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21 09, 2017

Record Breaking Heat to sweep NSW this weekend

Issued 3pm Thursday September 21st 2017. Large areas of NSW are expected to be under the pump from a potentially record breaking heatwave between Friday and Sunday which is likely to produce significant fire threats! Above image: Saturday Forecast Maximums via BSCH / OCF


On Friday, a surface trough situated along the Coast of NSW and VIC is likely to help draw in constant North-West winds across the majority of NSW. These hot and dry winds are likely to become gusty over Western parts of NSW which will see the temperature skyrocket into the mid 30’s as well as the fire threat significantly climbing.

Forecast Wind Gusts via WindyTV for NSW and VIC - Pink is over 70km/h, Blue/Aqua is over 90km/h

Forecast Wind Gusts via WindyTV for NSW and VIC – Pink is over 70km/h, Blue/Aqua is over 90km/h

On Saturday, a trough is expected to move through VIC and Southern parts of NSW which will see wind speeds significantly increase across the entirety of Inland NSW thourghout the afternoon, where wind gusts of 70-90km/h are expected and isolated higher gusts of 100km/h are possible. These winds, coupled with extremely low humidity (below 10%) and high temperatures of 35-40ºc are expected to create dangerous fire conditions. Some locations in the North-West of the State are tipped to reach 39-41ºc during the afternoon, this will be record breaking as NSW has never recorded a 40ºc day in September. The North-West winds are also expected to influence the Coastline, with areas like Sydney going for 33ºc and the Western suburbs up to 37ºc. The Hunter may also see temperatures climb into the high 30’s. Total fire bans are likely to be issued across large parts of the State on Friday.

On Sunday, conditions are expected to cool back into the 20’s and low 30’s over the majority of NSW, however the Central and Northern Coastlines as well as Northern Inland districts are still tipped to reach the mid to high 30’s with fire threats remaining elevated through these areas. 

 

Preliminary Fire Danger Threat Map via NSW Rural Fire Service for Saturday

Preliminary Fire Danger Threat Map via NSW Rural Fire Service for Saturday

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8 07, 2017

Rare Phenomenon covers South-East QLD & Brisbane City

A rare phenomenon swept Brisbane yesterday creating the perfect opportunity for those out and about to grab snaps. Above image via Geoff Locke


The phenomenon is simply known as very low clouds… it doesn’t sound exciting or interesting, but it only happens about once a year and those in Brisbane City got a first hand glance of it. It appears as fog, and many people messaged into the page asking about the “fog that was lingering” but in reality it was an usual and specific combination that allowed for cloud bases to drop to as low as 100m in some places, and even lower in others as the evening progressed. The process is simple, but its very specific in the process of which it occurs.

The Reds game was near impossible to watch as the cloud engulfed Suncorp. Image via James Caughlin

The Reds game was near impossible to watch as the cloud engulfed Suncorp. Image via James Caughlin

 


Morning rain and storms hit Brisbane and much of South-East QLD during Friday morning which allowed for low level moisture to linger for much of the day as it became trapped under thick cloud and wasn’t allowed to evaporate. As the day progressed, the sun struggled to peak through and this allowed the second chain in the process to occur and that was cold temperatures. Brisbane experienced its coldest day in 3 years yesterday and it doesn’t matter if it wasn’t cold in reality… for the region, it was. The increased moisture caused by showers in the atmosphere allowed for the third chain in the process to occur and thats where the increased moisture mixing with cooler temperatures and surface humidity allows clouds to descend and act as fog.

Horse riding in the clouds at Ocean View via Natasha Koning

Horse riding in the clouds at Ocean View via Natasha Koning

Click below to view the image carousel featuring several images sent in by followers from across the region.

The cloud coverage was so thick that only the tops of Brisbane’s highest buildings were visible at Mount Coot-tha, the Airport experienced heavy delays and commuters required headlights in the middle of the day to drive on some of the most open roads in the region. Its not often this occurs, as stated above, but when it does – some of the photos are simply breath-taking.

