Models are continuing to indicate a very severe / dangerous weather event for the Eastern NT, Western and South West QLD, possibly extending into Central QLD courtesy of Ex-TC Trevor and its moments. Above image via Windy showing rain / storm overlay for Tuesday with a threat area circled for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Its not often we see this – Especially for Western QLD and the Eastern NT, but there is the potential for a very significant weather event over the next few days which ill include an extreme threat of major flooding along with an elevated risk of dangerous thunderstorms containing destructive winds and tornadoes. This is all being brought about by Ex-TC Trevor which is predicted by global models to move through the Eastern NT and into Western / South West QLD before shifting towards Central Inland QLD over the period of Monday into into Wednesday night.
The main focus will be over the heavy rain which we have blogged already HERE. This heavy rain has the potential to produce widespread major flooding across a large portion of Eastern NT, Western, South West and potentially Southern Inland QLD with widespread falls of 50-150mm and scattered falls of up to 300mm! There is an increased risk that river catchments impacted by the February flooding may be impacted again, which will only speed up the flood process.
While that will be the obvious concern. There will be another concern for dangerous thunderstorms and an elevated risk of tornadoes. Its understandable for people to not quite grasp this, but tropical cyclones are quite prone to producing waterspouts (over water) and tornadoes (over land). This all comes about from the system’s drawing in very high moisture levels and combing that with increased wind shear surrounding the system. This then leads to any thunderstorms in the near vicinity of the system or over the Eastern periphery usually, starting to rotate. The strong wind shear allows the rotation to tighten and waterspouts / tornadoes develop.
Tuesday: Instability is forecast to increase across Western QLD, East and South East of Ex-TC Trevor. This will combine with a trough extending East from Trevor to produce increase wind shear over the Eastern, Southern and South West peripheries of the system. It will be this area (circled in pink) that has the highest risk of “any” thunderstorms producing destructive winds or tornadoes.