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21 08, 2019

Dangerous Surf Conditions Forecast To Impact NSW

2019-08-21T16:48:06+10:00

A very large and powerful surf is expected to develop along the NSW Coast during Thursday leading to some beach erosion and dangerous beach conditions! Above image via Windy showing wave heights during the afternoon (red 4m+, pink 5m+, orange 6m+ white 8m+).

 

A very large and powerful surf is expected to develop along the Southern NSW Coast during the morning. Wave heights are expected to increase during the late morning and into the early afternoon across the Central Coast between Newcastle and Wollongong before increasing further across the Northern Coastal areas between Newcastle and the QLD Border during the evening and early night. Wave heights are expected to exceed 5m in many locations and potentially peak at around 7-8m for some areas, not including any rogue waves which could exceed 10m. These kinds of waves, whilst not overly rare for the NSW Coast during Winter.. are certainly dangerous though and this could lead to not only severe beach erosion for some areas that are exposed to the waves, but also become treacherous for anyone venturing into the water.

Wind Gusts during Thursday afternoon via Windy

 

 

The reason why these waves are expected to develop is due to a strong low pressure system (979hpa) over near New Zealand interacting with a high pressure system (1028hpa) over Eastern Australia. The tight pressure gradient over the Tasman Sea is expected to coincide with strong to damaging South to South West winds impacting Coastal areas of NSW behind a cool change. As the change moves North during the day, the winds will continue to increase through any areas it moves through. This combination of pressure gradient and strong to damaging winds will be enough to produce dangerous sea conditions in the form of damaging gales (120-140km/h offshore, 70-100km/h over the exposed Coast) and powerful waves (5-7/8m, rogue waves up to 10m).

NSW Pressure Map and wave map showing powerful waves developing between a tightened pressure gradient between NZ and Eastern AUS. Image via Windy

 

Dangerous Surf Conditions Forecast To Impact NSW2019-08-21T16:48:06+10:00
19 08, 2019

Heavy Rain and Snow to Slam Tasmania!

2019-08-19T02:11:28+10:00

Tasmania is potentially seeing some of its best rainfall of Winter across the next few days with falls of 100-200mm being forecast across most models, and heavy snow being possible over the Central Highlands! Above image – 3-4 day rainfall accumulations (Euro model) via weather.us

 

A deep onshore West to South West flow is forecast to dominate Tasmania during the first half of the week (being Monday to Thursday). This onshore flow is expected to combine with some upper level support to generate widespread showers and rain areas across the Western half of the State as well as further scattered showers and sporadic rain periods over the Eastern half of the State. These rain periods are expected to remain constant and accumulate over the course of several days.

Forecast rainfall via OCF for Monday alone showing global model average of 50mm+ (conservative) across Western TAS. Image via BSCH.

 

 

Monday is looking the best for rainfall with models focused on 50-100mm being widespread across the Western half of the State and isolated higher falls of 100mm+ being possible. Tuesday is looking at widespread falls of 25-50mm with isolated to scattered falls in the 75mm+ range. Wednesday should see lighter falls again, but by this stage grand totals of 100-200mm are likely to have fallen across the majority of the Western half of TAS and lighter falls of 25-50mm across the Eastern half. These kids of falls, especially across Western TAS will have the ability to produce minor to moderate river and creek flooding along with areas of flash flooding given short term heavy falls are possible as well. 

Across the Central Highlands, these rain periods are expected to mostly fall as snow and this is expected to produce 3-4 day totals of 50-80cm across the region. Snow levels should stay elevated as the upper level trough remains fairly stock standard for this time of year, but the consistency will allow for snow to be generated over an extensive period time, featuring bursts of heavier snow or even blizzard conditions when combine with strong winds of 70km/h+. 

 

While this weather pattern isn’t uncommon for this time of year, Eastern parts of TAS havent really seen any truly beneficial rain this Winter and this is certainly shaping up to be some of the heavier falls for both snow and rain across the Western and Central districts for Winter so far.

