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11 11, 2016

Heavy rain and strong winds to lash Tasmania this weekend!

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT TASMANIA FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FLOODING & STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS – issued Friday 11/11/16, valid for Saturday 12/11/16 and Sunday 13/11/16

During Saturday a 990hpa low will approach the state from the North West moving East through Bass Straight during Saturday night and Sunday. A strong deep North East wind flow will develop across the state during Saturday morning before a trough attached to the low moves south across the Northern half during Saturday evening. This trough shifts the winds from the North East to the North West before stalling over the Southern half of the state. As the low pressure centre moves East on Sunday a strong deep South East wind flow develops. 

Strong to possibly damaging winds, showers increasing to rain with moderate to heavy falls possible across the North and East during Saturday and Saturday night. Flash flooding, river and creek rises a risk through these areas. 24 hr rainfall totals of 50 to 100mm possible across the North East.

Strong to possibly damaging winds, showers and rain areas continuing on Sunday with moderate to heavy falls possible through the Eastern half of the state. Flash flooding, river and creek rises a risk through these areas. 24 hr rainfall totals of 50 to 100mm possible across the Eastern half including Hobart. 

The low pressure system moves away from Tasmania during Monday with weather conditions easing early. 

24hr rainfall forecast totals for Saturday

24hr rainfall forecast totals for Saturday

24hr rainfall forecast totals for Sunday

24hr rainfall forecast totals for Sunday

 

6 11, 2016

HOT conditions to roast QLD this week

After a mild October maximum temperatures are set to sky rocket over most of Queensland. A stalled low pressure trough system through inland regions of the state will generate a constant hot airmass. There will be no let up from the heat for 5 to 7 days with some locations pushing the 40c mark! Very high fire dangers are also forecast for Central, Southern inland and South East districts.

EAST COASTAL DISTRICTS – VERY WARM & HUMID 
Locations right along the Northern, Central and Southern coastal fringes are likely to see top temperatures each day of between 30 to 35c, however with high humidity levels the “feels like” could be much higher. After midday, afternoon sea breezes on the coast will cool things down but then expect very warm humid nights to follow.
* Brisbane: Mon 30c, Tues 35c, Wed 34c, Thurs 37c and Fri 33c.
* Gold Coast: Mon 30c, Tues 33c, Wed 33c, Thurs 35c and Fri 32c.
* Sunshine Coast: Mon 29c, Tues 32c, Wed 31c, Thurs, 34c and Fri 31c.

seq-nensw-heat-nov-7-to-11
EASTERN HINTERLANDS, VALLEYS & RANGES – VERY WARM TO HOT
There is a heatwave forecast this week for some South East inland districts; Maximum temps of more than 5c above average for 3 or more days running. The afternoon Sea Breeze front is unlikely to reach into these areas.
Locations such as Gatton, Ipswich, Beaudesert, Gympie, Gayndah, Rockhampton, and Biloela the Maximum temperatures are forecast between 35 and 38c each day.
In Toowoomba, Warwick and Stanthorpe Maximum temperatures of between 30 to 35c are expected all week.

ALL REMAINING INLAND DISTRICTS – HOT 
Weather conditions for the entire week are going to be hot with maximum temperatures between 35 and 40c expected. These hot conditions are expected to affect 90% of the state.

STORMS – SOME SEVERE LIKELY
Due to the trough generating high heat and very unstable conditions, thunderstorms are likely across many locations this week. There is a high chance that some of these will be severe. There is also the possibility of a few very dangerous storms and Supercells.

SAFETY DURING HOT WEATHER  
Heat stroke and heat exhaustion are a serious health risks. If they are not treated quickly they may take your life. Here are some precautions to use during hot conditions.
* Drink plenty of water
* Drink less tea, coffee and alcoholic beverages to avoid dehydration
* Wear lightweight, light coloured and loose fitting clothing
* Make sure the clothes you are wearing are made from a fabric which allows you to “breathe” and lets sweat evaporate
* Protect yourself outside. This includes ‘Slip, Slop. Slap. Seek, Slide‘. Seek shade
* Limit physical activity and the time you spend doing outdoor activities.
* Don’t leave children or pets in cars
* Relax and Stay Cool
* Keep your energy level up by eating well nourished foods, which includes plenty of fruit and vegetables
* Watch out for others, including the elderly, young, pregnant and active
* Remember pets and wildlife by offering shelter and plenty of water
* Check your vehicles water / coolant levels to avoid overheating. The safest time to check your engine is before use in the morning when it is cold.

