Yet another extreme heatwave is forecast to sweep South-Eastern QLD and Central QLD this week, making this the third since New Year for 2017. This one is expected last at least 4 days with excessive prolonged heat, and at times humidity, baking the region.
During Wednesday, a surface trough is forecast to become established along or just East of the South-East QLD and Central Coast Ranges. This surface trough is forecast to draw in hot West to North-West winds towards the backside of it, and very warm and humid North-East winds on the Coastal side of it. These will combine with a hot air mass overhead to produce widespread temperatures of 5-10ºc above average.
During Thursday, a cool change is forecast to move up the South-East QLD and Wide Bay Coastline’s bringing some brief relief in the afternoon, but not before temperatures rapidly rise into the mid 30’s again. This cool change however is not expected to influence the Capricornia or inland regions a whole lot as temperatures remain baking.
Friday, and the surface trough is forecast to come back into play but this time a little further West. This will allow coastal regions to be slightly cooler (still sitting in the mid 30’s by the way) but unfortunately with those North to North-East winds cranking in… it’ll be very humid and feel a whole lot hotter than what it really is.
Saturday, the trough moves towards the Coast once again and allows those very hot winds to crank in over the entire South-East quarter of the State and potentially will allow Saturday to be the hottest day of the bunch with widespread maximums in excess of 38ºc. A cool change is once again likely to move up the Coast but may only reach the Sunshine Coast before midnight and Gympie by sunrise the next day.
Each day, thunderstorms are a chance, these have a chance of locally breaking the heat so that overnight minimums are somewhat bearable, but overnight humidity is expected to be ripe and still create sticky, uncomfortable conditions. This is once again a reminder to look after pets, the elderly, children, pregnant woman and those who are sick as they will suffer the easiest from heat stress.
The hot and very muggy conditions across South-East QLD, Central QLD and North-East NSW are expected to be broken on Saturday afternoon as thunderstorms and rain areas impact those regions. There is the potential for some very good falls as this rain continues into Sunday.
SATURDAY: A surface trough is expected to be located through South-East QLD extending up the Central Coast Ranges. Another surface trough is expected to be located over Southern Inland QLD stretching towards Western QLD. The combination of these 2 is expected to produce a hot and very humid environment which is favourable for thunderstorm development. Across the Darling Downs, Central Highlands, Coalfields and parts of the Warrego and Maranoa + Northern Rivers and Tablelands of NSW, rain areas are likely to develop during the afternoon and continue overnight producing widespread good falls. Scattered to widespread falls of 15-20mm+ are likely, however isolated falls around the Border Ranges and Central Highlands may exceed 50mm.
SUNDAY: A surface low is expected to develop off the North-East NSW Coast while the entire system shifts further East. This low will likely amplify any thunderstorms or rain areas, producing locally heavier falls – mainly around Southern SEQ and the Border Ranges. Falls of 50mm+ are possible on Sunday through these areas which are notorious for picking up very good rainfall. Scattered to widespread falls alf 25mm+ are likely across the Central Highlands, Capricornia, Wide Bay and South-East Coast with isolated falls of 50mm+ possible.
Overall this should allow much of the South-East quarter of QLD to see widespread good falls of 25mm+ which has been long overdue. The Central Highlands look to pick up a double hit allowing for scattered falls of 50mm+ to become more likely, while the Border Ranges should see 50mm+ and may see 100mm+. Keep in mind, thunderstorms may produce locally heavier falls. Localised flash flooding cant be ruled out.
Much of Queensland is about to endure a wet weekend as a tropical flow covers all but the South-West of the State producing rain areas and thunderstorms. Above image via Tropicaltidbits
On Saturday, a trough is forecast to move into Southern and South-West Queensland. This trough is expected to keep the Far South and South-West dry, but it’s also likely to combine with another trough located West of the Ranges through South-East, Central and Northern Inland QLD. The combination is likely to channel tropical moisture from both the Coral Sea and Gulf of Carpentaria through North-West, Northern Inland, Central Inland and the Darling Downs producing widespread showers, rain areas and thunderstorms. Falls of 25-50mm are likely, especially over the Darling Downs and Central districts where thunderstorms are likely to boost totals. Isolated falls of 50mm+ are forecast to occur also and may cause localised flash flooding.
On Sunday, a surface trough is forecast to shift North-East and be located between the Darling Downs and Northern/Central Inland QLD. The other surface trough is expected to do the same and be located over the Northern and Central Ranges. A low pressure system is expected to develop over Inland QLD which will help amplify rainfall, while a surface low is also expected to develop offshore from NENSW which will help increase rainfall over South-East QLD.
Showers and rain periods with isolated to scattered storms are likely all day across South-East QLD, Wide Bay and the Capricornia producing widespread falls of 15-40mm. Isolated falls of 50mm+. Falls of up to 100mm+ can’t be ruled out around the Border Ranges (Upper Springbrook area) across the 2 days. Widespread falls of 20-50mm are likely over Central and Northern Inland districts also with 2 day totals now exceeding 50mm becoming likely and some falls of up to 100mm expected across the 2 days. Again, thunderstorms will be lingering around and helping to boost localised rainfall totals.
