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24 03, 2019

Elevated Risk of Dangerous Storms over Inland parts of QLD

2019-03-24T11:36:30+00:00

Models are continuing to indicate a very severe / dangerous weather event for the Eastern NT, Western and South West QLD, possibly extending into Central QLD courtesy of Ex-TC Trevor and its moments. Above image via Windy showing rain / storm overlay for Tuesday with a threat area circled for Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

Its not often we see this – Especially for Western QLD and the Eastern NT, but there is the potential for a very significant weather event over the next few days which ill include an extreme threat of major flooding along with an elevated risk of dangerous thunderstorms containing destructive winds and tornadoes. This is all being brought about by Ex-TC Trevor which is predicted by global models to move through the Eastern NT and into Western / South West QLD before shifting towards Central Inland QLD over the period of Monday into into Wednesday night. 

 

The main focus will be over the heavy rain which we have blogged already HERE. This heavy rain has the potential to produce widespread major flooding across a large portion of Eastern NT, Western, South West and potentially Southern Inland QLD with widespread falls of 50-150mm and scattered falls of up to 300mm! There is an increased risk that river catchments impacted by the February flooding may be impacted again, which will only speed up the flood process. 

While that will be the obvious concern. There will be another concern for dangerous thunderstorms and an elevated risk of tornadoes. Its understandable for people to not quite grasp this, but tropical cyclones are quite prone to producing waterspouts (over water) and tornadoes (over land). This all comes about from the system’s drawing in very high moisture levels and combing that with increased wind shear surrounding the system. This then leads to any thunderstorms in the near vicinity of the system or over the Eastern periphery usually, starting to rotate. The strong wind shear allows the rotation to tighten and waterspouts / tornadoes develop. 

Tuesday: Instability is forecast to increase across Western QLD, East and South East of Ex-TC Trevor. This will combine with a trough extending East from Trevor to produce increase wind shear over the Eastern, Southern and South West peripheries of the system. It will be this area (circled in pink) that has the highest risk of “any” thunderstorms producing destructive winds or tornadoes.

Tuesday winds / instability combo with elevated risk area for dangerous storms circled in the pink. Base image via BSCH

 

Wednesday: The threat will shift East with the system. Ex-TC Trevor is forecast to move over Western QLD which will mean instability will extend across Northern and Central Inland QLD. The trough will remain East of the system and continue to provide a localised area of enhanced destructive wind / tornado potential.

There is a very high risk that observation stations across Inland QLD won’t record 125km/h+ winds, and there is an even higher chance that a tornado won’t be spotted due to the sparsely populated and largely inaccessible area that the heightened risk lies over. That doesn’t take away from the fact that the potential is still there and there is every risk that a poor farmer or property owner could be under it. The easiest way to detect these dangerous storms will be with water vapour imagery and lightning overlay.

Wednesday winds / instability combo with elevated risk area for dangerous storms circled in the pink. Base image via BSCH

 

Elevated Risk of Dangerous Storms over Inland parts of QLD2019-03-24T11:36:30+00:00
24 03, 2019

Snow, Rain & Storms forecast for VIC & TAS

2019-03-24T07:32:09+00:00

The first signs of Winter are about to sweep through South Eastern AUS over the next 24 hours as a cold front brings rain, storms and snow to VIC and TAS! Above image 48 hour rainfall for TAS via weather.us

 

Its around this time of year that we see the first signs of Winter approaching South East AUS. While Summer snow isn’t exactly uncommon across TAS, there is a different approach to the season’s change when its associated with the first main cold front. That cold front is forecast to sweep across Tasmania, Victoria and Southern NSW over the next 24 hours bringing with it rain, storms and snow.

 

During Sunday, the focus of weather will be over VIC and Southern NSW where very warm to hot conditions ahead of the cold front fuel the heat required for some thunderstorms to develop across the region. These storms may be late developers due to the timing of the front and may also be heavily focused over South West / Southern Inland NSW and Western VIC. Due to their speed, not a lot of rain may come out of them – but it could be another dust kicker for rural areas from the winds. 

