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21 11, 2017

Heat lingers for Adelaide and parts of SA!

Adelaide is yet another city added to the list of 130 year old feats being challenged as the Spring heat lingers in the City of Churches. Above image via OCF / BSCH for Wednesday (maximum temperatures).

 

Adelaide has seen some stifling temperatures over the past few days where the City recorded 31.8ºc on Sunday, 34.8ºc on Monday and 35.3ºc today (Tuesday). These temperatures aren’t exactly farfetched when just a week ago Adelaide endured 3 straight days which were hotter. Its the minimums however that could set the benchmark this time.

Adelaide is forecast drop down to around 23ºc tonight (Tuesday night / Wednesday morning). If the temperature was to stay above 23.5ºc which it has every chance of doing… then it will only be the second time in 130 years of records that the temperature has failed to drop below 23.5ºc for a 72 hour period. Monday’s minimum of 24.2ºc and last nights minimum of 25.4ºc have set the benchmark for tonight. 

 

To make matters worse… Adelaide was sitting on 28.8ºc at midnight last night. This is hotter than Sydney has been since October 30th and hotter than Brisbane has been since November 5th (which is even more impressive since Brisbane averages 28.2ºc for November).

The heat should linger across Wednesday in Adelaide and the majority of Eastern South Australia where maximums could reach the mid 30’s again, before a cooler change moves through on Thursday and conditions ease.

Forecast Maximums for South-Eastern SA tonight via OCF / BSCH

Forecast Maximums for South-Eastern SA tonight via OCF / BSCH

 

21 11, 2017

Record breaking Heat coming to Melbourne

Melbourne and Victoria are expected to see a spell of heat which is highly likely going to break records including the all-time November record and this is all thanks to a large high in the Tasman.

 

 

A large high pressure system which has been near-stationary over the Tasman Sea for a while now, is expected to move slightly East over today and the next few days (Tuesday to Friday). As it moves East, the North to North-Easterly winds over Victoria as a whole are expected to shift more towards the North and possibly North-West and this is only expected to see the temperature increase!

 

 

Melbourne’s records date back to 1855, and in that time the City has NOT recorded 7 straight days of 28ºc+ in November. Well, barring an absolute blunder by every forecast model… thats about to change. The last 4 days (including today) have recorded 28ºc+ – Saturday (28.1ºc), Sunday (29ºc), Monday (31ºc) and already before midday on Tuesday its 29.3ºc. The next 3 days are expected to climb into the low 30’s with some models even hinting at the mid 30’s. This covers out until Friday which will be the 7th day. Saturday is also going for 28ºc but this has a lot of variance involved as a weak change is expected to move through… if it comes through earlier it may only reach 25ºc, if it comes through later it could reach 30-32ºc. This is well above the 22ºc average for November.. and granted this is likely to come off, Melbourne will have seen 11 of the last 13 days and nights at 5ºc or more above average.

 

Current forecast maximums via OCF/BSCHfor Saturday, November 25th - this may give Melbourne an 8th straight day above 28ºc.

Current forecast maximums via OCF/BSCHfor Saturday, November 25th – this may give Melbourne an 8th straight day above 28ºc.

 

 

Its not just Melbourne suffering through this heatwave, with large parts of VIC and Tasmania expected to be scorching into the low to mid 30’s over the next few days and some have already seen it over the weekend just gone. 

 

Temperature anomaly for Thursday via PivotalWeather showing widespread 8ºc+ above average across VIC

Temperature anomaly for Thursday via PivotalWeather showing widespread 8ºc+ above average across VIC


 

20 11, 2017

Rain And Thunderstorms Set To Drench Parts Of Inland QLD!


Issued 20th November 2017. Widespread rain and thunderstorms are forecast across parts of Central inland and Northern inland Queensland this week. The area from about Longreach to Charters Towers and Mt Isa to Georgetown has the potential to receive up to 50mm with heavier falls to 100mm+ possible. Above 6 day rainfall forecast image via Windy.com. 

