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22 07, 2019

Warm Winter Week Coming Up For QLD

2019-07-22T18:32:38+10:00

A series of slow moving, large and dominating high pressure regions are expected to create a much warmer the normal week across QLD this upcoming week. Above image: OCF Forecast maximums for Tuesdays across SEQLD via BSCH.

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After a warm Monday, temperatures are expected to only continue to rise across Queensland during the next week. This has been brought on by a series of slow moving, large and dominating high pressure regions which are expected to move across mainland Australia during the next 7 days. These high’s are expected to be relentless and lead to continuous fine and sunny days across the majority of the State. Light winds will also lead to minimal influence on the overall temperature which is expected to climb State-wide to above average for the entire week.

A pressure and wind map off Windy, showing a large high still dominating Eastern AUS (and QLD) on Friday.

 

 

OCF Forecast Maximums for Queensland on Thursday via BSCH

 

Across the South East of the State, maximums are expected to hover around the mid 20’s for much of the week with some locations pushing the high 20’s or maybe even 30ºc on Tuesday. This is well and truly above the average for July which sits around the upper teens / low 20’s depending on the location. Across much of the remainder of the State, maximums are likely to be in the mid to high 20’s, possibly pushing the low 30’s depending on the exact location – this will be around 3-5ºc above average for July standards. Due to various reasons, overnight minimums will struggle to plummet as seen last week – especially across Southern and South East QLD. 

This doesn’t mean its the end of Winter by any stretch, its just a warmer week. We are only entering the peak of Winter now, so Winter lovers still have something to look forward to.

OCF Forecast Maximums for Queensland on Sunday via BSCH

 

Warm Winter Week Coming Up For QLD2019-07-22T18:32:38+10:00
22 07, 2019

Wet & Windy Week Forecast For Tasmania

2019-07-22T12:46:12+10:00

Tasmania is expected to bare the brunt of the weather over the next week as a series of cold fronts impacts the State bringing strong to damaging winds, heavy rain, storms and snow. Above image 5 day rainfall via Windy showing 50mm+ in orange, 25mm+ in yellow.

 

 

During the course of the next week, a series of cold fronts are expected to sweep across Tasmania late on Monday, overnight Thursday into Friday, another on Friday and then Saturday.These cold fronts are expected to bring typical Winter weather to the State with showers and rain periods coinciding with the passing of each cold front, as well as lingering showers in between fronts as an onshore flow trails in behind – feeding moisture in off the Bight and waters North of Antarctica across the State. There is the chance of some storms associated with each cold front as well, as warmer air ahead of the fronts interacts with increased moisture and cooler air behind them. Across the course of the next 5 days (Monday through to Friday) this should lead to falls of 30-60mm becoming likely across the Western and Northern regions of the State, but unfortunately rainfall is expected to be very limited over the South East of TAS courtesy of the Mt Wellington rain shadow.

 

 

Each front is expected to also bring with it strong to locally damaging winds of 60-100km/h (the higher gusts will be over open Coastal areas on the West and South Coast as well as elevated terrain). Snowfall is expected to be fairly limited as there are no major upper level systems associated with any of these fronts. So falls of 10-20cm are expected to be the peak falls over the Central Highlands during the week. 

While this is ‘just normal’ for this time of year. There isn’t much else happening around the Country as multiple large high pressure regions dominate the mainland. This could lead to some frost, but in terms of inclement or severe weather – Tasmania holds the keys this week.

 

Forecast Snowfall for TAS during the Monday (Jul 21) to Friday (Jul 25) period. Image via Windy

 

Wet & Windy Week Forecast For Tasmania2019-07-22T12:46:12+10:00
22 07, 2019

Know Your District! (Western Australia)

2019-07-22T00:39:55+10:00

When it comes to severe weather, regardless of the type of the scenario, one of the age old questions we receive on Higgins Storm Chasing, as well as any other weather page across the globe is ‘Will this affect me at x”. Generally ‘districts’ or much broader areas are labelled rather than specific towns. This is largely due to weather being unpredictable down to the nearest town and weather systems being quite large which means their potential is spread over hundreds of kilometres. Its also due to there sometimes being so many town, that the list would be far too long for it to be beneficial. Some setups or systems are easier to predict than others, but even in those situations, districts or parts of a district (i.e Northern WA, South West WA or Inland WA) are labelled. Above image is a base image from Weatherzone.

