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22 02, 2018

Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, Gold Coast Could Get A Deluge

Posted 22nd Feb 2018. The South East QLD Coast is forecast to cop a deluge over the next 3 days with up to 200mm possible. Above image: Rainfall forecast data for Friday and Saturday via WRF / Weatherzone, purple = 100mm.

Various global computer models are continually forecasting heavy rain and storms across the 3 major cities in South East QLD over night Thursday and through Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The main target areas for 100 to 200mm are from the Sunshine Coast, through Brisbane and into the Gold Coast. 

A surface trough is currently across the Sunshine Coast on Thursday night generating widespread rain which is forecast to shift further South on Friday. As a result rain areas with moderate to heavy falls should also shift further South. HSC HQ has already recorded 150mm at Maleny with heavy rain continuing on Thursday night.

During Saturday and Sunday the trough remains across the region which is expected to produce scattered showers and storms with some storms likely severe with heavy rainfall leading the flash flooding.

The whole area is very likely to get rain and storms during the outlook period however the exact location for excessive rainfall totals of around 200mm is hard to pin point due to slight model variation. Flash flooding will become a risk under heavy rain areas. 

We will continue to provide forecasts, updates and warnings as the system unfolds. Below image: rainfall forecast data via GFS / BSCH. Higgins Premium forecasts and maps available here! 
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21 02, 2018

Heavy Rain Forecast South East QLD

Posted 21st Feb 2018. Heavy rain is forecast across South East QLD and North East NSW during the next 4 days. Accumulation totals along the coast are expected to exceed 100mm with possible locally higher falls of 200mm which may lead to flash flooding. Storms some severe are also a chance with heavy rain. There is an increased RISK of water spouts crossing the coastline. Above image via Higgins Premium.

A deep onshore flow is producing scattered showers and rain areas across the South East Coast, Wide Bay and Burnett districts on Wednesday. This activity is likely to continue overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.

A coastal trough is forecast to develop in the Coral Sea and track West during Thursday to cross the coast later in the day. This trough will lead to a significant increase in rain activity through the South East Coast, Wide Bay and Burnett districts and also the Northern Rivers of NSW. Moderate to Heavy falls are likely to develop during the afternoon and evening which may lead to flash flooding. There is a chance of thunderstorms developing also which could become severe with heavy rainfall. Thursday provides the highest risk for waterspouts crossing the coast which could cause isolated pockets of damage. 

On Friday the trough remains inlace across the Wide Bay and South East QLD coasts while shifting further South into the Northern Rivers of NSW. Scattered showers, storms and rain areas with moderate to locally heavy falls likely to continue which may lead to flash flooding. Some storms may be severe with heavy rain. 

During Saturday the surface trough is forecast to be located just inland. This is likely to lead to scattered showers and storms across South East QLD and North East NSW with some storms likely to be severe with heavy rain. Again flash flooding will be a risk.

The heaviest rain is forecast along the coast and adjacent hinterland and valley regions. Further West of the ranges rainfall totals taper down. Detailed 24hr rainfall and thunderstorm forecasts available via our HSC Premium Membership service. Click here to subscribe!

19 02, 2018

Tropical Cyclone Gita to cause Widespread Severe Weather across NZ

Tropical Cyclone Gita is remaining on track to cause widespread severe weather across New Zealand over the next 48-72 hours as it directly crosses over the Country. Above image – Winds on Tuesday afternoon via Windy

 

 

Tropical Cyclone Gita is currently a Category 2 tropical cyclone East of Lord Howe Island in the Tasman Sea. Over the next 24 hours, the system is expected to maintain its strength, if not slightly intensify as it transitions into an extratropical cyclone (thats a cyclone which is transitioning into non-tropical waters) before it makes landfall over the Northern parts of the South Island later on Tuesday.

 

Tropical Cyclone Gita track map via JTWC

Tropical Cyclone Gita track map via JTWC

 

 

The system, while its not expected to be as severe or even remotely prolonged as Fehi was to the South Island and Southern parts of the North Island.. it is still expected to impact the same areas with widespread falls of 100-200mm which are likely to cause flash flooding along with some creek and river rises which may lead to localised sustained flooding. Damaging winds are expected to become widespread across the Southern half of the North Island, Western North Island Coast and the majority of the South Island along with localised destructive winds of 125km/h+ over the South Island Southern Alps and Cook Strait. A large swell of 6m+ is likely to spread through Cook Strait with waves of 4-7m over the Western Coast of both Islands and the East Coast of the South Island on Wednesday.

