Forecast

/Forecast
28 03, 2020

Tornado Outbreak possible across Illinois on Saturday

2020-03-28T13:14:52+10:00

Its only early in the season (technically still pre-season), but the United States is expected to see one of the stronger storm days of the season evolve during Saturday with a tornado outbreak possible across Illinois and immediate surrounding States. Above image showing the Storm Prediction Centre Categorial Risk (which may be upgraded further). 

 

A deep low pressure system is expected to move through the Midwest (Nebraska, Kansas and into Missouri and Iowa) during Saturday with a cold front attached to it. This cold front is expected to draw in excessive amounts of moisture into a triple point wind convergence and warm sector that will create an extremely favourable environment for severe storms and supercells to develop in a line across Eastern Iowa and Eastern Missouri before maturing and spreading throughout Illinois and into Western Kentucky and Indiana as well as the Great Lakes region.

The focus of this threat will be surrounding the potential for a tornado outbreak across Illinois, which will include Chicago City and the immediate surrounding areas – an extremely densely populated region of not just Illinois, but America as a whole. The main tornado threat will be in a narrow window stretching from mid afternoon to around sunset, with storms weakening post-sunset as daytime heating eases and the cold front shifts too far away from the low pressure system. The parameters involved in this setup are off the charts for not just tornadoes, but long tracked and strong tornadoes. Supercells will also yield a giant hail threat as well as damaging to locally destructive straight line winds. There are very high expectations that the Storm Prediction Centre based on the available data will upgrade to a ‘HIGH’ risk with an expansive ‘MODERATE’ risk area. 

Helicity swaths showing areas of rotation in thunderstorms (supercells) moving across Illinois on Saturday. The stronger the helicity swath (the orange, red, purple and blue colours) – the stronger the rotation, and the more potential there is of tornadoes with those cells. Image via HRRR model / COD Weather.

 

This setup is scarily similar to the November 17, 2013 tornado outbreak across the same region which produced 73 confirmed tornadoes across a 10 hour period. The way that day evolved is synoptically almost identical to this setup we are forecasting at the moment. The hope is that morning convection (rain, storms and cloud cover) could hinder daytime heating and lower the overall thunderstorm threat. 

Data from the November 17, 2013 outbreak which is eerily similar to this setup. Image via the Storm Prediction Centre archives.

 

Tornado Outbreak possible across Illinois on Saturday2020-03-28T13:14:52+10:00
7 02, 2020

EXTREME RAINFALL TO POSE MAJOR FLOOD THREAT ACROSS EASTERN NSW

2020-02-07T11:32:17+10:00

** EXTREME RAINFALL TO POSE MAJOR FLOOD THREAT ACROSS EASTERN NSW **

Eastern NSW, in particular Central Eastern NSW (from about Gosford to Nowra) is looking at some very heavy to extreme rainfall accumulations over the next several days. The combination of a Black Nor’Easter and convergence zone will lead to excessive rainfall occurring over the same areas, leading to major flooding becoming a risk.

 

 

Widespread falls across Eastern NSW including fire zones in the South East are likely to be in the 100-200mm range. Very heavy falls on top of what has already fallen of 200-300mm are likely over the Mid North Coast & Hunter. The heaviest rain in the vicinity of 200-400mm likely and potential falls of up to 500-600mm is expected from Sydney / Gosford down to Nowra. This may include back to back days of 200mm+ over the weekend for the Illawarra.

 

This kind of rainfall has the potential to produce MAJOR flooding across a very populated area. Flash flooding is inevitable with this kind of rainfall however widespread minor to moderate creek and river flooding and some MAJOR river and creek flooding is also LIKELY depending on where the highest falls occur.

It is also worth noting that landslides are likely over Southern NSW and potentially over the Blue Mountains with heavy rainfall likely impacting fire zones and the unsettled & fragile ground giving way.

 

 

There is also the potential for some waterspouts along the NSW Coast from the Hunter to the Illawarra along the convergence zone where winds will be turning with height. This isn’t a big threat, but its one worth noting.