 

Overnight Sunday into Monday, the cold airmass trailing in behind the front is expected to start to impact Tasmania and Western VIC, reaching Eastern areas of both States comes Monday morning. This will allow showers and rain areas to develop across Western TAS where a much needed 25-50mm is expected along with locally higher falls being possible. Unfortunately for VIC, a lot of the rain will reside over the Snowy Mountains / VIC Alps where 30-70mm is expected. The cold air mass will also combine with the increased moisture to proceed the right ingredients for snow flurries across the Tasmanian Highlands where 10-15cm is forecast to fall. Snow should fall down to around 700-800m across TAS. Across VIC, the snow potential is almost non-existent but it wouldn’t be a total shock to see some unsettled or very light flurries over Mt Hotham or Mt Buller. The cold air mass will also drop temperatures by about 10-14ºc over VIC where most areas will barely get out of the teens on Monday compared to almost 30-33ºc on Sunday.


Snow, Rain & Storms forecast for VIC & TAS2019-03-24T07:32:09+00:00
23 03, 2019

Trevor To Bring Widespread Heavy Rain for South West QLD & South East NT!

2019-03-23T10:49:36+00:00

While there is an obvious and much required focus around the catastrophic potential of Trevor’s landfall over the Southern / South West Gulf of Carpentaria. The futuristic potential of the system is very promising with widespread significant rainfall forecast for heavily drought stricken parts of South East NT and South West / Southern QLD. Above image via rainfall accumulation for the next 5 days.

 

Trevor is forecast to move South West into the Central NT near Elliott and then South towards Tennant Creek. During this time the system is likely to weaken below cyclone thresholds, but still retain some very strong to possibly damaging winds. From Tennant Creek, the system is expected to track South East towards South East NT and then possibly entering South West QLD – this overall tracking doesn’t really alter too much in the forests though due to an associated trough with the system extending across South West and Southern Inland QLD. What all of this will do is draw in excessive amounts of moisture from the North and North East (tropical and monsoon moisture) which will converge around Ex-TC Trevor and lead to the development of widespread rain areas and storms.

Wind accumulation via Windy showing the South and South East track of Trevor over the next 5 day.

 

 

Across South East NT and South West QLD – widespread falls of 50-100mm are highly likely. This will include the towns of Birdsville, Windorah, Adavale, Quilpie, Jundah, Thargomindah, Charleville, Durham Downs, Ballera, Boulia, Bedourie, Jervois, Canteen Creek, Ali Curung and surrounding areas. Further scattered to widespread falls in a band surrounding the actual track of the system and associated trough will range from 100-200mm with isolated falls of 300mm+ being possible. 

BOM 8 day rainfall showing widespread 50-200mm across South West & Southern QLD + South East NT.

 

 

This kind of rainfall will have the potential to produce widespread flooding across both regions with the potential of some localised 24 hour or monthly record’s being challenged. This rainfall will potentially isolated and inundate communities across both South West QLD and South East NT for a number of days if not more than a week given the widespread nature of rain and extensive amount of time it typically takes to recede. This rainfall will also eventually flow into Lake Eyre. This definitely has the potential to be a very significant rain event across both areas that we haven’t seen since at least 2011, if not longer. 

There is further potential for heavy rain beyond the current 5 day outlook across Southern and South East QLD, however this potential is still unsettled for now – further updates will apply for this in the coming days.

OCF Forecast Rainfall for Tuesday ALONE. Some of these totals could be doubled for the day given the nature of the setup.

 

Trevor To Bring Widespread Heavy Rain for South West QLD & South East NT!2019-03-23T10:49:36+00:00
23 03, 2019

Up To 2 Years Worth Of Rain To Flood The Pilbara In 3 days!