Severe storms with heavy rainfall are very likely to develop across the Central West, North West, Gulf and Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders districts from Tuesday to Friday. 

A slow moving surface trough and low pressure system will draw in very high levels of Tropical moisture from the Gulf of Carpentaria and Coral Sea. Instability will be aided by an upper trough of cold air to generate a good combination for rain and storms to develop.

The main days look to be Tuesday and Wednesday at this stage when rain and storms will be at there heaviest. Flash flooding from heavy rainfall under storms is a very high possibility.

Scattered showers are likely each day along most of the East Coast due to a moist onshore wind flow. 

Below image: Severe thunderstorm forecast map on Tuesday via HSC Premium. We also have large parts of North West under a severe threat level on Wednesday as well. Click here and subscribe to gain access to our detailed 24hr rainfall and thunderstorm forecast threat maps! 

QLD Nov 21 Storms   

20 11, 2017

Significant Heatwave expected for Tasmania

Its not often that Tasmania becomes the focal point for heatwave potential over Australia however a high pressure region is expected to give Hobart a potentially record breaking heatwave, along with Tasmania in general. Above image via OCF (Forecast maximums for Wednesday).

 

A large high has been anchored over the Tasman Sea for the last few days, this high is expected to finally drift fractionally East which will allow warmer Northerly winds to flow into Tasmania producing well above average temperatures. Hobart typically averages 19ºc as a maximum during November with minimums at 9ºc, Launceston is similar only the maximums are averaged at 20ºc.

Over the past week maximums have lingered mostly around 4-7ºc above average for the majority of Tasmania with the odd day creeping up towards 30ºc which is around 10ºc above average, however over the next few days, maximums are likely to reach 27-32ºc across the majority of the State which is in the vicinity of 8-14ºc above average while overnight minimums remain well above average in the South.

 

BOM Heatwave pilot showing a severe heatwave for Tuesday to Thursday across TAS

BOM Heatwave pilot showing a severe heatwave for Tuesday to Thursday across TAS

 

 

If Hobart sees 27ºc+ over the next few days (which is highly likely given forecasts indicate 29ºc on Monday and Tuesday, 30ºc on Wednesday and 31ºc on Thursday) then this will be the first time in ANY MONTH that 27ºc+ has been recorded on 6 consecutive days since 1890 (127 years) and the first time in November that its happened in 136 years. Places like Launceston and the Northern half of the State could see 7+ days straight of 27ºc starting from today (Monday, 20/11/17).  

So even if it seems tame for most people, its obviously quite significant for Tasmania who are used to a more tame climate even in Summer. Models are even indicating that after a brief “cool” down which is still potentially 3-6ºc above average, another wave of prolonged heat may impact the State for a further week.

 

 

 

 

15 11, 2017

Widespread Rain & Storms For NSW, ACT & Victoria!

 

Issued 15th November 2017. Widespread rain and storms are set to develop across most of Victoria, South East SA, New South Wales and the ACT from now until Saturday. A low pressure system is developing over South East South Australia on Wednesday afternoon producing rain and storms across the region. This low extends a trough to the North through Western NSW and Victoria. Over the next 3 days the system will develop further at it moves slowly East. Above image: Instability levels on Friday via GFS / BSCH. 

On Wednesday night and Thursday the low is forecast to be located over Western Victoria producing rain areas with moderate to heavy falls possible. A severe weather warning for Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding is current for the Western third of Victoria.
Across the Eastern two thirds of NSW including the ACT scattered showers, rain areas and storms are also expected to develop during Thursday. Some of these storms may become severe with heavy rainfall.
Meanwhile rain and storms, some severe possible are forecast to develop across most remaining Central and Eastern parts of Victoria. 

