ºc colder than on Tuesday in some areas. Storms are also likely to return from Wednesday onwards and these forecasts will be available through our website HERE

 

Sizzling Heat Forecast To Scorch SEQLD2019-10-05T09:51:21+10:00
2 10, 2019

A Surge of Heat Forecast To Sweep Australia!

2019-10-02T11:04:10+10:00

Its only the start of October, but the first item on the agenda for the warm season is an intense heatwave that is forecast to move across Australia, impacting 6 States, during a 6-7 day period starting Thursday! Above image: Maximums across Australia on Sunday via BSCH / OCF.

 

Australia’s heat engine is gearing up to send intense heat across much of Australia to begin October and it all starts in Western Australia on Thursday. While much of the Northern half of the State has already been baking in 38-43ºc heat for the past few days… Thursday is when that heat starts to travel. Virtually all of the Northern half and Eastern half of the State is expected to climb into the 40’s, with South East WA looking at 46-47ºc! Forrest has an October all-time record of 43.3ºc – so there is every chance this could be broken.

OCF Maximums for Western Australia on Thursday, October 3rd via BSCH

 

 

Thursday to Saturday is expected to be South Australia’s turn as well, with the core of the heat sitting over SA on Friday. Coastal areas will avoid it mostly, but Inland areas such as Coober Pedy, Port Augusta, Woomera, Roxby Downs, Tarcoola etc could see 3 straight days above 40ºc. Tarcoola’s 42.9ºc October record could very well be challenged as well on Friday and Saturday. 

OCF Maximums for South Australia on Saturday, October 5th via BSCH

 

New South Wales and far North West VIC see the heat beginning on Friday with maximums into the mid 30’s. For VIC it will be short lived, but for some parts of Northern NSW it will last through to Monday with areas peaking at 40ºc over the weekend and Monday. Dubbo averages 25ºc for October, yet the area is expected to see 5 straight days above 30ºc and a peak temperature of 36ºc on Sunday! Parts of NW NSW are going for 4 straight days above 35ºc – quite normal for Summer, but not so normal for October. 

 

OCF Maximums for NSW, ACT & VIC on Sunday, October 6th via BSCH

 

Queensland sees the heat loosely start over South West, Southern & South East areas on Saturday but across Monday and Tuesday the majority of the State away from the Coastline is likely to climb into the mid to high 30’s, even the low 40’s. For the South East Coast, places like Ipswich and Gatton may see back to back days of 40ºc on Monday and Tuesday.

OCF Maximums for Queensland on Monday, October 7th via BSCH

 

Activity should ease on Wednesday across QLD, but its likely to be ramping up again for another wave of heat with the heat engine in the Pilbara of WA climbing into the low to mid 40’s again. 

OCF Maximums for Australia on Wednesday, October 9th via BSCH showing the heat building across WA again.

 

A Surge of Heat Forecast To Sweep Australia!2019-10-02T11:04:10+10:00
30 09, 2019

2019-20 Tropical Cyclone Outlook Australian Region

2019-09-30T14:00:41+10:00

Higgins Storm Chasing produces in-house high resolution, high accuracy Tropical Low / Tropical Cyclone forecast track and threat maps for all of Australia. Click here for more details… 

Key Points

• A forecast total of 10 cyclones in the Australian region which is near average. 5 of these cyclones being severe category 3 or higher. 5 systems potentially crossing the Australian coastline. 

• Eastern region: Queensland, Coral Sea and Gulf of Carpentaria. A total of 4 cyclones with 2 possibly severe (category 3 or higher). 2 of these systems potentially crossing the Queensland coast.

• Northern region: Northern Territory, Western Gulf of Carpentaria and Arafura Sea. A total of 2 cyclones with 1 possibly severe (category 3 or higher). 1 system potentially crossing the NT or Western Gulf coast.

• Western region: Western Australia, Timor Sea, Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and Indian Ocean. A total of 4 cyclones with 2 possibly severe (category 3 or higher). 2 of these systems potentially crossing the coast. 

• Tropical Lows: Up to 15 tropical lows are also forecast to develop across the Australian region with many of them impacting the mainland. Tropical lows are one of Northern Australia’s biggest rainfall producers during the wet season. Occasionally they also end up tracking further South into Central and Southern Australian regions. They bring widespread heavy rain, flooding and sometimes damaging winds. Its not uncommon for tropical lows to bring rainfall totals of 250-500mm even 1000mm+ just from one system given their slow moving nature and very high moisture levels. 

