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18 01, 2019

Friday January 18th 2019 Heatwave Summary!

Another day of heat… another day of records.. Today the high end heating was far more condensed as cloud cover and a shift in trough position limited the heating across VIC, large parts of SA and the majority of WA. The records themselves weren’t in the individual temperatures, but now the streaks that have accumulated after several days. Considering these areas are naturally hot during Summer, its rather impressive and a massive eye opener as to the intensity of longevity of this heatwave when past events such as 2017,  2013, 2009, 2004, 1990, 1981, 1973 and 1960 all didn’t match some of the feats that several towns recorded this time around.

 

Top temps:
• Tibooburra (NSW) 46.9ºc
• Borrona Downs (NSW) 46.8ºc
• Smithvile (NSW) 46.8ºc
• Birdsville (QLD) 46.6ºc
• Moomba (SA) 46.5ºc
• Noona (NSW) 46.4ºc
• Condoblin (NSW) 46.1ºc
• Oodnadatta (SA) 46.0ºc
• Wilcannia (NSW) 46.0ºc
• Mount Hope (NSW) 45.9ºc
• White Cliffs (NSW) 45.9ºc
• Delta (NSW) 45.7ºc
• Cobar (NSW) 45.6ºc
• Cobar Airport (NSW) 45.6ºc
• Jervois (NT) 45.6ºc
• Ballera (QLD) 45.4ºc
• Bourke (NSW) 45.3ºc
• Fowlers Gao (NSW) 45.2ºc

 

Extra Notes:
• Canberra recorded 40.1ºc today, thats the 4th consecutive day above 40ºc which has never been recorded on any of Canberra’s observation stations.
• Oodnadatta recorded its 5th straight 46ºc day for the first time ever, surpassing many occurrences of 4 straight days. 
• Oodnadatta recorded its 13th 45ºc day temperature since Christmas – this has tied the record set last year for number of 45ºc days in an entire Summer for the station!
• Birdsville recorded its 7th straight day above 45ºc for the first time ever, beating the previous record of 6 set in 2013. This is also the 13th day above 45ºc for Birdsville this Summer.
• Wilcannia has recorded 5 straight days above 46ºc which is a new record
• Fowlers Gap has now recorded 5 straight days above 45ºc which is a new record.
• Cobar has now recorded 3 straight 45ºc days for potentially the first time ever.
• Bourke has now recorded 3 straight 45ºc days for the first time since 2013
• Not listed is Camooweal and Cloncurry who have now both extended the QLD record to 34 straight days above 40ºc for an individual location. 
• Not listed as well is Narrandera who recorded 44.6ºc today, making this the first time ever that 5 consecutive 44ºc days have been recorded at the station. 
• Deniliquin recorded 43.9ºc which makes it the hottest 5 day period for the town as well when combined with the previous 4 days.
• Forbes has now recorded 4 straight 44ºc days for the first time ever as well.
• Condoblin has now recorded its 3 hottest January days ever, in the past 3 days – all being the record of 45.9ºc set prior to 2019. This also makes it the first time ever that the town has recorded 3 straight 46ºc days for any month.

 

18 01, 2019

Hottest Night In Australian History Smashes Records!

Last night has now become officially the hottest night in Australian history, not just because the all-time national record was broken – but the number of locations that had individual record breaking nights is phenomenal! A large portion of Inland NSW dominated the temperatures overnight, with pockets of South West QLD and North East South Australia helping to accumulate the locations on the list. 6 locations recorded their hottest night ever with the Australian record being broken twice. The reason last night was so much hotter came down to much more widespread extreme heat covering these areas yesterday with light cloud cover coming in overnight and trapping the heat. Hotter air aloft got mixed down and when that wasn’t able to escape, the temperature just couldn’t drop. Natural cooling was expected to allow for a sudden 1 hour drop like normal and prevent a lot of these records from occurring, but even that wasn’t enough!