Western Australia 2 divisions which are divided evenly into 7 forecast districts each according to the Bureau of Meteorology. These districts along with SOME of their respective towns include (Obviously not all towns are named, but if you recognise a nearby town, then chances are you are included in that district):
Mining & Pastoral:
1 – Kimberley: Broome, Fitzroy Crossing, Halls Creek, Wyndham, Troughton Island, Kalumburu, Kununurra, Wallal Downs, Lombadina, Derby, Bidyadanga, Mandora, Dampier Peninsula, Dampier, Media, Kuri Bay, Mitchell Plateau, Doongan, Mt Elizabeth, Lake Argyle, Warmup, Durack.
2 – Pilbara: Port Hedland, Exmouth, Onslow, Karratha, Roebourne, West Roebourne, Newman, Tom Price, Paraburdoo, Marble Bar, Telfer, Roy Hill, Pannawonica, Wigttenoom, Indee, Goldsworthy, Pardoo, Shay Gap, Dampier, Barrow Island, Nyang, Cane, Learmonth, Karijini, Mardie. 
3 – Gascoyne: Carnarvon, Denham, Shark Bay, Meekatharra, Gascoyne Junction, Useless Loop, Murchison, Yalgoo, Cue, Mount Magnet, Sandstone, Cue, Peak Hill, Paynes Find, Evanston. 
4 – Goldfields: Kalgoorlie, Leinster, Leonora, Boulder, Norseman, Laverton, Coolgardie, Bandya, Sir Samuel, Lawlers, Kookynie, Higginsville, Wiluna. 
5 – Eucla: Eucla, Forrest, Eyre, Balgair, Haig, Caiguna, 
6 – Northern Interior: Balgo Hills, Bamboo Creek. 
7 – Southern Interior: Giles, Warburton, Wingellina, Carnegie.

South West Land Division:
8 – Central West: Geraldton, Dongala, Kalbarri, Morawa, Bunjil, Coorow, Jurien Bay, Leeman, Moora, Calingiri, Bolgart, New Norcia, Dandaragan, Canna, Binnu, Northampton, North Island. 
9 – Lower West: Perth, Gingin, Maundering, Bullsbrook, Mandurah, Herron, Waroona, Rockingam, Rottnest Island, Hillarys, Lancelin, Jandakot, golden Bay, Coolup, Serpentine, Byford, Gosnells, Garden Island, Halls Head, Preston Beach, Scarborough, Two Rocks, Dwellingup. 
10 – South West: Cape Naturaliste, Cape Leeuwin, Windy Harbour, Northcliffe, Manjimup, Bridgetown, Mullalyup, Donnybrook, Collie, Harvey, Busselton, Walpole.
11 – South Coastal: Denmark, Borden, Gnowangerup, Napier, Albany, Manypeaks, Bremer Bay, Jacup, Jerramungup, Mount Barker, Wellstead.
12 – South East Coastal: Esperance, Hopetoun, Ravensthorpe, Grass Patch, Scaddan, Condingup, Salmon Gums, Beaumont.
13 – Great Southern: Lake Grace, Katanning, Narrogin, Cranbrook, Kojonup, Wagin, Boddington, Hastings, Brockton, Corrigin, Hyden, Newdegate, Dumbleyung, Train Rock, Harrismith, Mount Madden, Williams. 
14 – Central Wheat Belt: Merredin, York, Northam, Goomalling, Beacon, Southern Cross, Dalwallinu, Goodlands, Yorkakine, West Golleton, Bruce Rock, Babkin, Quairading, Beverley, Wubin, Koolyanobbing. 

Western Australia is arguably the most diverse State for weather, so sometimes its important to to group large areas, particularly in the South or in the Far North for widespread severe weather. Cold fronts in Winter can impact Southern and South West WA which may include any of the following: South West, Lower West, Southern Coastal, Great Southern, Central Wheat Belt. Storms can often impact the Goldfields, Great Southern, Central Wheat Belt, South Coastal areas and this is often referred to as the Central & Southern Interior districts. Cyclones can impact the Northern districts and so the Pilbara and Kimberley will sometimes be referred to in general as “Northern WA”. Western Central WA is the Southern reaches of the Pilbara, Gascoyne and Northern parts of the Central West. 

BOM Forecast Districts for WA with the Mining & Pastoral + South West Land Division sectors identified.

 

Know Your District! (Western Australia)2019-07-22T00:39:55+10:00
21 07, 2019

Know Your District! (Northern Territory)

2019-07-21T23:59:06+10:00

When it comes to severe weather, regardless of the type of the scenario, one of the age old questions we receive on Higgins Storm Chasing, as well as any other weather page across the globe is ‘Will this affect me at x”. Generally ‘districts’ or much broader areas are labelled rather than specific towns. This is largely due to weather being unpredictable down to the nearest town and weather systems being quite large which means their potential is spread over hundreds of kilometres. Its also due to there sometimes being so many town, that the list would be far too long for it to be beneficial. Some setups or systems are easier to predict than others, but even in those situations, districts or parts of a district (i.e Southern NT, Northern NT, North West or North East NT) are labelled. 