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24 08, 2016

Cold mornings with frost returning to Southern, South East & Central QLD

Where has Jack Frost been? August has seen limited morning frosts in Queensland giving people a false belief that Winter was gone. From Friday morning onwards and through the weekend widespread frosts are expected to develop through Southern inland, South East inland and Central inland parts of the state. Central and South East coastal regions will also shiver as minimum temps drop well into single digits. 

Saturday spells the coldest morning with widespread frosts expected through the Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Warrego and Maranoa, inland parts of the South East Coast / Wide Bay Burnett and Southern parts of the Central Highlands. The coldest temperature forecast in the state is for Stanthorpe with -2.6c on Saturday with most locations across the Downs and Granite Belt going for near 0c or below.

Frost forecast on Saturday via BOM

Frost forecast on Saturday via BOM

Brisbane will drop to around 7c on Friday and Saturday while Ipswich is forecast to get as low as 3c. Other locations near the coast such as the Gold and Sunshine Coast will also fall to between 7 and 9c. 

Daytime temperatures across Southern inland parts of the state will have a chill about them on Friday and Saturday with top temps between 14 and 18c. Fresh dry cold South to South West winds will also cause a chill factor of up to 5c on both days. 

We have a week left of Winter and it is not done just yet!

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23 08, 2016

Late August drenching for half of Queensland!

The rain is beginning to fall over Western and Southern Queensland with a drenching on the way during the next 2 days! In the 24hours to 9am Tuesday good widespread rainfall reports of 10 to 20mm have filtered in from inland parts of the state. This is only just the start with much more widespread rain and isolated storms to come across Western, Southern and Central inland districts. Most places average around 20mm for the entire month of August and this system has the potential to deliver up to 5 x that. Above image: Total forecast rainfall from the system ( widespread 25 to 50mm in blue and purple, isolated 50 to 100mm, in red ) via Pivotal 

QLDVISSATBSCH23RDAUGUST2016

Satellite image of QLD 10am, 23rd August 2016 via BSCH

A strong large upper level trough of very cold air has pushed North into Central parts of Australia, this trough then draws in vast amounts of deep moisture from Northern and Eastern regions. The two then work together creating a large area of low pressure which then in turn produces rain and thunderstorms. The stronger the upper and surface features are the heavier the rain becomes… With this system they both significant! 

While the North East and Central East parts of the state will largely miss out the same can’t be said for everywhere else. Western, Central inland, Southern and South East districts will all get a good drenching from this system where widespread totals of 25mm are almost guaranteed, 25 to 50mm is likely and localised totals to 100mm are possible! 

On Tuesday the heaviest rain is likely fall through the North West, Channel Country, South half of the Central West, Maranoa and Warrego, Darling Downs and Granite Belt and possibly the South East Coast late. Basically South of a line from about the Sunshine Coast to Dalby to Longreach to Mt Isa is where 25mm is likely and 50mm is possible. Isolated storms may also occur over these regions with heavy rain and strong winds.

Early Wednesday the system shifts East early in the day with the heaviest rain being focused through the South East Coast, Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Southern Central Highlands and Coalfields and the Central West districts. So say South and West of Gympie to Emerald. Again 25mm is likely and 50mm is possible. Isolated storms may also occur over these regions with heavy rain and strong winds. 

Places through the Central East will also get some rain and the odd storm during Wednesday early Thursday but at a much more reduced amount than others. The Capricornia, Wide Bay and Burnett, remaining Central Highlands and Coalfields and Central Coast could pick up around 15mm from this system. During Thursday the entire system shifts off the East Coast of QLD and a return of fine conditions is expected. image

 

 

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18 08, 2016

A wetter finish for August expected over much of Queensland

It has been a relatively dry first half of August for much of Queensland however this is likely to change mid next week with a widespread rain and storm system on the cards for much of the state. A second follow up weather pattern could also bring another round of rain and storms across the state during the final 3 days of August. Above image: 14 day rainfall forecast totals via Pivotal Weather ( blue = 10 to 25mm, purple = 25 to 50mm, red = 50 to 100mm )

Note: Due to this being an extended prediction, rainfall totals, timing and locations may vary with amendments to be made as required.

At this stage the first signs of weather will occur through Southern inland QLD during Monday afternoon and evening due to a surface trough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through the Maranoa and Warrego districts possibly extending East to include the Western Darling Downs. 24 hour totals should remain less than 15mm.

On Tuesday the surface trough strengthens ahead of an upper trough moving into South West parts of the state. A band of showers and thunderstorms are likely to stretch from the North West through the Central West into Southern inland QLD districts while moving slowly East. The South East Coast, Wide Bay and Burnett could also see some afternoon scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best 24 hours falls are forecast through the Warrego and Maranoa, Darling Downs and Granite Belt where up to 25mm is possible.