 

 

While this isn’t an overly dangerous system or as long lived, its still likely to cause widespread severe weather which could impact the daily lives of highly populated areas. It may also cause transit issues with trees down over roads, roads closed due to flooding and hazardous driving conditions. So its important to not be complacent with this system.

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19 02, 2018

WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COMING FOR QUEENSLAND

Posted 19th Feb 2018. Widespread 50 to 100mm accumulated rainfall totals are forecast across the Eastern half of Queensland during the next 7 days. Isolated locally higher falls to 200mm are also possible especially through Northern districts. Above image: 7 day rainfall forecast totals via Higgins premium, click on the image for larger display.

One of the best rain and storm systems this Summer is very likely to impact large parts of the state starting from late Monday. A surface low and upper low combination will provide widespread instability across the state. This system will utilise very high moisture levels to produce widespread rain and storms with some storms very likely to be severe, along with locally moderate to heavy falls possible. 

The cut off for good falls at this stage is in a line East from about Mt Isa, Longreach to Goondiwindi with only light falls expected to the West. The best falls are also likely to be North of Brisbane, from the Sunshine Coast north through Central and Northern parts of the state. Severe storms are also expected to fire up with Heavy Rain and Damaging Winds though Large Hail can’t be ruled out due to cold air aloft. Southern inland, Central and Northern districts have the highest risks of severe storm activity this week. 

After a prolonged severe to extreme heatwave last week, the rain and cooler conditions couldn’t come at a better time for many people. Our detailed, accurate 24 hour daily rainfall and thunderstorm risk maps are available to Premium Members. Subscribe here or existing members Login here

 

16 02, 2018

QLD heatwave day 6 16th Feb 2018

Posted 16th Feb 2018. The prolonged widespread severe to extreme heatwave is forecast to continue across a majority of Queensland on Friday. This heatwave is forecast to last through until Saturday for Eastern districts while continuing until mid next week through the Western half of the state. Above image: Maximum temperatures via BSCH. 

Widespread scorching temperatures of 40 to 45C will continue across the North West, Central West, Central inland, Southern inland and parts of the South East. Along the very exposed coast (close to the beach) very warm and humid conditions of 32 to 35C are expected. For Eastern inland parts the temps will quickly go up to between 36 and 41C.

Fridays statewide maximum forecast temperatures are as follows…

Southern QLD: Brisbane CBD 34C – Eastern suburbs 32C – Western suburbs 36C, Ipswich 36C, Sunshine Coast 31C, Nambour 33C, Gold Coast 31C, Nerang 34C, Coomera 34C, Gympie 34C, Maryborough 33C, Bundaberg 32C, Gatton 38C, Toowoomba 33C, Warwick 36C, Inglewood & Millmerran 37C, Stanthorpe 33C, Dalby 36C, Roma 40C, Charleville 41C, St George 39C, Goondiwindi 40C, Quilpie 42C, Birdsville 43C.

Central QLD: Gladstone 33C, Biloela 37C, Gayndah 36C, Rockhampton 36C, Mackay 35C, Moranbah 39C, Emerald 39C, Longreach 43C, Boulia 43C.

Northern QLD: Townsville 34C, Cairns 34C, Weipa 33C, Georgetown 37C, Charters Towers 37C, Richmond 42C, Cloncurry 44C, Mt Isa 43C, Burketown 36C.

A majority of these forecast maximums are between 6 and 11C above the long term February average for longer than 3 days constituting a heatwave. Overnight minimum temperatures well also be 4 to 9C above average especially through Southern and Central inland parts. Very hot, humid oppressive nights also expected along the coast. Brisbane has been recording near record February minimum temps this week of around 26C.  
Below image: BOM heatwave Thursday to Saturday.

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15 02, 2018

TC Gita To Produce Large Swell For QLD And NSW

Posted 15th Feb 2018. Severe Tropical Cyclone Gita category 4 is located in the South West Pacific Ocean to the South West of Fiji. TC Gita is moving West and is forecast to generate Large and Hazardous swell along the South East QLD and NSW coasts over the weekend into early next week. Above image: Swell height and TC Gita via Windy. 

During the past week, there has been a number of public alarming, inacurate long range forecasts published in the media and on facebook about TC Gita. Lets get one thing very clear… TC Gita is NOT forecast by any global data to hit QLD or NSW!

Surfers rejoice beach goers be aware! TC Gita will produce an expected 2 to 3.5 meter large and hazardous Easterly swell along the Southern QLD coast and most of the NSW coast in coming days. Gita has and is expected to continue to have maximum wave heights up to 12 meters near its core.

