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7 02, 2017

Welcome to hell on Earth in Australia

The strongest heatwave for 2016/17 is about to sweep South Australia, New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland bringing extremely hot conditions with increased bushfire and heat stress risks. Above image – Maximums via OCF/BSCH for Saturday, February 11th.

Over the next 4 to 5 days, a low pressure trough is forecast to move slowly though South Australia and VIC before drifting North through New South Wales and Queensland. This trough is forecast to combine with a ridiculously hot airmass overhead and dry in very dry and hot conditions ahead of it to produce widespread severe to extreme heatwave conditions.

BOM Heatwave Pilot for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

BOM Heatwave Pilot for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

 

5 capital cities are forecast to be in the firing line with the following temperatures over the next 4 to 5 days.
• Adelaide 41 / 41 / 39 / 37
• 
Melbourne 34 / 37 / 27 / 28
• Canberra 26 / 35 / 40 / 41 / 35
• Sydney 26 / 29 / 35 / 39 / 36
• Brisbane 31 / 31 / 32 / 35 / 37

While most people will be feeling the above temperatures given the population density in cities. Spare a though for those in Western NSW, Eastern SA, North-West VIC and Southern/South-West QLD. Maximums, which for an extensive period of time have been in the mid 40’s, are about to get even hotter. Here are some of the following temps.

• Mildura (VIC) 40 / 44 / 44 / 42
• Moomba (SA) 46 / 46 / 45 / 46
• Birdsville (QLD) 46 / 46 / 45 / 45
• Port Augusta (SA) 45 / 45 / 44 / 45
• St George (QLD) 39 / 39 / 40 / 43 / 45
• Ivanhoe (NSW) 42 / 43 / 45 / 47
• Wilcannia (NSW) 45 / 44 / 46 / 47
• Penrith (NSW) 27 / 34 / 43 / 43 / 40

Some locations are expected to at least challenge February records, some of these could be long standing. The addition of Summer records is also possible given many locations in NSW are closing in on records for the number of days above 35ºc and 40ºc. The heat is forecast to continue over Northern NSW and Southern QLD beyond these 5 days, however there will be a seperate blog for that.

Forecast Maximums via OCF/BSCH for Wednesday, February 8th

Forecast Maximums via OCF/BSCH for Wednesday, February 8th

Forecast Maximums via OCF/BSCH for Thursday, February 9th

Forecast Maximums via OCF/BSCH for Thursday, February 9th

There is a heightened bushfire risk, the temperatures alone over such a large area pose a significant risk, however these temperatures are occurring over extensively dry regions and should occur with very low humidity. Total fire bans are expected and should be respected. 

This is also another reminder that with upwards of 15 million people being impacted by this heat, avoid strenuous activity during the day.. the body will struggle to breath with increased sweat and lead to an increased risk of heatstroke. Drink plenty of water, dehydration is a major factor in heatstroke and heat related illness. Look after young children, the elderly, pregnant woman, those who are currently sick as well as pets and animals – all of these have an increased risk of heat stress. 

Forecast Maximums via OCF/BSCH for Friday, February 10th

Forecast Maximums via OCF/BSCH for Friday, February 10th

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6 02, 2017

Another week of HOT & DRY for the Southern half of QLD

Hot, dry.. hot, dry… hot, dry. Its becoming a familiar forecast for those across the Southern half of Queensland. The only exception to this, is when hot has become really hot. Well guess, what, theres another week of it and if anything its looking worse. Above image via BSCH/OCF – Maximums for Saturday, February 11th

Lets get the “hope” out of the way first. During Tuesday and Wednesday, there is the CHANCE, and thats the definitive word… CHANCE, of some cooler temperatures than what we’ve seen along with MAYBE the odd storm or shower across areas East of Charleville/Longreach and South of Mackay. This is being brought on by an upper level trough which is increasing instability. Realistically, the showers are expected to produce less than a few mm, the moisture increase will only ramp up humidity and the storms should be isolated and brief at best. By cooler temperatures, we still mean 1-2ºc above average… just cooler than what we’ve been having, but the humidity might sort that out and make it feel just as hot.