 

The Northern Territory has 9 forecast districts according to the Bureau of Meteorology. These districts along with SOME of their respective towns include (Obviously not all towns are named, but if you recognise a nearby town, then chances are you are included in that district):
1 – Darwin-Daly: Darwin, Berrimah, Wagait Beach, Batchelor, Wangi Falls, Adelaide River, Wadeye, Plump, Dorisvale, Cooinda, Pine Creek, Berry Springs, Florence Falls, Tjaynera Falls, Noonamah, Humpty Doo, Howard Springs, Leanyer, Nightlife, Coolalinga.
2 – Tiwi: Pirlangimpi, Wurrumiyanga, Milikapiti, Nguiu, Bathurst Island, 
3 – Arnhem: Nhulunbuy, Busman, Twin Falls, Minjilang, Galiwinku, Warruwi, Maningrida, Ngukurr, Jim Jim Falls, Jabiru, Ubirr, Gunlom, Milingimbi, Groote Eylandt, North East Island, Alyangula, Numbulwar, Cape Shield, Cape Wilberforce, Cape Wessel, Gove, Ramingining.
4 – Carpentaria: Katherine, Borroloola, Wollogorang, Daly Waters, Mataranka, Centre Island, McArthur River, Larrimah.

5 – Gregory: Victoria River Downs, Timber Creek, Kidman Springs, Lajamanu, Wave Hill, Newry, Daguragu.
6 – Barkly: Tennant Creek, Elliott, Cresswell Downs, Barrow Creek, Ali Curung, Alpurrurulam, Ampilatwatja, Burnett Downs.
7 – Simpson: Alice Springs, Jervois, Ti Tree, Kulgera, Titjikala, Santa Teresa, Ross River, Arltunga, Engawala, Territory Grape Farm, Finke.
8 – Lasseter: Uluru / Yulara, Docker River, Curtin Springs, Watarrka, Hermannsburg, Papaya, Xulungurru, Mereenie, Areyonga, Kintore, Haasts Bluff.
9 – Tanami: Rabbit Flat, Yuendumu. 

 

There are a lot of conflicting boundaries for the Northern Territory, the above list seems to fit the most common and more importantly it follows the Bureau of Meteorology in which we are talking specifically about forecast districts. There is an exceptional amount of space between some towns in districts – for example, there are really only 2 towns in the Tanami district which covers 30%+ of Western NT area. This is why the NT is one of the more favourable regions to group. The Northern NT consists of the Darwin-Daly, Tiwi and Arnhem districts as well as any further districts North of and including the town of Katherine in the Carpentaria district. The North East consists of anywhere that borders the Gulf of Carpentaria Coastline while Southern NT areas include anywhere South of Tennant Creek which favours mostly the Simpson, Lasseter and Tanami districts.

The Northern Territory Districts according to BOM in relation to district forecasting.

 

Know Your District! (Northern Territory)2019-07-21T23:59:06+10:00
21 07, 2019

Know Your District! (Tasmania)

2019-07-21T20:30:11+10:00

When it comes to severe weather, regardless of the type of the scenario, one of the age old questions we receive on Higgins Storm Chasing, as well as any other weather page across the globe is ‘Will this affect me at x”. Generally ‘districts’ or much broader areas are labelled rather than specific towns. This is largely due to weather being unpredictable down to the nearest town and weather systems being quite large which means their potential is spread over hundreds of kilometres. Its also due to there sometimes being so many town, that the list would be far too long for it to be beneficial. Some setups or systems are easier to predict than others, but even in those situations, districts or parts of a district (i.e Southern TAS, Western TAS, North West TAS) are labelled. 