2019-03-23T09:26:26+00:00

Severe Tropical Cyclone Veronica is expected to be a little different from typical WA systems. Normal WA tropical cyclones – while they produce heavy rain, its not excessive like we see in Queensland or the Northern Territory. Veronica due to her movements is expected to be very different, dumping up to between 1 and 2 years  worth of rain in just 3 days! Above image via Windy showing the EC 3 day rainfall accumulations.

 

 

A “normal” WA tropical cyclone will produce around 100mm of rain usually across the Pilbara. Some areas may see a little more, with isolated 200-300mm totals… but the “heavy’ WA falls are usually reserved for the Kimberley. As Severe TC Veronica approaches the Pilbara Coast and makes landfall during Sunday, the system is expected to interact with a complex synoptic pattern which will cause it to not quite stall, but more of less move around in circles on itself. Global forecast models have been in full agreement about this for a number of days, with the system bouncing anywhere from Port Hedland or North of Port Hedland down to Dampier an Karratha and Inland to Wittenoom over a 3 day period. This will lead to excessive rainfall accumulating over the region.

 

GFS 3 day rainfall via Windy

 

 

There is some variance in model data as to where the absolute highest falls will be. The GFS American Model is plastering the Port Hedland region with over 400mm of rain. The European Model is plastering the Coast between Karratha and Port Hedland with up to 600-700mm and rain and a large area of 300mm+. Either scenario gives the same results.

Average Yearly / 2 yearly totals include:
• Karratha 296mm / 593mm
• Roebourne 314mm / 628mm
• Port Hedland 317mm / 635mm
• Wittenoom 461mm / 963mm

 

 

So as you can see, if GFS comes off – then some areas will likely receive over a years worth of rain in 3 days. If EC comes off, then some areas could see 2 years worth of rain! The end result will likely be widespread excessive major flooding that cuts many towns off for weeks due to the landscape layout and the way the water flows across the Pilbara. The flat, hardened earth will mean very little of it soaks into the ground but instead becomes almost instant flooding. This along with the other threats from Veronica will lead to some towns being isolated for more than a week and possibly much longer than that. Note: BOM already have a Flood Watch for the area, stating falls of 500mm+ are expected in isolated areas. 

 

 

Up To 2 Years Worth Of Rain To Flood The Pilbara In 3 days!2019-03-23T09:26:26+00:00
10 03, 2019

Australian March Record Broken In The Pilbara

2019-03-10T20:04:17+00:00
 

The Pilbara has copped some absolute furnace-like heat today with temperatures scorching to those normally experienced in the peak of Summer! This was all brought on by a surface trough located near the Pilbara Coast drawing in hot, dry, desert heat across the region for an extensive period of time which allowed temperatures to continuously scorch. Roebourne was the pick of the bunch though, breaking the Australian March Record of 47.8ºc set back in 2007 and 1998! Above image via Weatherzone, the yellow circle shows the 48ºc captured at Roebourne during the afternoon.

 

Top Temperatures:
• Roebourne 48.1ºc – New State & Australian Record!
• Marble Bar 47.4ºc – New March Record
• Onslow 47.2ºc – New March Record
• Port Hedland 47.0ºc – New March Record
• Telfer 46.3ºc – New March Record
• Wittenoom ~46.0ºc – New March Record
• Karijini North 45.8ºc
• Christmas Creek 45.7ºc
• Paraburdoo 45.7ºc
• Karratha 45.5ºc – Second hottest March day
• Mandora 45.5ºc – 0.1ºc off the March Record
• Fortescue Dave Forrest 45.3ºcLearmonth 45.2ºc
• Newman 45.2ºc – New March Record
• Warburton 44.8ºc – New March Record
• Degrussa Aerodrome 44.6ºc

 

 

Notes:
• 4 of the 12 recordings of 47ºc+ in March for Western Australia have occurred today.
• Roebourne has broken its March record of 47.8ºc with records dating back to 1957. Roebourne has also broken the State and Australian record of 47.8ºc set by both Carnarvon, WA in 2007 & Roebourne itself in 1998!
• Marble Bar (118), Port Headland (109) both have records dating back over 100 years, Onslow over 75 years, Telfer over 50 years, Newman and Warburton around the 40-45 year mark.
• A side note worth mentioning, Marble Bar has now officially recorded 107 consecutive days above 100ºF (37.8ºc). Their world record of 160 consecutive days will take some beating, but another 7 days above 100ºF are expected to stretch the run to 114+ days and it wouldn’t be a shock to see the 122 day run a few years ago get a run for its money.

