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31 03, 2019

Freezing Temperatures Hit NSW

2019-03-31T07:57:39+10:00

Parts of NSW have recorded their lowest March temperatures on record, with many locations along and surrounding the Ranges showing the potential for their first frost’s for 2019 overnight as temperatures plummeted across the State. Above image is a stock image.  

 


Across NSW, the temperature across most locations dropped considerably compared to previous nights / mornings, with areas along the Ranges potentially recording their first frost of 2019! Generally, most locations across the State will have recorded their coldest March morning since 2015. It was the Northern Rivers as a district and Eastern or Coastal parts of NSW that went a little harder with the anomalies and records.

 

Temperatures:

• Thredbo -4.2ºc – Coldest March temperature since 1984!
• Mount Ginini -2.9ºc
• Perisher -2.6ºc
• Nullo Mountain 2.5ºc
• Mount Boyce 3.0ºc
• Armidale 3.1ºc
• Bathurst 3.1ºc
• Canberra 3.1ºc
• Glen Innes 3.6ºc
• Port Macquarie 7.9ºc – Tied March record on current site
• Casino 11.2ºc – Coldest March Morning in 11 years
• Grafton 11.2ºc – Coldest March morning in 11 years
• Newcastle 12.4ºc – Coldest March morning in 18 years
• Sydney City 12.5ºc – Coldest March morning in 14 years
• Byron Bay 15.9ºc – Coldest March morning in 11 years

 

 

Note: Large parts of Western Sydney fell to between 7 and 11ºc, with the majority of locations recording their coldest March morning in 11 years (since 2008). Parts of the Hunter fell to as low as 5ºc, with most of that district recording its lowest March temperature since about 2015. Large parts of Northern and Central Inland NSW dropped well into single digits as well, with temperatures at their coldest since about 2015 for March too.

 

Real-time temperatures as of 7:10am across NSW and VIC showing the large area of cooler minimums. Image via BSCH, data provided by BOM.

 

Freezing Temperatures Hit NSW2019-03-31T07:57:39+10:00
31 03, 2019

Temperatures Plummet across Southern QLD

2019-03-31T07:50:08+10:00

South East QLD and large parts of NSW have endured their coldest March morning for about the last decade thanks to widespread dry and cool South to South West blowing across both areas. 

 

Across South East QLD, it was noticeably colder this morning compared to the rest of Summer as the South Westerly surged in after midnight, dropping the temperature by several degrees in the space of a short period of time. The difference for many locations between about midnight and sunrise was 7-9ºc with many locations sitting in the high teens / low 20’s around midnight and waking up to the low teens or even sub-teen temperatures. Along the Ranges, areas such as Toowoomba, Warwick and Stanthorpe dropped into single digits for the first time in 2019. 


• Stanthorpe 6.5ºc – Coldest March morning in 7 years
• Toowoomba 9.3ºc – Equal coldest March morning since 1993 (26 years)
• Warwick 9.4ºc – Coldest March morning in 7 years
• Canungra 9.6ºc
• Kingaroy 9.7ºc – Coldest March morning in 7 years
• Dalby 10.2ºc
• Wellcamp 10.3ºc
• Amberley 10.4ºc – Coldest March morning in 11 years
• Oakey 10.7ºc
• Gympie 12.1ºc – Coldest March morning in 11 years
• Brisbane Airport 13.0ºc – Coldest March morning in 11 years
• Gatton 13.5ºc – Coldest March morning in 11 years
• Redcliffe 14.4ºc – Coldest March morning in 11 years
• Brisbane City 15.3ºc – Coldest March morning in 11 years

Note: For many areas, especially over South Eastern QLD, minimums this morning (Sunday morning) were around 10-14ºc colder than Saturday morning, purely thanks to the incredibly different winds and air masses that moved over the region in such a short period of time. 

Real-time temperatures as of 7:10am across Southern QLD showing the large area of cooler minimums. Image via BSCH, data provided by BOM.

Temperatures Plummet across Southern QLD2019-03-31T07:50:08+10:00
30 03, 2019

Much Cooler Night Coming For Southern & South East QLD

2019-03-30T14:20:39+10:00

Southern and South East QLD areas may need to turn the air con off tonight, possibly even pull the doona out as temperatures plummet behind a rain and storm bearing trough. Above image – OCF Minimums for Saturday night / Sunday morning via BSCH

 

Showers, rain areas and storms are dominating Eastern QLD through Sunday thanks to a trough drawing in high levels of moisture and instability. Behind this trough though, much drier and colder South Westerly winds are blowing in – teasing with the first hints of Winter being just around the corner. These winds are expected to cut the humidity and with the combination of cold air aloft and clear skies, temperatures should plummet across the majority of the Southern half of QLD. 