Forecast snowfall totals across TAS via Windy.

 

Heavy Rain and Snow to Slam Tasmania!2019-08-19T02:11:28+10:00
9 08, 2019

Frozen Temperatures Hitting NSW, VIC & ACT HARD!

2019-08-09T00:42:51+10:00

Winter is about to turn itself up a notch over NSW, VIC and the ACT with frigid temperatures – even for Winter standards! Above image – Temperature anomaly for Sunday showing temperatures WAYYYYY below average (dark blue 5 to 10ºc below average, purple is 10ºc+ below average) – Image via Tropicaltidbits.

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Its been cool and cold in some areas up until now with the start of the event, but across Friday, the weekend and into early next week – temperatures are about to plummet in a big way with most areas seeing their coldest temperatures of Winter so far. This is all being brought on by the combination of a very cold, polar airmass moving directly over the region, showers / rain periods and snow and strong to damaging gales that will likely remain constant across the entire outlook period of Friday to early Monday. 

Strong (pink colouring) and damaging (blue colouring) winds impacting the entirety of VIC, NSW, ACT across the weekend. Image via Windy.

 

 

The coldest temperatures of course will be across the Snowy Mountains. Thredbo is going for a maximum of -5ºc (yes minus) across Friday and Saturday with Sunday being fractionally warmer at -3ºc. Minimums for the area will be around -7ºc and the wind chill could be closer to -20ºc! Mount Hotham in VIC is also looking at minimum of -7 or -8ºc with maximums of -4ºc. 

Further North, Canberra is expected to only reach 8ºc across Friday, Saturday and 10ºc Sunday – even these temperatures may be a struggle to reach if precipitation remains constant. Overnight minimums of 1ºc or less will mean that snow is possible each night as long as there is precip. Melbourne is expected to struggle to double digits across the 3 main days as well. Ballarat may only get to around 6 or 7ºc as well on Friday and Saturday. 

 

Further North again, the Central Tablelands will mimic what the normal Snowy Mountains are like. Oberon is going for just 2ºc as a max on Saturday and 3ºc on Sunday – roughly 8-9ºc below average. Bathurst will struggle to 6ºc. Orange is only expecting to reach 3ºc on Saturday and Sunday (8ºc below average). On Sunday, Guyra is heading for just 4ºc as a max, Glen Innes and Armidale a freezing 6ºc – this is around 8-9ºc below average. Even across the Central Coast – Sydney and Newcastle are only heading for the mid-teens which is below average for Winter standards. 

Widespread strong to damaging winds of 70-100km/h will make conditions feel even colder with many areas looking at sub-zero degree feels like temperatures.

Forecast maximums for Sunday (coldest day) across the region. Image via OCF / BSCH

 

Frozen Temperatures Hitting NSW, VIC & ACT HARD!2019-08-09T00:42:51+10:00
9 08, 2019

Cold Blast Coming For QLD!

2019-08-09T00:47:55+10:00

After Spring or even Summer-like temperatures on Thursday across large parts of the State, the majority of QLD is expected to see a cold blast now which will send temperatures the other way and more like August or even colder than average for some areas in August. Above image showing the temperature anomaly (difference compared to normal) for Sunday with the majority of the State below to well below average (blue to dark blue colouring) – Image via Tropicaltidbits.

 

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The combination of a cold air mass aloft and strong South to South Westerly winds surging across the State will allow for temperatures to drop on Friday and across the weekend. During Friday, the cooling will be mostly limited to the Southern half of the State with areas like Boulia, Longreach and Emerald sitting near average and areas North of those towns being much warmer. Areas of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt are likely to remain below 20ºc.

 

South to South Westerly winds are likely to dominate the State and let the temperature plummet. Image via Windy for Saturday afternoon wind gusts.