qld-feb-6-to-13-rain

 

Now to the bad news… areas South of a line stretching from Mount Isa to Townsville, which includes Brisbane, Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast, Toowoomba, Darling Downs, Ipswich, Rockhampton, Gladstone, Bundaberg, Hervey Bay, Maryborough, Gympie etc. Temperatures are expected to be well above average for another week with next to no rainfall likely. The only hope for rain is stated ^^^ above.

OCF Forecast Maximums for Tuesday (February 7th) via BSCH

OCF Forecast Maximums for Tuesday (February 7th) via BSCH

 

In fact, the South-East quarter of the State could be on the brink of another extreme heatwave, with early indicators showing maximums into the low 40’s across inland parts of SEQ, Wide Bay, Capricornia and much of the Darling Downs over the weekend. Temperatures of 5ºc+ for 3 days straight are required for heatwave status, Saturday, Sunday and Monday are expected to be as much as 6-10ºc above average for SEQ. 

OCF Forecast Maximums for Thursday (February 9th) via BSCH

OCF Forecast Maximums for Thursday (February 9th) via BSCH

 

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4 02, 2017

Endless heat challenging NSW records

A record breaking heat stretch for Northern Inland and North-West NSW is forecast to continue well into February as another wave of stifling heat is forecast to move through. Above image – Forecast maximums for Saturday, February 11th via OCF/BSCH

Much of the Northern half of NSW baked during January with excessive continuous heat and prolonged dry periods. This lead to Bourke recording 16 days or more (4 days during a hot spell were unrecorded) above 40ºc compared to their January average from 121 years of records of 8. Penrith, West of Sydney, saw 7 days above 40ºc including 3 above 43ºc… this is compared to their average of 2. Cessnock in the Hunter saw 7 days above 40ºc compared to their average of less than 1 while Moree has now notched up 36 consecutive days above 35ºc which is obliterating the State record.

 

 

So whats to come?? over the next 7 days, this heat is going to remain firmly in place with Northern and North-West NSW seeing consistent daytime maximums above 40ºc with many locations seeing maximums into the mid 40’s. This will combine with overnight minimums struggling to drop below 30ºc to continue what has been oppressive and relentless heat. Towards the end of next week, another very strong burst of heat looks set to move through with maximums expected to reach the high 40’s for some locations and POSSIBLY challenge some records. Long standing streaks are also expected to be extended (in the case of Moree) and challenged in the case of places like Bourke and Walgett.

OCF Forecast Maximums via BSCH for Monday, February 6th

OCF Forecast Maximums via BSCH for Monday, February 6th

OCF Forecast Maximums via BSCH for Friday, February 10th

OCF Forecast Maximums via BSCH for Friday, February 10th

By this time next week, Bourke will have seen 14 straight days above 40ºc (next 7 days above 42ºc). Moree will be up to 46 straight days above 35ºc which will be almost doubling the previous State record (next 7 days forecast for 39ºc+). Areas such as Ivanhoe and Pooncarie in the South-West are forecast for 48ºc maximums. Even places like Dubbo may have recorded their 11th 40ºc this Summer already, compared to the 3 month average of 2. All of this comes with next to no rain forecast for the Northern half of the State (apart from the Northern Tablelands who may see some isoalted storms).

 

NSW 7 day rainfall via Tropicaltidbits. Green areas indicate less than 15mm, light green less than 2mm.

NSW 7 day rainfall via Tropicaltidbits. Green areas indicate less than 15mm, light green less than 2mm.

 

 

3 02, 2017

Prolonged Heat to continue for QLD – no rain in sight.

The stifling conditions across the entire Southern half of QLD and Northern half of NSW are likely to continue this next week which could potentially challenge some very long standing temperature streaks/records.

