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16 07, 2018

Its -10ºc, Wheres the snow?

Over the past several mornings as large parts of NSW, Northern VIC and Southern QLD have frozen in one of the harshest cold snaps (for minimums) we’ve seen in the last 5 years… if not longer. Many people have come to us asking where is the snow? or, why isn’t it snowing? we’re seeing temperatures of -10ºc – wheres the closest snow?

While its accurate to associate cold with snow.. the requirements for the temperature to plummet are actually a massive hinderance for snow to occur. Its usually the same process time and time again for these massive cold snaps to occur. A large, slow moving, high pressure system will dominate the region in question (whether thats South East AUS, NSW, Southern QLD, Inland AUS.. it doesn’t really matter). This high will bring clear, cloud free skies along with very light winds and an abundance of dry air – whether its at the surface or just above the surface. This combination allows for all the heat of the day to escape and the temperature to plummet. The light winds allow for dew to set as frost with no disturbance and we wake up to blue skies, white lawns and frozen taps. 

A slice of the atmosphere from this morning (Monday, July 16th) at Glen Innes. You can see a massive amount of dry air dominating the atmosphere with 0% cloud coverage - this equates to absolutely no snow, but frigid temperatures. - Image via BSCH

A slice of the atmosphere from this morning (Monday, July 16th) at Glen Innes. You can see a massive amount of dry air dominating the atmosphere with 0% cloud coverage – this equates to absolutely no snow, but frigid temperatures. – Image via BSCH

 

For a snow event to occur, while the actual daytime maximums are most likely colder… the nights are nearly always warmer than whats experienced in these cold snaps. For snow to occur, you need precipitation. That means you need moisture in the atmosphere which also creates cloud coverage. The cloud coverage traps any heat from coming in during the day (thus why Guyra can have 2ºc maximums sometimes), but also stops any heat from escaping. So the temperature will sit between about -3 and 3ºc for the majority of the time. The increased moisture allows rainfall to occur which in the right conditions will turn to snow. 

Slice of the atmosphere for Wednesday morning, July 18th, which is favourable for Snow over the Tasmanian Highlands... and possibly even some big snow flakes. - Image via BSCH

Slice of the atmosphere for Wednesday morning, July 18th, which is favourable for Snow over the Tasmanian Highlands… and possibly even some big snow flakes. – Image via BSCH

As you can see, the process for either a severe frost or snowfall is virtually completely opposite. Even for the Snowy Mountains its quite rare to see snow falling when the temperature drops below about -7ºc, for the Northern and Central Tablelands of NSW and into Northern VIC and Southern QLD, it would almost never happen as the region doesn’t normally get that cold and therefore it NEEDS the clear skies for heat to escape. 

12 07, 2018

Widespread Frost Set To Return For S QLD & N NSW

It looks like skies are set to clear once again with temperatures plummeting into the weekend leading to likely widespread frost. Above image – Minimums for Sunday morning via BSCH / OCF.

 

Over the past few days, particularly in the South East corner of the State, conditions have been rather bleak with patches of cloud, scattered light showers and cooler temperatures. However over the next few days models are indicating that a trough should push towards the Coast and much drier, cooler winds are set to return. A West to South West flow today (Thursday) should clear skies across the majority of both Queensland and Northern NSW. This pattern is likely to remain in place across the next 5 or so days, combining with an upper level trough, to the South, moving up from NSW to produce much colder conditions each night as the pattern takes its toll on the atmosphere.

OCF Forecast Minimums via BSCH for Saturday morning

OCF Forecast Minimums via BSCH for Saturday morning

 

 

The coldest mornings are expected on both Saturday and Sunday with below average, but slightly warmer warnings on Monday and Tuesday. Stanthorpe has the potential to record 3 straight mornings of -4ºc or colder – something that hasn’t happened in July since 2012 for the town. Inverell and Tenterfield in NSW are looking at 3 straight mornings (Saturday, Sunday, Monday) of -5ºc or colder… Glen Innes -6ºc or colder. These temperatures could lead to heavy frost in places.

OCF Forecast Minimums via BSCH for Monday morning

OCF Forecast Minimums via BSCH for Monday morning

 

Widespread minimums below 0ºc are expected across large parts of Southern Inland QLD, pushing into Central parts of the State as well as Northern NSW. Many places across the Darling Downs, Warrego and Maranoa, NW Slopes and Plains are expected to drop to -2 or -3ºc on several mornings.