 

 

During Saturday and Sunday, the winds will continue to pump across the State. This will allow for further cooling with the Granite Belt maybe not even reaching the teens (along with the potential for some snow at times). Southern parts of the State are likely to remain in the mid teens as well. While Northern districts will remain warm, they are expected to drop significantly compared to previous days and further cooling is likely in the coming days. Places like Townsville (25ºc), Cairns (25ºc) are expected to be near average or even 1-2ºc below average. Areas across Northern Inland QLD where averages are typically much higher, may feel the difference more with Richmond looking at 6ºc below average (22-23ºc forecast) and Mt Isa at 21ºc will be around 6-7ºc below average as well. 

 

Forecast maximums across the State for Sunday showing much cooler temperatures. Image via OCF / BSCH

 

 

Forecast maximums across the State for Friday showing cooler temperatures in the South and warm temperatures in the North. Image via OCF / BSCH

 

On top of the much cooler temperatures, the winds will be fiercely cold for QLD standards. Across the Darling Downs and Granite Belt it’ll feel more like 0ºc or even below freezing at times thanks to 50-70km/h winds combining with low temperatures. Across other areas of QLD, a 4-6ºc wind chill factor is likely and stronger wind chill factors are possible – so along the South East QLD Coast when its sitting on about 20ºc, it could feel more like 12-14ºc, maybe even less. 

Overnight minimums will also plummet across large parts of the State. While the winds will probably prevent frost from occurring, widespread areas could be in the low single digits or negatives during Sunday and Monday morning – Monday has a strong chance of some frost across Southern & Central QLD, maybe even into Northern Inland QLD, pending the wind strength. 

 

Forecast minimums for Monday morning across QLD showing widespread temperatures nearing 0ºc! Image via OCF / BSCH

 

Cold Blast Coming For QLD!2019-08-09T00:47:55+10:00
8 08, 2019

Multiple States Likely To Be Impacted By Dust

2019-08-08T02:48:31+10:00

Widespread raised dust, haze and possible dust storms are expected to impact large parts of NSW, Northern VIC, South Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland – possibly reaching the East Coast over the next several days. Above image – Dust mass via Windy for Friday.

 

Expansive strong winds are expected to sweep through South Australia and into New South Wales during Thursday, possibly even into South West QLD as well. These winds may reach damaging thresholds at times over elevated parts of SA, with most areas likely to see gusts of 40-60km/h being possible. These winds are expected to continue through QLD on Friday and further East into NSW as well. whilst the NT will receive the Southerly surge which will push them through Southern & Central districts. The combination of several drought stricken areas, along with strong winds, will likely cause dust to become raised and maybe even develop into some localised dust storms. While dust storms such as the ones seen over Summer probably aren’t expected (in terms of a graphic view), there is a very realistic chance that large expansive areas will be covered in haze for not just one, but possibly a few days as several rounds of winds lifting dust occur across Thursday, Friday, Saturday and maybe even Sunday. 

 

As stated, there is a chance that this haze could reach the Coast in a very weak raised dust manner. The only prevention of this is whether or not the dust becomes settled in amongst showers and snow across the NSW Ranges and QLD Ranges. Areas North of about Toowoomba in QLD where there is no rainfall forecast are the highest chance of seeing the dust reach the Coast on Friday and Saturday, but areas further South of Toowoomba have a big question mark over them for now. 

Winds across Friday via Windy. Pink >60km/h, blue / purple >90km/h (damaging thresholds).

 

Multiple States Likely To Be Impacted By Dust2019-08-08T02:48:31+10:00
7 08, 2019

Snow To Low Levels In Tasmania!

2019-08-07T15:38:26+10:00

Issued August 7th, 2019. A complex weather pattern between Thursday and Sunday is expected to deliver rain, storms, hail, damaging winds and snow to Tasmania with the majority, if not all, of the State experiencing some form of severe weather at some stage. Above image: Snow forecast via Windy.