Image: 4 day rainfall accumulation via www.weatherwatch.net.au Without our premium members support we wouldn’t exist to provide the huge amount of live updates, forecasts, warnings and information that we do. Sign up today > https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/

EXTREME RAINFALL TO POSE MAJOR FLOOD THREAT ACROSS EASTERN NSW2020-02-07T11:32:17+10:00
4 02, 2020

EXTREME Rain and Flood potential SEQLD & NENSW

2020-02-04T11:18:29+10:00


Issued 4th Feb 2020 ***EXTREME RAINFALL & VERY DANGEROUS FLOOD “POTENTIAL” SEQLD COAST & NORTHERN RIVERS NSW***
Hi guys, please take this forecast and information VERY seriously…
High Risk Forecast Period: Midnight tonight to midnight Thursday.
Areas At High Risk: MOST of the South East Coast QLD – Sunshine Coast + Hinterland, Brisbane & Ipswich + Somerset + Brisbane Valley + Lockyer Valley (possibly), Gold Coast & Tweed Coast + Hinterland + Scenic Rim, ALL of Northern Rivers NSW. Not everywhere WILL get hit by extreme rain and flooding but all the above areas are at RISK. Yellow circled areas.
Potential Rainfall Totals: Up to 500mm for some locations but not all. 250mm+ could fall in 3 hour periods over some locations but not all. Please do not solely rely on the rainfall map posted, it is showing the potential totals which could occur anywhere in the yellow circled area.
There is a chance that this extremely heavy rainfall will remain just along the coastal fringe, however the risk is high enough to include inland areas as well.
We want you to conduct preparations NOW and have a PLAN in place just in case it happens and its you that gets hit. Serious flash flooding under extreme rainfall areas will cut main roads and flood some yards, streets, businesses and houses ect.
DRIVE SLOWLY IN RAIN & DON’T DRIVE INTO FLOOD WATERS – you could die in minutes just like what happened in Caboolture in May 2015.
Above image via Windy.com We have upgraded our HSC SEQLD in-house rainfall maps for premium members. Please login to our website and check. If you’re not a member you can subscribe here >
https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/

EXTREME Rain and Flood potential SEQLD & NENSW2020-02-04T11:18:29+10:00
3 02, 2020

WA Tropical Update HSC Cyclone WATCH

2020-02-03T12:22:09+10:00


Issued 3rd February 2020. WA TROPICAL UPDATE “HSC TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH ISSUED FOR WA”: A tropical low is currently located along the NT / WA border. It is forecast by global data to confidently to track west and enter the Indian Ocean just North of Broome by late on Wednesday. Due to the system then being located over water in a much more favourable environment, there is a HIGH RISK it will intensify further into a tropical cyclone. During Thursday and Friday the system is also confidently forecast to track in a general Southerly direction towards the WA coast. Intensity, exact late track along with a coastal crossing location if at all remains very uncertain at this time. Detailed HSC in-house tropical low & tropical cyclone forecasts and track maps will be issued for this system on our website here >
https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/

WA Tropical Update HSC Cyclone WATCH2020-02-03T12:22:09+10:00
3 02, 2020

QLD Tropical Update

2020-02-03T11:59:42+10:00


Issued 3rd February 2020. QLD TROPICAL UPDATE: Over the past several days we have seen numerous global model data sets suggesting that a cyclone could develop in the Gulf of Carpentaria and Coral Sea. Some of them also have direct impacts on QLD & Northern NSW however at this stage there is NO forecast confidence being maintained. There is however a HIGH RISK of tropical development during February so we are very closely monitoring global forecast data and live observations. Detailed HSC in-house tropical low & tropical cyclone forecasts and track maps will be issued when required on our website here >
https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/

QLD Tropical Update2020-02-03T11:59:42+10:00
8 01, 2020

Where is the rain Australia?

2020-01-08T11:18:57+10:00


Issued 7th January 2020. We are fielding an increased volume of questions ATM and rightly so. We are also starting to see some big shifts forecast in the weather patterns! I’ll make it as short n sweet as possible…. Above image next 5 day rainfall forecast from 7th-12th of January 2020 via Windy.com 
The most important changes that have finally occurred are in the key major climate drivers that influence our rainfall and temperatures.
1: The Indian Ocean Dipole (sea temperatures) have finally come back to normal values. Why is this so important??? Because for the past 6 months it has contributed to a lack of rainfall across large parts of Australia and also a 2 month delay in the monsoon trough developing. Now it’s normal the monsoon trough is developing and more moisture will feed across Australia from the North West.
2: The Southern Annual Mode has finally come back to near normal values (this determines the position of lows and highs across Australia). Why is this so important? Because from October to late December it was deeply negative which pushed low pressure systems much higher up across Southern Australia. Yes it provided cooler temps and some increased rainfall across Tasmania and Victoria BUT it also destroyed moisture across NSW, ACT & QLD due to very hot dry westerly winds. It WAS a major influence on the bushfires across VIC & NSW generating the very hot dry conditions with periods of very strong winds. Now it’s normal more high pressure systems can develop in the Tasman Sea / Southern Coral Sea and feed moisture in from the easterly winds into surface troughs over NSW, ACT & QLD.
3: The ENSO (El Niño / La Niña) is neutral and has been for for many months and is forecast to stay that way through 2020.
4: The monsoon trough is 2 months late across Northern Australia but it’s finally developing now across Indonesia and PNG. It is likely to also keep developing across Northern WA and Northern NT in the next week. There are signals indicating it will develop also across Northern QLD during the second half of January.
5: The MJO ( Madden / Julian Oscillation) is a tropical pulse that moves west to east along the equator and nearby tropics on about a 30-40 day cycle. It greatly increases the monsoon trough and tropical activity such as lows and cyclones. The MJO is currently located over the Maritime Contentment and is forecast to strengthen significantly 7 days and move slowly East. It will greatly influence tropical development across Northern WA and Northern NT during this time. In the 7-14day outlook it does make it into the Western Pacific which increases tropical development chances across Northern QLD the Gulf and Coral Sea. But models do suggest it will weaken a bit when it does.
So let’s have a look at the next 5 day forecast with a quick look into the 5-10 day forecast range.