A hot air mass is forecast to remain over the entirety of QLD for the next week, this hot airmass is likely to combine with dry winds across the entire Southern half of the State to continue producing well above average temperatures. Some of these maximums have the potential to be as much as 7-12ºc above the February average leading to the continuation of extreme heating + abnormally very dry conditions for this time of year.

 

Across South-East QLD, the Wide Bay and Capricornia – temperatures are likely to reach the mid to high 30’s every day. While these temperatures are unlikely to match those of inland districts, they will still be 3-6ºc above average for February and there will be the addition of humidity which will make it feel considerably hotter to the human body. 

Across Southern and Central Inland QLD + much of Western and especially in the South-West. Temperatures are likely to continue hitting the 40ºc which for all locations is above average already. In the Far South-West, areas like Thargomindah, Birdsville, Ballera, Windorah and Boulia to name a few are likely to see maximums on some days in the mid to high 40’s with Birdsville in particular likely to break their February record of 45.9ºc at some stage this week. Next to no rainfall is forecast for the entire region and this will mean nights don’t cool down at all adding to the discomfort of the ‘heatwave’.

OCF Forecast Maximums for Saturday (Feb 4th) via BSCH

OCF Forecast Maximums for Saturday (Feb 4th) via BSCH

OCF Forecast Maximums for Monday (February 6th) via BSCH

OCF Forecast Maximums for Monday (February 6th) via BSCH

This is another chance to remind people to look after the elderly, pregnant woman, children, those who are currently sick and pets/animals. These are all at a heightened risk of heat stress or heat related illness. Try and avoid outdoor activities during peak heating times and weak light clothes while drinking plenty of WATER.

Pivotal Weather forecast 7 day rainfall, red circle showing area of no rain.

Pivotal Weather forecast 7 day rainfall, red circle showing area of no rain.

 

 

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30 01, 2017

Relentless Heat to scorch NW NSW

North-West and Northern NSW are about to endure a ridiculous run of heat which hasn’t been seen across the region since at least 2013. Maximums over the past 2 days have been in the low 40’s (sitting at 5ºc+ above average and above heatwave thresholds) but its only expected to get hotter and for longer. Above image maximums for Monday (Feb 6th) via OCF/BSCH

 

 

A heat trough is forecast to sit across North-West and Central Inland regions over Monday before shifting to cover North-West and Northern Inland regions until Thursday. During Thursday the trough is expected to move into Southern Queensland and this will allow for temperatures to subside briefly (but still remain hot and above heatwave thresholds). During Friday and into the weekend, the trough is expected to get a hot Northerly push which will allow it to move South each day until on Sunday its covering the Southern districts of NSW. Throughout this whole time, Northern and especially North-West NSW are forecast to be under the pump from unrelenting heat.

OCF Forecast Maximums (Monday, January 30th)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Monday, January 30th)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Tuesday, January 31st)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Tuesday, January 31st)

Some 7 day town forecasts:

Bourke 45, 45, 44, 44, 45, 46, 45 (42ºc is heatwave threshold for Bourke)

Wanaaring 44, 45, 43, 43, 44, 46, 45 (41ºc is heatwave threshold)

Wilcannia 46, 41, 42, 35, 39, 44, 46, 45 (42ºc is heatwave threshold)

Tibooburra 44, 44, 41, 41, 44, 45, 45 (42ºc is heatwave threshold)

The movement of the trough on Thursday could be critical as to how intense this heatwave really is. Some of the more Southern towns in those Northern districts (such as Wilcannia) are expected to see some brief relief which will halt any heat streaks, where as other places like Bourke and Tibooburra don’t really see a break.

 

 

OCF Forecast Maximums (Wednesday, February 1st)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Wednesday, February 1st)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Thursday, February 2nd)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Thursday, February 2nd)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Friday, February 3rd)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Friday, February 3rd)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Saturday, February 4th)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Saturday, February 4th)

Towards the end of the current period (next weekend), there is the chance of some thunderstorms which could bring temporary relief with overnight temperatures dropping back into the mid 20’s post-storms, thats for towns who actually receive a storm, otherwise hot nights are expected too.

