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31 08, 2020

Say Goodbye to Winter Queensland.

2020-08-31T11:48:59+10:00

Winter is now done and dusted for QLD and any hope of anymore ‘cold’ conditions is long gone as we see temperatures ramp up across the entire week through the majority of the State. Above image via PivotalWeather showing areas in red as above average mid week – which covers most of the State.

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A large and warm air mass is expected to cover most of the State during Monday and Tuesday before an even warmer air mass on Wednesday will enter Western QLD which will be enhanced by North Westerly winds and a trough coming out of the very hot North West NT and Northern WA Kimberley. This warmer air mass will become very slow moving and shift Eastwards during Thursday, Friday and Saturday before exiting off the QLD Coast on Sunday. During Monday and Tuesday, widespread maximums into the 30’s are expected over Inland QLD before temperatures increase into the mid 30’s over Western areas on Wednesday. Across Southern and Central Inland areas, the peak heating will be split across both Thursday and Friday depending on the exact location – with peak temperatures into the 30’s and possibly even nudging the mid 30’s for some areas. For South Eastern QLD the peak heat will be on Saturday although noticeably warmer conditions will be around on Thursday too – this will include some areas of Western Brisbane and Inland parts of the South East Coast pushing into the 30’s. 

OCF maximums for Wednesday via WeatherWatch

While nothing too exceptional is forecast for the Tropics thanks to an onshore breeze containing the heat to some degree, very warm conditions are likely for Northern Inland and the Gulf which is near normal for this time of year as the heat is exceptionally dry through this part of the State. Its unlikely that any records will be broken across the State with this burst of heat – however the main thing to take away is saying goodbye to Winter and welcoming the start of Summer. 

OCF maximums for Friday via WeatherWatch

Say Goodbye to Winter Queensland.2020-08-31T11:48:59+10:00
28 06, 2020

Big Sunrises and Sunsets Could Return to QLD!

2020-06-28T11:54:55+10:00

It looks like there is a ‘chance’ of some big sunsets returning to QLD over the coming week – more so towards the end of the week as some favourable atmospheric conditions come together to produce the right setup on multiple days. Above image via HSC Admin Michelle.

Sunsets are one of those things that when they go off, they’re amazing – but from a forecasting perspective, the best of them either usually occur when conditions are on a knifes edge for being ‘epic’ or extremely underwhelming and this is because it often comes down purely to live conditions as the smallest hindering factor could change the outcome entirely. What we often look for is high level cloud (cirrus, cirrocumulus etc) that fills the sky but isn’t hindered by anything on the horizon. This will allow the bottom or underside of the cloud to be ignited when the sun is setting and the light has a free run between the horizon and the clouds. Any low level clouds can completely hinder this, and they don’t even need to be nearby – they can be 100s of km away. 

High cloud over Southern Inland QLD on Thursday morning. Image via Windy

 

 

This upcoming week though is showing good signs of producing the right conditions and it will just come down to the live conditions on the day as to whether or not one places sees a sea of red, orange, pink or yellow… and another place sees nothing. Models are indicating the arrival of a weak upper trough over Southern QLD on Wednesday night / Thursday morning which will help produce some localised high cloud over Southern Inland QLD (could be good for a Thursday morning sunrise). 

Upper cloud then spreads in bands across Inland QLD and Southern / Central QLD during Friday which may help produce a short lived, but intense sunset for Coastal areas and a more prolonged but possibly not quite as intense sunset over Inland areas. Saturday has some similar potential to Friday as well.

High cloud over various parts of QLD on Friday evening. Image via Windy.

 

The big one which we will monitor closely will be on Sunday evening and Monday morning when an upper trough across Southern and Western QLD and the Northern Territory produces a massive band of high cloud over the majority of the State. We have compiled a side by side view of the high cloud and low cloud which shows its virtually 100% high cloud and 0% low cloud and this may lead to numerous places seeing an amazing sunset on either Sunday night and/or on Monday morning (Jul 6).