Trough line marked offshore and along the Coast with winds coming in behind it from the South to South West – these are drier winds.

 

 

Overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning, temperatures to drop to as low as 5 or 6ºc over the Granite Belt, single digits over the Darling Downs and maybe even below the teens across Central QLD. These temperatures, whilst not being totally uncommon for this early in the “cooler” season, will still be around 5 to 8ºc below average for this time of year. Closer to the Coast between Hervey Bay and the Gold Coast, minimums should bottom out in the mid teens which is around 4ºc below average for this time of year. 

During Sunday, whilst maximums should climb back up into the high 20’s or low 30’s for most areas – the big difference will be the lack of humidity. Humidity levels within 20-30km of the Coast way remain elevated – but these areas should also see cooler temperatures than those further Inland. Anywhere more than about 25-30km (as the crow flies) from the Coast should see humidity levels drop into the 30’s and 40% range (which is very low for 27-28ºc). As the week progresses, maximums will remain similar but the humidity will start to creep back in gradually. Back across Southern Inland QLD, maximums will be heavily influenced by the South to South West cooler flow, with temperatures potentially sitting at around 6-8ºc below average and in the low to mid 20’s all day.

OCF Forecast Maximums for Sunday via BSCH

 

Much Cooler Night Coming For Southern & South East QLD2019-03-30T14:20:39+10:00
29 03, 2019

Winter Blast Coming For VIC & NSW

2019-03-29T14:46:14+10:00

Snow, rain, hail and significantly colder weather is set to spread across VIC and mostly Southern NSW across this weekend as a cold front and upper level cold pool sweep the region. Above image – temperatures at 17,000ft showing the cold pool over VIC and Southern NSW (they are NOT surface temperatures).

 

 

A cold front is set to move across VIC and Southern NSW during Friday. This cold front is likely to produce rain and storms across VIC and Inland NSW on Friday and Eastern NSW on Saturday – BLOG HERE. Behind this front though, an intense cold pool is expected to trail in and move over VIC and Southern NSW. This cold pool is likely to combine with increased moisture from the South West to produce scattered showers and some light rain areas with pockets of small hail being likely – especially directly under the cold pool. Overall, rainfall totals should be on the lighter side courtesy of the faster moving nature of the cells along with the sporadic nature of them.

 

Maximum temperatures across VIC and Southern NSW during Saturday via OCF / BSCH

 


The biggest things to note will be the very cold temperatures compared to the rest of the Season. Maximums across VIC in particular are expected to be well below normal for even late March standards. Melbourne is going for just 15ºc which will be the coldest March day in 41 years. Mildura is heading for just 18ºc – a 12ºc drop on Friday. Places like Bendigo and Ballarat may be up to 15ºc colder than Friday with maximums failing to reach the mid teens. Across the Alpine resorts, maximums may struggle to get above 0ºc during Saturday and barely any warmer on Sunday. Speaking of the Snowy Mountains, snow is expected to start falling during early Saturday and increase as the day progresses, peaking overnight into Sunday morning. Conditions should then slowly clear during Sunday. Falls of up to 10cm are expected over the Snowy Mountains, but if any locally heavier cells move through during the peak snow window, then we could see 15-20cm quite easily given the strength of the cold pool. The cold pool will likely move over the Central Tablelands during Sunday morning where temperatures will be cold enough for snow, but moisture levels will be questionable – so at this stage, we don’t expect snow over the the Central Tablelands.

 

Forecast snow across the Snowy Mountains and VIC Alpine via Windy

 

Winter Blast Coming For VIC & NSW2019-03-29T14:46:14+10:00
27 03, 2019

More Rain To Come For Inland QLD!

2019-03-27T18:54:44+10:00

While many areas have benefited from Ex-TC Trevor and the trough associated with the system, there is an area over the Warrego and Maranoa region (South of Charleville to Toowoomba) that has greatly missed out. Above image showing the 7pm rain simulation for Southern QLD via Windy.

 

Detailed forecasts are already available via our website

 

Ex-TC Trevor has pretty much followed the script with models. Large areas of Western, Central West, South West and South East QLD have seen beneficial rain. That was what was always forecast. The Darling Downs has seen patchy good rain which was forecast. The Central Highlands have some potential coming up. Its been Southern Inland QLD (Warrego & Maranoa South of Roma to Charleville) and the Southern Darling Downs / Granite Belt which were always on the lighter side for rainfall from this system.