 

OCF Forecast Maximums (Sunday, February 5th)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Sunday, February 5th)

 

 

29 01, 2017

South-West QLD about to bake!

Over the next week, South-West QLD is forecast to endure its most relentless run of heat since 2014 as constant temperatures into the mid 40’s are forecast. Above image – Saturday maximums via OCF/BSCH

A heat trough is forecast to stall across North-East SA and North-West NSW producing high levels of heat around it from Monday until at least next Monday (February 6th) and possibly beyond. The entire area of South-West QLD is forecast to feel the full effects of this trough as temperatures climb into the mid 40’s every single day…. the last time the entire area felt something like this was January 2014 when numerous towns recorded 4-5 straight days of 45ºc+.

 

 

OCF Forecast Maximums (Monday, January 30th)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Monday, January 30th)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Tuesday, January 31st)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Tuesday, January 31st)

In retrospective, this is only being rated as a low intensity to possibly severe heatwave, due to conditions recently being very hot and due to the thresholds for heatwave criteria only just being met. However the relentless of the event is key here with 7 days of 44ºc+ over a large area and nights failing to drop below 30ºc.

OCF Forecast Maximums (Wednesday, February 1st)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Wednesday, February 1st)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Thursday, February 2nd)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Thursday, February 2nd)

Some rough town forecasts over the next 8 days include:

Birdsville 45, 45, 45, 43, 44, 46, 46, 45 (most nights above 31ºc)

Ballera 45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 46, 46, 45 (every night above 29ºc)

Bedourie 44, 43, 42, 42, 42, 46, 46, 43

Thargomindah 43, 44, 44, 45, 45, 44, 45, 47 (every night above 30ºc, some above 32ºc)

Cunnamulla 41, 42, 43, 44, 44, 43, 44, 45

As a comparison, the above mentioned towns will have recorded more days above 43ºc in this stretch (not including further heat beyond the forecast period) than January 2015 and 2016 combined.

 

 

OCF Forecast Maximums (Friday, February 3rd)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Friday, February 3rd)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Sunday, February 5th)

OCF Forecast Maximums (Sunday, February 5th)

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17 01, 2017

NSW furnace to be turned up again

NSW is about to experience yet another blast of furnace-like heat as temperatures climb into the mid 40’s again. Once again, places like Sydney, Canberra and Newcastle won’t miss out either.

First thing’s first.. this isn’t technically a heatwave. The criteria for a heatwave is 3 consecutive days of 5ºc or more above average. While the temperature criteria is matched, the length of this is really only a day maybe 2 for some locations. NOT 3… Now that is settled..

 

TUESDAY: A surface trough is forecast to lie through South Australia and extend into VIC but in a much weaker and more washed out phase. This will combine with another weak trough over Southern and Central Inland NSW. The combination of these will direct hot North-West winds into Inland parts of NSW which will combine with a hot air mass overhead to produce vile temperatures.

Maximums are expected to reach the mid 40’s across Western and South-Western NSW with places like Wilcannia, Ivanhoe, Menindee, Pooncarie all forecast to hit at least 45ºc if not higher. This heat is forecast to spread through all of Inland NSW and Northern VIC with the capitals not missing out either due to a Coastal trough hugging the VIC and NSW Coast’s. Melbourne is heading for 38, Sydney 35 (western suburbs up to 41) and Canberra 38.

Forecast Maximums for NSW/VIC on Tusday January 17th via BSCH/OCF

Forecast Maximums for NSW/VIC on Tusday January 17th via BSCH/OCF

 

WEDNESDAY: The Coastal trough is forecast to remain firmly in place along the NSW Coast, and after a potential record breaking night for some locations as temperatures fail to drop even into the mid 20’s… it should be a very fast start as maximums climb towards the mid 30’s in Sydney and high 30’s / low 40’s in the West before midday. The same is likely over Newcastle/Hunter. Thats before a strong cool change is expected to arrive in the late afternoon, dropping the temp considerably. This cool change should already be active over Southern NSW / VIC, with maximums reaching the low 40’s across Northern Inland NSW.

