Forecast

/Forecast
21 08, 2019

Dangerous Surf Conditions Forecast To Impact NSW

2019-08-21T16:48:06+10:00

A very large and powerful surf is expected to develop along the NSW Coast during Thursday leading to some beach erosion and dangerous beach conditions! Above image via Windy showing wave heights during the afternoon (red 4m+, pink 5m+, orange 6m+ white 8m+).

 

A very large and powerful surf is expected to develop along the Southern NSW Coast during the morning. Wave heights are expected to increase during the late morning and into the early afternoon across the Central Coast between Newcastle and Wollongong before increasing further across the Northern Coastal areas between Newcastle and the QLD Border during the evening and early night. Wave heights are expected to exceed 5m in many locations and potentially peak at around 7-8m for some areas, not including any rogue waves which could exceed 10m. These kinds of waves, whilst not overly rare for the NSW Coast during Winter.. are certainly dangerous though and this could lead to not only severe beach erosion for some areas that are exposed to the waves, but also become treacherous for anyone venturing into the water.

Wind Gusts during Thursday afternoon via Windy

 

 

The reason why these waves are expected to develop is due to a strong low pressure system (979hpa) over near New Zealand interacting with a high pressure system (1028hpa) over Eastern Australia. The tight pressure gradient over the Tasman Sea is expected to coincide with strong to damaging South to South West winds impacting Coastal areas of NSW behind a cool change. As the change moves North during the day, the winds will continue to increase through any areas it moves through. This combination of pressure gradient and strong to damaging winds will be enough to produce dangerous sea conditions in the form of damaging gales (120-140km/h offshore, 70-100km/h over the exposed Coast) and powerful waves (5-7/8m, rogue waves up to 10m).

NSW Pressure Map and wave map showing powerful waves developing between a tightened pressure gradient between NZ and Eastern AUS. Image via Windy

 

Dangerous Surf Conditions Forecast To Impact NSW2019-08-21T16:48:06+10:00
19 08, 2019

Heavy Rain and Snow to Slam Tasmania!

2019-08-19T02:11:28+10:00

Tasmania is potentially seeing some of its best rainfall of Winter across the next few days with falls of 100-200mm being forecast across most models, and heavy snow being possible over the Central Highlands! Above image – 3-4 day rainfall accumulations (Euro model) via weather.us

 

A deep onshore West to South West flow is forecast to dominate Tasmania during the first half of the week (being Monday to Thursday). This onshore flow is expected to combine with some upper level support to generate widespread showers and rain areas across the Western half of the State as well as further scattered showers and sporadic rain periods over the Eastern half of the State. These rain periods are expected to remain constant and accumulate over the course of several days.

Forecast rainfall via OCF for Monday alone showing global model average of 50mm+ (conservative) across Western TAS. Image via BSCH.

 

 

Monday is looking the best for rainfall with models focused on 50-100mm being widespread across the Western half of the State and isolated higher falls of 100mm+ being possible. Tuesday is looking at widespread falls of 25-50mm with isolated to scattered falls in the 75mm+ range. Wednesday should see lighter falls again, but by this stage grand totals of 100-200mm are likely to have fallen across the majority of the Western half of TAS and lighter falls of 25-50mm across the Eastern half. These kids of falls, especially across Western TAS will have the ability to produce minor to moderate river and creek flooding along with areas of flash flooding given short term heavy falls are possible as well. 

Across the Central Highlands, these rain periods are expected to mostly fall as snow and this is expected to produce 3-4 day totals of 50-80cm across the region. Snow levels should stay elevated as the upper level trough remains fairly stock standard for this time of year, but the consistency will allow for snow to be generated over an extensive period time, featuring bursts of heavier snow or even blizzard conditions when combine with strong winds of 70km/h+. 

 

While this weather pattern isn’t uncommon for this time of year, Eastern parts of TAS havent really seen any truly beneficial rain this Winter and this is certainly shaping up to be some of the heavier falls for both snow and rain across the Western and Central districts for Winter so far.

Forecast snowfall totals across TAS via Windy.

 

Heavy Rain and Snow to Slam Tasmania!2019-08-19T02:11:28+10:00
14 08, 2019

Another snow producing Polar airmass for SE Aust

2019-08-14T10:44:05+10:00


Issued 14th August 2019. After a huge polar low delivered massive amounts of snow over the weekend, negative SAM (Southern Annular Mode) is going to hang in there for another round later this week into next week. A low pressure system south of Tasmania will push a polar airmass northwards over Victoria, the ACT Southern and Central NSW this Sunday & Monday. Above image via Pivotal Weather showing the very cold air.

