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13 11, 2019

Excessive Heat Wont Leave QLD

2019-11-13T11:26:06+10:00

The biggest question on everyones mind is when will conditions change. The sad reality is… they won’t.
Above image – Maximums for SEQLD at the end of the current forecast period (Wednesday November 20th) via BSCH.

Over the next 8-10 days, models are hellbent on maintaining these atrocious dry, hot and gusty conditions across the entirety of QLD. Its likely that across this period of time, multiple individual heatwaves are expected to sweep the State – however the cool changes that break these heatwaves up are expected to be so weak and temporary, that even the cool changes will maintain above average temperatures.

 

Forecast maximums for Queensland on Thursday, November 14th. Image via BSCH

 

Across Wednesday, ‘cooler’ conditions (still in the low to mid 30’s) are expected across Southern QLD with temperatures into the mid to high 30’s elsewhere and even into the 40’s over some Northern areas. These conditions will persist into Thursday. From Friday onwards, another excessive period of heat is likely to build with maximums gradually climbing across the entire State. By Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday next week – widespread areas of Inland QLD are expected to surge into the low to possibly even mid 40’s with the heat pushing very close to the Coast as well. When you compare this to what is classed as ‘normal’ for November standards.. these maximums are WAY hotter than those parameters. 

 

Forecast maximums for Queensland on Sunday, November 17th. Image via BSCH

 

 

These DRY and HOT conditions are expected to coincide with gusty winds at times, leading to elevated fire dangers across extensive areas of the State for several days. SEVERE fire danger potential has already been forecast for the Darling Downs and Granite Belt on Friday & Saturday. 

The ONLY hope for any rain is expected to be on Friday and into the weekend across EXTREMELY ISOLATED areas of Central and South East QLD. This activity won’t alter temperatures though with hot conditions likely. 

 

Forecast maximums for Queensland on Wednesday, November 20th. Image via BSCH

 

 

The even sadder reality is that by Wednesday next week.. Australia’s heat engine (the Pilbara) will still see maximums topping the mid to high 40’s which means eventually that all has to come across, so it won’t be a shock to see the heat persist well beyond Wednesday into the following week.

 

Forecast maximums for Australia on Wednesday, November 20th showing heat still yet to come from WA. Image via BSCH

 

Excessive Heat Wont Leave QLD2019-11-13T11:26:06+10:00
10 11, 2019

CATASTROPHIC Fire Danger Forecast For Central NSW inc. Greater Sydney TUESDAY

2019-11-11T14:36:25+10:00

Issued Sunday, November 10th 2019. Valid for Tuesday, November 12th 2019. A WORST CASE SCENARIO has been issued for the Greater Sydney, Central Coast, Hunter and Blue Mountains areas on Tuesday as CATASTROPHIC fire conditions are forecast due to a near-perfect setup for fires impacting the area. 

Note: This is the FIRST time since the Catastrophic Fire Danger level was introduced into the Australian system back in 2009, that one has been required for Greater Sydney

 

 

Forecast: On Tuesday, an extremely volatile setup is forecast to impact NSW resulting in some of the worst and most favourable fire conditions we have seen since Black Saturday back in 2009. A surface boundary is expected to become situated DIRECTLY ALONG the NSW Coast. This will help draw in STRONG to DAMAGING & DRY West to South West winds across the entire State. A cool change is forecast to move up the NSW Southern and Central Coast areas during the day, with STRONG to DAMAGING winds occurring along and behind this change. These DRY winds will coincide with very warm and dry air aloft which will help produce hot conditions as well, with peak temperatures in excess of 35ºc for most areas and in excess of 40ºc for some. 

 

Forecast maximums across NSW for Tuesday via OCF / BSCH

 

Threats: The focus for the fire threat will be over the Central Coast, Greater Sydney, Hunter, Blue Mountains, Illawarra and Shoalhaven areas. Across these areas we are expecting wind gusts in excess of 70km/h for most areas and peak winds of 100km/h+ for some. These winds will coincide with temperatures of 35-42ºc leading to very dangerous fire conditions leading to the requirement for a CATASTROPHIC fire danger threat to be forecast. A cool change moving through the area will also pose a risk for ongoing fires to be blown in a new direction and create additional issues with embers blowing potentially several kilometres ahead of any pre-existing fires. Any fires that develop over these areas will become uncontrollable VERY QUICKLY, and given the population in these areas there is a SIGNIFICANT risk to homes, properties and lives!