Closer to the Coast, Brisbane might see its coldest morning of the year with 6ºc on Sunday… while places such as Ipswich, Boonah, Beaudesert, Gold Coast Hinterland, Kingaroy, Gatton, Toowoomba, Lismore, Casino are all expected to drop below 2ºc on at least Saturday and Sunday, if not for all 4 mornings.

Despite the clear skies leading to cold nights… they should also lead to warmer days. Temperatures should warm up quickly after about mid morning and push into the low to mid 20’s for Coastal areas, which may even be above average for some areas.

OCF Forecast Maximums via BSCH for Tuesday

OCF Forecast Maximums via BSCH for Tuesday

 

11 07, 2018

Light Snow possible over Central & Southern NSW

It looks like elevated parts of the Southern and Central Ranges of NSW may get a brief snow tease tomorrow as a cold pool moves through. Above image – mid level temperatures via BSCH showing the cold pool over South East NSW.

 

HSC Members > Your snow map has been refined and updated based on the latest data HERE.

A strong upper trough / upper low is expected to move North to North East during the next 24-36hrs over Victoria and across Southern, Central and Eastern NSW. This system is expected to be cold enough to bring some snow to the Snowy Mountains (not much for their standards) along with flurries around the Brindabella Ranges and National Parks East of the ACT. Despite the snow level dropping to ‘maybe’ 800m over Southern NSW, dry air aloft is expected to combine with a narrow wind of opportunity to suppress snow potential, leading to just a few cm expected – certainly nothing worth driving long distances for.

 

Forecast snow accumulation over the next 5 days via Windy - only light dustings are expected in the blue.

Forecast snow accumulation over the next 5 days via Windy – only light dustings are expected in the blue.

 

 

Later in the day as the cold pool slowly drags North, there is the chance of some snow flurries around the Jenolan Caves and highest peaks of the Central Talblenads – again, dry air aloft… narrow wind of opportunity and elevated snow levels will suppress the snow totals, but it could be something fun for the locals.

While this isn’t exactly the most unheard of weather for this time of year – snow in the Snowy Mountains… theres not much else happening around the Country at the moment. This system isn’t expected to reach Northern NSW but the cooler air trailing in behind it should allow for at least some cooler nights towards the weekend.

Potential snow areas for Thursday night circled in red - but only if the criteria of 800m / 1000m and enough moisture is met (not all places in the red).

Potential snow areas for Thursday night circled in red – but only if the criteria of 800m / 1000m and enough moisture is met (not all places in the red).

 

9 07, 2018

150 Million people at risk from Super Typhoon Maria

The insanely perfect eye of Super Typhoon Maria is now barrelling towards Taiwan and China who face severe impacts over the next several days! Destructive winds and flooding rains are both likely! Above image via RAMMB colour satellite image.

 

Maria developed in the Pacific Ocean almost a week ago (July 3) before rapidly intensifying into the first Category 5 typhoon since Nock-ten in 2016. Satellite and data indicated that Maria slightly weakened after it underwent an eye wall replacement cycle… however the latest data says Maria has regained Category 5 intensity as she barrels towards Taiwan and China.

 

Over the next 24hrs, conditions are expected to deteriorate across Taiwan and the Okinawa Prefecture (the islands between Japan and Taiwan) as Maria moves towards and through the region. The good thing is that all models are indicating Maria will miss land areas, but destructive winds and torrential rain are still both expected and could cause significant damage in the way of structural damage over Northern Taiwan, mud slides, flooding rain and potential storm surges. Higher rainfall totals than currently being forecast cant be ruled out due to the steep orographic component of Taiwan’s geography – and this would only enhance the flood / mudslide threat downhill from these isolated falls.

JTWC Forecast Track for Maria as of July 9th

JTWC Forecast Track for Maria as of July 9th

 

 

On Wednesday as the system bypasses Taiwan to the North, conditions are likely to deteriorate over Eastern China as the (by then) Category 3 system with winds to 200km/h makes landfall to the South of Jiaojiang (between Wenzhou and Fuzhou – a fairly populated area of the Coastline. Heavy to torrential flooding rain which will likely cut roads and cause mudslides, damaging to destructive winds which will likely lead to infrastructure damage and a dangerous storm surge are all expected for large parts of Eastern China.