• Noona (NSW) 35.9ºc – NEW Australian Record!!
• Borrona Downs (NSW) 35.6ºc – Tied Australian Record!!
• Delta (NSW) 34.2ºc
• Tibooburra (NSW) 34.2ºc – New all-time record 
• White Cliffs (NSW) 34.2ºc – New all-time record
• Moomba (SA) 33.4ºc – Hottest night in 15 years
• Oodnadatta (SA) 33.4ºc
• Fowlers Gap (NSW) 33.3ºc – New all-time record
• Cobar Airport (NSW) 33.2ºc – New all-time record
• Ballera (QLD) 32.9ºc – Hottest night in 13 years
• Birdsville (QLD) 32.8ºc
• Cobar (NSW) 32.6ºc
• Giriliambone (NSW) 32.6ºc
• Mount Hope (NSW) 32.2ºc
• Condoblin (NSW) 31.5ºc – 0.1ºc shy of the all-time record
• Smithville (NSW) 31.5ºc
• Windorah (QLD) 31.1ºc
• Yanco (NSW) 30.9ºc – Hottest night in 9 years
• Brewon (NSW) 30.9ºc
• Broken Hill (NSW) 30.4ºc
• Mulurulu (NSW) 30.4ºc
• Narrandera (NSW) 30.4ºc
• Walgett (NSW) 30.3ºc
• Ivanhoe (NSW) 30.2ºc
• Roxby Downs (SA) 30.2ºc
• Coober Pedy (SA) 30.1ºc

Weatherzone data at 4am Friday EDT clearly shows a large portion of Inland NSW failing to drop. Noona was still 39ºc at this time!
Image via Weatherzone

 

Extra Notes:
• During this heatwave, NSW has recorded 7 temperatures above 34ºc for highest minimums – 2 prior to last night and 5 last night alone. Prior to 2019, the NSW record was 34.0ºc set in 1994 at Ivanhoe. So the 7 hottest minimum temperatures have occurred this month in NSW history. Along with several others entering the top 10 due to ties.
• Tibooburra has recorded its hottest 2 nights ever on back to back nights now.
• Fowlers Gap has now recorded its 4 hottest January nights over the last 4 nights, with 2 of them breaking the all-time record (Tuesday with 33.2ºc and then last night re-broke that)
• Condoblin has recorded back to back 31ºc nights for the first time ever. Prior to 2019, the record was 31.5ºc – recorded in both January and February. Earlier this month it hit 31.6ºc as a minimum, 2 nights ago the town recorded 31.5ºc. So this month has essentially seen the 3 hottest nights for Condoblin.

 

17 01, 2019

Thursday, January 17th 2019 Heatwave Summary

Another day of ridiculous heat has come to a close across large parts of Inland Australia. Today was largely dominated by Northern and North East SA, South West QLD and a huge chunk of Inland NSW. Another 2 locations have tipped the 48ºc mark – both new locations for this heatwave. 14 locations have hit 47ºc today, 24 above 46ºc and 35 above 45ºc. Another new all-time record has been hit as well, bringing that total up to double digits for this event.

 

Top temps:

  • Tibooburra (NSW) 48.2ºc – 0.2ºc shy of the all-time record

  • Noona (NSW) 48.1ºc – Hottest day recorded (short records)

  • Smithville (NSW) 47.8ºc

  • Wilcannia (NSW) 47.8ºc

  • Marree (SA) 47.6ºc

  • Delta (NSW) 47.5ºc

  • Oodnadatta (SA) 47.5ºc

  • Bourke (NSW) 47.4ºc – Hottest day in 5 years

  • Ivanhoe (NSW) 47.4ºc – 0.6ºc shy of the January record

  • Ballera (QLD) 47.3ºc

  • Cobar Airport (NSW) 47.2ºc – New January record / 0.1ºc shy of the all-time record

  • Moomba (SA) 47.1ºc

  • Borrona Downs (NSW) 47.0ºc

  • White Cliffs (NSW) 47.0ºc

  • Roxby Downs (SA) 46.9ºc

  • Cobar (NSW) 46.8ºc

  • Mount Hope (NSW) 46.8ºc

  • Condoblin (NSW) 46.7ºc – New all-time record

  • Fowlers Gap (NSW) 46.6ºc – 0.2ºc shy of the all-time record

  • Birdsville (QLD) 46.4ºc

  • Coober Pedy (SA) 46.4ºc

  • West Wyalong (NSW) 46.3ºc

  • Woomera (SA) 46.3ºc

  • Port Augusta (SA) 46.2ºc

  • Girilambone (NSW) 45.8ºc

  • Mulurulu (NSW) 45.8ºc

  • Leigh Creek (SA) 45.7ºc

  • Kapooka 45.5ºc

  • Brewon (NSW) 45.4ºc

  • Forbes (NSW) 45.4ºc

  • Griffith (NSW) 45.4ºc

  • Narrandera (NSW) 45.4ºc

  • Yulara (NT) 45.4ºc

  • Yanco (NSW) 45.3ºc – 0.3ºc shy of the January record set yesterday

  • Wagga Wagga (NSW) 45.2ºc

     