This rainfall is certainly needed as many inland regions have failed to see any notable rainfall for a number of weeks at least. These kinds of falls could exceed monthly or even Summer averages in just 2 days!
What is being dubbed as a ‘once in ten year Summer storm’ is forecast to hit South Australia tonight bringing heavy rain, flash flooding and damaging winds to large parts of the State. Above image ‘Rainfall forecast’ via OCF/BSCH
During Thursday afternoon, a frontal system is forecast to be located over South-East WA. During Thursday evening this front is forecast to move into Western SA and during the night its likely to move North-East to cover all of the State except for the Far North-East. Along this system, thunderstorms are likely to develop as hot temperatures combine with cooler more moist air from the Bight. Behind the system, heavy rain is likely to be generated as a constant moisture flow feeds in off the Bight and over land.
The kind of rainfall which is forecast to hit, especially areas such as the West Coast and Eyre Peninsula’s (both Lower and Eastern) is expected to be widespread falls of 25-50mm and isolated falls of up to 100mm. This kind of rainfall is typically only seen on a 1 in 10 year basis. Areas such as the North-West Pastoral, Mount Lofty Ranges, Mid North and Flinders are also expected to see heavy rainfall in the early hours of Friday with falls of 10-30mm widespread and isolated falls to 50mm not ruled out, falls in excess of 50mm are likely over the Mount Lofty Ranges.
Strong to damaging wind gusts of 60-90km/h are likely to accompany this system which may bring down some trees and cut power to homes. This system should also be responsible for bringing much cooler conditions to the State for the next few days.
A severe weather warning for heavy rain and damaging winds is currently active for this event, while a flood watch for localised road inundation, localised flash flooding and minor creek/river flooding is also active.
Over the next 4 days, thunderstorms are expected to make a comeback to North-East NSW, South-East QLD, Southern Inland QLD and parts of Central QLD. This is all being brought on by the return also of an extreme heatwave. The very hot conditions caused by the heatwave are likely to interact with enough moisture to trigger widespread instability across the above mentioned regions on each day. This should lead to conditions becoming favourable for some thunderstorm, and severe thunderstorm, development.
There is a catch though.. each given day is also throwing multiple issues into the mix which will severely hinder some areas from seeing storms (especially along the Coastal fringe). The biggest catch is a large cap which is requiring very high temperatures and good humidity to break – temperatures the Coast is failing to see. Another is poor steering – the way the storms move. The steering winds are both weak and on Thursday theres also the addition of steering winds moving from South to North over SEQ which means storms won’t track towards the Coastline. A lack of surface trough also doesn’t help thunderstorm chances as organisation and duration will be average – storms could just go up and come down straight away.
Thursday is expected to see activity focused over North-East NSW with some severe cells likely. These storms may also impact Southern parts of SEQ. Friday, again North-East NSW is the location to be for the better activity with the entire South-East corner of QLD seeing some potential also. Saturday and severe storms are once again likely across NENSW and now also into SEQ and parts of Central QLD. Sunday the entire South-East corner of QLD is under potential. Heavy rain looks to be the biggest threat on each day, with locally good falls expected under storms.
Northern Inland NSW is about to feel the full effects of this heatwave, with temperatures reaching the high 40’s!!
A heat trough is expected to be located over the region during Wednesday and into Thursday before shifting and weakening on Friday but remaining at least in the vicinity where the effects will be maximised. This heat trough is combining with an incredibly warm air mass above the region to draw in as much heat as possible leading to temperatures reaching the mid to high 40’s across the Wednesday to Friday block.
On Wednesday, a surface trough is likely to aid Sydney and the Hunter/Central Coast in reaching the high 30’s / low 40’s, but across Northern Inland NSW widespread temperatures are likely to exceed 40ºc with areas across the NW Slopes and Plains and North-West corner likely to reach 44ºc. Bourke is heading for a top of 45-46ºc.
After a warm night with temps hovering around the 27-30ºc, Thursday is expected to be just as warm with maximums widespread above 40ºc and locations such as Bourke heading for 44ºc+. Thursday out of the 3 days is expected to be the coolest (if you can call 44ºc cool).
Another very warm night with maximums failing to drop below 30ºc is expected to make way for an absolute scorcher on Friday. Virtually ALL of Inland NSW is expected to see 40ºc+, areas such as the Central Coast and Hunter are also going to bake under 40ºc temps. Virtually the entire North-West corner of the State is going for 44ºc+ with areas like Boukre and Wilcannia heading for 46 to possibly 48ºc!!!
These conditions of prolonged very extreme heat are a reminder to take care under these conditions, with many farmers in country NSW its advised to avoid strenuous activity during peak heating, drink PLENTY of water and look after those around you – especially the elderly, young, sick, pregnant and pets/animals as they are all more at risk of heat stress.