Post-landfall the system is forecast to continue moving Inland, producing further heavy rain leading to mudslides and flooding.

Forecast rainfall accumulation totals for Maria over the next 5 days via Windy - red is over 100mm, pink is over 250mm

Forecast rainfall accumulation totals for Maria over the next 5 days via Windy – red is over 100mm, pink is over 250mm

 

11 05, 2018

Record Shattering Rain hits Hobart overnight!

Posted 11/5/18 Hobart has been dealt a rapid blow overnight as intense / severe thunderstorms lashed South East TAS record breaking heavy rain and dangerous flash flooding. Above image via Weatherzone showing the 3 main totals (Hobart, Mt Wellington & Grove).

 

 

During Thursday night (last night), a cluster of intense or even severe thunderstorms moved across South East parts of Tasmania. Hobart was right in the cross hairs of the heavy rain which persisted for hours and lead to the City recording its 4th wettest day in history with a staggering 129.2mm – only the 5th time ever Hobart has exceeded 100mm in a day and the first time for May. The rain came down fast with 44mm recorded in the space of an hour (this alone almost broke the May record of 47.6mm at Ellerslie Road). Streets turned into rivers as the Hobart Rivulet broke its banks. This allowed the situation to escalate further as cars were washed down streets and thousands of properties and businesses lost power. The 129mm total is almost 3x the previous May record and 3x the running May average.

 

TAS 11pm Radar

Weatherzone radar as of 11pm showing the intense cluster of storms over South East TAS and Hobart City

 

 

While the system was supposed to be beneficial for snowfall on Mt Wellington, the opposite has occurred with an insane 234.8mm being recorded between 9am Friday and 9am Saturday, this is an all time record for any day – surpassing 202mm set on December 19, 1995. Nearby Grove recorded 158.8mm also which was 2.5x the May record of 60mm and higher than the April 23, 1960 all time record of 154.7mm. This is only the 2nd month (April being the other) that Grove has recorded 100mm+ on a day in.

Other big totals include: Leslie Vale (222mm), Crabtree (143mm), Cannells Hill (131mm), Styx Waterfall (124mm), Nugent (123mm), Buckland (121mm), Sudbury (119mm), Mount Lloyd Road (115mm), Kingston (110mm) – all of which are likely to be at least a new May Record if not for some, an all-time daily record. Maria Island, East of Hobart, also recorded 91mm which was a new town record for May. Hartz Mountains in the South, despite only having records back to 1996 absolutely smashed the 28.6mm record for May with 86mm!

 

Rainfall totals across South East TAS via BOM

Rainfall totals across South East TAS via BOM 

 

 

Conditions are forecast to remain wet and windy at times throughout Friday, but they should begin to ease as the day progresses. So thankfully, unless something unsuspecting happens, the worst appears to be over.

 

OCF Forecast Rainfall for Friday across Tasmania showing rain easing over the South East and increasing over the North East. Image via BSCH / OCF

OCF Forecast Rainfall for Friday across Tasmania showing rain easing over the South East and increasing over the North East. Image via BSCH / OCF

 

10 05, 2018

South East AUS Low – Rolling Updates, May 2018

FINAL UPDATE 10am 13/5/18 – ALL SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS FROM THE SYSTEM HAVE NOW BEEN CANCELLED.

The deep low pressure system is located well off the NSW coast though is it still causing some strong winds and showers to the Central NSW coast. The low is forecast to move South East towards New Zealand during Sunday and Monday with showers being maintained along the NSW coast. This severe weather system has delivered widespread rain to South East Aust (some record breaking rain and flooding in South East Tasmania), damaging and destructive winds from 90 to 135km hr across large parts of South East Aust, large dangerous surf, very cold temperatures, snow to low levels in Victoria, snow on the NSW Central Tablelands with blizzards on the Alps.
We hope everyone has remained safe during this unusual May weather pattern. Our thoughts are with those who suffered damage and losses in South East Tasmania due to severe flooding. Thank you for following Higgins Storm Chasing we hope you have valued our accurate forecasts, warning, updates and coverage of the system. For a full run down of the Super Low please read our detailed blog below.