TC Gita is forecast to slowly weaken from its category 4 status during the next 5 days. It is also forecast to take a long slow turning curve towards the South then later towards the South East. The system is expected to stay just to the East of Lord Howe Island but could impact New Zealand on Tuesday as an Extra Tropical Cyclone

Board Riders and Boaties – The first notable swell from TC Gita is expected to arrive on Friday with waves up to 1.5 meters on a 12 second period. This swell will steadily increase during the weekend with waves between 2 and 2.5 meters on a 12 second period. Early on Monday peak wave heights of 3 to 3.5 meters are forecast on the Southern QLD and Northern NSW coasts at a 15 second period. During Monday the swell of 2 to 3 meters will spread further South along the remaining NSW coast. On Tuesday conditions will ease to around 1.5 meters. 

Beach Goers – please be aware of hazardous to dangerous beach conditions during the weekend and on Monday. Rough breaking waves are expected along with very strong rips. Some beaches may close due to the conditions. Swim between the flags ONLY and stay in the shallows. Below image: TC Gita forecast intensity and track map via JTWC. 
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15 02, 2018

QLD heatwave day 5 15th Feb 2018

Posted 15th Feb 2018. The prolonged widespread severe to extreme heatwave is forecast to continue across a majority of Queensland on Thursday. This heatwave is forecast to last through until Saturday for Eastern districts while continuing until mid next week through the Western half of the state. Above image: Maximum temperatures via BSCH. 

Widespread scorching temperatures of 40 to 45C will continue across the North West, Central West, Central inland, Southern inland and parts of the South East. Along the very exposed coast (close to the beach) very warm and humid conditions of 32 to 35C are expected. For Eastern inland parts the temps will quickly go up to between 36 and 41C.

Thursdays statewide maximum forecast temperatures are as follows…

Southern QLD: Brisbane CBD 33C – Eastern suburbs 32C – Western suburbs 38C, Ipswich 38C, Sunshine Coast 33C, Nambour 35C, Gold Coast 32C, Nerang 35C, Coomera 35C, Gympie 38C, Maryborough 35C, Bundaberg 33C, Gatton 40C, Toowoomba 36C, Warwick 38C, Inglewood & Millmerran 39C, Stanthorpe 34C, Dalby 40C, Roma 41C, Charleville 41C, St George 41C, Goondiwindi 41C, Quilpie 42C, Birdsville 42C.

Central QLD: Gladstone 35C, Biloela 39C, Gayndah 40C, Rockhampton 39C, Mackay 35C, Moranbah 40C, Emerald 40C, Longreach 43C, Boulia 43C.

Northern QLD: Townsville 34C, Cairns 33C, Weipa 33C, Georgetown 37C, Charters Towers 39C, Richmond 43C, Cloncurry 44C, Mt Isa 42C, Burketown 36C.

A majority of these forecast maximums are between 6 and 11C above the long term February average for longer than 3 days constituting a heatwave. Overnight minimum temperatures well also be 4 to 9C above average especially through Southern and Central inland parts. Very hot, humid oppressive nights also expected along the coast. Longreach is only forecast to get down to 27C overnight on Thursday. 
Below image: BOM heatwave Thursday to Saturday.
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14 02, 2018

QLD heatwave day 4 14th Feb 2018

Posted 14th Feb 2018. The prolonged widespread severe to extreme heatwave is forecast to continue across a majority of Queensland on Wednesday. This heatwave is forecast to last through until Saturday for Eastern districts while continuing through the Western half of the state. Above image: Maximum temperatures via BSCH. 

Widespread scorching temperatures of 40 to 45C will continue across the North West, Central West, Central inland, Southern inland and parts of the South East. Along the very exposed coast (close to the beach) very warm and humid conditions of 32 to 35C are expected. For Eastern inland parts the temps will quickly go up to between 36 and 41C.

Wednesdays statewide maximum forecast temperatures are as follows…

Southern QLD: Brisbane CBD 35C – Eastern suburbs 33C – Western suburbs 40C, Ipswich 40C, Sunshine Coast 34C, Nambour 36C, Gold Coast 33C, Nerang 37C, Coomera 37C, Gympie 38C, Maryborough 35C, Bundaberg 34C, Gatton 41C, Toowoomba 36C, Warwick 39C, Inglewood & Millmerran 38C, Stanthorpe 35C, Dalby 40C, Roma 41C, Charleville 42C, St George 41C, Goondiwindi 41C, Quilpie 42C, Birdsville 42C.

Central QLD: Gladstone 35C, Biloela 40C, Gayndah 40C, Rockhampton 39C, Mackay 34C, Moranbah 42C, Emerald 41C, Longreach 45C, Boulia 43C.