South-East QLD and North-East NSW are about to enter another round of extreme heat. A warm air mass is forecast to move overhead and combine with a series of troughs to produce significant heating across South-East QLD and North-East NSW specifically. Above image: Maximums temperatures for Saturday via OCF/BSCH for SEQ and NENSW
Models are predicting the proper heat to begin on Wednesday with temperatures likely reaching the mid 30’s across both regions, and the high 30’s across Northern NSW. Thursday the roles are reversed with mid 30’s across the board and high 30’s in Inland parts of SEQ. Friday there is a slight lull in temperatures due to a cool change moving through during Thursday evening, but Saturday is expected to be the pick of the bunch with numerous places likely to exceed 40ºc (Casino, Beaudesert, Boonah, Gatton, Ipswich (possibly)) to name a few, while the remainder climb into mid 30’s. Very warm conditions are likely to remain in place on Sunday, but a vigorous cool change should limit heating.
This increase in heating across the region and the addition of a trough drawing in moisture is likely to trigger thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening each day. Thankfully for those who receive storms, overnight temperatures will be tolerable, but for those who don’t it could take a bit of time to cool down. Minimums overall are likely to remain in the low to mid 20’s for much of the night before rapidly increasing the following morning once the sun comes up.
Heat stress at times will be an issue, and its a timely reminder to slip slop slap (especially over the weekend when families have time to be out in the sun). Drink plenty of water. Look after the elderly, young, pregnant and animals/pets as they are the most at risk of heat stress, and avoid strenuous activity during the middle of the day.
Southern Inland QLD is about to experience a blast of extreme heat. A heat trough is forecast to become firmly established over Northern Inland NSW and South-West QLD over the Wednesday and drift very slowly towards the East across Thursday and Friday. This heat trough is expected to produce stifling (extreme heatwave) conditions across Northern NSW, but more specifically (for this blog) Southern Inland and South-West QLD.
On Wednesday, areas South of Boulia / Charleville and West of Goondiwindi are locked in for 40ºc+ with some areas likely to see 44-46ºc! This is likely to be followed by a stifling night across the region with minimums unlikely to drop below 30ºc in the far South-West of QLD.
Thursday, and temperatures are even hotter. Widespread maximums over Southern Inland, South-West and Central Inland QLD are likely to top more than 40ºc with areas in the South-West likely to see at least 45ºc if not hotter! This will be followed again by another night of relentless heat where Thargomindah may not drop below 35ºc (forecast for 34ºc minimum).
Friday… same area, same temperatures. Widespread 40ºc+ over Southern/Central Inland and South-West QLD with maximums nudging the mid 40’s again over South-West regions. Birdsville, Thargomindah, Cunnamulla, Ballera, Quilpie are all likely to see 44ºc (just to name a few), with some of these locations potentially reaching 45 or 46ºc again. Followed yet again by a mid-30ºc night where areas such as Thargomindah and that Far South-West corner are likely to stay above 35ºc for most of the night.
Saturday should be the last day of the relentless heat with maximums backing off to around 40-43ºc through Southern and South-West QLD, 37-40ºc over Central Inland. This is due to a trough moving through which is likely to generate some thunderstorm activity and also bring cooler winds in the wake of it.
While these kinds of temperatures aren’t foreign to these regions of Queensland. Their prolonged nature and consistency is uncommon in the grand scheme of things, thats why extreme heatwave criteria has been met. Its once again a reminder that during periods of prolonged uncommon heat that people be aware of the conditions and look after themselves.
Inland parts of Australia, most notably South-West QLD, North-West NSW and North-East SA are about to bake under what is technically a heatwave – even by their standards.
A heat trough is forecast to park itself over Central Australia for the next week, roughly stretching from Inland Western Australia, through Northern South Australia and into New South Wales. This heat trough is expected to help not only maximum temperatures skyrocket up to 6-8ºc above average, but also minimums are set to do the same.
The real heat is expected to start on Monday in North-East South Australia and only marginally creep into South-West QLD. Maximums are likely to reach the mid 40’s over North-East SA and the low to mid 40’s into QLD. This will lead to a hot start on Tuesday with minimums unlikely to drop below 30 and stay in the mid 30’s most of the night. Both regions are then likely to push into the mid 40’s with areas such as Birdsville heading for 45ºc and Moomba/Oodnadatta potentially seeing 46 or 47ºc. A repeat on Wednesday and Thursday is likely with Thursday potentially becoming more widespread with several locations heading for 45ºc and some possibly up to around 48ºc. Overnight minimums don’t drop off, some places may struggle to drop below 35ºc all night.
On Friday, the heat is expected to remain but a cool change should move through, aided by thunderstorms to bring relief to South Australia mainly. Maximums are expected to reach 46-49ºc over the North-East with Birdsville possibly heading for 46 or 47ºc. Northern NSW not much cooler. Minimums around Oodnadatta are UNLIKELY to drop 35ºc on Friday morning!! Saturday gives Birdsville one last crack at potentially a 5th straight 45ºc day as the heatwave engulfs Southern/Central QLD.