Tasmania has 11 forecast districts according to the Bureau of Meteorology. These districts along with SOME of their respective towns include (Obviously not all towns are named, but if you recognise a nearby town, then chances are you are included in that district):
1 – Furneaux Islands: Whitemark, Long Island, Puncheon Island, Big Green Island, Badger Island, Mount Chappell Island, Little Dog Island, Tin Kettle Island, Clarke Island, Preservation Island, Cape Bareen Island, Loccota, Blue Rocks, Leeka, Killiecrankie, Wingaroo, Inner Sister Island, Outer Sister Island, Lackrana
2 – North East: Bridport, Scottsdale, Forester, Boobyalla, Waterhouse, Cape Portland, Eddystone, BinalongN Bay, Alberton, Herrick, Pyengena
3 – East Coast: St  Marys, St Helens, Scamander, Seymour, Bicheno, Swansea, Fingal, Buckland, Nugent, Triabunna, Coles Bay, Swanston, Lake Leake, Friendly Beaches, Dolphin Sands, Cranbrook, Avoca.
4 – Central North: Launceston, Cressy, George Town, Beaconsfield, Westbury, Melbourne, Bracknell, Holwell, Longford, Lilydale, Legana.
5 – Midlands: Ross, Oatlands, Campbell Town, Kempton, Tunbridge, Stonor, Bagdad, Kempton, Lemont, Jericho, Interlaken. 

6 – South East: Hobart, Kingston, Lauderdale, Sorell, Campania, Bridgewater, Fern Tree, Mt Wellington, Cygnet, Geeveston, Huonville, Franklin, Judbury, Southport, Dover, Old Beach, Clifton Beach, Cape Bruny, Port Arthur, Leslie Vale, Deep Bay, Eggs and Bacon Bay, Sandford, Richmond, Pontville, Dodges Ferry, Forcett, Grove, Collinsvale.
7 – Upper Derwent Valley: New Norfolk, Broadmarsh, Hamilton, Ouse, Strickland, Bradys Marsh, Ellendale, Uxbridge, Westerway, Hollow Tree, Karanja, Bushy Park, Plenty, Bothwell, Osterley, Moogara, Glenfern, Mount Lloyd. 
8 – Central Plateau: Liawenee, Lake St Clair, Cradle Valley, Bothwell, Cradle Mountain, Tarraleah, Mayberry, Miena, Breona, London Lakes, Bronte Park, Mersey Forest, Walls of Jerusalem, Lorinna, Meander. 
9 – Western: Strahan, Queenstown, Rosebery, Melaleuca, Strathgordon, Scotts Peak, Zeehan, Luina, Waratah, Maatsuyker Island, Lake Gordon, Gormanston, Renison Bell, Macquarie heads, Elliott Bay. 
10 – North West Coast: Smithton, Ulverstone, Wynyard, Burnie, Deloraine, Devonport, Yolla, Luncheon Hill, Marrawah, Woolnorth, Sheffield, Wilmot, Hampshire, Abbotsham, Melrose, Stoodley, Floerdale, Sistsr Beach, Edcumbe Beach, Wiltshire, Forest. 
11 – King Island: Currie, Lymbwood, Pearshape, Grassy, Surprise Bay, Sea Elephant, Naracoopa, Reeker, Dungaree, Wickham, Egg Lagoon.

Tasmania is a unique State in that most districts are generally named after their location. However.. in some circumstances we will group the Western half of the State together which will include the West Coast, North West, King Island, Western parts of the Central Plateau. The Central Plateau can sometimes be also named the “Central Highlands” when referring to snow, and this will also incorporate the Midlands district, Southern parts of the Central North (South of Launceston) and the Upper Derwent Valley. The South East in a general sense may include the East Coast (Southern parts of the it), Southern parts of the West Coast, the South East district and parts of the Upper Derwent Valley as well as any offshore Islands.

Outline of the Tasmania South East District including Hobart Metropolitan area with many town names included. Base image via Weatherzone

 

Know Your District! (Tasmania)2019-07-21T20:30:11+10:00
21 07, 2019

Know Your District! (South Australia)

2019-07-21T21:00:57+10:00

When it comes to severe weather, regardless of the type of the scenario, one of the age old questions we receive on Higgins Storm Chasing, as well as any other weather page across the globe is ‘Will this affect me at x”. Generally ‘districts’ or much broader areas are labelled rather than specific towns. This is largely due to weather being unpredictable down to the nearest town and weather systems being quite large which means their potential is spread over hundreds of kilometres. Its also due to there sometimes being so many town, that the list would be far too long for it to be beneficial. Some setups or systems are easier to predict than others, but even in those situations, districts or parts of a district (i.e Northern SA, South Eastern SA, Western SA) are labelled. 

