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12 01, 2017

‘One in Ten year Storm’ to hit South Australia tonight

What is being dubbed as a ‘once in ten year Summer storm’ is forecast to hit South Australia tonight bringing heavy rain, flash flooding and damaging winds to large parts of the State. Above image ‘Rainfall forecast’ via OCF/BSCH

 

During Thursday afternoon, a frontal system is forecast to be located over South-East WA. During Thursday evening this front is forecast to move into Western SA and during the night its likely to move North-East to cover all of the State except for the Far North-East. Along this system, thunderstorms are likely to develop as hot temperatures combine with cooler more moist air from the Bight. Behind the system, heavy rain is likely to be generated as a constant moisture flow feeds in off the Bight and over land.

 

 

 

The kind of rainfall which is forecast to hit, especially areas such as the West Coast and Eyre Peninsula’s (both Lower and Eastern) is expected to be widespread falls of 25-50mm and isolated falls of up to 100mm. This kind of rainfall is typically only seen on a 1 in 10 year basis. Areas such as the North-West Pastoral, Mount Lofty Ranges, Mid North and Flinders are also expected to see heavy rainfall in the early hours of Friday with falls of 10-30mm widespread and isolated falls to 50mm not ruled out, falls in excess of 50mm are likely over the Mount Lofty Ranges.

Strong to damaging wind gusts of 60-90km/h are likely to accompany this system which may bring down some trees and cut power to homes. This system should also be responsible for bringing much cooler conditions to the State for the next few days.

 

BOM 24hr rainfall from 10pm Thursday to 10pm Friday

BOM 24hr rainfall from 10pm Thursday to 10pm Friday

 

A severe weather warning for heavy rain and damaging winds is currently active for this event, while a flood watch for localised road inundation, localised flash flooding and minor creek/river flooding is also active.

 

 

12 01, 2017

Thunderstorms to make a return to SEQ and NENSW

Over the next 4 days, thunderstorms are expected to make a comeback to North-East NSW, South-East QLD, Southern Inland QLD and parts of Central QLD. This is all being brought on by the return also of an extreme heatwave. The very hot conditions caused by the heatwave are likely to interact with enough moisture to trigger widespread instability across the above mentioned regions on each day. This should lead to conditions becoming favourable for some thunderstorm, and severe thunderstorm, development.

 

There is a catch though.. each given day is also throwing multiple issues into the mix which will severely hinder some areas from seeing storms (especially along the Coastal fringe). The biggest catch is a large cap which is requiring very high temperatures and good humidity to break – temperatures the Coast is failing to see. Another is poor steering – the way the storms move. The steering winds are both weak and on Thursday theres also the addition of steering winds moving from South to North over SEQ which means storms won’t track towards the Coastline. A lack of surface trough also doesn’t help thunderstorm chances as organisation and duration will be average – storms could just go up and come down straight away.

 

Instability levels for Thursday via BSCH

Instability levels for Thursday via BSCH

Instability levels for Friday via BSCH

Instability levels for Friday via BSCH

Thursday is expected to see activity focused over North-East NSW with some severe cells likely. These storms may also impact Southern parts of SEQ. Friday, again North-East NSW is the location to be for the better activity with the entire South-East corner of QLD seeing some potential also. Saturday and severe storms are once again likely across NENSW and now also into SEQ and parts of Central QLD. Sunday the entire South-East corner of QLD is under potential. Heavy rain looks to be the biggest threat on each day, with locally good falls expected under storms. 

Instability levels for Saturday via BSCH

Instability levels for Saturday via BSCH

Instability levels for Sunday via BSCH

Instability levels for Sunday via BSCH

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11 01, 2017

Ridiculous Heat heading for Northern NSW

Northern Inland NSW is about to feel the full effects of this heatwave, with temperatures reaching the high 40’s!!

A heat trough is expected to be located over the region during Wednesday and into Thursday before shifting and weakening on Friday but remaining at least in the vicinity where the effects will be maximised. This heat trough is combining with an incredibly warm air mass above the region to draw in as much heat as possible leading to temperatures reaching the mid to high 40’s across the Wednesday to Friday block.

 

BOM Heatwave Pilot showing Extreme Heatwave conditions for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

BOM Heatwave Pilot showing Extreme Heatwave conditions for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

 

 

On Wednesday, a surface trough is likely to aid Sydney and the Hunter/Central Coast in reaching the high 30’s / low 40’s, but across Northern Inland NSW widespread temperatures are likely to exceed 40ºc with areas across the NW Slopes and Plains and North-West corner likely to reach 44ºc. Bourke is heading for a top of 45-46ºc.