    Weatherzone temperatures as of 3:30PM EDT on January 17th, 2019

     

Notes:

  • This is the fifth day in a row somewhere in Australia has exceeded 48ºc and the 11th day since Christmas

  • 9 seperate locations have recorded 48ºc during this heatwave, with Tarcoola managing it twice. Somewhere in the vicinity of 30+ individual locations have hit 47ºc+ in 4 days, many doing it multiple times.

  • Adelaide has recorded 4 straight 40ºc days for the first time since 2014

  • Canberra has recorded 3 straight 40ºc days (41.4ºc today) for potentially the first time ever – 4 straight days has never been done before for the City.

  • Port Augusta has recorded 4 straight 45ºc days for the first time ever

  • Birdsville has recorded 6 straight days above 45ºc for the first time since 2013

  • Moomba has recorded 5 straight 46ºc days for the first time and back to back 47’s for the first time since 2013

  • Marree has recorded 4 straight 47ºc days for the first time in 46 years

  • Narrandera, NSW has recorded 4 straight 45ºc days for the first time ever – breaking the January record twice and all-time record once during that 4 day stretch

  • Coober Pedy has recorded 4 straight 46ºc+ days for the first time ever

  • Wilcannia has recorded 4 straight 46ºc+ days for the first time ever and back to back 47’s for the first time since 2013

  • Ivanhoe back to back 47ºc+ and 4 straight 46ºc+ days for the first time ever,

  • Fowlers Gap has now recorded 2 of its 3 hottest days ever in the past 2 days

  • Condoblin has now recorded its 2 hottest January days ever in the past 2 days

  • The last 4 days for Yanco, NSW have all exceeded the January record prior to 2019

  • Bourke has recorded back to back 46ºc+ days for the first time in January in 5 years

     

17 01, 2019

Scorching Night Breaks Records – January 17th 2019

To add to the extreme heat yesterday, last night was an absolute scorcher across many areas with the majority of Inland NSW being covered by relentless heat in particular. It took until after midnight for Fowlers Gap, White Cliffs and Wilcannia to properly drop below 40ºc with White Cliffs and Wilcannia still hovering in the upper 30’s until just before sunrise. 4 all-time records were broken as well as NSW recording its 2nd and 3rd hottest minimum temperatures ever (both would’ve been records if Borrona Downs didn’t record a hotter night a few nights ago).
 

• Tibooburra (NSW) 34.0ºc – New all-time record

• Smithville (NSW) 33.9ºc – New all-time record

• White Cliffs (NSW) 33.1ºc – 0.2ºc shy of the 1982 all-time record

• Borrona Downs (NSW) 32.9ºc

• Ballera (QLD) 32.4ºc

• Delta (NSW) 32.2ºc

• Condoblin (NSW) 31.5ºc – Tied all-time record / New January record

• Noona (NSW) 31.5ºc

• Oodnadatta (SA) 31.5ºc

• Cobar Airport (NSW) 31.1ºc – Hottest night in 13 years

• Cobar (NSW) 30.9ºc

• Windorah (QLD) 30.2ºc

• Kapooka (NSW) 30.0ºc

• Woomera (SA) 29.9ºc

• Wagga Wagga (NSW) 29.8ºc – Tied all-time record / New January record

• Yanco (NSW) 29.8ºc – Tied hottest night in 9 years

• Girilambone (NSW) 29.6ºc

• Birdsville (QLD) 29.4ºc

• Marree (SA) 29.3ºc

• West Wyalong (NSW) 29.3ºc

• Wilcannia (NSW) 29.2ºc

• Bourke (NSW) 29.0ºc

• Moomba (SA) 28.9ºc

• Forbes (NSW) 28.6ºc

• Coober Pedy (SA) 28.4ºc

• Ernabella (SA) 28.4ºc

• Ivanhoe (NSW) 28.4ºc

• Yunta (SA) 28.0ºc

• Broken Hill (NSW) 28.0ºc

 

Scorching temperatures being recorded at 3:30am across large portions of NSW. Image via Weatherzone

 

Notes:

• Tibooburra’s 34.0ºc would’ve been a new NSW record however Borrona Downs (a new station located just South East of Tibooburra) recorded 34.6ºc as a minimum a few nights ago. Its also the 4th straight night above 30ºc for the first time in any month since January 31 to February 4th 2006 (5 straight nights).