Forecast Maximums for NSW/VIC on Wednesday January 18th via BSCH/OCF

Forecast Maximums for NSW/VIC on Wednesday January 18th via BSCH/OCF

 

This is again, another reminder to be smart under these conditions. Heat stress is the leading cause of weather related illness in Australia with potentially hundreds of call outs on days like these. Slip slop slap, keep hydrated, check on those around you including the elderly, young, pregnant, sick and pets/animals and try to avoid strenuous activity during peak heating.

 

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16 01, 2017

Another Extreme Heatwave on the cards for SEQ & CQLD

Yet another extreme heatwave is forecast to sweep South-Eastern QLD and Central QLD this week, making this the third since New Year for 2017. This one is expected last at least 4 days with excessive prolonged heat, and at times humidity, baking the region.

 

BOM Heatwave Pilot for Jan 19-21

BOM Heatwave Pilot for Jan 19-21

 

 

During Wednesday, a surface trough is forecast to become established along or just East of the South-East QLD and Central Coast Ranges. This surface trough is forecast to draw in hot West to North-West winds towards the backside of it, and very warm and humid North-East winds on the Coastal side of it. These will combine with a hot air mass overhead to produce widespread temperatures of 5-10ºc above average.

During Thursday, a cool change is forecast to move up the South-East QLD and Wide Bay Coastline’s bringing some brief relief in the afternoon, but not before temperatures rapidly rise into the mid 30’s again. This cool change however is not expected to influence the Capricornia or inland regions a whole lot as temperatures remain baking. 

 

Forecast Maximums for Wednesday January 18th via BSCH/OCF

Forecast Maximums for Wednesday January 18th via BSCH/OCF

Forecast Maximums for Thursday January 19th via BSCH/OCF

Forecast Maximums for Thursday January 19th via BSCH/OCF

Friday, and the surface trough is forecast to come back into play but this time a little further West. This will allow coastal regions to be slightly cooler (still sitting in the mid 30’s by the way) but unfortunately with those North to North-East winds cranking in… it’ll be very humid and feel a whole lot hotter than what it really is.

Saturday, the trough moves towards the Coast once again and allows those very hot winds to crank in over the entire South-East quarter of the State and potentially will allow Saturday to be the hottest day of the bunch with widespread maximums in excess of 38ºc. A cool change is once again likely to move up the Coast but may only reach the Sunshine Coast before midnight and Gympie by sunrise the next day.

Forecast Maximums for Friday January 20th via BSCH/OCF

Forecast Maximums for Friday January 20th via BSCH/OCF

Forecast Maximums for Saturday January 21st via BSCH/OCF

Forecast Maximums for Saturday January 21st via BSCH/OCF

Each day, thunderstorms are a chance, these have a chance of locally breaking the heat so that overnight minimums are somewhat bearable, but overnight humidity is expected to be ripe and still create sticky, uncomfortable conditions. This is once again a reminder to look after pets, the elderly, children, pregnant woman and those who are sick as they will suffer the easiest from heat stress.

 

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13 01, 2017

Storms and Rain drenching SEQ & NENSW this weekend

The hot and very muggy conditions across South-East QLD, Central QLD and North-East NSW are expected to be broken on Saturday afternoon as thunderstorms and rain areas impact those regions. There is the potential for some very good falls as this rain continues into Sunday.