Forecast maximums via OCF for NSW on Wednesday (January 11th)

Forecast maximums via OCF for NSW on Wednesday (January 11th)

After a warm night with temps hovering around the 27-30ºc, Thursday is expected to be just as warm with maximums widespread above 40ºc and locations such as Bourke heading for 44ºc+. Thursday out of the 3 days is expected to be the coolest (if you can call 44ºc cool).

 

Forecast maximums via OCF for NSW on Thursday (January 12th)

Forecast maximums via OCF for NSW on Thursday (January 12th)

 

 

Another very warm night with maximums failing to drop below 30ºc is expected to make way for an absolute scorcher on Friday. Virtually ALL of Inland NSW is expected to see 40ºc+, areas such as the Central Coast and Hunter are also going to bake under 40ºc temps. Virtually the entire North-West corner of the State is going for 44ºc+ with areas like Boukre and Wilcannia heading for 46 to possibly 48ºc!!!

 

Forecast maximums via OCF for NSW on Friday (January 13th)

Forecast maximums via OCF for NSW on Friday (January 13th)

 

 

These conditions of prolonged very extreme heat are a reminder to take care under these conditions, with many farmers in country NSW its advised to avoid strenuous activity during peak heating, drink PLENTY of water and look after those around you – especially the elderly, young, sick, pregnant and pets/animals as they are all more at risk of heat stress.

 

 

 

10 01, 2017

Extreme Heatwave conditions to bake SEQ & NENSW

South-East QLD and North-East NSW are about to enter another round of extreme heat. A warm air mass is forecast to move overhead and combine with a series of troughs to produce significant heating across South-East QLD and North-East NSW specifically. Above image: Maximums temperatures for Saturday via OCF/BSCH for SEQ and NENSW

 

BOM Heatwave Pilot showing Extreme Heatwave conditions for Thursday, Friday, Saturday

BOM Heatwave Pilot showing Extreme Heatwave conditions for Thursday, Friday, Saturday

 

 

 

Models are predicting the proper heat to begin on Wednesday with temperatures likely reaching the mid 30’s across both regions, and the high 30’s across Northern NSW. Thursday the roles are reversed with mid 30’s across the board and high 30’s in Inland parts of SEQ. Friday there is a slight lull in temperatures due to a cool change moving through during Thursday evening, but Saturday is expected to be the pick of the bunch with numerous places likely to exceed 40ºc (Casino, Beaudesert, Boonah, Gatton, Ipswich (possibly)) to name a few, while the remainder climb into mid 30’s. Very warm conditions are likely to remain in place on Sunday, but a vigorous cool change should limit heating.

Forecast maximums via OCF for SEQ/NENSW on Wednesday (January 11th)

Forecast maximums via OCF for SEQ/NENSW on Wednesday (January 11th)

Forecast maximums via OCF for SEQ/NENSW on Thursday (January 12th)

Forecast maximums via OCF for SEQ/NENSW on Thursday (January 12th)

This increase in heating across the region and the addition of a trough drawing in moisture is likely to trigger thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening each day. Thankfully for those who receive storms, overnight temperatures will be tolerable, but for those who don’t it could take a bit of time to cool down. Minimums overall are likely to remain in the low to mid 20’s for much of the night before rapidly increasing the following morning once the sun comes up.

Forecast maximums via OCF for SEQ/NENSW on Friday (January 13th)

Forecast maximums via OCF for SEQ/NENSW on Friday (January 13th)

Forecast maximums via OCF for SEQ/NENSW on Saturday (January 14th)

Forecast maximums via OCF for SEQ/NENSW on Saturday (January 14th)

Heat stress at times will be an issue, and its a timely reminder to slip slop slap (especially over the weekend when families have time to be out in the sun). Drink plenty of water. Look after the elderly, young, pregnant and animals/pets as they are the most at risk of heat stress, and avoid strenuous activity during the middle of the day. 

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10 01, 2017

Extreme Heatwave to sizzle Southern QLD

Southern Inland QLD is about to experience a blast of extreme heat. A heat trough is forecast to become firmly established over Northern Inland NSW and South-West QLD over the Wednesday and drift very slowly towards the East across Thursday and Friday. This heat trough is expected to produce stifling (extreme heatwave) conditions across Northern NSW, but more specifically (for this blog) Southern Inland and South-West QLD.