Of course none of this is a guarantee, but it could be something to keep in the back of your mind from Wednesday through to the following Monday and hopefully one or two of the days can come off and offer some great photographic opportunities or a relaxing way to finish the work day or weekend!

High cloud (left), low cloud (right) across QLD on Sunday evening and Monday morning. Image via Windy.

Big Sunrises and Sunsets Could Return to QLD!2020-06-28T11:54:55+10:00
20 05, 2020

Very Cold Temperatures Forecast for NSW Ranges

2020-05-20T16:25:19+10:00

Issued Wednesday, May 20th 2020. Freezing conditions are expected to impact large parts of NSW and Victoria but more specifically the NSW Ranges including the Northern Tablelands, Central Tablelands and Snowy Mountains over the next several days.

 

A combination of strong to locally damaging South to South West winds, widespread cloud coverage, rain (and for some places snow) is expected to impact Eastern & North Eastern VIC as well as the Eastern half of NSW. These conditions will all combine to bring well below average temperatures to large parts of NSW, with the Ranges and elevated terrain being particularly vulnerable. While its normal for these kinds of systems to have an impact on the Snowy Mountains with maximum temperatures near or below 0 degrees leading to snow, with damaging winds dropping the feels like temperature to below -10 degrees, maybe even -15 or 20 degrees in the more extreme vigorous circumstances… the Central Tablelands and Northern Tablelands of NSW will be having their fair share with this system too.

 

Across Friday, Saturday, Sunday and possibly into Monday… temperatures are going to struggle to around 8-9 degrees across the Central Tablelands with locations like Orange, Oberon, Lithgow and the Jenolan Caves going for maximums on Friday and/or Saturday of 7 or 8 degrees and during this time, especially with snow around, the temperature will realistically be closer to 2, 3 or 4 degrees. 

 

Across the Northern Tablelands, between Friday and Monday.. Guyra is forecast to not exceed 10 degrees, with the coldest maximum being 8 degrees on Friday. Armidale is going for just 10 degrees on Friday with other areas struggling to reach double digits as well. Wind chill across these areas will likely make it feel between 4 and 8 degrees colder. Minimums across these areas as well will drop to below freezing on numerous mornings which will likely result in a very slow build up in temperatures. 

Maximum temperatures for Saturday across Eastern NSW. Image via www.weatherwatch.net.au

 

Very Cold Temperatures Forecast for NSW Ranges2020-05-20T16:25:19+10:00
19 05, 2020

COLD Temperatures Forecast Across MOST of QLD!

2020-05-19T15:26:15+10:00

Issued Tuesday, May 19th 2020. Queensland is about to experience a significant burst of COLD weather over the period of Thursday until possibly next Monday or Tuesday with maximum temperatures up to 12-16ºc BELOW the May average! This cold weather will be felt as far North as Cairns and the Gulf of Carpentaria! Above image: Temperature anomaly on Saturday afternoon, showing temperatures of up to 16ºc colder than normal – via Tropicaltidbits. 

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This abnormally cold period coming up is expected to be brought on by a unique combination of very cold conations down in Victoria and New South Wales which will be consistently driven into Queensland by relentless Southerly winds. These winds will combine with a series of upper level troughs which will provide the atmosphere with very cold air aloft, as well as several days of widespread showers and rain periods along with very thick cloud coverage which will limit any warmth from penetrating through to the surface. While the peak of the rainfall and thick cloud coverage will be confined to mostly Friday & Saturday – the lingering effects will still be felt beyond Saturday with temperatures taking a while to return back to even remotely near normal. 

Maximum temperatures across Queensland for Friday via www.weatherwatch.net.au – You can see widespread cold conditions amplified across Southern QLD with cool to cold conations extending into the Tropics.

