After finally recording a somewhat cold overnight minimum last night, South East Australia is set for potentially a colder night leading to a better frost potential. Above image via BSCH / OCF – forecast minimums for Tuesday morning.
Last night / this morning, South East AUS recorded its first taste of the Winter season. Canberra dropped to a chilly 2.9ºc for the second morning running while Melbourne saw 8.8ºc. Areas just outside of Canberra dropped to below 0ºc with the Snowy Mountains and Alpine region of VIC dropping quickly to around -2 to -4ºc. Even though the temperatures were adequate for frost… the overall frost coverage was pretty pore due to a lack of moisture in the soil (allowing dew to occur and freeze) along with some gusty winds still occurring.
Tonight, the overall potential seems to be a little better. Canberra according to BOM is forecast to drop to 0ºc, the Snowy Mountains, Western VIC (around Ballarat to Horsham) down to below 5ºc, North East VIC below 5ºc, the NSW Southern and Central Tablelands down to between 0 and 4ºc with the Snowy Mountains below 0ºc. For some areas (like Canberra) this could be the coldest night since September (7+ months ago). Again, its nothing dramatic like we see in the middle of Winter, but there is enough there for some light frost to occur. Winds should be lighter tonight as the high pressure region is directly overhead now and slow moving towards the East. The only hindering factors could be some light cloud moving up from the Tasman Sea which may keep temperatures a little more elevated in pockets (imaged above), along with dry soil content. Any dew that occurs could be soaked up by the ground given the horrendously dry soil moisture levels.