• Smithville’s 33.9ºc would’ve have tied the NSW all-time record if it wasn’t for Tibooburra and Borrona Downs.

• Cobar has now gone 4 straight nights above 30ºc – something that has never occurred before for the station.

• Last night was the 10th straight night for Windorah to not drop below 28.8ºc (9 of the 10 nights above 29, 6 of the 10 above 30ºc)

 

 

14 01, 2019

Canberra is about to bake in sizzling heat!

While large parts of the country brace themselves for maximums to climb up to 10-14ºc above average and well into the 40’s. We cant forget the ACT which is expected to see its most intense run of heat since 2014 as the Nation’s Capital bakes under sizzling conditions.

 

For a place that receives frost regularly across Winter and even snow sometimes, Canberra isn’t foreign to sizzling Summer heat. This round of heat though is expected to one hell of a round as temperatures across the ACT and Nation’s Capital bake up to 12ºc above average! The intense heat is expected to start today with maximums pushing into the mid 30’s. During the period of Tuesday through to Friday though, the maximum is only expected to climb with 4 straight days of 39ºc+ and each day challenging the 40ºc mark. Despite a cool change attempting to impact the area over the weekend, Saturday is still likely to exceed 35ºc again before the change moves through.

 

Its certainly not rivalling the Inland NSW or even Inland AUS temperatures that we are seeing over the previous few days or likely to see over the course of the next week. But for Canberra, if the region does surpass 39ºc for 4 straight days, or 35ºc for 6 straight days – then it will be the most intense period of heat since January / February of 2014 (5 years ago). Back then, Canberra had 2 severe heatwaves which produced 4 straight days of 39ºc+ (3 of them above 40) in mid January, followed by 6 straight days of 37ºc+ at the end of January and start of February. 

As the change moves through on Saturday, we may see fire threats increase due to high temperatures, prolonged heating causing the dry to significant dry out, as well as strong winds. There may be some thunderstorms with the change too which of course means lightning that could initiate fire developments. This will be something to watch and monitor over the course of the next week.

OCF Forecast Maximums for Thursday via BSCH

 

13 01, 2019

Widespread Significant Heat to Sweep NSW This Week!

The entirety of Inland NSW is about to cop a week of relentless searing heat, while areas closer to the Coast may see their hottest run of days in 8 years! Above image – Maximums for Wednesday via BSCH / OCF.

 

A large and ever strengthening heatwave is expected to park itself over South Eastern AUS including a very large portion of NSW for the next week. The heat is expected to develop over Inland areas on Monday where widespread maximums are lielky to climb into the mid 40’s and around 8-12 degrees above the January average (well and truly above heatwave thresholds). This heat is then expected to linger, and may even intensify across the middle of the week where maximums could push the mid to high 40’s and challenge some localised records across Inland NSW. It wont be until Saturday when a cool change starts to push through that areas may see the temperature properly start to drop. Places like White Cliffs, Wilcannia, Tibooburra are expected to see 6 straight days above 45ºc with some days nudging 47-48ºc. Areas like Broken Hill, Bourke, Cobar, Hillston, Ivanhoe, Griffith, Condoblin, Dubbo, Wagga Wagga are expected to see peak temperatures just as high, but the full blown heat lasting around 4-5 days not 6-7 days. 

OCF Forecast Maximums for NSW via BSCH / OCF for Monday.