SOUTHEASTAUSTLOWBOMSAT13THMAY2018


UPDATE: 6:10PM 12/5/18 The low is now centred around 480km East of Sydney and moving away from the Coast. Scattered showers and light to moderate rain areas are continuing across the NSW South and Central Coastal areas with Merimbula on the NSW South Coast leading all on 27mm since 9am. Strong to damaging winds of 75km/h+ are still lashing the NSW South Coast. Conditions have improved across nearly the entirety of VIC now, however damaging winds and very cold temperatures are still being observed across the Alpine areas.


UPDATE: 1pm 12/5/18  Some big wind gusts have been observed over the Snowy Mountains and Alps in the past 12-18hrs as the Low rips damaging Southerly winds up the NSW Coast and across Eastern VIC.

• Mount Hotham 143km/h (twice) (gusts to over 120km/h for 11hrs straight)
• Falls Creek 130km/h

• Mount William 122km/h (yesterday)
• Montague Island 115km/h
• Green Cape 113km/h
• Mount Ginini 113km/h
• Thredbo 111km/h
• Mount Buller 106km/h
• Cape Otway 100km/h
• Gabo Island 100km/h

These kinds of winds were no doubt creating blizzard conditions across the peaks of the Snowy Mountains and Victorian Alps overnight. While good falls of 50-100mm have been observed over Eastern VIC as forecast. Further good falls today should push totals above the 100mm for a few locations as forecast for the event.

BOM 12518 24hr Rain VIC

24hr rainfall via BOM to 9am 12-5-18

 

WZ WINDS 12518

Weatherzone radar and winds showing damaging winds over the Victorian Alps and NSW South Coast (purple lines) during the early hours of Saturday 12/5/18 morning


UPDATE: As of midday 12/5/18  Snow had been reported overnight Friday into Saturday across the Barrington Tops where a light dusting was observed. Heavy snow had also been documented over the Brindabella Ranges as the Namadgi National Park turned white!


Snow reported across the Barrington Tops via Scone.com.au

Heavy snow obscured across the Brindabella Ranges, ACT via Timothy Dean

UPDATE: 8:30am 12/5/18  The centre of the low which has been the cause of all the severe weather over TAS is now located about 250km East of Wollongong on the NSW Illawarra Coast. The system is continuing to move in a general North to North East direction and allowing rain areas to stream along the NSW Coast South of Sydney. Some pockets of moderate falls are occurring and this has lead to isolated falls of 25-40mm being recorded so far. The swell is expected to increase across this morning as the strong winds continue to lash the Coast.

 

8:30am 12/5/18 radar for the NSW South Coast via Weatherzone

8:30am 12/5/18 radar for the NSW South Coast via Weatherzone

 


UPDATE: 9pm 11/5/18  Rain areas are easing across the Eastern half of Victoria. These rain areas are expected to continue throughout the night across Eastern VIC where locally heavy falls are possible. The centre of the dominating surface low is situated well East of Bass Strait over the open Tasman Sea waters and is expected to move slowly North leading to an increased swell across the NSW South and Central Coast’s as well as Eastern Coastal parts of VIC during the night and into tomorrow morning. Rain is still falling as snow over Alpine areas such as the Victoria Alps and Snowy Mountains, while flurries cant be ruled out over the highest peaks of the Central Tablelands.


UPDATE: 6pm 11/5/18  Rain areas are continuing across Central and Eastern VIC with good falls of 10-25mm so far along with scattered falls North and East of Greater Melbourne of 25mm+ and isolated falls of up to 50mm since 9am. Rain is continuing to fall as snow across the Alpine regions with some scattered showers pushing in over Southern and Central Inland NSW. Temperatures are remaining freezing across both Victoria and Southern NSW. Canberra has recorded its coldest day this early in the year since 1970, registering a maximum temperature of just 9.0ºc. Bathurst could only warm to 7.2ºc, Orange 5.9ºc. Mount Hotham couldn’t even warm above freezing with -0.4ºc so far today as a maximum while Thredbo’s -2.2ºc max so far is the coldest for the year, the wind chill has been brutal with it feeling colder than -10ºc all day.