Northern QLD: Townsville 34C, Cairns 33C, Weipa 33C, Georgetown 37C, Charters Towers 39C, Richmond 42C, Cloncurry 43C, Mt Isa 41C, Burketown 36C.

A majority of these forecast maximums are between 6 and 11C above the long term February average. Overnight minimum temperatures well also be 4 to 9C above average especially through Southern and Central inland parts. Very hot, humid oppressive nights also expected along the coast. Longreach is only forecast to get down to 30C overnight on Wednesday. 
Below image: BOM heatwave Wednesday to Friday.

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13 02, 2018

QLD heatwave day 3 13th Feb 2018


Posted 13th Feb 2018. The prolonged widespread severe to extreme heatwave is forecast to continue across a majority of Queensland on Tuesday. This heatwave is forecast to last through until Saturday for Eastern districts while continuing through the Western half of the state. Above image: Maximum temperatures via BSCH. 

Widespread scorching temperatures of 40 to 45C will continue across the North West, Central West, Central inland, Southern inland and parts of the South East. Along the very exposed coast (close to the beach) very warm and humid conditions of 32 to 35C are expected. For Eastern inland parts the temps will quickly go up to between 36 and 41C.

Tuesdays statewide maximum forecast temperatures are as follows…

Southern QLD: Brisbane CBD 35C – Eastern suburbs 32C – Western suburbs 37C, Ipswich 37C, Sunshine Coast 33C, Nambour 34C, Gold Coast 32C, Nerang 35C, Coomera 35C, Gympie 37C, Maryborough 35C, Bundaberg 33C, Gatton 39C, Toowoomba 35C, Warwick 37C, Inglewood & Millmerran 37C, Stanthorpe 33C, Dalby 40C, Roma 42C, Charleville 43C, St George 41C, Goondiwindi 40C, Quilpie 44C, Birdsville 44C.

Central QLD: Gladstone 33C, Biloela 41C, Gayndah 40C, Rockhampton 39C, Mackay 34C, Moranbah 43C, Emerald 43C, Longreach 45C, Boulia 45C.

Northern QLD: Townsville 34C, Cairns 33C, Weipa 33C, Georgetown 38C, Charters Towers 40C, Richmond 42C, Cloncurry 44C, Mt Isa 42C, Burketown 36C.

A majority of these forecast maximums are between 6 and 11C above the long term February average. Overnight minimum temperatures well also be 4 to 9C above average especially through Southern and Central inland parts. Very hot, humid oppressive nights also expected along the coast. Longreach is only forecast to get down to 29C overnight on Tuesday. 
Below image: BOM heatwave Tuesday to Thursday.

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11 02, 2018

QLD heatwave day 2 12th Feb 2018

Posted 11th Feb 2018. The prolonged widespread severe to extreme heatwave is forecast to continue across a majority of Queensland on Monday. This heatwave is forecast to last through until Friday. Above image: Maximum temperatures via BSCH. 

Widespread scorching temperatures of 40 to 45C will develop across the North West, Central West, Central inland, Southern inland and parts of the South East. Along the very exposed coast (close to the beach) very warm and humid conditions of 32 to 35C are expected. For Eastern inland parts the temps will quickly go up to between 36 and 41C.

Mondays statewide maximum forecast temperatures are as follows…

Southern QLD: Brisbane CBD 35C – Eastern suburbs 33C – Western suburbs 38C, Ipswich 38C, Sunshine Coast 34C, Nambour 36C, Gold Coast 33C, Nerang 35C, Coomera 35C, Gympie 38C, Maryborough 35C, Bundaberg 34C, Gatton 41C, Toowoomba 36C, Warwick 38C, Inglewood & Millmerran 40C, Stanthorpe 34C, Dalby 40C, Roma 43C, Charleville 44C, St George 42C, Goondiwindi 42C, Quilpie 45C, Birdsville 45C.

Central QLD: Gladstone 35C, Biloela 41C, Gayndah 41C, Rockhampton 41C, Mackay 36C, Moranbah 42C, Emerald 43C, Longreach 44C, Boulia 44C.

Northern QLD: Townsville 33C, Cairns 32C, Weipa 33C, Georgetown 38C, Charters Towers 39C, Richmond 42C, Cloncurry 44C, Mt Isa 43C, Burketown 36C.

A majority of these forecast maximums are between 6 and 11C above the long term February average. Overnight minimum temperatures well also be 4 to 9C above average especially through Southern and Central inland parts. Longreach is only forecast to get down to 29C overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning. 
Below image: BOM heatwave Monday to Wednesday. 
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