 

 

South Australia has 15 forecast districts according to the Bureau of Meteorology. These districts along with SOME of their respective towns include (Obviously not all towns are named, but if you recognise a nearby town, then chances are you are included in that district):
1 – Adelaide Metropolitan: Adelaide, Elizabeth, Glenelg, Noarlunga, Mount Barker, Edinburgh, Mount Crawford, Salisbury, Grange, North Have, Buckland Park, Tea Tree Gully.
2 – Mount Lofty Ranges: Parawa, Stirling, Strathalbyn, Nuriootpa, Victor Harbor, Mount Lofty, Sellicks Beach, Williamstown, Gawler, Coromandel Valley, Bridgewater, Mount Compass, Harrogate, Palmer, Mount Pleasant, Eden Valley, Gawler.
3 – Yorke Peninsula: Kadina, Minlaton, Stenhouse Bay, Edithburgh, Maitland, Cape Willoughby, Warooka, Bute, Bluff Beach, Ardrossan, Kulpara, Port Broughton. 
4 – Kangaroo Island: Kingscote, Parndana, Cuttlefish Bay, Seal Bay, Gosse, Cassini, North Cape, Stokes Bay, Cape Borda, Flinders Chase, Karatta.
5 – Upper South East: Keith, Bordertown, Meningie, Salt Creek, Willalooka, Coonalpyn. 
6 – Lower South East: Robe, Coonawarra, Naracoorte, Mount Gambier, Padthaway, Cape Jaffa, Penola, Lucinda, Beachport.

 

7 – Murraylands: Lameroo, Karoonda, Murray Bridge, Varuna, Coomandook, Milang, Asheville, Mannum, Swan Reach, Alawoona. 
8 – Riverland: Renmark, Morgan, Waikerie, Blanchetown, Wunkar, Loxton, Berri,
9 – Mid North: Roseworthy, Clare, Jamestown, Port Pirie, Snowtown, Roverstown, Eudunda, Kaunda, Balaclava, Spalding, Crystal Brook, Mallala, Angle Vale.
10 – Flinders: Hawker, Port Augusta, Melrose, Peterborough, Orroroo, Carrieton, Blinman.
11 – West Coast: Ceduna, Nullarbor, Cook, Streaky Bay, Wudinna, Yalata, Lock, Port Kenny, Elliston, Minima.
12 – Eastern Eyre Peninsula: Kimba, Cleve, Whyalla, Contra, Iron Baron, Cowell, Arno Bay, Rudall, 
13 – Lower Eyre Peninsula: Cummins, Coffin Bay, Port Lincoln, Butler, Port Neill, Tumby Bay, Karkoo.
14 – North West Pastoral: Woomera, Roxby Downs, Tarcoola, Coober Pedy, Ernabella, Marla, Oak Valley, Iron Knob, Nonning, 
15 – North East Pastoral: Moomba, Marree, Oodnadatta, Leigh Creek, Yunta, Innamincka, Mingary, Manna Hill, Beltana, Farina, Merty Merty.

 

 

Often districts are grouped into larger categories. Some examples of this happening in South Australian areas – ‘Northern’ which consists of both Pastoral districts as well as ares North of Port Augusta. ‘Western’ which includes the West Coast, North West Pastoral and Western parts of the Eyre Peninsula. South Eastern, which includes the Lower & Upper South East, Murraylands and any further areas East and South of the Mt Lofty Ranges. Due to the vastness of rural South Australia, these groupings are used far more often than in some other States, as there are large areas between some towns so its far easier to group them. 

 

Outline of the Adelaide Metropolitan district with many town names included. Base image via Weatherzone

 

Know Your District! (South Australia)2019-07-21T21:00:57+10:00
21 07, 2019

Know Your District! (Victoria)

2019-07-21T21:01:03+10:00

When it comes to severe weather, regardless of the type of the scenario, one of the age old questions we receive on Higgins Storm Chasing, as well as any other weather page across the globe is ‘Will this affect me at x”. Generally ‘districts’ or much broader areas are labelled rather than specific towns. This is largely due to weather being unpredictable down to the nearest town and weather systems being quite large which means their potential is spread over hundreds of kilometres. Its also due to there sometimes being so many town, that the list would be far too long for it to be beneficial. Some setups or systems are easier to predict than others, but even in those situations, districts or parts of a district (i.e Coastal parts of VIC or areas West of the Ranges) are labelled. 

 

 