 

 

Rain, Storms, Hail: Activity is expected to begin on Thursday as a large cold front linked to a strong low in the Bight moves across the State and combines with a small scale low pressure system to the North East of the State. This combination will combine with colder air aloft, whilst pumping increased moisture over the entire State. This is likely to result in some isolated storms moving across the State with hail and wind being the main threat, along with expansive areas of rain. This rain will be on and off from Thursday afternoon through to Friday afternoon. During Friday, a strong low pressure region is likely to intensify over the Tasman Sea, East of Tasmania. This will draw in a significant amount of moisture and combine that with freezing air aloft to produce further hail showers and continuous rain areas from late Friday through to early Sunday when activity becomes more scattered as the system moves away. The heaviest rain is expected to be over the South and East of the State where falls of 50-75mm are likely and localised higher falls are possible (orange shaded areas) and this includes Hobart. Moderate falls of 25mm+ are expected over Central districts and in a unique setup compared to normal, only light falls are expected over West and Northern areas. 

 

Forecast Rainfall for TAS via Windy – 50mm+ in orange.

 

 

Snow: As with all winter systems across Tasmania, snow is expected. Initially, on Thursday, snow is expected to around 700-800m across the Central Highlands and probably Mt Wellington. During Friday and Saturday as the colder air arrives – the snow level is expected to drop to a solid 400-500m with snow being possible down to 250-300m with any colder air that gets dragged down through downbursts. This level should then rise on Sunday to around 800m or higher again with the colder air moving away and moisture levels starting to fade. During the peak snow potential (Friday afternoon / night into Saturday morning), heavy snow is possible around the Mt Wellington Mountain area. Good snowfall is expected over the Central Highlands. Snow is even likely in the Hobart Hills which will include towns such as Collinsville, Glenlusk, Grove, Glenorchy, the Lenah Valley, Tolmans Hill, Mount Nelson, Ridgeway, New Town, West Moonah. On the other side of the river, places like Brighton, Honeywood, Richmond, Campania will also be seeing potential. Sleet is also expected in isolated bursts throughout Hobart City. This means that if you are in Hobart, there is the potential for snow to be falling on the ground less than 30mins away. 

Where to go: From Hobart City to Lenah Valley its 14mins. From Hobart City to Collinsvale its 28mins – which takes you through Glenlusk. This is a very scenic and safe drive if you take your time. The highway has plenty of pull over areas and large fields that are likely to have snow settling on them given these areas are around 600-800m. This will let the kids be able to play and for the adults to take in some of the scenery. 

 

View at Collinsville of the Snow back in 2016 as an indication of the open scenes. Image by HSC Admin Thomas.

 

 

Wind: Winds should be “okay” on Thursday as the front pushes through. During Friday, a South Westerly breeze is expected to increase to around 30-60km/h (nothing too dramatic) over much of the State and then  even more over the elevated terrain. As the low increases on Saturday, winds are expected to veer around to the South and increase to around 80-100km/h, possibly even seeing peak gusts of over 110km/h across Mt Wellington. The strongest winds will be over the Central Highlands from the West and the South East Coast from the South. Strong winds of 60-70km/h+ are likely during Sunday and into Monday. This will help make the temperature feel more like in the negatives across most of the State during the weekend as temperatures remain in the single digits. 

 

Forecast wind gusts for Saturday morning via Windy showing damaging gusts in blue / aqua, strong winds in pink.

 

Snow To Low Levels In Tasmania!2019-08-07T15:38:26+10:00
5 08, 2019

A Winterless July Across Australia Breaks A New Record

2019-08-05T19:08:22+10:00

All we ever seem to hear about is how hot its getting. Well, here is another post as a new record falls across Australia following the results of July’s extremely warm month. Above image – Temperature deciles for July via BOM.