 

 

A large area of EXTREME & SEVERE fire dangers have also been issued across remaining Eastern half of NSW. These areas are likely to experience winds of 50-70km/h with peak temperatures also in the mid to high 30’s and possibly up to 40ºc. The biggest threat across these areas will be the fact that ongoing fires WONT be contained by Tuesday and therefore any fires, particularly large ones, as well as ones that are inaccessible, will quickly become uncontrolled and pose additional threats. 



Safety: Please have an emergency plan in place NOW! If you do not know what one is please follow this HERE. Do this NOW will you have time! Its better to have it done and not need it. Some schools are scheduled to be closed due to the conditions as a means of safety in the highest risk areas (Catastrophic risk), if you are in this risk and are not sure – please contact your school directly. 

 

Wind Gusts for NSW on Tuesday afternoon via Windy.

CATASTROPHIC Fire Danger Forecast For Central NSW inc. Greater Sydney TUESDAY2019-11-11T14:36:25+10:00
7 11, 2019

DANGEROUS Fire Conditions Across SEQLD & NENSW Friday!

2019-11-07T16:59:59+10:00

A significant fire threat is expected across both the South East quarter of QLD and much of North East NSW on Friday as a dangerous set of conditions combine over these areas leading to EXTREME fire danger potential and even locally CATASTROPHIC conditions can’t be ruled out! Above image – Wind gusts Friday afternoon during peak heating via Windy!

 

On Friday, November 8th, a surface trough will become active directly along the Coastline through SEQLD & NENSW. This trough will allow for very warm to hot and dry air aloft to combine with strengthening South Westerly winds. This atmospheric combination will result in widespread maximums in the mid to high 30s with some locations likely to nudge 40°C+ as well – this is around 8-12°C above the normal November average! 

Forecast Maximums for Friday across SEQLD & NENSW via BSCH / OCF

 

 

Winds will begin gusty across the Ranges during the morning with peak gusts of 50-70km/h expected. As the day progresses we are expected to see winds increase as well with widespread gusts of 50-70km/h across the entire South East quarter of QLD & expansive parts of NSW in general. Peak gusts nearing 90km/h are also expected. These winds will coincide with temperatures in the mid to high 30s which will ultimate see fire indices skyrocket to dangerous levels! 

Forecast Fire Threat for Friday via NSW RFS

 

 

A very gusty but DRY cool change will move through overnight into Saturday which will only worsen conditions as well, with a wind direction change making any ongoing fires difficult to contain! 

We cannot stress enough that you MUST follow any advice from fire emergency or police officials as emergency warnings will be issued extremely quickly given the conditions! We will post emergency warnings as soon as they are issued by officials!

Forecast Fire Threat for Friday via QFES

 

DANGEROUS Fire Conditions Across SEQLD & NENSW Friday!2019-11-07T16:59:59+10:00
7 11, 2019

Why is QLD HOT when TAS is COLD, and visa versa??

2019-11-07T12:13:12+10:00

Today seems like the perfect time to explain why its snowing in TAS and why its hot in QLD at the same time. This in fact is a very common occurrence for both to happen simultaneously and thats because its the same weather system that causes both.

 

The general overview is we have a large high pressure system over Southern WA and across the Great Australian Bight. This is combining with a very strong and powerful low pressure system down near Antarctica that is feeding a low pressure trough up across Coastal parts of Eastern Australia and across the tropics. What this does, is draw moisture in over South Eastern AUS which includes Southern NSW, VIC, TAS and South East / Southern Central SA as indicated by the arrows on image 1. The trough along the East Coast of Australia however turns these winds more West to South West and after travelling over land for a good 12-18 hours those winds begin to dry out. The positioning of the trough along the Coast though prevents any moisture coming in off the Coral Sea and this results in showers occurring over South East AUS, but dry conditions across Northern NSW, much of QLD and through Interior parts of the Country.

Surface winds over AUS with isobars showing South Westerly winds dominating much of the Country due to a trough and high pressure region. Image via Windy

Then we look in the 850mb range for temperatures (image 2) and that explains a whole lot more. A strong upper trough (very strong for this time of year) is active over the Eastern Bight, TAS and VIC (indicated by the blue colouring which is temperatures below 0ºc at 850mb / 2km above the ground). This cold air is mixing with the moisture to produce snowfall over SE AUS. At the same elevation, temperatures are into the low to mid 20’s across the Northern half of AUS.

850mb temperatures (about 2km above the ground) showing very cold air over SE AUS and very warm to hot air over Northern AUS. Image via Windy.

So now… Queensland, Northern Territory and Northern Western Australia are seeing dry winds at the surface, and hot air aloft – this ALWAYS produces hot / above average temperatures. But on the other hand.. Tasmania, SE South Australia, Victoria and Southern NSW have very cold air aloft and moisture which = snow.