 

Official Australian Records showing the maximum record for March across the Country being 47.8ºc. Note: all top 10 temperatures held by WA

Australian March Record Broken In The Pilbara2019-03-10T20:04:17+00:00
10 03, 2019

March Heatwave to Challenge Records Across SEQLD

2019-03-10T18:56:03+00:00

Across the next 3 days or so, the South East quarter of QLD is expect to endure a “potentially” record breaking heatwave. Above image – Maximums for South Eastern QLD via OCF for Monday.

 

It gets hot in March, but going off the data we have available to us – it doesn’t get this hot. A surface trough is expected to move into the region during Monday, lasting until Wednesday. This trough is expected to draw in hot Westerly winds into the back of it which will combine with very warm and humid Northerly winds. This combination along with a warming air mass is expected to provide the perfect setup for temperatures to scorch into the mid to high 30’s for 3 consecutive days across South East QLD, with some isolated areas pushing 40ºc on Monday. You have to remember that this is March, so we don’t see this kind of heating very often, if at all, across the region – so this will likely be classed as a ‘Severe’ strength heatwave.

BOM Heatwave Pilot showing ‘Severe’ heatwave conditions across SEQLD

 

It would be right to assume we (South East QLDers) get hot in March. Its typically a very warm and normally quite humid month. However, data available to us, suggests its doesn’t get this hot.
• Brisbane’s March record is 38.8ºc set back in 1965, it hasn’t exceeded 35ºc in March in the last 25+ years – Monday will be heading for 36-37ºc.
• Ipswich’s March record is 38.9ºc set in 2007 – Monday is heading for 39, possibly even 40ºc!
• Gatton’s record is 39.5ºc set in 1980 – both Monday and Tuesday are expected to nudge 40ºc
• Kingaroy’s record is 37.0ºc set in 2007 – Monday and Wednesday are heading for 36ºc, Tuesday 37ºc
• Warwick’s record is 37.2ºc set in 1998 – Monday and Tuesday are expected to exceed 36ºc.

OCF Forecast Maximums for Tuesday via BSCH

 

The good news for some, will be that this heat and humidity won’t be for nothing – some storms are expected each day across parts South East QLD. Many places will miss out, but for those who are lucky enough to receive a good storm – then some good rain is on offer as well as some momentary relief from the heat. Just like the good old days. We have to stress though, that some people WILL miss out. Its not the perfect storm setup! For storm forecast details click HERE

From that small sample of locations, you can see that while March has historically had its moments of high end heating, theres a fair chance this will exceed those moments. Even though its been a fairly hot Summer across the region, and more so dry, with heat streaks broken left right and centre, its still a time to be weary of those who are susceptible to heat exhaustion. The elderly, pregnant woman and kids are the most at risk of heatstroke and heat related illness, as well as pets. Given this heat is happening over week days, it would be advised to pack some iced water or have some cool packs in your kids lunches and maybe even supply them with some sunscreen. 

OCF Forecast Maximums for Wednesday via BSCH

 

March Heatwave to Challenge Records Across SEQLD2019-03-10T18:56:03+00:00
25 02, 2019

Super Typhoon Wutip – The Strongest February Typhoon In History!

2019-02-25T19:24:37+00:00

Super Typhoon Wutip has made history today, becoming the strongest typhoon in recorded history through the month of February. Thankfully it has achieved such a feat over open waters. Above image via RAMMB / CIRA.