 

Its seeming to be the Winter that hasn’t arrived for Australia, despite a powerful polar blast likely to impact large populations towards the end of the week. Queenslanders are complaining about the typical “we had 1 day of Winter this year”, NSW is dry and warm. Canberra is struggling. Melbourne hasn’t been cold. Adelaide and Hobart are barely seeing a Winter either for their standards. Well, July 2019 has gone down as the 4th warmest July in 110 years of record keeping. It sat at around 1.62ºc above average across the entire national platform and more notably – the only area that wasn’t average or above average was the Northern Tropics of QLD, the NT and WA which host very few data recording locations. While there are many factor for this, it was largely brought on by continuous blocking high’s across the mainland which prevented cold fronts extending over the mainland from the Bight and Tasmania – this also helped Tasmania remain wetter than normal. 

July 2019 temperature anomaly across Australia. Image via BOM

 

The significance of this is that July 2019 has become the 33rd consecutive month in a row above average when looking at a national scale. This breaks the previous record of 32 consecutive months spread between August 2012 and March 2015. That also means since November 2016 it has been warmer than normal across the country. 

What has added insult to injury for those who are severely drought impacted is July 2019 was the 12th driest on record. This number is also somewhat skewed as parts of Western Tasmania have had their wettest July on record locally, which has subsequently bumped the rest of the country average up. So by removing Tasmania from the equation, this could’ve been one of the driest and warmest July’s on record…. a tune that has been played for the past x amount of months now. 

Maybe August can be different.. this polar blast will certainly help that when it places half the country below average for around 3-7 days (depending on the exact location).

July 2019 rainfall decile across Australia. Image via BOM

 

A Winterless July Across Australia Breaks A New Record2019-08-05T19:08:22+10:00
5 08, 2019

Queensland: Warm First, Colder Later!

2019-08-05T09:40:21+10:00

All the talk is about the massive Winter snap that is expected to impact Eastern Australia this week – well we have to get to that 1st, and before we get to that, its going to be unseasonably warm across the State with maximums of 6-8ºc above the August average! Above image Maximums for Wednesday via BSCH / OCF.


Yes the cold is coming, but for the first half of the week (Monday to Thursday) its going to be extremely warm for this time of year. Dry winds are expected to feed across large parts of Inland QLD during Monday and Tuesday before a Westerly surge (good old EKKA winds) impact the entire State on Wednesday and Thursday. These winds will interact with a dry air mass aloft, which will help produce above to well above average temperatures across the 4 days through most of the State. Large parts of Inland QLD are expected to push the mid to high 20’s, with Northern districts (away from the Coast) heading for the low to mid 30’s. Longreach is heading for 30ºc of Thursday, as is Mt Isa, Emerald will be up to 29ºc. Even the Darling Downs and South East QLD areas will be in the mid to high 20’s. 

OCF Forecast Maximums for Thursday showing the cold change moving through SW QLD. Image via BSCH.

 

During Thursday, a cold change is expected to impact Western areas (Longreach 30ºc, Birdsville 21ºc). This will then push through to Coastal areas on Friday and across the weekend. While its not expected to bring any rain due to the dry wind, it will drop temperatures by up to 10ºc across some areas and the wind chill factor will make it feel even colder! Stanthorpe is going for a top of just 13ºc on both Saturday and Sunday, and it may not exceed 15ºc from Friday through to about Tuesday to Wednesday the following week. Toowoomba will sit around 15ºc and feel more like 5ºc or colder at times. The cold will be felt further North too with Longreach dropping from 30 or 31ºc on Thursday down to 22ºc by Saturday.

OCF Forecast Maximums for Sunday. Image via BSCH.

 

Queensland: Warm First, Colder Later!2019-08-05T09:40:21+10:00
31 07, 2019

Freezing Temperatures Returning To SE AUS

2019-07-31T18:11:55+10:00

South Eastern AUS is about to see a frozen run of mornings coming up as a dominating high allows for light and cool winds. Above image: Frost for Thursday morning via BOM MetEye (pink is light, purple is heavy). 