 

Well there is hope on Friday. A new surface trough is forecast to develop and feed off lingering moisture from the remnants of Trevor. This is likely to combine with some upper support further South to generate weak instability over Southern QLD, moderate to strong instability over Central and Northern Inland areas into the Peninsula. This trough is LIKELY to generate a band of showers, rain areas and storms during the day which will slowly progress East.

Instability and surface wind chart showing a trough over Inland areas with instability developing over the Central corridor of QLD. Image via BSCH

 

While Central and Southern areas (Longreach, Blackall, Winton, Charleville) are likely to benefit from some follow up rain after a 1 day reprieve. The focus will be on Southern areas which could see 15-30mm likely (in the yellow shaded areas) and locally higher falls of up to 50mm under storms. Better falls are expected up until Central QLD where 25-50mm is likely and isolated higher falls under storms. But for an area that missed out, 15-30mm could be just enough to make this a half reasonable system in the end. The Quilpie, Bollon, Thargomindah pocket may miss out on a bit with activity developing there, but St George, Miles, Goondiwindi, Surat and surrounds should benefit. The Granite Belt could miss out a little bit, but across Friday and Saturday some half decent falls are possible there – especially with storms (it will be a 2 day combo, not a 1 day wonder). 

OCF Forecast Rainfall (which is typically conservative) for QLD on Friday showing a good band of rain through Southern Inland, Central and Northern QLD. Image via BSCH

 

More Rain To Come For Inland QLD!2019-03-27T18:54:44+10:00
25 03, 2019

SEQLD FINALLLLLLLYYYY Seeing Some Cooler Weather

2019-03-25T14:29:54+10:00

Its been a very long Summer – even for SEQLD standards, but some actual cooling is just around the corner now thanks to Ex-TC Trevor! Above image via OCF / BSCH – Maximums for Wednesday.

 

This Summer we’ve seen record breaking low rainfall across SEQLD in January. Gatton broke its record for consecutive 35ºc days (which was only broken for like 2 days before temperatures went back up). Ipswich and Brisbane both slaughtered their old records for consecutive 30ºc days – which lasted about 1 day for both. Many other areas have seen ridiculously hot weather which includes Beaudesert having a state-high anomaly of +4.1ºc above average for February which has also trickled into March with many areas on track for their hottest March in up to 70 years!

OCF Forecast Maximums for Thursday via BSCH

 

On Wednesday though, a trough associated with Trevor is expected to extend across Southern Inland and reach South East QLD. This trough will be largely responsible for drawing in a lot of moisture, leading to widespread rain areas which are likely to last into Thursday. How much rain is falling?? We will get to that. The combination of widespread prolonged rain and thick cloud coverage will allow temperatures to remain in the low to mid 20’s for most of South East QLD. It could be even colder on the Ranges where Stanthorpe and Toowoomba are going for just 20ºc, maybe it could even stay in the teens!

Unfortunately the cooling is only short lived, with heat returning on Friday as conditions clear. But its likely to be a pleasant 48-72 hours for many.

OCF Forecast Maximums for Friday via BSCH showing maximums returning into the high 20s / low 30s across the region

 

SEQLD FINALLLLLLLYYYY Seeing Some Cooler Weather2019-03-25T14:29:54+10:00
25 03, 2019

WELL Below Average Temperatures Forecast For Large Parts of QLD!

2019-03-25T14:18:42+10:00

For the first time in a long time, large parts of QLD are expected to be below average for temperatures! Its been an exceptionally prolonged Summer (more than usual) across the State with only very momentary cooling periods (if you can even call them that) but Ex-TC Trevor is going to benefit us in more ways than one. Above image – Temperature anomalies (below is below average) across QLD on Wednesday.

 

During Tuesday and Wednesday in particular, a very large portion of Western, South West, Central West, Southern Inland and eventually spreading into South East areas on Wednesday and Thursday, is expected to be below average for March temperatures – with some areas being up to 15ºc below average in Western QLD. Thins is all being brought on by Ex-TC Trevor and a trough associated with Trevor which is forecast to extend across Southern and South East QLD eventually. 