 

Wutip has achieved history, becoming a Super Typhoon during Monday, February 25th 2019. The system is producing sustained winds of around 260km/h and wind gusts to well over 300km/h which makes it comfortably a Category 5 system but also, more importantly for history reasons, the strongest typhoon (not cyclone – specifically typhoon) for February. Such a feat has been achieved due to the fact February is virtually the complete opposite month for a typical typhoon season. To put it into perspective, this would be like Australia getting a system stronger than Cyclone Yasi in July. 

Rainbow Satellite imagery shows the perfect eye of Wutip via NOAA

 

 

For now, Wutip is remaining over open waters and not really bugging anyone – located well North of Yap and well West of Guam. The system has a perfectly symmetrical eye wall feature which is conducive of your typical Super Typhoon. Models are in full agreement that over the next 3 days, the system is expected to be very slow moving over favourable waters. This will at least maintain the system’s strength for a short period of time. Beyond the next 3 days there is a general agreement that the system will move towards either the Northern Philippines or Southern Taiwan. The good news is models are in full agreement that whatever path the system takes from Wednesday or Thursday onwards, it will enter very unfavourable much cooler waters and increased vertical wind shear which will rapidly weaken the system. Its likely to weaken so quickly that it may not even reach land as a circulation, but completely wash out. 

This makes it perfect for weather lovers, weather chasers and general enthusiasts alike to admire what is simply a perfect storm in the most unlikely of situations.

Super Typhoon Wutip forecast track by JTWC

 

Super Typhoon Wutip – The Strongest February Typhoon In History!2019-02-25T19:24:37+00:00
25 02, 2019

Record Heat Streak Ends for Brisbane – Continues for Ipswich!

2019-02-25T18:01:27+00:00

Brisbane has finally ended its run of record breaking heat which has SMASHED the previous record. For those just West of the City though in Ipswich and surrounds… the record continues! 

It certainly hasn’t been “insanely hot” or “unbearably hot” by any means, but Brisbane has finally ended its record breaking run of 30ºc. The City reached 29.4ºc today (February 25th) which broke a run stretching from January 9th to February 24th – a total of 46 consecutive days. This obliterates the previous record of 30 consecutive days from January 27th to February 27th 2017. So you definitely cant argue that this is “normal”.

What is probably the most impressive feature of this stretch of heat, is that no individual days were excessively hot. In the 46 day stretch, only 2 days exceeded 34ºc (February 12 and 13). The only feature which is where people probably started complaining about the relentlessness of that heat was the 18 straight days above 32ºc which is pushing the realms of “noticeably above average” and is also a record for Brisbane for consecutive days above 32ºc. The addition of 57 consecutive nights above 20ºc probably didn’t help either (that streak ended this morning as well with 19.8ºc). During that stretch, only 2 nights were above 25ºc and only a handful above 24ºc – so nothing “excessive” just consistently relentless. This run of heat topped off a record hot January in terms of monthly average’s as well. 

Weatherzone Data for Brisbane from January 1 to February 25th

Ipswich on the other hand has pushed the streak much further. Ipswich reached 30.2ºc today, which makes it the 61st consecutive day above 30ºc and continues on a record breaking streak that is now over 20 days above the previous record. The last time Ipswich failed to reach 30ºc was 29.8ºc on Boxing Day, so that means today has been the coldest day of 2019 so far for the area. Apart from the 41ºc scorcher a little under 2 weeks ago, there hasn’t been an excessive number of days excessively above average so to speak – similar to Brisbane City, its just been relentless and consistently above 30ºc. Models are indicating Ipswich may only reach 29ºc tomorrow (Tuesday) but if it happened to make it to 30ºc, then it could be more than a week before sub-30 occurs again. Note: There are 3 blank maximum days for Ipswich on January 23, 24, 25 – When clicking on the data for those days, Ipswich either neared or exceeded 35ºc on all 3 days, well above the 30ºc requirement. So even though a true maximum wasn’t obtained, the 30ºc+ threshold we know was reached.