During Friday the low pressure system is expected to drift slightly West to be located close to the South Australian / Victorian border. Near this low scattered showers, rain areas and isolated storms are forecast across South East SA and Western Victoria.
The low continues to extend a trough to the North East across the Eastern half of Victoria, Eastern half of NSW and through the ACT. Scattered showers, rain areas and storms with some likely severe with heavy rain are likely across these regions. 

The low pressure system weakens on Saturday but the surface trough remains in place across the Eastern half of Victoria, Eastern half of NSW including the ACT. Again, rain areas, scattered showers and storms are likely across these regions with some storms likely severe with heavy rain inland. 

3 day rainfall totals of 25 to 50mm are forecast across the Eastern half of NSW and the ACT. 10 to 20mm forecast along the North East NSW coast and through the far west of the state.
10 to 20mm is forecast across the Eastern half of Victoria with a significantly higher amount of 50 to 100mm possible across the Western half of the state.
The South East corner of SA could also see falls of 25 to 50mm. 
Detailed 24hr rainfall and thunderstorm risk maps across NSC, ACT & VIC are available through our premium membership service. Click here for more details and to subscribe ! Below image: 4 day rainfall forecast via BOM. 

BOMPMERAIN15THTO18THNOV2017

15 11, 2017

Rain & SEVERE Storms Likely Across The Southern Half Of QLD!

Issued 15th November 2017. Widespread showers, rain areas and SEVERE storms with heavy rain are set to make a return across the Southern half of Queensland later this week! After a really quiet period during the past week, a surface trough and upper trough will develop and intensify across Central and Southern districts from Friday onwards. Above rainfall forecast image via GFS / BSCH. 

The heaviest rainfall looks very likely to occur across the Western Darling Downs, Warrego & Maranoa and Central Highlands districts.  Severe storms with heavy rain leading to flash flooding are also very likely to develop across these districts on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Rainfall totals of 50 to 100mm are possible with some isolated higher falls. 

The Central East and Coast, South East and Coastal districts from Rockhampton South to the Gold Coast are also expected to see scattered showers, rain areas and isolated storms develop on Saturday and Sunday.
Rainfall totals through these areas are forecast to be much lighter than inland though most locations should still pick up between 15 and 25mm.
 

Detailed 24hr rainfall and thunderstorm risk maps across South East QLD and QLD state are available through our premium membership service. Click here for more details and to subscribe ! 

 

13 11, 2017

QLD – Storms for Western, Central and Southern districts this week!


UPDATED 15th November 2017: Click here for the latest forecast details! 

Issued Monday 13th November 2017. Showers, storms and some rain areas are expected to develop across Western, Central and Southern Queensland districts this week. Some storms are likely to be SEVERE across the Southern inland from Friday to Sunday with Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding being the main threat. 

A slow moving surface trough will lie through Western districts for the first half of the week before intensifying and moving East into Central and Southern inland districts from Friday.

Storm activity is initially forecast to remain West from about Julia Creek, Longreach to Charleville each day from Monday through until Thursday. 

On Friday the trough gains strength and additional moisture levels across the Central West and Southern inland. Some storms will possibly be severe with heavy rain. 

During the weekend the trough is forecast to continue to strengthen with increasing instability and moisture levels across Central inland and Southern inland parts of the state. This is likely to lead to scattered showers, scattered storms and possible rain areas. Storms will be more likely to become severe with Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding being the main threat.

Some storm activity may push through or even develop along the Central and South East Coast over the weekend but scattered showers look more likely at this stage.

Detailed rain and storm forecasts and maps available here >  https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/

10 11, 2017

Stormy weather for Central Australia

Issued 10/11/17. Large parts of Central Australia will fire up with widespread storms during the next 5 days due to a quasi-stationary broad surface trough. Above image: 4 day rainfall forecast total via BOM. 

Most of the Northern Territory should see showers and storms each afternoon including Darwin and Alice Springs. Uluru has storms forecast for the next 7 days, it would be a spectacular sight for people visiting the area to witness a large storm rolling over the red rock.