The current position of the monsoon trough is circled in yellow. It’s still just north of Australia but with the aid of the MJO has and will continue to develop tropical lows and possible cyclones across WA & NT. White circled area is EX TC Blake tracking South across inland WA bringing good rain and storms. Green is the current tropical low which could become a cyclone in the next few days. It’s forecast to track West / South West and produce rain and storms Northern NT and Northern WA. The blue circled area is a cold front which should bring light falls across Southern SA, VIC and TAS.
The black circle is a trough producing showers and storms through SEQLD & Eastern NSW. The Brown arrows are an onshore wind flow causing showers and storms across Northern QLD from about Mackay to Mt Isa North. Ok that’s the next 5 days.
Here is the 5-10 outlook: There are very good signs in Model data that scattered showers and storms will increase across most of NSW and QLD due to a surface trough. Showers and storms will continue across Northern QLD, Northern NT and WA thanks to the MJO and developing Monsoon Trough.
So as you can see now that the major climate drivers are all back to normal and the weather patterns are starting to slowly respond with increased tropical activity, showers and storms.
Tropical lows and cyclones have a significantly higher risk of developing from now until the end of April. It will probably take one or two to cross the coast and track inland then South to start to break the drought properly – hopefully just not a repeat of the NQLD floods like last year if they do.
As always we have our very own in-house detailed forecasts and maps available to subscribers on our website. They cover the entire Australian region for tropical lows and cyclones. Daily, weekly, monthly and 3 monthly rain, storm and temperature forecasts and maps across QLD, NSW, ACT & VIC. Weekly rainfall and forecasts for TAS, SA, WA & NT.
Check it out here by clicking here! 

Where is the rain Australia?2020-01-08T11:18:57+10:00
21 12, 2019

Christmas Rain And SEVERE Storms Across SEQLD & NENSW

2019-12-21T17:41:46+10:00


Issued 21st December 2019. All that many people would love for Christmas this year is some rain! Well well well, for the South East quarter of Queensland and North East quarter of New South Wales that is exactly what is forecast! There is one down side to the forecast and that is SEVERE storms and some DANGEROUS storms are also very likely to occur. Above image is the next 5 day rainfall via Windy.com with storm forecast areas highlighted. Monday = Yellow, Tuesday = Red, Wednesday / Christmas Day = Pink.

Highly detailed and accurate Higgins Storm Chasing Thunderstorm risk maps, Rainfall maps and Temperature forecasts are available here for SEQLD & NENSW! 

Lets have a quick look at each day as it stands now on the forecast data!
SUNDAY a few showers & storms are possible across the NENSW ranges.
MONDAY scattered showers and storms are likely during the afternoon across NENSW. Some of these storms may also come across the QLD / NSW border and or develop late across far Southern areas of QLD. Some storms maybe SEVERE with Heavy Rain, Damaging winds and Large Hail especially inland away from the coast.


TUESDAY XMAS EVE: Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop across NENSW first earlier in the day and continue into the afternoon. Showers and storms are also expected to develop during the afternoon across inland areas of SEQLD. A surface low pressure system is forecast to develop across Southern inland QLD on the Darling Downs during Tuesday night. This feature is likely to cause areas of rain, showers and storms during Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across far South East QLD and far North East NSW. Some storms are very likely to be SEVERE during Tuesday afternoon and night. Heavy rain, Large Hail and Damaging Winds a moderate to high risk especially inland during the afternoon. Heavy Rain is a moderate risk during Tuesday night.
WEDNESDAY XMAS DAY: Due to the current forecast position of the surface low over Southern inland QLD in the morning its very possible that the day starts off with areas of rain, showers and isolated storms across SEQLD & NENSW. As the day progresses the surface low is forecast to move East to the coast and could develop a coastal trough as well. This system is expected to produce scattered showers and storms across NENSW and SEQLD before extending some storm activity up into Central East QLD late in the afternoon and evening. Due to faverable atmospheric conditions with very high moisture, high instability and strong winds, some SEVERE and possibly DANGEROUS storms are expected in SEQLD.