This setup is very typical of a Winter setup with upper troughs racing across Southern Australia and a lack of rainfall over Northern Australia. The only difference now compared to then, is the snowfall becomes somewhat limited (10-15cm expected instead of 50cm) and the temperatures over Northern AUS are much hotter because it is November and NOT Winter.

Maximums across AUS for Friday, November 8th via OCF/BSCH showing cold over SE AUS and hot over Northern AUS.

Why is QLD HOT when TAS is COLD, and visa versa??2019-11-07T12:13:12+10:00
7 11, 2019

HOT Conditions Returning To SEQLD & NENSW!

2019-11-07T02:26:07+10:00

South East QLD and North East NSW are about to experience a 3 day period of well above average maximums which is bucking the trend from the last several weeks and is also likely to push fire danger potential up. Above image – maximum temperatures for Friday across SEQLD & NENSW via BSCH.


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During the next several days (Thursday to Saturday), a surface trough is expected to become stationary and stubborn VERY CLOSE to the Coastline across both areas, if not located directly along the Coastline. This setup will combine with DRY Westerly winds as well as warm and dry air aloft which will result in widespread FINE, SUNNY and HOT conditions across the entirety of both areas. 

Maximums across SEQLD & NENSW for Thursday (Nov 7) via BSCH.

 

 

Brisbane averages 28ºc for November, Thursday is expected to be around 33-34ºc across Brisbane with Friday becoming much hotter at about 37ºc! Ipswich averages 29-30ºc for November standards, however Thursday and Friday are expected to push 37 & 39ºc respectively. Similar anomalies of around 6-10ºc above average are expected on the respective days across most areas. This is far different to the past 3 weeks where only 2 or 3 days have been 2ºc+ above average with most days quite close to average and some even below average. On Saturday, maximums will remain above average across all areas, but significantly cooler than Friday as winds veer more out of the South West rather than the West.

Maximums across SEQLD & NENSW for Saturday (Nov 9) via BSCH.

 


Friday will also see dangerous fire conditions with EXTREME fire danger potential across the Darling Downs with widespread SEVERE fire danger potential across Southern and South East QLD due to very hot conditions and gusty conditions occurring simultaneously. 

Fire conditions for Friday via QFES

 

Unfortunately maximums aren’t expected to drop too much beyond Saturday with another excessive heat period returning on Tuesday and lasting for several days and becoming potentially much hotter than this burst of heat for some areas – we will have more on that next week.

Maximums across SEQLD & NENSW for Wednesday (Nov 13) via BSCH.

HOT Conditions Returning To SEQLD & NENSW!2019-11-07T02:26:07+10:00
13 10, 2019

Hot Conditions Increasing For QLD

2019-10-13T17:15:32+10:00

Much of QLD is expected to endure hot conditions over the next several days, triggering an increased risk of bushfires and some raised dusty / dusty conditions. Above image – Maximums across the State on Wednesday.

 

While we have had our up and down temperatures across the State over the past several weeks – last week being a perfect example where parts of South East QLD came within 0.2ºc of breaking 80 year old October records with 41ºc+ and then a matter of days later, it becomes the 8th coldest day of the year for the area. However these next few days (started in part today – Sunday – in South West areas) are expected to resemble truer Summer conditions.

 

Across the period of Monday to Wednesday, the majority of Inland QLD is forecast to push into the high 30’s and low 40’s. Some areas, like Birdsville are expected to climb up to around 43ºc while Longreach is one of many locations expecting to see 3 consecutive days of 40ºc+. While these temperatures are certainly NOT uncommon for this time of year (look at October 2018 as an example when Birdsville had temperatures push 45ºc and Winton reached 40ºc+ for the last 9 days of the month)… they are a sign that December and January are just around the corner, and they are still WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. For Winton, Tuesday or Wednesday could push 43ºc and challenge for the hottest day of the year so far. The most intense of the heat is expected to be on Wednesday when the majority of Inland areas are likely to see 40ºc+. 

Maximums across QLD on Monday via BSCH / OCF

 

 

Luckily for those on the Coast, while the temperatures will rise – they aren’t expected to be anywhere near as bad. Maximums are expected to reach the mid 30’s across Interior parts of Coastal districts on Wednesday – however the Coastline itself will be more than tolerable. Similar temperatures are expected across these areas on Thursday as a cool change starts to move through, however maximums are likely to increase across Inland parts of the Wide Bay and South East Coast compared to that of Wednesday with temperatures peaking in the mid 30’s.