 

Saturday overall is forecast to be the coldest day State-wide, but individual locations may experience slightly colder conditions on Friday or Sunday. There is a high chance that some temperatures may break cold records (for May) during this time. The kinds of temperatures we are looking at include:

South Eastern & Southern QLD:
• Stanthorpe: Maximums of 13ºc Friday & Sunday, 14ºc Saturday & Monday. 
• Toowoomba: Maximums of 14ºc Friday to Sunday.
• Charleville: Maximum of 14ºc on Friday, 16ºc on Saturday & Sunday.
Kingaroy: Maximum of 15ºc Saturday, 16ºc Friday & Sunday. 
• Roma & St George: Maximum of 15ºc on Friday, 17ºc on both Saturday & Sunday. 
• Warwick: Maximums of 16ºc Friday to Sunday. 
• Rockhampton: Maximum of 16ºc Saturday.
• Gladstone: Maximum of 18ºc Saturday. 
• Bundaberg: Maximum of 18ºc Saturday. 20-21ºc Friday & Sunday.
• Brisbane & Ipswich: Maximum of 19ºc on Saturday, 20ºc on Friday & Sunday. 

Central QLD:
• Emerald: Maximum of 15ºc on Saturday. 18ºc on Friday. 
• Moranbah: Maximum of 15ºc on Saturday.
Yeppoon: Maximum of 16ºc Saturday, 20ºc Friday, Sunday & Monday. 
• Charters Towers: Maximum of 17ºc on Saturday. 
• Mackay: Maximum of 19ºc on Saturday, 21ºc on Sunday & Monday.
• Longreach: Maximum of 18ºc Friday, 19ºc Saturday & Sunday. 
• Winton: Maximum of 19ºc Friday & Saturday.

Western QLD:
• Windorah: Maximum of 16ºc Friday. 18ºc Saturday & Sunday. 
• Birdsville: Maximum of 18ºc Friday & Saturday, 20ºc Sunday & Monday.
• 
Mount Isa: Maximum of 20ºc or less from Thursday to Sunday.

Northern QLD:
• Townsville Range: Maximum of 18ºc on Saturday, 19ºc Sunday, 20ºc Friday & Monday.
• Cloncurry: Maximum of 19ºc on Friday, 20ºc on Saturday & Sunday. 
• Burketown: Maximum of 20ºc on Saturday. 
• Normanton: Maximum of 20ºc on Saturday.
• Townsville City: Maximum of 21ºc Saturday. 
• Kowanyama: Maximum of 22ºc on Saturday. 
• Mornington Island: Maximum of 22ºc on Saturday & Sunday. 
• Cairns: Maximum of 24ºc on Saturday & Monday. 

Maximum temperatures across Queensland for Saturday via www.weatherwatch.net.au – You can see the very cold air surging up into Central and parts of Northern QLD!

 

Following these cold maximums… minimum temperatures are also expected to plummet next week across large parts of the State as cold air lingers with drier air and clearer skies returning. This will allow for maximum heat to escape and is part of the reason why temperatures will gradually warm up during the day (less cloud). Some areas like the Granite Belt and Southern Darling Downs may see temperatures push freezing at night during the weekend as well, regardless of the increased cloud and some precipitation around. Snow is NOT forecast. 

Minimum temperatures across Queensland for Sunday morning via www.weatherwatch.net.au – The blue shading indicates temperatures cold enough for frost until ideal conditions.

COLD Temperatures Forecast Across MOST of QLD!2020-05-19T15:26:15+10:00
19 05, 2020

Low to Bring Severe Weather to NSW & Eastern VIC

2020-05-19T12:11:38+10:00

Weather forecast models are coming into agreement about a complex severe weather system impacting NSW and Eastern VIC from late Wednesday into the weekend. This system is expected to feature heavy rain, snow, damaging winds, possible storms with waterspouts and dangerous surf conditions for a number of days. Above image 5-day rainfall accumulation via Windy

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During late Wednesday and into early Thursday, a low pressure system is expected to develop off the NSW South Coast. Over the course of Thursday into Friday, this system is expected to intensify further into a POSSIBLE East Coast Low off the NSW Central Coast and its during this period of Wednesday to Friday that we will likely see the majority of the severe weather take place. The low itself is forecast to be quite complex, as its likely going to be a multi-centred low, which is a broad low pressure region with multiple centres of equal low pressure spread out within the broad area. The system will also see the majority of severe weather occur over the Westerns side, rather than circulating evenly around the entire system – even when it moves away from the Coast. 