Victoria has 9 forecast districts according to the Bureau of Meteorology. These districts along with SOME of their respective towns include (Obviously not all towns are named, but if you recognise a nearby town, then chances are you are included in that district):
1 – Mallee: Mildura, Swan Hill, Ouyen, Hopetoun, Donald, Charlton, Berriwillock, Cowangie, Kerang, Manangatang, Robinvale, Tooleybuc, Cohuna, Red Cliffs, Liparoo, Walpeup
2 – Wimmera: Horsham, Nhill, Edenhope, St Arnaud, Stawell, Warracknabeal, Rainbow, Yanac, Mockinya, Paradise, Kellalac, The Grampians, Longerenong, Pyrenees, Ben Nevis, Kanagulk, Halls Gap.
3 – Northern Country: Bendigo, Echuca, Shepparton, Rochester, Kyabram, Cobram, Euroa, Heathcote, Wedderbum, Pyramid Hill, Barraport, Femihurst, Inglewood, Tatura, Yarrawonga, Mulwala. 
4 – North East: Mount Buller, Mount Hotham, Falls Creek, Darmouth, Dinner Plain, Mansfield, Benalla, Beechworth, Corowa, Wangaratta, Wodonga, Corryong, Rutherglen, Myrtelford.
5 – East Gippsland: Bairnsdale, Lakes Entrance, Mallacoota, Orbost, Point Hicks, Mount Nowa Nowa, Gelantipy, Combienbar, Paynesville, Glenaladale, Bullumwaal, Omeo, Cabbage Tree Creek, Bemm River, Cann River. 

 

Central Victoria highlighted, including Greater Melbourne. Base image via Weatherzone

 

6 – West & South Gippsland: Latrobe Valley, Sale, Rawson, Moe, Churchill, Traralgon, Yarram, Leongatha, Foster, Yanakie, Seaspray, Loch Sport, Mt Moornapa. 
7 – Central (includes Melbourne Metropolitan): Melbourne City, Essendon, Geelong, Ballarat, Kyneton, Meredith, Torquay, Lorne, Ocean Grove, Frankston, Sunbury, Doreen, Healesville, Brighton, Port Phillip Bay, Lara, Creswick, Daylesford, Bacchus Marsh, Melton, Glen Waverley, Lancefield, Craigieburn, Wonga Park, Coldstream, Beaconsfield, Emerald, Pakenham, Koo Wee Rup, Coronet Bay, Cape Paterson, Wonthaggi, Hastings, Mornington, Sorrento.
8 – North Central: Maryborough, Castlemaine, Dunolly, Yea, Kilmore, Alexandra, Seymour, Wallan, Marysville, Flowerdale, Bradford, Eildon, Buxton. 
9 – South West: Warrnambool, Colac, Hamilton, Dartmoor, Portland, Port Fairy, Mortlake, Casterton, Cape Otway, Ararat, Beaufort, Skipton, Lismore, Camperdown, Dundonnell, Terang, Avoca. 

 

 

Often districts are grouped into larger categories. Some examples of this happening in Victoria area – ‘Inland’ which consists of all areas North of Greater Melbourne and West of the Victoria Alpine region. ‘Western’ which consists of areas West of Greater Melbourne and Yarrawonga. ‘Eastern’ which consists of the Gippsland and North East (Victorian Alps) of the State. Coastal which consists of the Gippsland, South West and Greater Melbourne districts. 

 

Broader ‘combined’ districts across VIC – coloured text matches colour coded boxes. Note: Boxes are overlapping into SA & NSW (those States aren’t included in this). Base image via Weatherzone

 

Know Your District! (Victoria)2019-07-21T21:01:03+10:00
20 07, 2019

Mornings Forecast To Slowly Warm

2019-07-20T17:27:48+10:00

Temperatures are expected to finally start climbing across QLD and NSW as a large high pressure systems moves East into the Pacific Ocean, marking a change in wind patterns. Above image – OCF Forecast Minimums for Sunday across SEQ & NENSW.

CLICK HERE TO GAIN ACCESS TO HIGH DETAIL,
HIGHLY ACCURATE FORECASTS & MAPS.

A large high pressure system which has been responsible for producing significantly colder than normal temperatures across elevated parts of NSW including NENSW and widespread parts of Southern and South East QLD… even Central QLD… is expected to finally move East and start to head out to sea over the Pacific Ocean and towards New Zealand. This high has lead to continuous clear skies across QLD & NSW with light winds aiding in the temperature plummeting overnight. 

Forecast winds for Sunday morning showing an Inland trough (purple line) with North to North West winds over QLD & NSW, and an onshore flow over Eastern QLD. Image via Windy.

 

 

During the past 7-8 nights we have seen some significant stats accumulate. Ipswich saw 7 consecutive nights of 0ºc or lower, for the first time since 2012. Glen Innes recorded a year-low of -12.3ºc which was also the coldest temperature in 11 years for the town. Tenterfield saw -9.1ºc which was also the coldest temperature in 11 years. Applethorpe with -6.1ºc had its coldest morning in 8 years. 4 of the past 7 mornings have been below -8ºc for Glen Innes, something that is quite unusual as the severely cold morning’s are normally 1 off occurrences. Armidale has had 4 of its past 5 mornings below -5ºc. Dalby was another town that saw a week straight of below freezing mornings too.