Brisbane flight delays last night via Jessica Urquhart

Brisbane flight delays last night via Jessica Urquhart

Planes in a holding pattern and grounded at Maroochydore en route to Brisbane, with delays to the Gold Coast via Kristy Collins

Planes in a holding pattern and grounded at Maroochydore en route to Brisbane, with delays to the Gold Coast via Kristy Collins

 

 

3 07, 2017

Winter Rain coming for Adelaide & South Australia

After the driest June in 39 years for Adelaide, things are about to change in the City of Churches and along the SA Coast as consistent showers and some storms over the next few days break the dry spell. Above image – 3 day rainfall via ECMWF / WindyTV


A broad low pressure region (an area consistent of about 3 or 4 low pressure centres at the moment) is situated offshore from the South Australia Coast, over the Central and Eastern Great Australian Bight. Over the next 24hrs, this low pressure region should develop into a distinct rotating centre (a singular low) and move in an East to South-Easterly direction, while a high pushes into Western Australia during this time. The combination of onshore winds brought on by the Low behind the system and onshore winds brought on by the high ahed of the system is likely to result in scattered showers developing each day along the South Australia Coast with models highlighting Adelaide Metropolitan as the place to be for the better falls.


Across the next 2-3 days while this system is in place.. all models are indicating 30-50mm being likely across Adelaide Metro, while some heavyweight models showing the potential for as much as 75mm in isolated areas. Lighter falls are expected along the South-East Coast and along the West Coast / Eyre Peninsula regions where falls of 15-30mm are likely. Adelaide averages 78mm for July, so to get anything above 50mm would be a big chunk of the monthly average taken care of and with several more systems expected in the week following this event, that total is no doubt expected to rise. There is the chance of some isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday, however this is unlikely to pose a significant threat with any storms remaining fairly tame and either producing small hail or just heavier localised rainfall.

 

ECMWF / WindyTV pressure - blue indicates lower pressure, warmer colours (red, yellow) indicate higher pressure. Onshore flow highlighted into SA

ECMWF / WindyTV pressure – blue indicates lower pressure, warmer colours (red, yellow) indicate higher pressure. Onshore flow highlighted into SA

 

 

3 07, 2017

Forecast Discussion: Good snow incoming for Snowy Mountains

A cold front is in the process of sweeping across Inland NSW and VIC with a low pressure region noted over the Bight which is likely to help trigger snow over the Snowy Mountains for the next 48hrs. Above image via BOM – Himawari Satellite


The current synoptic setup assisted by satellite and radar imagery shows a cold front which is just passing through Central Victoria and Inland NSW at the moment. This cold front is linked to a low pressure region (a series of about 3 low pressure centres) situated over the Great Australian Bight. This cold front has helped generated reasonable showers across much of Western and Central VIC already today with falls of 10-15mm over the West and up to 20mm so far over Central / Northern Districts so far. Strong to damaging winds have also been noted with gusts of 98km/h over Mount Hotham, 82km/h over Mt Buller and Mt William. Gusts may increase, along with shower activity as the front moves over later this afternoon through Eastern VIC and the Snowy Mountains.

Weatherzone satellite / radar showing activity already over Central VIC

Weatherzone satellite / radar showing activity already over Central VIC

 


Behind this front, the low pressure region is expected to move towards the East to South-East later today and overnight tonight. This shift in positioning will allow for cold air to be dragged up behind the low and interact with increased moisture coming out of the South-West across VIC to generate idealistic conditions for snow to occur down to around 1500m across the Snowy Mountains. This should lower to 1200m and possibly 1100m or 1000m during Tuesday as the components required all peak (temperatures being at their lowest, moisture being at its highest). This will allow for snow showers (which have already started over the Snowy’s) to continue from Monday night until Wednesday morning and good falls of 25-40cm likely and the potential for 50cm+. 

Snowfall forecast via WindyTV / ECMWF for the Snowy Mountains

Snowfall forecast via WindyTV / ECMWF for the Snowy Mountains


This isn’t the only system this week with another heavy dumping expected before the weekend. So if it is possible, then be sure to make a late school holiday dash to soak up some of the winter wonderland which has been lacking over the Snowy Mountains this season so far.

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2 07, 2017

Good Snow Dumping just in time for School Holidays

The Snowy Mountains are expected to benefit from a winter blast over the next few days with the best snow of the season so far expected to arrive just in time for resorts to benefit from a holiday rush. Above image: Forecast snowfall via WindyTV


During Monday, a low pressure region is expected to become situated over the Bight, with a cold front / trough system extending up through Western VIC and Inland. During Monday afternoon and evening, this trough / cold front is expected to sweep through bring some strong winds to elevated regions along with isolated showers across both much of Inland NSW and scattered showers across much of VIC. Behind this system though, a pool of ‘cold enough’ air is expected to creep up from the Southern Bight and move over the South-East corner of Australia. This pool of ‘cold enough’ air is expected to linger through Tuesday to allow snowfall to continue before easing back on Wednesday as the lower level cooling warms up and conditions become heavily reliant on upper level activity.