Synoptic and Wind Gust Map for Friday across SE AUS showing the complex Low pressure region (blue circle) with embedded Eddies (pink circles), a cold front to the East (green line) and the North East to South East moisture draw (red lines) combined with the colder South West winds (blue lines). Image via Windy.

 

 

The most notable feature out of this system will be heavy rainfall along the NSW Central, Illawarra and South Coast areas initially with high levels of moisture being dragged across these areas resulting in continued rain areas. Models are indicating falls of 100mm+ are expected across areas over mostly the Illawarra which is a notorious hotspot for high rainfall totals with these kinds of setups. Moderate to locally heavy falls are possible as well over the Central Coast including Sydney, and the South Coast but rainfall across these areas should be less constant. This kind of rainfall will likely lead to some flash flooding along with some possible minor or moderate river & creek flooding depending exactly where the heaviest falls occur. Locally higher falls than those being forecast are also possible due to orographic lift. Storms will also be possible specifically on Thursday with increased wind shear created by the low leading to some storms either becoming stationary or slow moving with heavy rain and damaging winds, as well as waterspouts being possible offshore. During the weekend, rainfall is expected to increase with a Southerly wind flow over Eastern VIC leading to some moderate to locally heavy falls over the East Gippsland in excess of 50mm, and possibly up to 100mm. 

 

During Wednesday evening into Thursday, snow is expected to fall over the North East VIC Alps, the NSW Snowy Mountains & ACT Brindabella Ranges and Southern Wilderness areas. This snow should continue throughout Thursday and possibly linger into Friday with a new wave of cold air aloft moving across the region. Snow is also expected to fall over Thursday evening and Friday morning across the Central Tablelands with enough snow forecast to cover the ground. 

Strong winds are likely across the majority of VIC, ACT & NSW during this system’s existence. However across the Alpine regions, Central NSW Tablelands and NSW Central & Southern Coast areas, damaging winds are likely as well. This should lead to widespread wind gusts of 80-100km/h with peak gusts over exposed Coast areas and elevated terrain of 110km/h+. These winds will also combine with seas of 3-4m and peak wave heights of up to 6m over the NSW Central & Southern Coast areas to create unpleasant beach conditions. 

NSW & VIC Snow & Storm potential from Wednesday to Friday. Base image via Windy.

 

Low to Bring Severe Weather to NSW & Eastern VIC2020-05-19T12:11:38+10:00
2 05, 2020

Summary of the 2019-2020 Australian Cyclone Season

2020-05-02T12:10:36+10:00

The 2019-2020 tropical cyclone season for Australia has officially come to an end. The season played out generally as expected when predictions were made back in September and October of 2019, with a slow start to the year, followed by a burst of frequent systems. The finish to the season was quieter than expected, but this wasn’t a surprise in the moment given how the tropics played out. Above image via RAMMB / CIRA of Severe TC Damien. 

 

Back in September / early October 2019, we forecast a total of 10 tropical cyclones for Australia, 5 of those becoming severe (Category 3+) with 4 systems in WA, 2 in the NT and 4 in QLD.  The reality was close to that with 8 firm systems occurring (9 loose, as UESI was technically NOT classed as a cyclone despite producing Category 2 strength winds over Lord Howe Island) – 3 of those were severe with 5 systems in WA, 1 in the NT and 3 in QLD (with UESI being a loose 4th). We had 5 landfalls with the reality being 3. An additional 15 tropical lows were forecast that wouldn’t become tropical cyclones, in reality there ended up being 16. We consider this to be a fairly accurate prediction. 

Summary map of the 2019-2020 Australian Cyclone Season. Image via wikipedia.