OCF Forecast Maximums for Tuesday across QLD (note the large area of below 30ºc through Southern and Western areas). Image via BSCH

 

 

The combination of Trevor and the trough will bring widespread significant rainfall to Inland areas of QLD with very good rainfall over Southern and South East QLD – we will get to that in other blogs. Aside from the rainfall though, extensive cloud coverage will prevent any heating from occurring. This is likely to produce widespread maximums across Western, South West and Southern QLD in the low to mid 20’s across both Tuesday and Wednesday which should gradually spread further East on Wednesday to cover Southern Inland, South East and Central QLD as well. 

Birdsville averages 36ºc for March. On Tuesday, the town is going for just 24ºc! Bedourie averages 36ºc as well, and is expecting a top of just 25ºc on Tuesday as well, followed by 26ºc on Wednesday. Charleville has spent 121 of the past 122 days above 30ºc (January 31st being the lone day below) – Tuesday it’ll be just 24 and even colder on Wednesday. 

 

After such a relentless and hot Summer across the majority of the State (the only real cold snap was during the February floods in Northern QLD), its good to have just a few days of relief – unfortunately it will only be a few days (3 max for most places). Even then, its good to see even a glimmer of hope that more prolonged cooling could be just around the corner.

OCF Forecast Maximums for Wednesday across QLD (note the large area of below 30ºc through Southern and Western areas, spreading into South East and Central West too). Image via BSCH

 

WELL Below Average Temperatures Forecast For Large Parts of QLD!2019-03-25T14:18:42+10:00
24 03, 2019

Elevated Risk of Dangerous Storms over Inland parts of QLD

2019-03-24T13:25:23+10:00

Models are continuing to indicate a very severe / dangerous weather event for the Eastern NT, Western and South West QLD, possibly extending into Central QLD courtesy of Ex-TC Trevor and its moments. Above image via Windy showing rain / storm overlay for Tuesday with a threat area circled for Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

 

Its not often we see this – Especially for Western QLD and the Eastern NT, but there is the potential for a very significant weather event over the next few days which ill include an extreme threat of major flooding along with an elevated risk of dangerous thunderstorms containing destructive winds and tornadoes. This is all being brought about by Ex-TC Trevor which is predicted by global models to move through the Eastern NT and into Western / South West QLD before shifting towards Central Inland QLD over the period of Monday into into Wednesday night. 

 

 

The main focus will be over the heavy rain which we have blogged already HERE. This heavy rain has the potential to produce widespread major flooding across a large portion of Eastern NT, Western, South West and potentially Southern Inland QLD with widespread falls of 50-150mm and scattered falls of up to 300mm! There is an increased risk that river catchments impacted by the February flooding may be impacted again, which will only speed up the flood process. 

While that will be the obvious concern. There will be another concern for dangerous thunderstorms and an elevated risk of tornadoes. Its understandable for people to not quite grasp this, but tropical cyclones are quite prone to producing waterspouts (over water) and tornadoes (over land). This all comes about from the system’s drawing in very high moisture levels and combing that with increased wind shear surrounding the system. This then leads to any thunderstorms in the near vicinity of the system or over the Eastern periphery usually, starting to rotate. The strong wind shear allows the rotation to tighten and waterspouts / tornadoes develop. 

Tuesday: Instability is forecast to increase across Western QLD, East and South East of Ex-TC Trevor. This will combine with a trough extending East from Trevor to produce increase wind shear over the Eastern, Southern and South West peripheries of the system. It will be this area (circled in pink) that has the highest risk of “any” thunderstorms producing destructive winds or tornadoes.

 

Tuesday winds / instability combo with elevated risk area for dangerous storms circled in the pink. Base image via BSCH

 

 

Wednesday: The threat will shift East with the system. Ex-TC Trevor is forecast to move over Western QLD which will mean instability will extend across Northern and Central Inland QLD. The trough will remain East of the system and continue to provide a localised area of enhanced destructive wind / tornado potential.

There is a very high risk that observation stations across Inland QLD won’t record 125km/h+ winds, and there is an even higher chance that a tornado won’t be spotted due to the sparsely populated and largely inaccessible area that the heightened risk lies over. That doesn’t take away from the fact that the potential is still there and there is every risk that a poor farmer or property owner could be under it. The easiest way to detect these dangerous storms will be with water vapour imagery and lightning overlay.