Large parts of the Western Australia interior and also the Western half of South Australia are expected to see widespread storm activity. A low pressure system is forecast to eventually develop through South West Western Australia on Sunday which will also give Perth the chance of storms before moving East on Monday.

Any of these storms have the potential to be severe due to the very high heat levels mixing with high moisture levels. At the stage damaging winds and heavy rain are the main threats with isolated large hail possible.

Widespread rainfall of 10 to 20mm is forecast with isolated areas up to 50mm, much of this will highly depend on locations being directly under storm activity or not. With the potential remaining in place for 5 days most towns and properties are likely to pick up some rain. 

9 11, 2017

Eastern QLD: Cooler temps, windy with no storms for the next week

Issued 9/11/17: After a very active period of thunderstorms across Central and Southern parts of Queensland conditions will be much more settled now for the next 7 days. A slow moving large high pressure system in the Tasman Sea will dominate much of the state for an extended period of time. Good news for those cleaning after severe storms caused extensive damage across parts of the state especially in Bundaberg. Above image: MSL pressure chart for Friday via GFS / BSCH. 

Below average temperatures for November are forecast across the Eastern half of the state until mid next week. In the South East, conditions will be rather cool for this time of year with maximums between 20 to 25C. Minimums are likely to dip into the single digits across the Granite Belt.

Winds from the South East will tend fresh and gusty at times along the coast while tending slightly lighter East South Easterly over inland districts.

A surface trough will however trigger showers and storms through the Western and Northern inland parts of the state on Thursday and Friday this week before contracting further West out of the state on Saturday.

Onshore winds are likely to produce the chance of some showers along the coast each day for the next 7 days.

The next storm activity is expected to develop across Western and Southern inland parts of the state on Thursday and Friday next week. This is then forecast to shift East into Central and South East districts during next weekend. 

Subscribe here to HSC for our detailed rain, storm and cyclone forecasts and maps across Queensland!

7 11, 2017

Volatile Weather to strike NZ!

Large parts of New Zealand are about to experience widespread severe weather as a low and associated trough move across the Country! Above image: Wind gusts via WindyTV for Midnight Wednesday (aqua >90km/h, purple >125km/h).

 

A deepening low pressure system with a pressure of around 975-980hpa (equivalent of a Category 2 Cyclone in the tropics), is expected to cross the South Island of New Zealand late on Tuesday and during the overnight hours into Wednesday. This low is expected to have a trough associated with it which will stretch back towards the North and North-West, covering the North Island and this should also move through overnight Tuesday into Wednesday bringing its own severe weather.

Severe Weather Outlook via the NZ Metservice

Severe Weather Outlook via the NZ Metservice

 

The South Island and Cook Strait / Wellington are forecast to cop the worst of the weather. Winds across Cook Strait are likely going to exceed the destructive criteria of 125km/h and will likely nudge 150km/h in some areas. Widespread wind gusts of 90-130km/h are likely over the majority of the South Island also – starting during the evening over the Alps and spreading to the East Coast overnight into Wednesday. These kinds of winds can cause widespread damage to trees, power and property. Heavy rainfall is also likely with falls of 100mm+ likely over parts of the South Island and localised falls of up to 150-180mm forecast. These kinds of falls could cause localised flash flooding and localised river and creek rises which may exceed flood levels. 

 

Forecast Rainfall via GFS / BSCH

Forecast Rainfall via GFS / BSCH

 

Heavy snow is also forecast both overnight Tuesday into Wednesday and throughout Wednesdays. Snow is forecast to fall to as low as 200m over Southern parts of the South Island, with heavy snow likely down to as low as 400m! Snowfall accumulations are expected to likely to exceed 50cm for many parts of the Alps, with up to 100cm possible in some parts. Snow is also likely in elevated parts of towns such as Canterbury, Otago and surrounds.

 

"Forecast