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An extremely large high pressure region stretching from the Tasman Sea across the Bight and into the Indian Ocean (covering all of Southern AUS) is expected to start heavily impacting the SE of the Country. As this high moves gradually East over the next several days, its likely to produce some clear-isa skies over SE NSW and North East VIC, as well as cool and light South West to Westerly winds across the region, which will be drawing colder air out of the Antarctic and Bight. This combination will allow temperatures too plummet overnight and potentially lead to expansive areas of light to moderate frost, and pockets of heavy frost. Even if its not frosty, it will still be cold enough for some frozen ponds and frozen hoses. 

Minimum Temperatures for Thursday morning via OCF / BSCH

 

The coldest mornings will be dependant on where you live exactly. Its a split between Thursday morning and Friday morning. Cooma and Thredbo are both going for -7ºc on Thursday morning, and -6ºc on Friday morning – but it wouldn’t be a shock if either location pushed -8 or -9ºc given the notorious nature of both locations and the conditions at play. Temperatures should linger around -4 to -6ºc with the possibility of locally colder temps around the Victorian Alps as well. Across Eastern VIC, places like Omeo are heading for 2ºc on Thursday but then jumping to around 7ºc for Friday morning, whilst areas in Northern VIC are looking at 0 or 1ºc on Thursday and then -2ºc on Friday. 

Minimum Temperatures for Friday morning via OCF / BSCH

 

Saturday and Sunday should remain freezing too, but a few degrees warmer than Thursday and Friday as some heavier cloud coverage comes overhead and traps some of the weak heating in. The flip for this could be colder maximums across the weekend than seen on Thursday or Friday. Melbourne will have a colder 4ºc for Thursday before sitting around 5-6ºc until the end of the weekend. Canberra is looking at -3ºc Thursday morning and then sub-zero until mid next week.

Minimum Temperatures for Saturday morning via OCF / BSCH

 

Freezing Temperatures Returning To SE AUS2019-07-31T18:11:55+10:00
29 07, 2019

Some Showers Returning For SEQLD & NENSW

2019-07-29T15:59:24+10:00

Issued: Monday, July 29th 2019.Its been a while between showers across South East QLD and North East NSW, but a change in weather pattern this week is expected to put an end to fine days and see a return of some showers. Above image: Rainfall between Monday morning and Friday morning (GFS model) via weather.us

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While there has been the odd shower here and there, for most people across South East QLD and large parts of North East NSW (away from the beaches), its been a fairly dry July. This should change to some degree this week as a large high pressure region becomes slow moving across Southern Australia. This high is expected to see winds veer more onshore from the South to South East instead of the West or North like it has been for the past few weeks. The changing of wind direction will allow for increased moisture to come onshore over the region and this will likely coincide with an upper level trough moving across the region during the middle of week. What this will allow is for showers to become isolated late on Tuesday night / Wednesday morning before becoming isolated to possibly scattered at times during Wednesday and Thursday and then gradually easing Friday. The return of showers will also see a change in temperatures, with maximums dropping back towards average across large parts of NENSW & SEQLD. 

OCF Forecast Rainfall for Wednesday alone showing 5-10mm being likely around Coastal areas and very light falls Inland. Image via BSCH

 

Unfortunately, the rainfall totals aren’t expected to be spectacular. The better falls will be around the beaches or elevated terrain of the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast areas, as well as the Northern Rivers. Falls of 15-30mm seem most likely. Across Greater Brisbane and around the Fraser Coast, lighter falls of 5-15mm are likely and then totals will gradually ease off towards the Ranges. Unfortunately, rainfall will be scarce West of the Ranges and though the Lockyer Valley, Brisbane Valley and Granite Belt areas.

These same onshore winds should also impact the remainder of the QLD Coast during the week. We have a weekly outlook available HERE for our members. 

ACCESS Forecast Rainfall out to Friday showing moderate to heavy falls being possible along the DIRECT Coastline through SEQLD & NENSW with next to nothing more than 20mins Inland from the Coast. Image via weather.us

 

Some Showers Returning For SEQLD & NENSW2019-07-29T15:59:24+10:00