Highly detailed and accurate Higgins Storm Chasing Thunderstorm risk maps, Rainfall maps and Temperature forecasts are available here for SEQLD & NENSW! 

 

Christmas Rain And SEVERE Storms Across SEQLD & NENSW2019-12-21T17:41:46+10:00
13 12, 2019

Very Dangerous, Record-Challenging Heatwave Forecast To Sweep Across Australia!

2019-12-13T20:11:36+10:00

A significant heatwave is set to move across Australia, challenging the 50ºc threshold and All-Time Australian record! Every state is expected to be impacted with the worst of the heat across Western Australia and South Australia. Above image – Forecast maximums on Thursday via OCF / WeatherWatch (the dark blue spot is >50ºc).

While there are plenty of unofficial 50ºc+ temperatures recorded in seasons gone.. there are only 3 official 50ºc temperatures recorded in Australian history – those being January 2 & 3 at Oodnadatta in Northern SA (50.7 & 50.3ºc respectively) and 50.5ºc at Mardie in WA. A big reason for this is that many areas that ‘could’ have reached 50ºc don’t have official stations to record the data… thats about to change this week.


A VERY DANGEROUS heatwave is expected to move across Australia. The timing of this heatwave will be different for everyone with the system already in place across South West WA which is breaking records. Its expected to intensify over Southern WA over the weekend and into next week whilst pushing in South Australia. Maximums across Wednesday (Dec 18th) to Friday (Dec 20th) are expected to absolute roast! Numerous locations across Inland SA, Western SA and South East WA are forecast to reach 48ºc+ with some locations tipped to nudge 50ºc and possibly challenge the All-time Australian record. This heat will move into Adelaide with 4 straight 40ºc+ days from Tuesday to Friday and then into Northern VIC and Inland NSW from Wednesday to Saturday and possibly beyond where peak temperatures may nudge the high 40’s.

 

Locations such as Forrest in SE WA, Port Augusta, Kyancutta, Wudinna, Kimba, Tarcoola, Coober Pedy, Andamooka, Mount Ive, Roxby Downs, Woomera are all in line to potentially reach 50ºc with all of these locations looking at 48ºc+ on forecasts and some above 49ºc on raw data. 50ºc has never been officially recorded in Australia in December. For numerous locations, December records are LIKELY to be SHATTERED by several degrees!

Forecast maximums for Australia on Wednesday via OCF / WeatherWatch. Pink >47ºc, light blue >48ºc, dark blue >50ºc.

Eastern parts of NSW will feel a 1 day burst of heat on Thursday with maximums into the mid 40’s across areas away from the Coastline. While Eastern QLD will see the heat into the weekend as well and towards Christmas with maximums again into the 40’s over SEQLD and into the mid 40’s for much of the week over Inland QLD. For Tasmania and Southern VIC it won’t be dramatic, but it’ll be a change from recent weeks where Winter has lingered. 

Forecast maximums for Australia on Friday via OCF / WeatherWatch. Pink >47ºc, light blue >48ºc, dark blue >50ºc.

There is a major concern with the cool change. While its expected to drop temperatures by 12-18ºc between days, the change is likely to bring winds of 50km/h+ with it and gusts nearing 80-90km/h on the latest data. These winds coupled with temperatures into the high 40’s is disastrous for fire conditions. This will be something to monitor closely. These temperatures are also extremely dangerous to human health with fit adults succumbing to heat stress VERY QUICKLY. It has the potential to pose a risk to human life for those who are directly impacted for excessive periods of time – and this includes anyone, but especially the elderly, young, pregnant and ill. 

Further updates will apply to various areas in the lead up!


Very Dangerous, Record-Challenging Heatwave Forecast To Sweep Across Australia!2019-12-13T20:11:36+10:00
12 12, 2019

Dangerous Heatwave Forecast For Perth

2019-12-12T14:39:05+10:00

Perth is about to endure a record breaking run of heat which is likely to become very dangerous to human health as the Department of Health in WA issues a dangerous heatwave alert for the region. Above image showing temperatures into the 40’s across SW WA on Sunday afternoon. 