So for the snowfall, up to 50cm, yes half a metre, is expected across parts of the NSW Snowy Mountains and 30-40cm is expected across the VIC Snowy Mountains. Good moisture should remain active over the Snowy Mountain region which will allow for nearly all precipitation to become snowfall during Monday afternoon until Wednesday morning. The small difference in totals is expected to come from the peak cooling remaining over NSW throughout the snow period. Despite the very good totals that are expected, snowfall is only expected to fall down to around 1200m and this is due to the cold burst of air only being -2ºc at 1500m ASL. This is perfect timing after such a poor start to the season, the ski resorts can hopefully salvage something from this occurring during school holidays.

Forecast températures at 1500m ASL during Tuesday morning via WindyTV / ECMWF

Forecast températures at 1500m ASL during Tuesday morning via WindyTV / ECMWF

 

 

As for the other weather associated with this system, scattered showers with falls of 5-15mm are expected across VIC and better falls (stated above) across the Snowy Mountains. Reasonable falls of 5-10mm are expected across Southern NSW / ACT also. The rainfall and cloud cover should keep maximum temperatures down on normal, but thankfully minimums should come back to at least normal if not slightly above average after the deep freeze experienced over Saturday and Sunday morning.

ECMWF / WindyTV - Forecast 3 day rainfall with blue being around 10mm and green / aqua being as much as 25mm

ECMWF / WindyTV – Forecast 3 day rainfall with blue being around 10mm and green / aqua being as much as 25mm

 

 

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2 07, 2017

Day 2: The cold get colder

Another morning of widespread freezing and even frigid conditions as swept much of NSW, VIC, TAS and Southern QLD with the elusive -10ºc temperature finally occurring. Above image via Jo Hall in a frozen Glen Innes


Over the past 24hrs, a high pressure system which was originally situated over Eastern VIC / Southern NSW shifting North-East and became elongated to stretch over the entirety of Eastern NSW and remain over Eastern VIC / stretch into South-Eastern QLD. This allowed temperatures to remain fairly similar to that of Saturday morning across large parts of NSW and VIC, while South-Eastern QLD saw an even colder morning. TAS remained influence by the ridge and while temperatures weren’t nearly as frigid in the Highlands as those seen on Saturday, there was still enough for the freeze effect to occur.

 

Cool frozen display on the roof of a car in Bathurst, NSW via Miranda Ross

Cool frozen display on the roof of a car in Bathurst, NSW via Miranda Ross

 

• Goulburn  was the coldest of the cold with a new record breaking -10.4ºc, beating yesterday’s record breaker of -9.7ºc and smashing the original record of -9.1ºc.
• Cooma Airport -9.2ºc
• Canberra saw -8.2ºc which has meant Canberra has seen back to back -8ºc days 
• Braidwood -7.5ºc (back to back -7ºc)
• Tuggeranong -7.0ºc
• Young -7.0ºc
• Butlers Gorge (TAS) -6.6ºc
• Bathurst -6.1ºc
• Bombala -6.0ºc
• Temora -5.8ºc
• Mudgee -5.6ºc
• Condoblin -5.5ºc
• Fingal (TAS) -5.5ºc
• West Wyalong -5.5ºc
• Cowra -5.4ºc
• Liawenee (TAS) -5.2ºc
• Glen Innes saw -5.0ºc
• Merriwa had -4.8ºc – again the coldest in the Hunter although much of the Hunter was noticeably colder this morning
• Orange -4.6ºc

 For the major cities, Melbourne scored 1.4ºc again with the outer suburbs below 0ºc, Hobart was 1.1ºc for the second morning running with the outer suburbs down to as low as -4ºc. Western Sydney scored -2ºc and areas West of Brisbane dropped to freezing. 

Click above to view the image carousel featuring a variety of photos sent in!

For much of Eastern NSW in particularly, the high pressure ridge should remain in place today and into tomorrow morning allowing for another cold morning, but overall temperatures aren’t expected to be as bitter as the previous 2 mornings.

Frozen cricket field in Katoomba via Amanda Playford

Frozen cricket field in Katoomba via Amanda Playford

 

 

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1 07, 2017

South-East Australia shivers through frigid morning!

Temperatures have absolutely plummeted across NSW, VIC and TAS this morning with some locations having their coldest morning for several decades! Above image via Nathan Rowbotham in Broken Hill – the pic says it all!


The elusive -10ºc wasn’t quite achieved this morning, but tell that to the several towns and even Canberra who had to contemplate whether an early frosty wake up call was in order or if sleeping in was the best option as the temperature dropped to at least -8ºc! Almost the entirety of NSW, VIC and TAS are waking up to frost (from a temperature perspective) and for some its the coldest morning in a very long time. This has all been brought on by a strong and large high pressure system moving over the region and combining with freezing air which brought snow to low levels over Tasmania just 24-36hrs ago. The cold air descending towards the surface is being allowed to dominate as crystal clear skies allow the heating to completely disintegrate.