 

Across Eastern districts, Monday will warm up, but it won’t be too bad. From Tuesday until Friday though, areas like Western Sydney and the Hunter Valley are likely to exceed 40ºc each day and possibly nudge the mid 40’s on 1 or 2 days in isolated areas. A run of 4 straight 40ºc days hasn’t occurred in Penrith since 2011. While in Sydney it will be a lot cooler, but abnormally warm for a prolonged period of time. The City is only expected to push 30ºc+ for 5 straight days with Saturday being the hottest on 36ºc – but this would be just the 2nd time in the last 10 years that Sydney has exceeded 30ºc for 5 or more straight days – the last time being in February 2011 where it was 30ºc+ for 7 straight days.

OCF Forecast Maximums for NSW via BSCH / OCF for Saturday.

 

13 01, 2019

Victoria is about to bake in a multi-day scorcher!

Large parts of Victoria, especially the North, are about to experience some revolting heat which is likely to see drought conditions worsen and bushfire threats increase. Above image Maximum temperatures for Tuesday via BSCH / OCF.

 

A significant heatwave moving across the Country, developing over in the Pilbara are few days ago is expected to make its way to Victoria on Monday. A general South West to Westerly flow across the State should limit the heat though to the high 30’s across Southern districts including Greater Melbourne and the lower 40’s across the North. During Tuesday and Wednesday however, the heat is expected to scorch across the North as winds veer more from the West to North West across the region. This heat should then hang around through Thursday before finally easing on Friday as a trough moves through acting as a cool change. 

 

Through Monday to Thursday, areas across the North are likely to see maximums of 43ºc+ each day, with Tuesday and Wednesday posing a threat for temperatures to likely exceed 45ºc and possibly reach 46 or maybe even 47ºc. Even though it does get hot across these areas… if Mildura was to exceed 46ºc, it would be the first time since 1990 that Mildura has recorded 46ºc in January. For areas across the South, the heat won’t be as intense due to a seabreeze impacting the intensification process, this may make it slightly muggier than usual for these kinds of temps though. Melbourne is expected back to back days into the high 30’s.

OCF Forecast Maximums for VIC on Monday via BSCH

 

Thankfully, across the areas that are seeing the mid to high 40’s – winds won’t be too strong. The pure temperature and lack of humidity though will be enough to elevate fire dangers and likely lead to total fire bans – but at least any fires won’t be escalated by winds and hopefully will be contained.

During Friday, a change is expected to move through and produce scattered showers and storms later on. This will hopefully impact most areas and allow for a sudden drop in temperature as well as some hopefully somewhat beneficial rainfall – although that might be pushing the hope barrier a bit. We will see how that plays out though. Some cells could be severe!

12 01, 2019

Storms Forecast to Return to NENSW

After a ridiculously long period of time with barely a shower, let alone a storm during the peak of storm season… it looks like North East NSW may start to see some action return over the course of next week. Above image via Windy (GFS model) showing 10 day rainfall (1-5 day rainfall is next to nil across the region).

 

HIGH DETAIL, DAILY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE HERE.

 

A surface trough is expected to bounce around the North East of the State during the course of next week, mostly around the Northern Ranges. This trough is expected to draw in increased moisture and combine that with some strong heating as a heatwave moves across the remainder of the State. This combination is likely to produce instability across North East NSW from at least Wednesday onwards, but some weak instability may develop on Monday or Tuesday as well. 

Thursday SWEAT values showing the potential for some storms Inland from the Coast via BSCH.

 

 

While models are jumping around with potential. It seems more likely than not, ISOLATED storms should develop across the region from Wednesday onwards with some days holding the potential for more scattered activity. Isolated means that only a few places may be impacted, not everyone. Towards the weekend as a change starts to impact the region – thats when we may see some of the more severe and scattered activity develop. There are some places that may miss out altogether due to the overall intricacies of the forecast, these places may only see up to 10mm across the entire week, maybe even less. For those who are impacted by storms, and even multiple storms across several days… there is some hope for 25-50mm occurring. These kinds of falls though are expected to be extremely isolated, so don’t put all your eggs in 1 basket about getting that much rain.

Friday instability values showing some isolated potential across the Ranges and Northern Inland NSW. Image via BSCH.

 

 

There is a chance that some days may hold potential for South East QLD and Southern QLD as well, however North East and Northern NSW are the more likely areas for now. As always, daily forecasts are expected to change. Some days may increase storm potential, some days may see lower storm potential. This is just a generalised mention that CURRENTLY models are showing the potential for several days of sore potential. 