Maximums across QLD during Thursday via BSCH / OCF

 

Hot Conditions Increasing For QLD2019-10-13T17:15:32+10:00
13 10, 2019

‘Severe’ Fire Danger Potential Across Southern QLD Again

2019-10-13T16:58:54+10:00

Another round of severe fire conditions are expected across Southern and parts of South East and Central QLD on Monday and Tuesday as hot, dry, gusty conditions dominate the State. Above image – Maximums for Tuesday via BSCH / OCF.

 

Southern and South East QLD are expected to see another round of severe fire danger potential across Monday and Tuesday. This is all being generated by a broad low pressure region across Northern NSW / Southern QLD which is linked to a trough. This combination is drawing in hot and dry air across Northern NSW and across the majority of QLD during the period of Monday to Thursday. However – with the low pressure region in place on Monday and Tuesday, gusty winds are expected to circulate around it which will amplify conditions.

Wind gusts across the State on Monday & Tuesday. Orange >40km/h, Pink >60km/h. Image via Windy

 

On Monday, the focus of the fire threat will be over Southern Inland QLD through the Warrego and Maranoa, however very high fire dangers will persist across the majority of Inland QLD. Across the Warrego & Maranoa, temperatures are expected to peak at around 38-40ºc with winds gusting to between 40 and 60km/h, possibly locally higher during the afternoon. These winds will also likely produce some raised dust across the region.

On Tuesday, the heat spreads further East. Maximums are expected to climb into the mid to high 30’s across Southern & Central QLD, possibly even nudging 40ºc in some areas. This will combine with sporadically gusty winds of 30-50km/h across the Darling Downs & Granite Belt along with the Central Highlands to produce severe fire potential. Strong winds and hot temperatures into the low 40’s are expected across Northern Inland QLD too. 

Fire Danger Risk for Monday and Tuesday across QLD via QFES

 

 

During Wednesday and Thursday the majority of Inland QLD is expected to be covered by ‘very high’ fire dangers and these could increase further, particularly on Thursday when hot conditions persist across the majority of the State along with  the addition of a cool change brings in very strong winds across extensive parts of the State. 

Wind gusts across the State on Thursday. Orange >40km/h, Pink >60km/h. Image via Windy

‘Severe’ Fire Danger Potential Across Southern QLD Again2019-10-13T16:58:54+10:00
12 10, 2019

Typhoon Hagibis likely to directly hit Tokyo

2019-10-12T16:16:00+10:00

Typhoon Hagibis remains a very strong, powerful and dangerous system as it approaches Tokyo today (Saturday) and tomorrow (Sunday). Above image via Windy

 

 

Typhoon Hagibis has been an insanely powerful system. On October 5 and 6, Hagibis was over the open waters of the Western Pacific as a very mundane and weak, messy system. In a matter of only a few hours, it showed some of the most insane intensification you could imagine and that has been recorded – which made it become a strong super typhoon with high-end category 5 strength. 

Since then, Haigibis has maintained super typhoon strength for the best part of 5 days which may come close to being a record. It also peaked at an official intensity of 260km/h sustained winds with gusts to around 330-340km/h however its believed that based on visual aspects of the system, it may have even been stronger between regulated updates and if plane recon was available then it could have been one of the strongest systems ever recorded.

 

Past-Hagibis Track via Wiki – Orange dots (Cat 4), Red dots (Super Typhoon / Cat 5)

 

 

Over the past 12 hours, Hagibis has weakened back to category 4 strength and its expected to maintain a slow weakening pattern upon approach to Tokyo over the next 24 hours. The system is forecast to move directly over Tokyo as a Category 3 system with winds gusting to around 180-200km/h. This kind of wind strength over such a heavily populated and heavily built city is likely to cause heavy damage to buildings which will likely lead to a significant monetary damage bill along with significant power disruptions. Heavy rain is also likely however the worst flooding should be in the mountainous terrain as there system is quite fast moving now. Telecommunications are likely to be disrupted in Tokyo as well as surrounding areas, with many villages between Tokyo and the mountains likely to be cut off from debris and flooding as well. 

 

Forecast track map for Hagibis via JTWC

 

 

While the buildings themselves in Tokyo very well built for earthquake reasons – the force of the wind and debris flying through the air due to the close proximity of the typhoon will likely cause windows to blow out and some weaker structures to collapse which will then become a domino effect as that debris gets caught in the wind and impacts more structures. Its advised that anyone still in Tokyo listens to authorities about where to go and what to do as they will ensure safety is paramount.