6pm 11/5/18 radar for NSW and VIC via Weatherzone

6pm 11/5/18 radar for NSW and VIC via Weatherzone

 

Snow covering tabletops across Perisher today via Perisher Mid Centre

Stunning scenes out of the Brindabella Ranges via Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development

UPDATE: 12pm 11/5/18 The current satellite image from BOM below shows the deep low between North East Tasmania and South East Victoria. The system is forecast to move North East offshore from the NSW during Saturday before moving South East and away on Sunday. Rain areas are continuing across Central Victoria including Melbourne and the North East quarter of Tasmania. Heavy rain and flooding has now eased from the Hobart area and is not forecast to return. Snow is continuing to fall across Alpine regions and high elevations above 900 meters in Central / Southern NSW including the ACT. Scattered showers and strong winds are continuing across Adelaide. Strong winds are remaining in place for the next 24 hrs across SA, VIC, NSW, ACT and Tasmania with fresh cool South West winds now also extending across most of QLD. Heavy rain is still expected to develop across far Eastern VIC and far Eastern NSW during Friday night into Saturday morning. Strong Southerly winds will extend along much of the NSW coast on Saturday. 
BOMSAT11THMAY2018


UPDATE: As of 9am 11/5/18, Melbourne City had recorded a daily maximum (from 9am Thursday to 9am Friday) of just 12.8ºc, this is the coldest temperature for Melbourne this early in the year since 1970!


UPDATE: 6:35am 11/5/18 rain areas had eased across Tasmania with scattered showers persisting out of the South East now. These showers were allowing rainfall totals to continue accumulating with Mt Wellington up to a staggering 224mm and Grove 156mm – both all time new daily records for ANY month. Hobart was sitting on 128mm which was nearly 3x the previous May record and 4th wettest day in history. Snow was also being reported as settling across the NSW Central Tablelands with new reports overnight out of Oberon and Blayney. 

WZ 635 TAS 11518

Radar update for Tasmania via Weatherzone with rainfall totals included.


UPDATE: 1:50am 11/5/18  Rain areas are continuing across South East TAS including Hobart a record breaking 106mm has occurred in the City and 151mm over Mt Wellington. These rain areas are expected to linger throughout the night and into Saturday morning.

Across VIC, scattered showers which may contain small hail are moving into Greater Melbourne. These showers have produced up to 40mm over Southg West VIC so far and should increase rainfall totals over the East during the next 36-48hrs. Isolated showers (falling as snow) are being observed on radar over the NSW Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, Brindabella Ranges and Snowy Mountains / VIC Alps.

 

1:50am 11/5/18 radar for Tasmania via Weatherzone

1:50am 11/5/18 radar for Tasmania via Weatherzone

 

1:50am 11/5/18 radar for NSW and VIC via Weatherzone

1:50am 11/5/18 radar for NSW and VIC via Weatherzone

 


UPDATE: 12:25am 11/5/18  Severe thunderstorms have eased across the Hobart region however continued heavy rain is still occurring. The City (Hobart) has officially surpassed 100mm since 9am, making it the first time ever in May this has occurred and only the 5th time in history for Hobart City. Mt Wellington is pushing towards 150mm since 9am and almost doubled the previous May record. Major and rapid flash flooding was being observed across Hobart leading to several cars being washed away and streets turning into rivers. Power remained out to at least 10,000 people possibly more with rain areas still impacting the region.

Screen Shot 2018-05-11 at 12.27.04 AM

Rain since 9am as of 12:25am for Hobart via BOM


Video of flooding going through the Corridors of the University of Tasmania via The Mercury

 


UPDATE: 11:20pm 10/5/18 Severe thunderstorms were lashing South Eastern parts of Tasmania including Greater Hobart. Heavy rain in the vicinity of 60mm in an hour had been recorded over Mt Wellington and 44mm in 1 hour at Hobart. Totals since 9am had exceeded 94mm in Hobart and 136mm at Wellington – both obliterating the previous May daily record. Extensive and rapid flash flooding had been observed across the City of Hobart leading to several car incidents along with more than 15,000 people without power.