 


Lets break down the season.
It was a slow start to the 2019-2020 tropical cyclone season as a strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole and a warmer than normal ENSO (warm side of neutral) delayed the start of the monsoon across the Tropics as the monsoon trough remained over Indonesia and even North of the equator for an extensive period of time. Models were hesitant on a tropical cyclone occurring prior to Christmas (we normally only have 1 maybe 2 anyway prior to Christmas) and this was the case. Models were also very keen on conditions rapidly changing after New Year. On January 4, Cyclone Blake was named in the Indian Ocean and on January 4, a low pressure system over the Timor Sea would eventually become Severe TC Claudia. Blake remained a Category 1 and made landfall over the Western Kimberley while Claudia hightailed it into the Indian Ocean, narrowly missing the Kimberley and intensifying into a Category 3. Claudia ended up being responsible for producing over 500mm in 24hrs for some locations SW of Darwin and broke the NT daily rainfall all-time record. There was then a lull in activity before a new monsoon wave occurred at the start of February and this helped spawn Severe Tropical Cyclone Damien and Cyclone Uesi. Damien intensified quickly and made landfall at Dampier / Karratha as a strong Category 3 system which lead to some damage in the area along with flooding. Uesi on the other hand, bypassed the Pacifc Islands of Vanuatu and New Caledonia as a Category 3 system before weakening to officially become a subtropical cyclone (cyclone without a warm core) in Australian waters where it still maintained Category 2 strength. Esther then formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria 2 weeks later and went on a slow moving rampage over the Gulf and Northern NT into the Northern WA region before back tracking across the NT and into SW QLD and NSW where record-breaking rainfall was recorded. After Esther, things got quiet quickly with Ferdinand becoming a Category 3 system in the Indian Ocean at the end of February, followed by TC Gretel in the Coral Sea during mid March, Cyclone Harold at the start of April was a weak system in Australian waters before racing into the Pacific Island group as a high-end Category 5 monster, and then Cyclone Jeruto moved in from Africa into Australian waters mid April – all of these systems posed no threat to Australia. 

Severe TC Damien making landfall over the Pilbara Coast on February 8th. Image via Weatherzone

 

 

The fall out from the season was the Northern Tropics of Queensland has seen an extremely dry Summer with most areas around 30-50% below average for rainfall. The Northern NT areas are also below average by about 15-20% despite having an extremely active period during mid January to early March (outside of this timeframe its been extremely dry) and its about 15% below average for rainfall across the Northern WA areas. Parts of the Pilbara and North West NT have seen localised phenomenal rainfall due to systems directly impacting these areas, but this is on an extremely localised scale. While Inland QLD has seen no systems track down the middle which was of high hope pre-season. The only area of QLD that really benefited was the Far South West which saw 2 days of rainfall with Esther that shattered records. The benefit of a quiet season has been minimal damage and minimal loss of life directly from these systems.

Australian rainfall anomalies for the TC Season (October 1 to April 30) via BOM.

 

Summary of the 2019-2020 Australian Cyclone Season2020-05-02T12:10:36+10:00
25 04, 2020

Severe Weather LIKELY Across Eastern AUS to Finish April

2020-04-25T11:17:47+10:00

This system is expected to be largely be focused over Wednesday (April 29) and Thursday (April 30) before lingering to a lesser degree into Friday and the weekend (May 1 to 3). This system will be impacting Tasmania, Victoria, New South Wales, ACT & Queensland to large extents and South Australia + the Northern Territory to lesser extents. Damaging winds, rapid temperature drops, severe storms with damaging winds & hail, heavy rain and snow will all feature. Dust will also be a feature with the front specifically.

 

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These maps are temperatures at 700mb (about 3km about the surface) with surface-based wind stream lines. This combination is great for showcasing this upcoming system as you can definitively see the cold front (marked by the red line) with a massive cold pool surging in behind it. Ahead of the cold front, marked in the purple lines, is a warm North to North Westerly breeze which will create fine and sunny conditions with above to well above average temperatures for this time of year – behind the cold front though, marked in yellow – you can see cold South Westerly winds which will combine with moisture to produce showers, rain periods, snow, severe weather (associated mostly with the cold front) and a MASSIVE drop in temperatures.

 

Wednesday 700mb temp map + surface based wind stream lines showing the system. Image via Windy.