 

3 day rainfall via Windy showing very heavy rainfall of 100-300mm and isolated higher falls over Japan.

 

Typhoon Hagibis likely to directly hit Tokyo2019-10-12T16:16:00+10:00
8 10, 2019

Cold Temperatures Returning to SEQLD & NENSW With Possible Frost!

2019-10-08T12:09:30+10:00

As quickly as the temperatures have risen, they’re also expected to drop! Over the next WEEK from Wednesday until Monday or Tuesday next week, morning temperatures are expected to plummet across NENSW and parts of SEQLD. Above image – Minimum temperatures for Tuesday night / Wednesday morning via BSCH / OCF

Forecast minimums for Friday morning via BSCH / OCF

It might seem weird, but this is October for you – the best of both worlds with cold and hot and not much in between. West to South West winds are expected to dominate Northern Inland and Interior parts of NENSW during the next week, and these same winds are expected over Southern QLD and Interior parts of SEQLD. What this means is that clear-ish skies and winds coming off the snow capped Alpine areas along with some cooler air aloft will make the perfect ingredients for temperatures to plummet overnight across the aforementioned regions. 

Frost will also be possible across the Northern Tablelands and Granite Belt – but this should only really apply to be most frost-prone areas given the time of year. Temperatures across these areas are expected to drop below 4ºc and raw data is indicating the below 0ºc is expected across the Northern Tablelands on Wednesday, Thursday and Monday morning’s which would make frost more likely – especially Monday morning after rain moistens the ground better prior to Monday.

Forecast minimums for Monday morning via BSCH / OCF

Daytime maximums are expected to struggle too with Friday and Saturday being the coldest due to showers, rain periods and storms dominating these areas (we will get to that soon enough). Guyra is going for just a maximum of 10ºc on Saturday, Armidale 13ºc, Glen Innes 14ºc, Stanthorpe 15ºc.

Coastal areas during this period may be subject to an onshore flow which will keep overnight temperatures in the double digits range, but daytime maximums will also suffer on Friday and Saturday in particular with Brisbane and Ipswich only getting to about 22ºc and parts ofd SEQLD may struggle to reach 20ºc as well with rain and storms keeping temperatures below 20ºc for most of the day. These kinds of temperatures are the flip of what we’ve just experienced, with temperatures up to 8ºc below average. 

Maximums across SEQLD & NENSW for Saturday via OCF / BSCH

 

Cold Temperatures Returning to SEQLD & NENSW With Possible Frost!2019-10-08T12:09:30+10:00
6 10, 2019

Dangerous Fire Conditions Forecast For Monday & Tuesday!

2019-10-06T11:40:40+10:00

Monday and Tuesday are forecast to produce dangerous fire conditions across the South East quarter of QLD and North East NSW as a combination of strong winds, extreme heat, dry heat and the potential for dry lightning combine! Above image – maximums on Tuesday across SEQLD & NENSW via OCF / BSCH.

 

Monday is expected to pose a significant increase in fire danger potential compared to that experienced over the weekend across SEQLD & NENSW. On Monday, maximums are expected to increase by 6-11ºc across both areas with peak temperatures into the low 40’s. These temperatures will combine with extremely low humidity (in the single digits) away from the Coast with models indicating that winds are likely to push up to around 30-50km/h in SEQLD and 40-60km/h possibly even up to 70km/h in NENSW. This will likely result in severe to locally extreme fire danger potential.

Fire Danger Risk via QFES for Monday.

On Tuesday, conditions are only expected to exponentially WORSEN! A surface trough will become positioned directly along the Coast which will block any sea breeze from occurring. This will push very hot and dry winds into the Coast and likely result in temperatures at least remaining as hot as Monday if not becoming even hotter! Winds are forecast to dramatically increase too with strong to damaging West to South West winds feeding into the trough – across SEQLD we are expected to see gusts of 60-80km/h while in NENSW peak gusts may reach 90-100km/h! There is also the threat of dry thunderstorms as instability increases across both areas but with very dry surface conditions at the surface and very dry conditions aloft, these storms will struggle to even dampen the ground – this will lead to dry lightning posing a major risk. As a result of this, we are likely to see widespread severe to extreme fire danger potential and this may increase further as models become far more honed in on the exact conditions expected. 


Forecast wind gusts across SEQLD & NENSW on Tuedsay. Pink is 60-90km/h, blue is 90km/h+ (damaging threshold). Image via Windy.
Fire Danger potential as of Sunday morning (right) via QFES.

 

Dangerous Fire Conditions Forecast For Monday & Tuesday!2019-10-06T11:40:40+10:00