Weatherzone data for Ipswich from January 1st to February 25th

Record Heat Streak Ends for Brisbane – Continues for Ipswich!2019-02-25T18:01:27+00:00
18 02, 2019

Its Going To Be Hot First Before Anything Else

2019-02-18T12:10:12+00:00

While all the focus is around Tropical Cyclone Oma and whether or not it is or isn’t coming to Queensland.. we do have other weather going on in the time being, the most significant being a low to moderate intensity heatwave which is forecast to move across the State during the first half of the week. Above image via OCF / BSCH showing Maximums for Tuesday.

 

A heatwave is classed as a period of 3+ consecutive days where maximum and minimum temperatures are at least 5ºc above average. The lower this anomaly, the lower the heatwave intensity, the higher it is then the higher the intensity. This is being classed as a low to “severe” or in other words, low to moderate strength heatwave where maximums are likely to be around the 5-8ºc maybe pushing 10ºc mark above the February average over the course of a 3-4 day period through the majority of QLD.

 

The heat is expected to build on Monday to above average over most of the State before a combination of a dry warming air mass combined with a dry South to South West flow over Inland areas and a very warm and humid North Easterly flow over Coastal areas kicks in and produces an increase in atmospheric heating. This is likely to produce widespread maximums of 40-45ºc and some isolated higher temps over Inland areas, while Coastal areas such as South East QLD should climb into the mid 30’s. This is likely to remain in place across Wednesday and Thursday as well where parts of South East QLD may push 40ºc while Southern and Central Inland areas scorch well above 40ºc. 

Forecast Maximums via OCF / BSCH for Thursday across Queensland

During Friday, the heat is expected to ease gradually over Southern and South East areas where maximums will still be above average but maybe 1-2ºc cooler than previous days. During the weekend however, regardless of what Oma does, a Southerly to South East flow is expected to scream in over the South East of the State and may drop temperatures to below 30ºc for the first time in 2 months for some areas while large parts of Eastern QLD should be back to at least normal if not below normal by Sunday. The only exception into the weekend will be Western and North West areas who will still be under the influence of 40ºc+ temperatures.

Forecast Maximums via OCF / BSCH for Saturday across Queensland

 

Its Going To Be Hot First Before Anything Else2019-02-18T12:10:12+00:00
11 02, 2019

Hot Conditions To Impact Flood Affected North QLD

2019-02-11T13:35:47+00:00

As many residents of North QLD know, after a cyclone comes the heat.. and the heat is certainly coming in after the recent flood event across the region, which is only going to make conditions repulsive across the region. Above image – Wednesday maximums via OCF / BSCH.

 

Over the past few days, temperatures have pushed not only back to normal but above average across the Northern QLD and Tropical North QLD region. Townsville saw its warmest day in a month yesterday with 34ºc, Cairns its warmest since before Christmas with 38ºc! While areas across Northern Inland and North West QLD finally climbed back into the mid 30’s after being in the low 20’s as maximums over the past 1-2 weeks. 

OCF Forecast Maximums for Tuesday via BSCH

 

Across the next few days, temperatures are expected to only climb as a warming air mass moves over the region and combines with hot dry air coming from Inland Australia and pushing into Coastal parts of QLD courtesy of a coastal surface trough. This combination will allow maximums during Monday through to Thursday to climb well above average across Coastal parts of North QLD where daily maximums should reach the mid to high 30’s, while Northern Inland QLD should sit just above average in the mid to high 30’s as well. Some locations may even touch 40ºc. 

 

When you add this repulsive heat with extreme moisture laden surface conditions, and even ongoing extreme flooding… not only does the risk of waterborne diseases increase as waterborne insects will thrive, but even if the air itself is dry, the surface conditions where people exist, work, function.. will be extremely humid. This will make it feel much worse than what it really is.

OCF Forecast Maximums for Thursday via BSCH

 

Hot Conditions To Impact Flood Affected North QLD2019-02-11T13:35:47+00:00