Image: Low pressure system over Eastern Au on Tuesday 23rd August 2016 via Pivotal Weather

Image: Low pressure system over Eastern Au on Tuesday 23rd August 2016 via Pivotal Weather

Durning Wednesday a broad trough remains in place from the North West to South East of the state. A band of showers, rain areas and isolated thunderstorms are expected to be located from the North West through Central West across the Southern inland to the South East QLD Coast. Late Wednesday evening the system pushes further East where the Central Highlands, Wide Bay and Burnett should see an increase in activity. The highest falls are forecast through the Darling Downs, South East Coast, Wide Bay and Burnett, Central Highlands and Coalfields where up to 25mm is possible.

For Thursday the entire system progresses East to Coastal districts from Townsville south to Coolangatta. Widespread showers, rain areas and isolated thunderstorms likely through most Eastern districts of the state before clearing off the coast late in the day. Dry cool West to South West winds across the state in the systems wake.image

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A secondary follow up widespread rain and storm system is forecast to move across the state on the 29th, 30th and 31st. Totals of around 30mm are being projected by extended forecast models at this stage. While both systems are not expected to bring high totals each they should certainly offer reasonable amounts for this time of year.

30 05, 2016

Frozen end to May in Southern QLD & Northern NSW

Above image: Chris McFerran SE QLD Weather Photography -2.7c near Warwick

After above average temperatures through most of May, widespread inland frosts with frozen fences have finished off the end of the month through Southern QLD and Northern NSW. A large high pressure system in NSW made way for clear skies and the winds to ease during late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Conditions were primed for frosts to develop with many inland locations falling below zero by sunrise. Along the coast people also felt the cold chilly air with temps well into the single digits.

The coldest location early Monday morning was at Glen Innes where a numbing -6.2c was recorded and an apparent temp of -11.3c! Numerous locations across Southern inland QLD fell to below zero including an unofficial report of -6.5c near Kingaroy which generated wide spread frosts. Along the South East Coast Amberley reached 0c, Brisbane 9c, Coolangatta 7c, Maroochydore 4c with local inland frosts.

Michelle Pillon near Kingaroy -6.5c

Michelle Pillon near Kingaroy -6.5c

A warm fine sunny day is expected across both regions on Monday with further frosts expected on Tuesday morning before retracting to the Northern Tablelands on Wednesday. Become a HSC Subscriber HERE!

 

 

25 05, 2016

The El Nino of 2015/16 has ended!

Above image: May 23rd 2016 SST anomalies via NOAA’s Climate Predication Centre

After 14 months of existence the worlds equal strongest ever recorded El Niño climate pattern has ended. There is also a near zero chance of it redeveloping for the rest of 2016 and through the first half of 2017 along with a 75% chance for the opposite La Niña developing.

On May 24th 2016 the latest observation data from Climate Predication Centre revealed Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures had rapidly cooled to just 0.2c above average. This is 0.3c below the El Nino threshold. Trade winds have returned to near normal and the Southern Oscillation Index rising to -2.3 with Neutral ENSO conditions now current. La Niña is likely in about 3 months time, maybe sooner.

What influences did El Niño have on Australia?

* Hotter than normal minimum and maximum temperatures with record heat across the country

* Below average rainfall across many parts

* A failed wet season in the tropics

* Lowest number of cyclones ever recorded

* Worsening drought conditions

* Increased Dust storms and Bush fires

* Coral bleaching

“It’s going to take time for the atmosphere to respond and rainfall to return to those people who have been significantly affected” said Jeff Higgins.

“We won’t just see an overnight change across Australia especially through the Northern half of the county. Winter is typically the driest time of year for these areas and I can’t see it being any different” he said.

The Southern half of Australia has a moderate chance of above average Winter rainfall due to other local climate factors. Over the next few months key climate indicators will continue to be closely monitored for changes which paint a much clearer forecast picture for Spring and Summer.

24 05, 2016

More rain on the way for South East Aust then cold!

After widespread rain fell across many parts of South East Australia earlier this month, forecasts are confident that follow up rain is on the way this week! While we have been seeing numerous cold fronts sweeping across far Southern regions over the past few weeks delivering exception rainfall to South West WA and Western Tasmania, large parts of NSW, VIC and SA have missed out all together.