Forecast Notes
 The current ENSO climate driver in the Central Pacific Ocean is neutral (neither warmer or cooler than average sea surface temperatures).  Sea surface temperatures across the Western Pacific near the equator and also through the South West Pacific Islands is above average and forecast to continue to remain above average during this cyclone season. The Coral Sea waters are near average and forecast to stay near average this season. Given this scenario there is a higher potential for cyclones to develop in the far Northern and Eastern Coral Sea with increased chances of them being severe. Cyclones in these areas often track West to South West towards Queensland.

• The Northern Australian sea surface temperatures in the Gulf , between our mainland PNG and Indonesia are currently near average. These waters are forecast to climb to above average from January-April. Given this scenario there is a higher potential for cyclones to develop across Northern Australia in the new year. 

• A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole is current and expected to last until January.  This climate driver is currently Australia’s most primary dominant feature. It often brings below average rainfall and above average temperatures to much of Australia. Given this scenario a later than usual wet season start is expected with a delay of northern monsoon trough. The MJO eastward propagation also could be blocked while very limited cyclone development is expected across the Western region during October, November and December. Given the expected breakdown of the positive IOD in January a late season burst of cyclones is increasingly possible for the Western region.

• The Sudden Stratospheric Warming event over the South Pole has occurred and is now cooling quickly again. We do not believe it will have any impact at all on Australia’s climate during the next 6 months.

***Please keep in mind that it only takes 1 severe cyclone to cross the coast causing significant widespread damage! The biggest threats are very heavy rain causing major flooding, sea surge causing coastal inundation and destructive winds causing property and infrastructure damage. All of these weather threats are potentially life threatening! We will provide a high number of cyclone forecasts and updates if required this season. Given the current severe drought across many areas of Australia we need Ex Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Lows to track inland bringing widespread rainfall.*** Forecast map and text strictly not for news media use without express permission ***

Higgins Storm Chasing produces in-house high resolution, high accuracy Tropical Low / Tropical Cyclone forecast track and threat maps for all of Australia. Click here for more details or on the image below… 

2019-20 Tropical Cyclone Outlook Australian Region2019-09-30T14:00:41+10:00
23 09, 2019

NEW weather forecasts & maps for severely drought affected NENSW

2019-09-23T18:38:10+10:00

Issued 23rd September 2019. At Higgins Storm Chasing we have made a conscious decision to produce new in-house forecasts for the severely drought affected North East quarter of NSW. The new zoomed forecast covers an area from Newcastle north to Tweed Heads, west to Dubbo, Coonamble and Walgett including all “grey area” locations along the QLD & NSW border.
Above image: NENSW 24hr daily rainfall forecast map sample (low resolution). The new high resolution forecasts and maps have been activated as of today! 

There are 70 individual locations listed on our maps with 17 selected to include minimum and maximum temperature forecasts.

These new 24 hour rainfall, thunderstorm risk and snowfall maps will provide full daily forecasts up to 5 days ahead, a week ahead rainfall forecast total and month ahead rainfall total outlook. They will compliment our existing NSW, ACT and Victoria state forecasts and maps which also include a 3 month rainfall and temperature outlooks. Our 4 tier thunderstorm risk maps will provide an early warning preparation for severe and dangerous storm activity.

We believe our new product guidance will assist many farmers and graziers in these areas to make decisions while also providing everyone in the general public some hope in the search for any future rainfall.  
The water storage dams, rivers, creeks, potable water supply and the stock feed situation is at critical levels across this part of NSW. With storm season now just weeks away, we will provide accurate forecasts and up to date live information across the region while taking into extra consideration that “Every drop counts”.

The new forecasts will increase our work load by around an hour a day however there will be NO yearly subscription price increase to our existing or new premium members.

Existing members please login here and go to the NSW drop down forecast where you will find “NENSW forecast”. If you would like to gain access to our forecast and maps that cover QLD, SEQLD zoomed, NSW, ACT, Victoria and NENSW zoomed, Australia wide weekly rain and cyclones – please click here or on the image below to subscribe or for more information. 

NEW weather forecasts & maps for severely drought affected NENSW2019-09-23T18:38:10+10:00