 

The most notable severe weather threat from this system will be widespread thunderstorms across Victoria, the ACT, NSW & Southern Inland QLD on Wednesday with storms pushing into North East NSW, Northern NSW & South East QLD on Thursday. During Wednesday, across Northern VIC, Southern & Central Inland NSW and possibly into Northern NSW – there will be strong wind shear – both with speed and direction – that will interact with these storms. This will create an increased risk of supercells and tornadoes across these areas (but more concisely focused over Southern & Central Inland NSW). Regardless of this threat, due to this mid level jet – most storms within the purple shaded area will be either moving fast and/or warned for damaging winds with microbursts being a possibility too. Hail will also feature in storms due to cold air aloft. These storms will move into South Eastern QLD & North Eastern NSW during Thursday where some cells may become severe fro damaging winds – but the overall threat will be lower than Wednesday due to some weakening with the mid level jet. There is a question mark at this stage due to the timing of the front, whether or not storms will reach the Coast in South East QLD.

 


Wednesday storm chances across NSW, VIC & ACT. Base image via Windy.

 

Thursday storm chances across SEQLD & NENSW. Base image via Windy.

Snow totals have been slashed big time from the previous post. However I believe that models just don’t have a good grasp on the snow yet as we often see totals exceed what models say (more often than we see them struggle with the timing of the coldest air and precipitation interacting). However, snow is still expected on the Snowy Mountains, Southern NSW Tablelands and Tasmanian Highlands with good falls expected over Thursday, Friday and Saturday. The Central Tablelands are expecting some snow flurries on Thursday evening into Friday morning as well, and possibly a brief stint on Saturday morning with a narrow window of opportunity pending moisture.

 

10 day snowfall accumulation via Windy.

The Northern Tablelands are more unlikely than likely to see snow at this stage. Some very marginal precipitation is possible on global model data, but the timing looks off. You can see on Friday morning, the 850mb temps (around 1km above the ground) are sitting at 0ºc which is prefect… but the moisture profile is dry, like Sahara Desert dry… it could be more just bitterly cold rather than snow.

 

Friday morning 850mb temperatures & atmospheric sounding explaining why the NT’s may not see snow. Image via BSCH.

One of the promising things will be that this system looks to deliver widespread good rain across NSW with heavier falls over the Snowy Mountains and Central Tablelands, as well as some widespread moderate to heavy falls across the majority of VIC. Most of these areas have already seen an average to well above average month (April) in terms of rainfall, so to see 50-100mm and localised higher falls of up to 150mm around the Snowy Mountains is very promising as a follow up system. Most of this rain will come with the front on Wednesday and Thursday, but some follow up showers, mostly over VIC with the South Westerly flow are expected into the weekend. Unfortunately for Southern QLD and Northern NSW, while some rainfall is expected and it should impact most people – its on the lighter side of things due to the speed of the system and the distance from the moisture source (being the Bight).

 

Forecast 10 day rainfall accumulation via Windy / GFS for NSW, VIC, ACT & Southern QLD.

When we say impacts, this can sometimes mean ‘just’ temperatures, it doesn’t have to mean all. QLD is expected to see a MASSIVE temperature plummet between Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with temperatures dropping between 8 and 12ºc across these 3 days (for some it will be in just a 24hr period). For NSW, you only need to see the difference between Wednesday and Friday to know its going to be a massive drop. Some places are going for up to a 15ºc difference between the 2 days with locations sitting at around 25ºc on Wednesday and not even reaching the teens or even double digits on Friday. To add to this, the wind chill factor could lead to places like Orange with a maximum of 4ºc on Friday seeing a feels like temperature of -5 to -2ºc for most of the day. Even places closer to 10-14ºc may feel as cold as 0ºc thanks to the winds and this will include the Darling Downs and Granite Belt. The temps in SEQLD will drop into the low 20’s which is certainly warmer than the rest – but the winds will again make it feel more like 10-14ºc.