Forecast minimums and frost potential via OCF / BSCH for Sunday morning across NSW

So what has changed now? The high as it moves East will cause winds to veer more North to North Westerly across the Eastern half of the country, feeding into an Inland trough. These winds are typically warmer. Clear skies and naturally cooler atmospheric conditions will keep temperatures “cold” or “near normal” for this time of year, but with the lack of a Southerly influence.. overnight minimums may struggle to plummet. As a result of this, frost is only “possible” across the Great Diving Range & Southern Inland QLD for Sunday morning.

Forecast minimums and frost potential via OCF / BSCH for Sunday morning across QLD

 

Mornings Forecast To Slowly Warm2019-07-20T17:27:48+10:00
17 07, 2019

Thursday: Another Cold Start For SEQLD & NENSW

2019-07-17T16:49:35+10:00

South East QLD, Southern Inland QLD, Northern & North East NSW are expected to see yet another cold start to the day on Thursday as temperatures remain below to well below average across the region. Above image: OCF Forecast Minimums with a possible frost area circled.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL FORECAST DETAILS AND ACCESS TO HIGH DETAIL MAPPING.


Some places are now seeing a run of cold mornings that hasn’t been felt in a while – for Winter lovers, thats fantastic, for Winter haters its not that great. Glen Innes has now recorded -5ºc or colder, including 3 mornings below -8ºc in the past 8 days. Stanthorpe has recorded back to back -6ºc mornings. Warwick saw -5ºc in July for the first time in 5 years… with several locations recorded 4 consecutive mornings below freezing. Thursday morning is expected to be no different, with multiple locations dropping below freezing yet again. Thursday however should be fractionally warmer as winds increase across Inland areas, and this may stop locations from “actually” recording -5 to -10ºc like previous mornings, but -2 or -3ºc may feel more like -8ºc with a 50km/h breeze. So the actual temperature may be slightly warmer, but the feels like temp will be the same. The wind will prevent many locations from recording frost, with conditions being too windy for frost to settle… for those in the hollows though where some protection from the wind may occur, it could be a very icy start to the day.

Forecast winds during Thursday morning via EC / Windy. Yellow >40km/h, pink >60km/h.

 

 

Some forecast temperatures for Thursday morning: 
(QLD) Brisbane 9ºc, Ipswich 2ºc, Gold Coast 10ºc (closer to 1 or 2ºc around Canungra), Sunshine Coast 9ºc, Gatton 4ºc, Stanthorpe -3ºc, Warwick -2ºc, Toowoomba 3ºc, Dalby -1ºc, Roma -1ºc

(NSW) Glen Innes -5ºc, Armidale -2ºc, Tenterfield -2ºc, Inverell -1ºc, Guyra -3ºc, Lismore 4ºc, Casino 4ºc, Barraba -2ºc, Moree 1ºc, Ballina 6ºc.

 

Thursday: Another Cold Start For SEQLD & NENSW2019-07-17T16:49:35+10:00
17 07, 2019

Know Your District! (New South Wales & ACT)

2019-07-21T18:32:44+10:00

When it comes to severe weather, regardless of the type of the scenario, one of the age old questions we receive on Higgins Storm Chasing, as well as any other weather page across the globe is ‘Will this affect me at x”. Generally ‘districts’ or much broader areas are labelled rather than specific towns. This is largely due to weather being unpredictable down to the nearest town and weather systems being quite large which means their potential is spread over hundreds of kilometres. Its also due to there sometimes being so many town, that the list would be far too long for it to be beneficial. Some setups or systems are easier to predict than others, but even in those situations, districts or parts of district (i.e Coastal parts of the Northern Rivers and South East QLD Coast) are labelled. 

 

Outline of the Sydney Metropolitan district with many town names included. Base image via Weatherzone

 

NEW SOUTH WALES and the AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY includes 17 districts according to the Bureau of Meteorology. These districts along with SOME of their respective towns include (Obviously not all towns are named, but if you recognise a nearby town, then chances are you are included in that district):

 