VICTORIA: A cold front will sweep East across Victoria with a band of showers on Sunday. Northerly winds could reach 90km hr across Alpine areas and some data suggests Thunder snow is possible on Sunday night with blizzards conditions. 20-30cms of fresh snow is forecast in the 24hrs from Sunday to Monday across the Alps. Snow levels are also forecast to drop to 700 meters across the state so some snow flurries will be possible at Ballarat and Trentham. 

ACT: Showers are forecast to develop on Sunday afternoon and continue overnight possibly into Monday. Showers will falls as snow on the ranges with 10-20cms expected on the peaks. Some brief snow flurries will be possible in Canberra early Monday morning. 

NSW: The cold front moves East across the interior on Sunday with strong cold Westerly winds developing through the Western half of the state. A band of showers and isolated storms are forecast across Southern areas which will eventually reach the Central Tablelands Sunday night. The coldest airmass arrives late Sunday night and hangs around until Midday Monday so snow will be possible on the CTs during this time. AT this stage the snow producing cold air and precipitation does NOT reach the Northern Tablelands. 

For SA the front moves through on Sunday with showers and isolated storms across the South East. In Tasmania the front moves through on Sunday and Monday with showers across the state and snow to low levels on Monday. Below image snow accumulation forecast totals via Windy.com

We produce accurate daily snow forecasts and maps across Victoria, the ACT and NSW with amounts, times and locations listed. Click here to subscribe to our membership or on the image below for more information! 

Another snow producing Polar airmass for SE Aust2019-08-14T10:44:05+10:00
9 08, 2019

Frozen Temperatures Hitting NSW, VIC & ACT HARD!

2019-08-09T00:42:51+10:00

Winter is about to turn itself up a notch over NSW, VIC and the ACT with frigid temperatures – even for Winter standards! Above image – Temperature anomaly for Sunday showing temperatures WAYYYYY below average (dark blue 5 to 10ºc below average, purple is 10ºc+ below average) – Image via Tropicaltidbits.

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Its been cool and cold in some areas up until now with the start of the event, but across Friday, the weekend and into early next week – temperatures are about to plummet in a big way with most areas seeing their coldest temperatures of Winter so far. This is all being brought on by the combination of a very cold, polar airmass moving directly over the region, showers / rain periods and snow and strong to damaging gales that will likely remain constant across the entire outlook period of Friday to early Monday. 

Strong (pink colouring) and damaging (blue colouring) winds impacting the entirety of VIC, NSW, ACT across the weekend. Image via Windy.

 

 

The coldest temperatures of course will be across the Snowy Mountains. Thredbo is going for a maximum of -5ºc (yes minus) across Friday and Saturday with Sunday being fractionally warmer at -3ºc. Minimums for the area will be around -7ºc and the wind chill could be closer to -20ºc! Mount Hotham in VIC is also looking at minimum of -7 or -8ºc with maximums of -4ºc. 

Further North, Canberra is expected to only reach 8ºc across Friday, Saturday and 10ºc Sunday – even these temperatures may be a struggle to reach if precipitation remains constant. Overnight minimums of 1ºc or less will mean that snow is possible each night as long as there is precip. Melbourne is expected to struggle to double digits across the 3 main days as well. Ballarat may only get to around 6 or 7ºc as well on Friday and Saturday. 

 

Further North again, the Central Tablelands will mimic what the normal Snowy Mountains are like. Oberon is going for just 2ºc as a max on Saturday and 3ºc on Sunday – roughly 8-9ºc below average. Bathurst will struggle to 6ºc. Orange is only expecting to reach 3ºc on Saturday and Sunday (8ºc below average). On Sunday, Guyra is heading for just 4ºc as a max, Glen Innes and Armidale a freezing 6ºc – this is around 8-9ºc below average. Even across the Central Coast – Sydney and Newcastle are only heading for the mid-teens which is below average for Winter standards. 

Widespread strong to damaging winds of 70-100km/h will make conditions feel even colder with many areas looking at sub-zero degree feels like temperatures.

Forecast maximums for Sunday (coldest day) across the region. Image via OCF / BSCH

 

Frozen Temperatures Hitting NSW, VIC & ACT HARD!2019-08-09T00:42:51+10:00
9 08, 2019

Cold Blast Coming For QLD!