 

Maximum temperatures across QLD for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday via www.weatherwatch.net.au

 

Maximum temperatures across NSW, ACT & VIC for Wednesday and Friday via www.weatherwatch.net.au

Severe Weather LIKELY Across Eastern AUS to Finish April2020-04-25T11:17:47+10:00
28 03, 2020

Tornado Outbreak possible across Illinois on Saturday

2020-03-28T13:14:52+10:00

Its only early in the season (technically still pre-season), but the United States is expected to see one of the stronger storm days of the season evolve during Saturday with a tornado outbreak possible across Illinois and immediate surrounding States. Above image showing the Storm Prediction Centre Categorial Risk (which may be upgraded further). 

 

A deep low pressure system is expected to move through the Midwest (Nebraska, Kansas and into Missouri and Iowa) during Saturday with a cold front attached to it. This cold front is expected to draw in excessive amounts of moisture into a triple point wind convergence and warm sector that will create an extremely favourable environment for severe storms and supercells to develop in a line across Eastern Iowa and Eastern Missouri before maturing and spreading throughout Illinois and into Western Kentucky and Indiana as well as the Great Lakes region.

The focus of this threat will be surrounding the potential for a tornado outbreak across Illinois, which will include Chicago City and the immediate surrounding areas – an extremely densely populated region of not just Illinois, but America as a whole. The main tornado threat will be in a narrow window stretching from mid afternoon to around sunset, with storms weakening post-sunset as daytime heating eases and the cold front shifts too far away from the low pressure system. The parameters involved in this setup are off the charts for not just tornadoes, but long tracked and strong tornadoes. Supercells will also yield a giant hail threat as well as damaging to locally destructive straight line winds. There are very high expectations that the Storm Prediction Centre based on the available data will upgrade to a ‘HIGH’ risk with an expansive ‘MODERATE’ risk area. 

Helicity swaths showing areas of rotation in thunderstorms (supercells) moving across Illinois on Saturday. The stronger the helicity swath (the orange, red, purple and blue colours) – the stronger the rotation, and the more potential there is of tornadoes with those cells. Image via HRRR model / COD Weather.

 

This setup is scarily similar to the November 17, 2013 tornado outbreak across the same region which produced 73 confirmed tornadoes across a 10 hour period. The way that day evolved is synoptically almost identical to this setup we are forecasting at the moment. The hope is that morning convection (rain, storms and cloud cover) could hinder daytime heating and lower the overall thunderstorm threat. 

Data from the November 17, 2013 outbreak which is eerily similar to this setup. Image via the Storm Prediction Centre archives.

 

Tornado Outbreak possible across Illinois on Saturday2020-03-28T13:14:52+10:00
7 02, 2020

EXTREME RAINFALL TO POSE MAJOR FLOOD THREAT ACROSS EASTERN NSW

2020-02-07T11:32:17+10:00

** EXTREME RAINFALL TO POSE MAJOR FLOOD THREAT ACROSS EASTERN NSW **

Eastern NSW, in particular Central Eastern NSW (from about Gosford to Nowra) is looking at some very heavy to extreme rainfall accumulations over the next several days. The combination of a Black Nor’Easter and convergence zone will lead to excessive rainfall occurring over the same areas, leading to major flooding becoming a risk.

 

 

Widespread falls across Eastern NSW including fire zones in the South East are likely to be in the 100-200mm range. Very heavy falls on top of what has already fallen of 200-300mm are likely over the Mid North Coast & Hunter. The heaviest rain in the vicinity of 200-400mm likely and potential falls of up to 500-600mm is expected from Sydney / Gosford down to Nowra. This may include back to back days of 200mm+ over the weekend for the Illawarra.

 

This kind of rainfall has the potential to produce MAJOR flooding across a very populated area. Flash flooding is inevitable with this kind of rainfall however widespread minor to moderate creek and river flooding and some MAJOR river and creek flooding is also LIKELY depending on where the highest falls occur.

It is also worth noting that landslides are likely over Southern NSW and potentially over the Blue Mountains with heavy rainfall likely impacting fire zones and the unsettled & fragile ground giving way.