1 – Northern Rivers: Lismore, Casino, Yamba, Evans Head, Grafton, Brooms Head, Maclean, Kyogle, Murwillumbah, Tweed Heads, Ocean Shores, Rappville, Coraki, Nymboida, Mullumbimby.
2 – Mid North Coast: Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Kempsey, South West Rocks, Taree, Gloucester, Wauchope, Nambucca Heads, Sawmill, Macksville. 
3 – Hunter: Newcastle, Singleton, Denman, Merriwa, Scone, Murrurundi, Cessnock, Gosford, Barrington Tops, Muswellbrook, Maitland.
4 – Northern Tablelands: Armidale, Inverell, Tenterfield, Guyra, Glen Innes, Ben Lomond, Walcha, Emmaville, Uralla, Ebor, Tingha, Woodenbong.
5 – Central Coast & Sydney Metropolitan: Sydney City, Penrith, Manly, Sutherland, Hornsby, Mona Vale, Campbelltown, Richmond, Parramatta, Blackown, Camden, Rockdale, Mulgoa, Cowan, Randwick, Epping, Quakers Hill, Terrey Hills, Bondi, Liverpool, Holsworthy.
6 – Illawarra: Wollongong, Helensburgh, Bowral, Moss Vale, Nowra St Georges Basin, Tahmoor, Appin, Albion Park, Kiama, Port Kembla.
7 – South Coast: Ulladulla, Montague Island, Bega, Gabo Island, Batemans Bay, Moruya, Bemboka, Towamba, Merimbula, Eden, Tuross Head

 


8 – Central Tablelands: Bathurst, Orange, Oberon, Lithgow, Crookwell, Mudgee, Cowra, Blayney, Shooters Hill, Katoomba, Fullerton, Portland, Blackheath, Blaxland, Kandos, Gulgong.
9 – Southern Tablelands: Goulburn, Yass, Bungendore, Braidwood, Captains Flat, Gunning, Nerriga, Murrumbateman, Krawarree, Kain, Wee Jasper, Taralga, Queanbeyan.
10 – Snowy Mountains: Cooma, Jindabyne, Bungarby, Nimmitabel, Bombala, Thredbo Village, Perisher, Perisher Valley, Charlotte Pass, Cabramurra, Adaminaby, Rhine Hills, Mt Kosciuszko 
11 – North West Slopes & Plains: Moree, Walgett, Gunnedah, Tamworth, Wee Waa, Gurley, Bullarah, Baradine, Quirindi, Weeis Creek, Barraba, Bingara, Warialda, North Star, Wallangra, Ashford, Bonshaw, Nundle, Burren Junction, Rowena, Mungindi, Come By Chance, Boomi, Collarenebri.
12 – Central West Slopes & Plains: Coonamble, Trangie, Dubbo, Peak Hill, Forbes, West Wyalong, Lake Cargelligo, Condoblin, Tottenham, Narromine, Girilambone, Coonabarabran, Mendooran, Dundeoo, Wellington, Parkes, Temora, Grenfell, Warren, Gilgandra, Quambone.
13 – South West Slopes & Plains: Young, Gundagai, Tumbarumba, Boorowa, Tumult, Cootamundra, 
14 – Riverina: Wagga Wagga, Griffith, Hay, Albury, Deniliquin, Narrandera, Junee, Culcaim, Finley, Maude, Conargo, Holbrook, Hillston, Merriwagga, Warbum, Darlington Point, Gunbar, Lockhart, Jerilderie, Coolamon, Barellan, Rankin Springs. 
15 – Lower Western: Broken Hill, Pooncarie, Menindee, Ivanhoe, Scotia, Balranald, Mildura East, Darrick, Oxley, Nymagee, Mulurulu, Lake Victoria.
16 – Upper Western: Bourke, Tibooburra, Cobar, White Cliffs, Wilcannia, Lightning Ridge, Hungerford, Brewarrina, Tilpa, Fowlers Gap, Milparinka, Smithville, Borrona Downs.
17 -Australian Capital Territory (ACT): Canberra, Brindabella Ranges, Mt Ginini, Kambah, Gordon, Hall, Naas, Tuggeranong, Tharwa, Tidbinbilla, Holt.

 

 

Often, districts can be grouped into larger categories. For example, “Inland” is classed by areas West of the Great Dividing Range, while “Coastal” districts are those that are East of the Great Dividing Range. Northern Inland NSW consists of the NW Slopes & Plains, parts of the Upper Western & Central West Slopes & Plains. Central Inland consists of the Central Tablenads, Central West Slopes & Plains and immediate surrounding areas. South East NSW includes the South Coast, Southern Tablelands, ACT, Snowy Mountains. North East NSW includes the Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast & Northern Tablelands… and yes, Canberra / the ACT is INCLUDED in South East NSW, Eastern, Southern NSW forecasts. The weather doesn’t magically stop at the ACT border, so even if the “ACT” isn’t specifically mentioned, it is included as if it were a district of South Eastern NSW. 

 

Outline of the Australian Capital Territory with many town names included. Base image via Weatherzone

 

Know Your District! (New South Wales & ACT)2019-07-21T18:32:44+10:00