SWEAT values showing scattered to widespread storms with some severe on Saturday. This is 7 days out and highly subject to changes. Image via BSCH

 

12 01, 2019

Cyclone Watch issued for Timor Sea!

Models are coming into agreement that a tropical low is LIKELY to develop over the Timor Sea and is at least a 50%, if not closer to a 75-80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone next week! Above image showing the Tropical Cyclone Watch area via HSC.

 

FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS AND HIGH DETAIL MAPS – CLICK HERE

 

The next tropical wave is expected to develop over the Oceania region over the next few days and remain in the region over the next week. This setup has been showing signs now for a number of days for producing at least a strong tropical low, if not a tropical cyclone over the Timor Sea. In the last 24 hours, many models have followed suit of the European Model which picked the system up first (again). The only major model not showing any signs of a tropical cyclone developing is the American model (GFS) which has had a tendency to under-read wind strengths with tropical cyclones so far this season. It has a tropical low strength system over the same period. 

Out of the main models which are indicating tropical cyclone development to be likely, several of them are showing signs that this system will develop into a strong (Category 3+) tropical cyclone. All models are in agreement on the timing, with a tropical low developing late on Sunday or during Monday and then rapidly intensifying into a tropical cyclone during Tuesday. 

While the initial development may not pose a major threat to any land masses in Australia… the monsoon flow generated by the system is expected to increase showers and thunderstorms across the Northern NT and Kimberley where good rainfall is expected over the next week. The East Timor region is also expected to be heavily impacted, but the overall impacts will depend on exactly how close to the region the system develops. At this stage, strong to damaging gales are possible over the region with the strongest winds over the Southern Coast, along with likely widespread heavy rain in the vicinity of 100-200mm which may lead to some flash flooding.

 

EC Forecast 5 day rainfall – Orange 50mm+, red 100mm+, purple 200mm+ via Windy.

 

12 01, 2019

Excessive Heat Tipped To Scorch SA!

South Australia is about to be smacked with a week long round of heat that is expected to challenge some records! Above image via BSCH for Maximum Temperatures on Tuesday.

 

 

From Sunday until at least the latter part of next week, large parts of South Australia are set to bake under a relentless heatwave. The heat is expected to be fuelled by a number of ingredients. A large very slow moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is expected to drift slowly North over the course of the week which will block a lot of weather systems coming across the Bight. This high will also combine with a series of surface troughs moving across South Australia which should lead to hot and dry North to North West winds being channelled across the State.

The worst of the heat from a State perspective is expected to be during the period of Monday through to Wednesday. During this time, Adelaide is expected to nudge or exceed 40ºc on all 3 days. If Adelaide was to exceed 40ºc each day, it would be the first time since January 2014 that such a feat had occurred for the city. There is the chance Wednesday could be a scorcher too, but this is highly dependant on the timing of a Southerly change brought on by a large high moving eventually across the Bight. If the change comes earlier in the day, it may struggle to reach the mid 30’s (likely to be a hot night, so minimums will already be elevated), if it comes later then it could be another 40ºc day… at this stage its tipped to be around 37ºc (playing the fence).

 

OCF Forecast Maximums for South Australia on Wednesday via BSCH

 

 

The heat will be much worse further North though and its expected to be much more prolonged. Many locations across Northern SA hit 45ºc+ during Friday, and something similar is expected today (Saturday). Sunday through to at least Friday is likely to exceed 45ºc as well for these areas. If Oodnadatta hits 45ºc each day, then that will bring the Summer tally to 13 days above 45ºc (all of them occurring after Christmas). This would tie last years record of days above 45ºc and almost triple the average. With more Summer heat likely across the next 6 weeks – the record should be eclipsed later in the month. The main heat will as well be on Monday to Wednesday where some locations are likely to reach 48 or 49ºc and challenge some daily records as well. The scorching daytime temps won’t ease overnight either, with many locations in the North likely to sit in the mid to high 30’s for much of the night, and may fail to drop below 30ºc on many nights as well.

There is a chance that parts of SA could hit 50ºc on both Thursday and Friday – whether or not this happens over a weather station is another thing, but if it did, then it would be the first time since 1998 somewhere recorded 50ºc officially!

 

OCF Forecast Maximums for South Australia on Friday via BSCH