 

 

There is also the potential for some waterspouts along the NSW Coast from the Hunter to the Illawarra along the convergence zone where winds will be turning with height. This isn’t a big threat, but its one worth noting.

Image: 4 day rainfall accumulation via www.weatherwatch.net.au Without our premium members support we wouldn’t exist to provide the huge amount of live updates, forecasts, warnings and information that we do. Sign up today > https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/

EXTREME RAINFALL TO POSE MAJOR FLOOD THREAT ACROSS EASTERN NSW2020-02-07T11:32:17+10:00
13 12, 2019

Very Dangerous, Record-Challenging Heatwave Forecast To Sweep Across Australia!

2019-12-13T20:11:36+10:00

A significant heatwave is set to move across Australia, challenging the 50ºc threshold and All-Time Australian record! Every state is expected to be impacted with the worst of the heat across Western Australia and South Australia. Above image – Forecast maximums on Thursday via OCF / WeatherWatch (the dark blue spot is >50ºc).

While there are plenty of unofficial 50ºc+ temperatures recorded in seasons gone.. there are only 3 official 50ºc temperatures recorded in Australian history – those being January 2 & 3 at Oodnadatta in Northern SA (50.7 & 50.3ºc respectively) and 50.5ºc at Mardie in WA. A big reason for this is that many areas that ‘could’ have reached 50ºc don’t have official stations to record the data… thats about to change this week.


A VERY DANGEROUS heatwave is expected to move across Australia. The timing of this heatwave will be different for everyone with the system already in place across South West WA which is breaking records. Its expected to intensify over Southern WA over the weekend and into next week whilst pushing in South Australia. Maximums across Wednesday (Dec 18th) to Friday (Dec 20th) are expected to absolute roast! Numerous locations across Inland SA, Western SA and South East WA are forecast to reach 48ºc+ with some locations tipped to nudge 50ºc and possibly challenge the All-time Australian record. This heat will move into Adelaide with 4 straight 40ºc+ days from Tuesday to Friday and then into Northern VIC and Inland NSW from Wednesday to Saturday and possibly beyond where peak temperatures may nudge the high 40’s.

 

Locations such as Forrest in SE WA, Port Augusta, Kyancutta, Wudinna, Kimba, Tarcoola, Coober Pedy, Andamooka, Mount Ive, Roxby Downs, Woomera are all in line to potentially reach 50ºc with all of these locations looking at 48ºc+ on forecasts and some above 49ºc on raw data. 50ºc has never been officially recorded in Australia in December. For numerous locations, December records are LIKELY to be SHATTERED by several degrees!

Forecast maximums for Australia on Wednesday via OCF / WeatherWatch. Pink >47ºc, light blue >48ºc, dark blue >50ºc.

Eastern parts of NSW will feel a 1 day burst of heat on Thursday with maximums into the mid 40’s across areas away from the Coastline. While Eastern QLD will see the heat into the weekend as well and towards Christmas with maximums again into the 40’s over SEQLD and into the mid 40’s for much of the week over Inland QLD. For Tasmania and Southern VIC it won’t be dramatic, but it’ll be a change from recent weeks where Winter has lingered. 

Forecast maximums for Australia on Friday via OCF / WeatherWatch. Pink >47ºc, light blue >48ºc, dark blue >50ºc.

There is a major concern with the cool change. While its expected to drop temperatures by 12-18ºc between days, the change is likely to bring winds of 50km/h+ with it and gusts nearing 80-90km/h on the latest data. These winds coupled with temperatures into the high 40’s is disastrous for fire conditions. This will be something to monitor closely. These temperatures are also extremely dangerous to human health with fit adults succumbing to heat stress VERY QUICKLY. It has the potential to pose a risk to human life for those who are directly impacted for excessive periods of time – and this includes anyone, but especially the elderly, young, pregnant and ill. 

Further updates will apply to various areas in the lead up!


Very Dangerous, Record-Challenging Heatwave Forecast To Sweep Across Australia!2019-12-13T20:11:36+10:00
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