2019-08-09T00:47:55+10:00

After Spring or even Summer-like temperatures on Thursday across large parts of the State, the majority of QLD is expected to see a cold blast now which will send temperatures the other way and more like August or even colder than average for some areas in August. Above image showing the temperature anomaly (difference compared to normal) for Sunday with the majority of the State below to well below average (blue to dark blue colouring) – Image via Tropicaltidbits.

 

CLICK HERE TO BECOME A HIGGINS STORM CHASING SUBSCRIBER! 

The combination of a cold air mass aloft and strong South to South Westerly winds surging across the State will allow for temperatures to drop on Friday and across the weekend. During Friday, the cooling will be mostly limited to the Southern half of the State with areas like Boulia, Longreach and Emerald sitting near average and areas North of those towns being much warmer. Areas of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt are likely to remain below 20ºc.

 

South to South Westerly winds are likely to dominate the State and let the temperature plummet. Image via Windy for Saturday afternoon wind gusts.

 

 

During Saturday and Sunday, the winds will continue to pump across the State. This will allow for further cooling with the Granite Belt maybe not even reaching the teens (along with the potential for some snow at times). Southern parts of the State are likely to remain in the mid teens as well. While Northern districts will remain warm, they are expected to drop significantly compared to previous days and further cooling is likely in the coming days. Places like Townsville (25ºc), Cairns (25ºc) are expected to be near average or even 1-2ºc below average. Areas across Northern Inland QLD where averages are typically much higher, may feel the difference more with Richmond looking at 6ºc below average (22-23ºc forecast) and Mt Isa at 21ºc will be around 6-7ºc below average as well. 

 

Forecast maximums across the State for Sunday showing much cooler temperatures. Image via OCF / BSCH

 

 

Forecast maximums across the State for Friday showing cooler temperatures in the South and warm temperatures in the North. Image via OCF / BSCH

 

On top of the much cooler temperatures, the winds will be fiercely cold for QLD standards. Across the Darling Downs and Granite Belt it’ll feel more like 0ºc or even below freezing at times thanks to 50-70km/h winds combining with low temperatures. Across other areas of QLD, a 4-6ºc wind chill factor is likely and stronger wind chill factors are possible – so along the South East QLD Coast when its sitting on about 20ºc, it could feel more like 12-14ºc, maybe even less. 

Overnight minimums will also plummet across large parts of the State. While the winds will probably prevent frost from occurring, widespread areas could be in the low single digits or negatives during Sunday and Monday morning – Monday has a strong chance of some frost across Southern & Central QLD, maybe even into Northern Inland QLD, pending the wind strength. 

 

Forecast minimums for Monday morning across QLD showing widespread temperatures nearing 0ºc! Image via OCF / BSCH

 

Cold Blast Coming For QLD!2019-08-09T00:47:55+10:00
8 08, 2019

Snow possible in Canberra – likely on the hills

2019-08-08T09:58:31+10:00


Issued 8th August 2019. Snow often falls on the ACT ranges during strong cold fronts but it always struggles to reach Canberra city due to the lower elevation. The polar airmass coming this weekend is a ripper and computer models are suggesting anywhere from 2 to 7cms of snow to fall in Canberra and the surrounding suburbs. Above image GFS snow accumulation forecast via Windy.com

On Saturday a -40C cold pool of air at 20,000ft moves over the ACT which also hangs around into Sunday. This significantly lowers the freezing levels down to 800 meters ASL. This snow level height brings most of the Canberra Hills into likely contention. The key for Canberra to get snow is the surface temperature minimums… On Friday night into Saturday morning and Saturday night into Sunday morning its expected to drop to -2C. Then all you need is precipitation during these times to produce snow to lower levels of say 500 meters. The ranges do act as a rain / snow shadow so it will be very interesting to see if and how much snow makes it into the city and the surrounding suburbs. The potential is very high and models suggest it will happen. Below image showing the very cold polar airmass on Saturday via GFS/BSCH


We provide detailed rain, snow and storm forecasts and maps to the ACT on our members website. Subscribe HERE or click on the image below for more information. 

Snow possible in Canberra – likely on the hills2019-08-08T09:58:31+10:00
8 08, 2019

Multiple States Likely To Be Impacted By Dust

2019-08-08T02:48:31+10:00

Widespread raised dust, haze and possible dust storms are expected to impact large parts of NSW, Northern VIC, South Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland – possibly reaching the East Coast over the next several days. Above image – Dust mass via Windy for Friday.