 

 

SATURDAY: A surface trough is expected to be located through South-East QLD extending up the Central Coast Ranges. Another surface trough is expected to be located over Southern Inland QLD stretching towards Western QLD. The combination of these 2 is expected to produce a hot and very humid environment which is favourable for thunderstorm development. Across the Darling Downs, Central Highlands, Coalfields and parts of the Warrego and Maranoa + Northern Rivers and Tablelands of NSW, rain areas are likely to develop during the afternoon and continue overnight producing widespread good falls. Scattered to widespread falls of 15-20mm+ are likely, however isolated falls around the Border Ranges and Central Highlands may exceed 50mm.

 

OCF Forecast Rainfall for CQLD, SEQLD, NENSW on Saturday (January 14th)

OCF Forecast Rainfall for CQLD, SEQLD, NENSW on Saturday (January 14th)

 

 

SUNDAY: A surface low is expected to develop off the North-East NSW Coast while the entire system shifts further East. This low will likely amplify any thunderstorms or rain areas, producing locally heavier falls – mainly around Southern SEQ and the Border Ranges. Falls of 50mm+ are possible on Sunday through these areas which are notorious for picking up very good rainfall. Scattered to widespread falls alf 25mm+ are likely across the Central Highlands, Capricornia, Wide Bay and South-East Coast with isolated falls of 50mm+ possible.

 

OCF Forecast Rainfall for CQLD, SEQLD, NENSW on Sunday (January 15th)

OCF Forecast Rainfall for CQLD, SEQLD, NENSW on Sunday (January 15th)

 

 

Overall this should allow much of the South-East quarter of QLD to see widespread good falls of 25mm+ which has been long overdue. The Central Highlands look to pick up a double hit allowing for scattered falls of 50mm+ to become more likely, while the Border Ranges should see 50mm+ and may see 100mm+. Keep in mind, thunderstorms may produce locally heavier falls. Localised flash flooding cant be ruled out.

 

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13 01, 2017

A wet weekend coming for Queensland!

Much of Queensland is about to endure a wet weekend as a tropical flow covers all but the South-West of the State producing rain areas and thunderstorms. Above image via Tropicaltidbits

On Saturday, a trough is forecast to move into Southern and South-West Queensland. This trough is expected to keep the Far South and South-West dry, but it’s also likely to combine with another trough located West of the Ranges through South-East, Central and Northern Inland QLD. The combination is likely to channel tropical moisture from both the Coral Sea and Gulf of Carpentaria through North-West, Northern Inland, Central Inland and the Darling Downs producing widespread showers, rain areas and thunderstorms. Falls of 25-50mm are likely, especially over the Darling Downs and Central districts where thunderstorms are likely to boost totals. Isolated falls of 50mm+ are forecast to occur also and may cause localised flash flooding. 

 

OCF Forecast Rainfall for QLD on Saturday (January 14th)

OCF Forecast Rainfall for QLD on Saturday (January 14th)

 

 

On Sunday, a surface trough is forecast to shift North-East and be located between the Darling Downs and Northern/Central Inland QLD. The other surface trough is expected to do the same and be located over the Northern and Central Ranges. A low pressure system is expected to develop over Inland QLD which will help amplify rainfall, while a surface low is also expected to develop offshore from NENSW which will help increase rainfall over South-East QLD. 

Showers and rain periods with isolated to scattered storms are likely all day across South-East QLD, Wide Bay and the Capricornia producing widespread falls of 15-40mm. Isolated falls of 50mm+. Falls of up to 100mm+ can’t be ruled out around the Border Ranges (Upper Springbrook area) across the 2 days. Widespread falls of 20-50mm are likely over Central and Northern Inland districts also with 2 day totals now exceeding 50mm becoming likely and some falls of up to 100mm expected across the 2 days. Again, thunderstorms will be lingering around and helping to boost localised rainfall totals.

 

OCF Forecast Rainfall for QLD on Sunday (January 15th)

OCF Forecast Rainfall for QLD on Sunday (January 15th)

 

 

This rainfall is certainly needed as many inland regions have failed to see any notable rainfall for a number of weeks at least. These kinds of falls could exceed monthly or even Summer averages in just 2 days!

 
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