 

Wednesday winds / instability combo with elevated risk area for dangerous storms circled in the pink. Base image via BSCH

 

Elevated Risk of Dangerous Storms over Inland parts of QLD2019-03-24T13:25:23+10:00
24 03, 2019

Snow, Rain & Storms forecast for VIC & TAS

2019-03-24T07:32:09+10:00

The first signs of Winter are about to sweep through South Eastern AUS over the next 24 hours as a cold front brings rain, storms and snow to VIC and TAS! Above image 48 hour rainfall for TAS via weather.us

 

Its around this time of year that we see the first signs of Winter approaching South East AUS. While Summer snow isn’t exactly uncommon across TAS, there is a different approach to the season’s change when its associated with the first main cold front. That cold front is forecast to sweep across Tasmania, Victoria and Southern NSW over the next 24 hours bringing with it rain, storms and snow.

 

During Sunday, the focus of weather will be over VIC and Southern NSW where very warm to hot conditions ahead of the cold front fuel the heat required for some thunderstorms to develop across the region. These storms may be late developers due to the timing of the front and may also be heavily focused over South West / Southern Inland NSW and Western VIC. Due to their speed, not a lot of rain may come out of them – but it could be another dust kicker for rural areas from the winds. 

 

Overnight Sunday into Monday, the cold airmass trailing in behind the front is expected to start to impact Tasmania and Western VIC, reaching Eastern areas of both States comes Monday morning. This will allow showers and rain areas to develop across Western TAS where a much needed 25-50mm is expected along with locally higher falls being possible. Unfortunately for VIC, a lot of the rain will reside over the Snowy Mountains / VIC Alps where 30-70mm is expected. The cold air mass will also combine with the increased moisture to proceed the right ingredients for snow flurries across the Tasmanian Highlands where 10-15cm is forecast to fall. Snow should fall down to around 700-800m across TAS. Across VIC, the snow potential is almost non-existent but it wouldn’t be a total shock to see some unsettled or very light flurries over Mt Hotham or Mt Buller. The cold air mass will also drop temperatures by about 10-14ºc over VIC where most areas will barely get out of the teens on Monday compared to almost 30-33ºc on Sunday.


Snow, Rain & Storms forecast for VIC & TAS2019-03-24T07:32:09+10:00
23 03, 2019

Trevor To Bring Widespread Heavy Rain for South West QLD & South East NT!

2019-03-23T10:49:36+10:00

While there is an obvious and much required focus around the catastrophic potential of Trevor’s landfall over the Southern / South West Gulf of Carpentaria. The futuristic potential of the system is very promising with widespread significant rainfall forecast for heavily drought stricken parts of South East NT and South West / Southern QLD. Above image via rainfall accumulation for the next 5 days.

 

Trevor is forecast to move South West into the Central NT near Elliott and then South towards Tennant Creek. During this time the system is likely to weaken below cyclone thresholds, but still retain some very strong to possibly damaging winds. From Tennant Creek, the system is expected to track South East towards South East NT and then possibly entering South West QLD – this overall tracking doesn’t really alter too much in the forests though due to an associated trough with the system extending across South West and Southern Inland QLD. What all of this will do is draw in excessive amounts of moisture from the North and North East (tropical and monsoon moisture) which will converge around Ex-TC Trevor and lead to the development of widespread rain areas and storms.

Wind accumulation via Windy showing the South and South East track of Trevor over the next 5 day.

 

 

Across South East NT and South West QLD – widespread falls of 50-100mm are highly likely. This will include the towns of Birdsville, Windorah, Adavale, Quilpie, Jundah, Thargomindah, Charleville, Durham Downs, Ballera, Boulia, Bedourie, Jervois, Canteen Creek, Ali Curung and surrounding areas. Further scattered to widespread falls in a band surrounding the actual track of the system and associated trough will range from 100-200mm with isolated falls of 300mm+ being possible. 

BOM 8 day rainfall showing widespread 50-200mm across South West & Southern QLD + South East NT.

 

 

This kind of rainfall will have the potential to produce widespread flooding across both regions with the potential of some localised 24 hour or monthly record’s being challenged. This rainfall will potentially isolated and inundate communities across both South West QLD and South East NT for a number of days if not more than a week given the widespread nature of rain and extensive amount of time it typically takes to recede. This rainfall will also eventually flow into Lake Eyre. This definitely has the potential to be a very significant rain event across both areas that we haven’t seen since at least 2011, if not longer. 

There is further potential for heavy rain beyond the current 5 day outlook across Southern and South East QLD, however this potential is still unsettled for now – further updates will apply for this in the coming days.

OCF Forecast Rainfall for Tuesday ALONE. Some of these totals could be doubled for the day given the nature of the setup.

 

Trevor To Bring Widespread Heavy Rain for South West QLD & South East NT!2019-03-23T10:49:36+10:00