Across the VIC Alps and Snowy Mountains, heavy snow was continued to be observed with Thredbo sitting on a nation low of -5ºc with wind chill making it feel closer to -14ºc. Falls Creek has brought out the snow plows to clear some of the snow already. While the Brindabella Ranges in the ACT were white from snow. Snow flurries were starting to be observed over the NSW Central Tablelands at Arkell (near Blayney) with flurries likely occurring around the Jenolan Caves and Oberon.


Rapid flash flooding in New Town, Hobart via The Mercury

Snow falling over the Brindabella Ranges via SnowSearch Australia

UPDATE: 10:15pm 10/5/18 Hobart on 56.8mm has just broken the 136 year May daily rainfall record as heavy thunderstorms impact the city. The 177 year rainfall record at the Botanical Gardens site is also very likely to be broken tonight. A convergence line is feeding in from the East with further heavy falls expected for most of tonight, the city may even reach 100mm by morning! Heavy snow is impacted the Great Lakes with power surges (see video below). We had forecast this record potential earlier today HERE


UPDATE: 9pm 10/5/18 Winds and rain increasing further across South East Tasmania with the deep low circulation near the East Coast. Maria Island has recorded 81mm to 9pm which has set a new May daily rainfall record surpassing 77mm in 2012. Hobart is over halfway to setting a new May daily rainfall record with 27mm so far. Damaging winds of 89km hr at Hobart airport and a whopping 132km hr at Mt Wellington. Heavy snow is falling across the Central highlands. Blizzard conditions now impacting the Alps with 87km hr winds and heavy snow falling. Snow has also been recorded at Mt Beauty in Victoria which is at just 366 meters! Orange in NSW is now down to 1C with snow showers coming in from the west. Damaging winds to 100km hr have been observed along the South Australia South East Coast. Below image showing rain, storms, snow and damaging winds impacting South East Tasmania via Weatherzone.com.au


Video from Great Lake Hotel in the Tasmanian Central Highlands of heavy snow coming down

TASRADAR9PM10THMAY2018


Snow being observed at 366m ASL at Mt Beauty in North East VIC


Above video shows heavy snow coming down at Mt Hotham via Hotham Alpine Resort as of  6pm 10/5/18


 UPDATE: 5:30pm 10/5/18 Very cold temperatures of 10C or below and feels like temps of 5c or below being oberseved across all of Victoria, Southern inland NSW, ACT, South East SA and Tasmania. A band of rain is heading towards the Brindabella Ranges in NSW/ACT which is likley to produce overnight snow due to -2C temperatures. The same band of rain is likely to cause heavy snow across the Alps tonight. Rainfall is increasing across Eastern Tasmania with some offshore thunderstorms observed. Winds increasing across South East Tasmania with Hobart recording 80km hr and Mt Wellington recording 104km hr. Some storms have developed just offshore near Newcastle and Southern NSW these are moving away from the coast. 
BOMSAT10THMAY2018


UPDATE: 3:30pm 10/5/18  The upper low cold pool of air is now positioned firmly over Victoria and Southern NSW moving North to North East, there are two low level circulations one in Bass Straight and one North East of Hobart. The system is producing scattered showers across VIC, some briefly moderate and some that may contain small hail. Snow is falling across the VIC Alps and may fall over the Dandenong Ranges over the next few hours if it hasn’t started already. Snow is being reported from the Great Lakes in Tasmania. 

We have already seen good snowfall being reported across the Victorian Alpine resorts and Snowy Mountains with several locations, mostly over the South West of VIC reporting small hail with showers earlier in the day. As of 3:30pm, mostly light falls had occurred across VIC although falls of 25-40mm have been observed across South East and Eastern Tasmania as a result of a Tasman Low impacting the region over the course of today. Damaging winds have so far been observed only briefly over elevated parts of Tasmania and Victoria.

WZ VIC 330pm 10518

Water vapour and satellite imagery via Weatherzone showing the upper low over VIC and Southern NSW


 

10 05, 2018

Snow likely in the next 24hrs over the Central Tablelands

Forecast issued 10/5/18. The Central Tablelands and Blue Mountains of NSW are expected to see their first lot of snow for the season over the next 24-36 hours! Above image showing forecast snowfall via Windy

 

 

Very cold air is expected to finally make its way up into Central NSW during this afternoon and tonight, combining with enough moisture for reasonable snowfall to occur over the Central Tablelands and Blue Mountains. Ideally you want temperatures at or below 0ºc at around 1000m ASL and at least good low level moisture for snowfall to occur. This combination looks like to occur from about Thursday evening (after dark) until Friday afternoon (before dark) with the coldest air moving over the region during Friday morning. This will give about a 24hr window of opportunity for snow to fall, and models are expecting snow flurries down to around 700m or 800m during this time.