 

 

Perth is about to endure 4 consecutive days of 40ºc+ as it is impacted by a vile heatwave. Perth averages 29ºc for December, so anything at 35ºc+ is classed as a heatwave. The City earlier this month was impacted by 5 consecutive days of 35ºc+ which included a maximum temperature of nearly 42ºc on Day 2 of that heatwave. This system however is expected to be much stronger – delivering 7 consecutive days of 35ºc+ with 4 of those days above 40ºc! 

 

Forecast temperatures via EC mid afternoon on Friday showing temperatures into the high 30’s and low 40’s. Image via Windy

 

 

This level of heat has only been experienced once before in February 2016 when the City recorded 4 straight 40ºc days. That prompted the Department of Health to issue a heatwave warning as the level of unrelentless heat being experienced was a significant threat to those who are most at risk which include pregnant women, children / toddlers, the elderly and workers who spend excessive periods outdoors. This period of heat is expected to be no different with dangerous heat levels for 4 consecutive days forecast to affect those who spend excessive hours in the sun with work, children and toddlers, the elderly, pregnant women and even fit adults to a degree. 

 

BOM Heatwave Pilot for Thursday to Saturday.

 

This is a timely reminder to drink plenty of water and spend as much time in the shade as possible. Wear light clothing that can breathe and avoid strenuous activity as much as possible. Please also check on those who are most at risk. If you wish to claim that ‘its just Summer’ then go for it, but there are many people who WILL suffer and its respectful to look after them! 

 

Dangerous Heatwave Forecast For Perth2019-12-12T14:39:05+10:00
28 11, 2019

QLD To Feel The Summer Heat!

2019-11-28T14:03:48+10:00

An intense DAYTIME heatwave is about to sweep across South East and Central QLD delivering a period of relentless HOTTER THAN NORMAL conditions for these areas. Above image showing maximums for Wednesday, December 4th 2019 across South East and parts of Central QLD. Above image – Maximums for Wednesday across SEQLD & CQLD.

 

STORM FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE HERE.

 

During the weekend, a surface trough is expected to become situated near the Ranges across South East QLD, bending back through Southern Inland and Central Inland QLD. This will allow for Northerly winds to feed across South East and Central Eastern QLD which is likely to see not only temperatures but humidity increase across these areas. For the ‘true’ heat, you will probably need to head Inland as places like Brisbane, Gladstone and Bundaberg are expected to see maybe 32ºc, where as Ipswich, Gatton and Rockhampton are heading for more like 37ºc. 

 

Forecast maximums for Saturday, November 30th across SEQLD & CQLD via BSCH / OCF.

 

 

On Monday, the trough is expected to become situated right along the Coast throughout South East and Central Eastern QLD. This will direct much hotter and drier winds from Inland QLD towards the Coast. The trough is then expected to bounce between the Ranges and Coastline for the remainder of the week which will enable hot conditions to bake areas away from the Coast.

Across the period of Saturday to Friday (7 straight days) Ipswich is heading for 36ºc or higher, with peak temperatures around 38-39ºc. Gatton is heading for 7 straight days of 36ºc+ as well, with only 1 day below 38ºc during that time. Rockhampton will see maximums of 37ºc+ from Sunday to Thursday with peak temperatures around 40ºc. 

 

Forecast maximums for Monday, December 2nd across SEQLD & CQLD via BSCH / OCF.

 

 

A heatwave is considered 3 or more consecutive days and nights of 5ºc+ above average – DESPITE it being Summer. Ipswich averages 31ºc for December, Gatton averages 32ºc – these locations are looking at temperature anomalies of 5-8ºc above average for 7 consecutive days. This well and truly fits the criteria. The only exception will be the drier winds will allow for temperatures at night to drop to possibly even below average (around the mid teens). Rockhampton averages 32ºc for December, so 5 straight days of 5-8ºc above average fits the criteria for a heatwave. Gympie averages 31ºc for December, so 6 straight days of 5-7ºc above average fits the criteria. It will be far more pleasant closer to the Coast with maximums in the low 30’s, so it might be time to hit the beach if you want to escape the heat for a while! Redcliffe is peaking at 31-32ºc and the Gold Coast Seaway around 30ºc! Or… you could escape to Inland QLD where cooler South Westerly winds will dominate and produce BELOW AVERAGE temperatures as places like Birdsville sit in the low 30’s for several days.

 

Current BOM heatwave pilot for Monday to Wednesday showing heatwave conditions over Eastern QLD.

 

QLD To Feel The Summer Heat!2019-11-28T14:03:48+10:00