Currently on Tuesday morning the significant cold front system has just moved through South West WA delivering up to 50mm of rain along with wild windy conditions. As the front  tracks East for the rest of the week it is expected to produce wet weather much further North than over the previous 2 weeks. There will also be an added rain influence due to 2 Low pressure systems developing, one just to the North East of Tasmania and the other just to the South East of South Australia.

During Wednesday the front moves through the Southern half of South Australia producing strong North to North West winds ahead a band of scattered showers and light rain areas with 24hr totals between 10 and 20mm possible. 

On Thursday cooler South West winds flow through South Australia with clearing showers through the South East of the state. Rainfall activity increases early through most inland regions of NSW and all of Victoria with moderate falls up to 25mm likely and isolated totals to 50mm possible. A low develops off the North East coast of Tasmania increasing rain activity through Eastern districts with up to 25mm possible.

Friday the weather pattern becomes very complex with the low deepening to the North East of Tasmania maintaining showers and rain to the Eastern half of the state. Most of the activity will clear NSW before yet another small but intense cold cored low develops and impacts South East South Australia and Western Victoria. Strong to Damaging winds, scattered showers and isolated storms with hail may develop through South East South Australia late Friday into early Saturday. 

2 complex low pressure systems on Friday

2 complex low pressure systems on Friday

The significant cold core low pressure system then moves North East into NSW blasting cold West to South winds over the state including Victoria with maximum temps plummeting on Saturday and Sunday. 

28 04, 2016

Good rain event likely for South East Australia

AMENDED: A widespread 3 day significant rain event is now confidently forecast by modelling on Friday, Saturday and Sunday across New South Wales, ACT, Victoria and Tasmania. After a very dry previous 3 months across South East Australia, water storage’s, agricultural regions and the Murray Darling Basin are suffering badly, all locations where this rain is forecast are in desperate need.

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So let’s cut to the chase and have a look at day by day what could be expected….

Early Friday a deep North to North West airflow fetches moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans which feeds into an approaching upper level trough of cold air from the South West. Scattered showers, isolated storms and rain areas are expected to develop through Western NSW, Western Victoria and Northern and Western regions of Tasmania during the day. The system builds stronger by the afternoon while slowly progressing East to lie from North West NSW to Tasmania. Rainfall totals up to 25mm are forecast through Central and Southern inland NSW, Northern Victoria and Northern Tasmania with falls up to 10mm through the remaining Western half of NSW, ACT and all of Victoria and Tasmania.

On Saturday the system relaxes rainfall intensity slightly across Tasmania, Victoria and ACT however instability increases through Western and Central NSW. The deep North West airflow with high moisture generates more storms with the best falls up to 25mm expected in these regions.

In the Early hours of Sunday morning a vigorous front will sweep out of South Australia East into Western Victoria and New South Wales. A band of showers, thunderstorms and rain will accompany the front as it moves across all of Victoria, Tasmania, ACT and New South Wales during Sunday and into Sunday night. Strong North to North West winds will preceed westerly winds with possibly damaging winds on elevated terrain and with thunderstorms. The system peaks in intensity due to a new strong upper trough pushing in from the west. Potential rainfall amounts of up to 30mm may occur in the Central and Southern inland parts of NSW including ACT. Central Victoria is expected to see similar conditions as NSW with up to 30mm possible and down in Tasmania 50mm across the state. Some locations in Southern inland NSW, Central Victoria and Western Tasmania may see system event rainfall totals to 100mm before it clears on Monday. Daily forecast amendments will be made if required.

On Monday and Tuesday the system moves into North East NSW and South East / Central QLD, a separate forecast blog is current. Image Credit: 4 day rainfall forecast totals via BOM

25 04, 2016

Soaking rain coming for South East Australia this weekend

A strong frontal system is forecast to bring widespread rain to NSW, ACT, VIC & TAS later this week with a potential of up to 50mm in places and widespread falls of 15mm. Above image: System forecast total rainfall via Tropical Tidbits.

On Friday afternoon the trough system taps into extra moisture through Western NSW, Victoria and Tasmania due to Northerly winds. Showers, isolated storms and rain areas are expected to develop during the afternoon and night while slowly progressing towards the East.

During Saturday a secondary stronger front pushes in amplifying rain areas showers and storms stretching from the NW of NSW through Central and Southern inland districts including the ACT. Victoria’s Eastern half is likely the benefit most on Saturday along with much of Tasmania.

Sunday the weather system continues to produce rain through most of inland NSW, ACT, VIC and TAS before clearing from the West late in the day.

The best falls are forecast to occur through the Central and Southern inland parts of NSW, Central inland Victoria and Western half of Tasmania with totals to 50mm possible.
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4 day rainfall totals via BOM