 

850mb temperatures (just above the surface) at their coldest during Friday morning via BSCH

850mb temperatures (just above the surface) at their coldest during Friday morning via BSCH

 

 

The best falls are expected to be around Oberon due to elevation and positioning with around 10-15cm expected. However anything from a dusting up to a couple of cm even 5-7cm is expected through the towns of Crookwell, Neville, Blayney, Rockley and Orange. So you don’t have to travel too far (even if youre in Bathurst) to see some snow. 

Strong winds of 40-60km/h are expected to make the very cold temperatures feel even colder. Maximums across Friday are expected to be bone chilling across the region with Oberon looking at a max of 5ºc, Orange 6ºc, Lithgow 7ºc, Marrangaroo & Bathurst 8ºc. You can take off about 5-8ºc for wind chill from those temperatures, so it may feel colder than 0ºc all day at Oberon and Orange. 

 

Friday maximum temperatures via BSCH / OCF - Take off about 5ºc+ for wind chill

Friday maximum temperatures via BSCH / OCF – Take off about 5ºc+ for wind chill

 

9 05, 2018

HSC Flood Watch for Eastern VIC

Forecast issued 9/5/18. Eastern parts of VIC are expected to be put on a flood watch with models in high agreement for 100-200mm over the next few days. Above image via weather.us showing the German model output.

 

 

Large parts of Eastern and possibly Central Victoria as well as extreme South East New South Wales are expected to see significant rainfall over the next few days as a Tasman Low develops and moves very slowly over open waters East / North East of Tasmania and South East of VIC. 

The system is forecast to develop early on Friday and become very low moving in the Tasman Sea. As time progresses, its forecast to move North and this will allow for consistent South to South West winds to dominate Southern, Central and Eastern VIC as well as pushing into Southern NSW. These winds are likely to carry high levels of moisture with them, combining with extremely cold upper level temperatures to produce constant rain areas over Eastern VIC and extreme parts of South East NSW. Further showers and possible rain areas are likely over the remainder of South East NSW and Central VIC.

 

 

 

The heaviest falls are likely to occur across Eastern Victoria where all global models are currently indicating scattered to almost widespread falls of 100-200mm across the region. Most global models are also indicating isolated higher falls of more than 200mm over the region. These kinds of falls are very significant for the area and over the course of 2-3 days some places are expected to see 2-3 months worth of rain (the region averages about 150mm for May, June & July combined). Further good falls of 50mm+ are possible around Central VIC including Melbourne and 50-100mm over the border into extreme South East NSW (South of the ACT). Isolated thunderstorms are also possible in amongst these rain areas and could produce locally heavier falls. Flash flooding is highly likely along with river, stream and creek rises – especially over streams that are between the Gippsland Coast and Victorian Alps where most of the rain is forecast to occur.

 

 

 

9 05, 2018

Warm First Before Cold Snap hits QLD

Forecast issued 9/10/18. Its been a long time coming, but large parts of QLD are about to experience some prolonged below average temperatures as South to South West winds dominate from late Thursday onwards. Above image via Pivotalweather showing temperature anomaly for QLD on Friday (difference compared to normal).

 

 

On Thursday, large parts of QLD are expected to be under the influence of warming temperatures as a trough moves East across the State and produces warm air ahead of it. Large parts of Northern and Central QLD are forecast to reach 30ºc+ with even South East and Southern QLD reaching the high 20’s or possibly even 30ºc around Ipswich and Gatton. These kinds of temperatures, especially over Southern districts are around 4-8ºc above average for this time of year.