So some of these temperatures…

 

• Canberra -8.7ºc! This is the coldest temperature since -8.8ºc was recorded in July 1982.
• To round out the Capitals – Melbourne dropped to 1.1ºc, Hobart slightly warmer at 1.2ºc, Sydney’s Western Suburbs woke to below 0ºc, Brisbane’s West was just 2ºc

• Goulburn -9.7ºc (July record – Previous was -9.1ºc in 1994)
• Perisher-9.7º
• Liawenee (TAS) -9.6º
• Thredbo Top Station -7.6º
• Cooma Airport -7.4ºc
• Bathurst -7.3ºc (Equal all time / outright July record for the Airport)
• Braidwood -7.0ºc
• Orange -7.0ºc (Coldest July morning in 11 years)
• Condoblin -6.8ºc (Coldest July morning in 20 years)
• Hay Airport -6.2ºc
• Deniliquin -5.6ºc (Equal coldest morning in 110 years!!)
• Parkes -5.6ºc (All-time Record)
• Temora -5.6ºc (Coldest July morning in 46 years)
• Cobar Airport -5.5ºc (Coldest morning in 13 years)
• Glen Innes -5.4ºc was the coldest on the Northern Tablelands
• Merriwa -5.0ºc was the coldest place in the Hunter
• Walgett -4.6ºc (Coldest July morning in 15 years)

Frozen hose in Queanbeyan, NSW (-8ºc air temp, -18ºc ground temp) via Queanbeyan Fire Bridge

Frozen hose in Queanbeyan, NSW (-8ºc air temp, -18ºc ground temp) via Queanbeyan Fire Bridge

 

Frozen horse water cracked with steel pipe in Meadow Flat, Central NSW Tablelands (-7.4ºc) via Deanne Davidson

Frozen horse water cracked with steel pipe in Meadow Flat, Central NSW Tablelands (-7.4ºc) via Deanne Davidson

Click on the images above to scroll through the image carousel.

While VIC and TAS weren’t nearly as cold as many locations in NSW, the VIC Snowy’s did drop to below -7ºc, some suburbs of Hobart (or in South-East TAS in general) saw -4ºc, apart from Liawenee, most places over the TAS Highlands were between -3 and -6ºc, Launceston Airport scored a bone chilling -5.0ºc which is a July Record, North-Western VIC dropped to almost -5ºc and the suburbs of Melbourne saw below 0ºc!

 

Frozen pants in Shepparton VIC (-3.8ºc) via Shaun McNamara

Frozen pants in Shepparton VIC (-3.8ºc) via Shaun McNamara

 

29 06, 2017

Low Level Snow incoming for TAS!

A cold front has moved through Tasmania this morning and has made way for a burst of freezing air to impact the region tonight and tomorrow morning leading to low level snowfall! Above image via Weatherzone


A cold front moved through Tasmania this morning bringing strong to damaging wind gusts and some reasonable rainfall as expected. Wind gusts of 93km/h were recorded on Maatsuyker Island off the South Coast of Tasmania while Mount Read record a 91km/h gust. Several other locations recorded winds of 80-90km/h during the morning and early afternoon. As for the rainfall falls of up to 20mm occurred to 9am over the Western districts of TAS and up to 15mm from 9am to 2pm over the Southern districts. Again, nothing out of the ordinary, but its the cold air which is now moving overhead that is about to change things up.

2:30pm radar and satellite of Tasmania showing the showers impacting the West via Weatherzone

2:30pm radar and satellite of Tasmania showing the showers impacting the West via Weatherzone

 

 

Satellite imagery at 3pm was showing a large area of speckled cloud coverage starting to impact Western Tasmania behind the cold front, and spreading into the Eastern Bight. This speckled cloud coverage is indicative of very cold air which usually results in snowfall. Global models are indicating that from now (3pm Thursday) until mid Friday morning, an upper trough with much colder than normal temperatures of -5 to -7ºc at 1500m ASL is expected to impact the entirety of Tasmania. This very cold air is expected to combine with a narrow period of increased moisture content to produce snowfall to low levels across Tasmania, likely down to 300m and possibly down to 200m. This should lift on Friday morning to around 500m and then gradually during the afternoon before snowfall stops. Despite low level snow occurring, only 10-15cm is expected in the TAS Highlands and this is due to the narrow timeframe that moisture will be active over the region. Only a dusting is expected below 500m.