 

Expansive strong winds are expected to sweep through South Australia and into New South Wales during Thursday, possibly even into South West QLD as well. These winds may reach damaging thresholds at times over elevated parts of SA, with most areas likely to see gusts of 40-60km/h being possible. These winds are expected to continue through QLD on Friday and further East into NSW as well. whilst the NT will receive the Southerly surge which will push them through Southern & Central districts. The combination of several drought stricken areas, along with strong winds, will likely cause dust to become raised and maybe even develop into some localised dust storms. While dust storms such as the ones seen over Summer probably aren’t expected (in terms of a graphic view), there is a very realistic chance that large expansive areas will be covered in haze for not just one, but possibly a few days as several rounds of winds lifting dust occur across Thursday, Friday, Saturday and maybe even Sunday. 

 

As stated, there is a chance that this haze could reach the Coast in a very weak raised dust manner. The only prevention of this is whether or not the dust becomes settled in amongst showers and snow across the NSW Ranges and QLD Ranges. Areas North of about Toowoomba in QLD where there is no rainfall forecast are the highest chance of seeing the dust reach the Coast on Friday and Saturday, but areas further South of Toowoomba have a big question mark over them for now. 

Winds across Friday via Windy. Pink >60km/h, blue / purple >90km/h (damaging thresholds).

 

Multiple States Likely To Be Impacted By Dust2019-08-08T02:48:31+10:00
7 08, 2019

SNOW for Northern NSW and a good chance in QLD this weekend!

2019-08-16T13:39:05+10:00


Issued 7th August 2019. A perfect forecast opportunity exists to experience SNOW on the Northern Tablelands of NSW this weekend with snow also possible in QLD on the Granite Belt! Above image: Torah Higgins enjoying the snow at Ben Lomond Northern NSW in early June this year. HSC Thomas will be chasing and reporting this snow event in Northern NSW. 

Forecast data is confidently predicting snow falls to occur on the Northern Tablelands of NSW late this Saturday into Sunday night. The places most likely to receive the best settled snow is at Guyra and Ben Lomond with between 5 and 10cms expected. Further South at Walcha and Hanging Rock near Tamworth they are forecast to get 10-15cms. Snow is also likely at Nundle, Uralla, Armidale, Glen Innes and Deepwater in NSW. Snow is also a good chance but may not settle on the ground at Tenterfield (Mt Mackenzie), Wallangarra, Ballendean, Stanthorpe, Applethorpe and Eukey in QLD. Below image snow forecast via Windy.com


With all these regions suffering from extreme drought and hardship the tourism is most welcome! Its not very far to drive to experience a white wonderland with the family from anywhere in South East Queensland. Accommodation will be in high demand at Guyra but places like Glen Innes and Tenterfield offer many options which are just a short drive away from the best snow. You can also try Dunmore Trout Waters not far from Ben Lomond. Please PRESERVE ALL WATER USAGE take bottled water or buy it locally. Below image is the best travel option to Ben Lomond NSW for the best snow opportunity. 

The current snow window of opportunity is very specific… Saturday late afternoon until Sunday night in NSW and Saturday night or Sunday early morning on the Granite Belt. Below image the chances of precipitation from Saturday 9am to Sunday 9am via OCF/BSCH

We have detailed HSC snow forecast maps and times for QLD and NSW available on our website. Subscribe for the latest up to date information here or click on the image below for more information! 

SNOW for Northern NSW and a good chance in QLD this weekend!2019-08-16T13:39:05+10:00
7 08, 2019

Snow To Low Levels In Tasmania!

2019-08-07T15:38:26+10:00

Issued August 7th, 2019. A complex weather pattern between Thursday and Sunday is expected to deliver rain, storms, hail, damaging winds and snow to Tasmania with the majority, if not all, of the State experiencing some form of severe weather at some stage. Above image: Snow forecast via Windy.

 

 

Rain, Storms, Hail: Activity is expected to begin on Thursday as a large cold front linked to a strong low in the Bight moves across the State and combines with a small scale low pressure system to the North East of the State. This combination will combine with colder air aloft, whilst pumping increased moisture over the entire State. This is likely to result in some isolated storms moving across the State with hail and wind being the main threat, along with expansive areas of rain. This rain will be on and off from Thursday afternoon through to Friday afternoon. During Friday, a strong low pressure region is likely to intensify over the Tasman Sea, East of Tasmania. This will draw in a significant amount of moisture and combine that with freezing air aloft to produce further hail showers and continuous rain areas from late Friday through to early Sunday when activity becomes more scattered as the system moves away. The heaviest rain is expected to be over the South and East of the State where falls of 50-75mm are likely and localised higher falls are possible (orange shaded areas) and this includes Hobart. Moderate falls of 25mm+ are expected over Central districts and in a unique setup compared to normal, only light falls are expected over West and Northern areas. 