 

Forecast maximums across QLD for Thursday (well above average for most). Image via BSCH / OCF

Forecast maximums across QLD for Thursday (well above average for most). Image via BSCH / OCF

 

 

That will be the last of it though for some time. Once the trough moves through over late Thursday and Friday, much colder South to South Westerly winds are forecast to dominate the majority of the State. These winds should last into the weekend, with Friday being incredibly colder than Thursday and Saturday colder than Friday as the winds take their toll on the atmosphere. Maximums across Southern and South East QLD are expected to struggle into the 20’s, with large parts of Southern Inland QLD staying in the teens. Maximums are likely to reach the low to mid 20’s across Northern and North West QLD also. Across the Granite Belt, temperatures may struggle to reach the teens on Friday and Saturday, staying below 12ºc for most of the day. These kinds of temperatures aren’t uncommon for this time of year, but after such a prolonged period of above average heat it will be well appreciated by many. Across Southern districts, you can even knock off another 3-5ºc for the wind chill factor too.

For comparison purposes, some areas across Southern Inland QLD may be between 9 and 12ºc colder on Friday than whats expected on Thursday.

 

Forecast maximums for Friday across Southern QLD showing below average and much cooler temperatures. Image via BSCH / OCF

Forecast maximums for Friday across Southern QLD showing below average and much cooler temperatures. Image via BSCH / OCF

 

 

During Saturday morning there is the chance of some isolated frosts around the Warrego and Maranoa, Darling Downs and especially the Granite Belt. Temperatures should be between -1 and 4ºc across these areas. The only hindering factor is expected to be the wind. Frost may struggle to settle while winds remain elevated – but the flip side of that is it’ll feel much much colder.

 

Forecast minimums via BSCH / OCF for Saturday morning across Southern QLD

Forecast minimums via BSCH / OCF for Saturday morning across Southern QLD

 

7 05, 2018

Super Low to bring possible Heavy Snow to NSW & VIC

A Super Low is forecast by all global models to move over TAS, VIC and NSW towards the end of the week, bringing the first proper snow dumping of the year with severe weather likely also. Above image shows temperatures on Friday morning at 17,000ft which exceed thresholds for Super Low criteria.

 

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A powerful cut off low, which is a low that cuts off from the main cold pool over the Antarctic and ventures its way up towards Australia, also known as a Super Low (HSC terminology) is forecast to move up through the Eastern Bight and South of TAS on Thursday, reaching VIC, South East SA and TAS overnight Thursday into Friday. The system is then expected to strengthen as it moves over NSW on Friday and linger into Saturday bringing 3 days of severe weather, mostly in the form of snow to TAS, VIC and NSW.

 

 

The coldest and most moisture laden air is expected to move over NSW during late Friday and across Saturday. This should lead to heavy snow occurring over the Snowy Mountains with falls of up to 50cm being possible over Mount Hotham in VIC and the NSW Snowy Mountains. Good falls are also expected over the NSW Central Tablelands down to around 900m with 10-15cm expected. Whilst NSW is getting the heavier snow, VIC is expected to get the lower snow with models indicating snow is likely to fall down to 400m and is possible down to 300m – this would mean places like Ballarat could see some flurries and the Creswick Forest to the North could see some snow settling, while snow is likely to settle over the Dandenong Ranges also. Canberra in the ACT is hit and miss for snow, with models jumping around a lot. Its more likely that Canberra itself will miss out on snow settling, but some unsettled flurries may still occur. Unfortunately for TAS, it seems to be largely missing the better snowfall, although reasonable falls of 10-20cm are expected over elevated parts of the Central Highlands. 

NSW May10to12 Snow4

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Widespread strong to damaging winds are also likely across VIC, TAS and NSW. The strongest gusts appear to be over TAS where 100-125km/h seem likely, especially over the South. This could be linked to an East Coast Low that ventures South or a Tasman Low that develops near TAS in association to this system. Good rainfall is also likely over the VIC South Coast, large parts of TAS and into Southern / Central Inland NSW. 

The system will also likely bring a rapid change in temperature. Places like Canberra may struggle to exceed 10ºc on Friday, Melbourne 12ºc, Bathurst 9ºc on both Friday and Saturday, Orange just 7ºc on both days as well. Mount Hotham has a max of -2ºc for Friday. These kinds of temps are more suited to the peak of Winter rather than May.

 

Forecast maximums for Friday via BSCH / OCF showing very cold temperatures over VIC and NSW.

Forecast maximums for Friday via BSCH / OCF showing very cold temperatures over VIC and NSW.