Forecast 1500m ASL temperatures for Midnight Friday June 30th over Tasmania via ECMWF / WindyTV

Forecast 1500m ASL temperatures for Midnight Friday June 30th over Tasmania via ECMWF / WindyTV

 

 

29 06, 2017

Winter is about to smash South-East AUS hard this weekend!

After what has been a relatively slow start to Winter in terms of both snow and the requirement for multiple layers of clothing… things are about to change and change quickly across NSW and VIC this weekend! Above image 6am temperatures on Saturday via WindyTV


During Saturday, a high pressure system is expected to move East across VIC and Southern NSW, with a ridge extending out from it to cover the entirety of both States and Tasmania. This high is likely to strengthen during the early hours of Saturday morning whilst combining with upper level cooling to produce very clear conditions, but also very cold conditions as all heating will escape and colder air is expected to be dragged down towards the surface. Its during Saturday morning that Winter will noticeably have arrived as temperatures drop down to -6 to -8ºc across the NSW Southern and Central Tablelands & ACT, -4 or -5ºc across Northern VIC, Southern Inland NSW and the NSW Northern Tablelands and the remainder of both States are likely to be below 3ºc unless you’re on the direct Coastline in NSW. These kinds of temperatures are likely to result in severe and heavy frost across large parts of NSW and Northern VIC and widespread frost across the majority of both States including Inner Melbourne where it may be as cold as 1ºc. Its expected to be no better in TAS where Hobart could drop below 0ºc for the first time in 4 years, while the Highlands could see -7c!

On Sunday, the high is expected to linger over NSW with a ridge remaining in place across VIC, NSW, Southern QLD and potentially Tasmania still. Sunday morning is expected to be fractionally warmer although those on the NSW Central and Southern Tablelands / ACT may disagree as another morning of -6 to -8ºc is expected leading to more severe heavy frost, and to Canberra potentially seeing its coldest pair of weekend mornings in 20 years! The last time back to back -6ºc mornings occurred on the weekend was 1997! Widespread parts of NSW and Northern VIC should see below 0ºc leading to another frosty start. TAS is likely to see widespread frost again with Hobart dropping to about 1ºc.

Forecast temperatures for Sunday Morning via EC / WindyTV - Blue colouring is below 0ºc, aqua is below -5ºc

Forecast temperatures for Sunday Morning via EC / WindyTV – Blue colouring is below 0ºc, aqua is below -5ºc

 

 

Despite these freezing mornings, conditions across all 3 States should be near perfect on both Saturday and Sunday with blue skies. Temperature wise it won’t be anything unusual for Winter, and even the minimum temperatures aren’t unheard of, but it could come as a shock after such a warm June. After this high moves off, some low level snow could be on the cards again with a big dumping possible for the Snowy Mountains just in time for school holidays.

 

 

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28 06, 2017

Low Level Snow likely in TAS during Thursday & Friday

A new wave of snow potential is expected to sweep through Tasmania during Thursday night and Friday morning with snow likely down to 400m and possible down to 300 maybe even 200m. Above image via WindyTV showing 3-day snowfall potential.

During Thursday morning, a cold front is forecast to sweep across Tasmania producing a band of showers and strong to possibly damaging winds. While rainfall totals should be fairly normal for this time of year, and winds will be nothing out of the ordinary…. its the pool of freezing air which is expected to be dragged up from Antarctica behind the system and produce conditions favourable for low level snowfall.

During Thursday afternoon and evening, temperatures at 1500m are expected to rapidly drop and bottom out around midnight at -7ºc over Southern TAS and -5ºc or colder over the entirety of TAS. These very cold temperatures are expected to mix with a narrow period of moisture from about 4pm Thursday until about 4am Friday to produce conditions which are favourable for snowfall to occur at low levels. The majority of models are indicating the snow is likely to fall to at least 400m, with snow possible down to 200m in the South of the State (some going even lower than that although the safer bet is 200-300m). While this isn’t anything out of the ordinary as Tasmania does see low level snow each day, the system itself is much awaited after the warmest start to June in a long time for the majority of TAS.

 

Despite the potential for low level snow, snowfall totals at the higher altitudes aren’t expected to benefit with the window of moisture expected to be short enough that snowfall totals are limited to about 15-25cm over the Central and Northern Highlands, and only a dusting at those lower levels. Thinking positively though, after such a warm start… some of these Highland locations could be well over the 50cm mark in just a week of activity following 2 previous snow days in the last 8 days.

ec-tas-snow-june-29-30