 

Forecast Rainfall for TAS via Windy – 50mm+ in orange.

 

 

Snow: As with all winter systems across Tasmania, snow is expected. Initially, on Thursday, snow is expected to around 700-800m across the Central Highlands and probably Mt Wellington. During Friday and Saturday as the colder air arrives – the snow level is expected to drop to a solid 400-500m with snow being possible down to 250-300m with any colder air that gets dragged down through downbursts. This level should then rise on Sunday to around 800m or higher again with the colder air moving away and moisture levels starting to fade. During the peak snow potential (Friday afternoon / night into Saturday morning), heavy snow is possible around the Mt Wellington Mountain area. Good snowfall is expected over the Central Highlands. Snow is even likely in the Hobart Hills which will include towns such as Collinsville, Glenlusk, Grove, Glenorchy, the Lenah Valley, Tolmans Hill, Mount Nelson, Ridgeway, New Town, West Moonah. On the other side of the river, places like Brighton, Honeywood, Richmond, Campania will also be seeing potential. Sleet is also expected in isolated bursts throughout Hobart City. This means that if you are in Hobart, there is the potential for snow to be falling on the ground less than 30mins away. 

Where to go: From Hobart City to Lenah Valley its 14mins. From Hobart City to Collinsvale its 28mins – which takes you through Glenlusk. This is a very scenic and safe drive if you take your time. The highway has plenty of pull over areas and large fields that are likely to have snow settling on them given these areas are around 600-800m. This will let the kids be able to play and for the adults to take in some of the scenery. 

 

View at Collinsville of the Snow back in 2016 as an indication of the open scenes. Image by HSC Admin Thomas.

 

 

Wind: Winds should be “okay” on Thursday as the front pushes through. During Friday, a South Westerly breeze is expected to increase to around 30-60km/h (nothing too dramatic) over much of the State and then  even more over the elevated terrain. As the low increases on Saturday, winds are expected to veer around to the South and increase to around 80-100km/h, possibly even seeing peak gusts of over 110km/h across Mt Wellington. The strongest winds will be over the Central Highlands from the West and the South East Coast from the South. Strong winds of 60-70km/h+ are likely during Sunday and into Monday. This will help make the temperature feel more like in the negatives across most of the State during the weekend as temperatures remain in the single digits. 

 

Forecast wind gusts for Saturday morning via Windy showing damaging gusts in blue / aqua, strong winds in pink.

 

Snow To Low Levels In Tasmania!2019-08-07T15:38:26+10:00
7 08, 2019

3 days of wild weather for SA with snow possible!

2019-08-07T10:43:23+10:00

Issued 7th August 2019. The weather is about to turn pretty wild and nasty across large parts of South Australia including Adelaide. A weak low is bringing some rain today but tomorrow a powerful cold front will open the proceedings for 3 days worth of severe weather. An incredibly cold polar airmass will arrive on Friday with snow being possible across the ranges in the South East. Above image showing the mid level polar airmass via GFS/BSCH

Rain, Storms, Hail & possible Snow: The best falls are expected across the Mt Lofty ranges due to orographic lifting with locally moderate to heavy falls possible and totals near 50mm likely. The Southern agricultural areas, Lower west coast, Central coast and South east coasts are forecast to receive 15-30mm from the system. Lighter falls of 5-15mm are forecast through the Northern agricultural areas. Showers with hail are likely across the South East of the state. Storms with hail are possible across the South East of the state.

The snow level is currently forecast at 900 meters which is just above most ranges in the South East… however when showers with hail occur they drag down the much colder air from aloft effectively lowering the snow level. Given this scenario the coldest airmass is forecast to arrive late Friday and last into Saturday. The highest chances for snow will be during this time along the highest ranges in the South East (Mt lofty). Showers will start off producing small hail at first then snow is possible for brief periods as the cold air comes down. Its definitely something worth keeping an eye on that the kids would love to experience. Below image rainfall forecast totals via windy.com

Wind: Damaging Westerly winds up to 110kmhr are forecast across the South East quarter of the state with the arrival of the cold front on Thursday afternoon. The initial front could produce raised dust across the state and a dust storm through the Murraylands, Riverland and North East districts. Winds will ease slightly on Friday but remain very strong and gusty during Friday and Saturday. 
Temperatures: COLD with a bitter wind chill of up to 10C so most places will have feels like temps in the single digits. Below image damaging winds on Thursday via Windy.com

3 days of wild weather for SA with snow possible!2019-08-07T10:43:23+10:00