BOM Heatwave Pilot showing Extreme Heatwave conditions for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

BOM Heatwave Pilot showing Extreme Heatwave conditions for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

 

On Wednesday, areas South of Boulia / Charleville and West of Goondiwindi are locked in for 40ºc+ with some areas likely to see 44-46ºc! This is likely to be followed by a stifling night across the region with minimums unlikely to drop below 30ºc in the far South-West of QLD.

 

Forecast maximums via OCF for QLD on Wednesday (January 11th)

Forecast maximums via OCF for QLD on Wednesday (January 11th)

 

Thursday, and temperatures are even hotter. Widespread maximums over Southern Inland, South-West and Central Inland QLD are likely to top more than 40ºc with areas in the South-West likely to see at least 45ºc if not hotter! This will be followed again by another night of relentless heat where Thargomindah may not drop below 35ºc (forecast for 34ºc minimum).

 

Forecast maximums via OCF for QLD on Thursday (January 12th)

Forecast maximums via OCF for QLD on Thursday (January 12th)

 

 

Friday… same area, same temperatures. Widespread 40ºc+ over Southern/Central Inland and South-West QLD with maximums nudging the mid 40’s again over South-West regions. Birdsville, Thargomindah, Cunnamulla, Ballera, Quilpie are all likely to see 44ºc (just to name a few), with some of these locations potentially reaching 45 or 46ºc again. Followed yet again by a mid-30ºc night where areas such as Thargomindah and that Far South-West corner are likely to stay above 35ºc for most of the night.

 

Forecast maximums via OCF for QLD on Friday (January 13th)

Forecast maximums via OCF for QLD on Friday (January 13th)

 

Saturday should be the last day of the relentless heat with maximums backing off to around 40-43ºc through Southern and South-West QLD, 37-40ºc over Central Inland. This is due to a trough moving through which is likely to generate some thunderstorm activity and also bring cooler winds in the wake of it.

 

Forecast maximums via OCF for QLD on Saturday (January 14th)

Forecast maximums via OCF for QLD on Saturday (January 14th)

 

While these kinds of temperatures aren’t foreign to these regions of Queensland. Their prolonged nature and consistency is uncommon in the grand scheme of things, thats why extreme heatwave criteria has been met. Its once again a reminder that during periods of prolonged uncommon heat that people be aware of the conditions and look after themselves.

 

 

7 01, 2017

Inland Australia set to see a Summer Scorcher

Inland parts of Australia, most notably South-West QLD, North-West NSW and North-East SA are about to bake under what is technically a heatwave – even by their standards.

A heat trough is forecast to park itself over Central Australia for the next week, roughly stretching from Inland Western Australia, through Northern South Australia and into New South Wales. This heat trough is expected to help not only maximum temperatures skyrocket up to 6-8ºc above average, but also minimums are set to do the same.

 

BOM Heatwave Pilot showing Extreme Heatwave conditions to end the week

BOM Heatwave Pilot showing Extreme Heatwave conditions to end the week

The real heat is expected to start on Monday in North-East South Australia and only marginally creep into South-West QLD. Maximums are likely to reach the mid 40’s over North-East SA and the low to mid 40’s into QLD. This will lead to a hot start on Tuesday with minimums unlikely to drop below 30 and stay in the mid 30’s most of the night. Both regions are then likely to push into the mid 40’s with areas such as Birdsville heading for 45ºc and Moomba/Oodnadatta potentially seeing 46 or 47ºc. A repeat on Wednesday and Thursday is likely with Thursday potentially becoming more widespread with several locations heading for 45ºc and some possibly up to around 48ºc. Overnight minimums don’t drop off, some places may struggle to drop below 35ºc all night.

Minimums for Tuesday (Jan 10th) via OCF/BSCH

Minimums for Tuesday (Jan 10th) via OCF/BSCH

Maximums for Tuesday (Jan 10th) via OCF/BSCH

Maximums for Tuesday (Jan 10th) via OCF/BSCH

Minimums for Wednesday (Jan 11th) via OCF/BSCH

Minimums for Wednesday (Jan 11th) via OCF/BSCH

Maximums for Wednesday (Jan 11th) via OCF/BSCH

Maximums for Wednesday (Jan 11th) via OCF/BSCH

On Friday, the heat is expected to remain but a cool change should move through, aided by thunderstorms to bring relief to South Australia mainly. Maximums are expected to reach 46-49ºc over the North-East with Birdsville possibly heading for 46 or 47ºc. Northern NSW not much cooler. Minimums around Oodnadatta are UNLIKELY to drop 35ºc on Friday morning!! Saturday gives Birdsville one last crack at potentially a 5th straight 45ºc day as the heatwave engulfs Southern/Central QLD.

Minimums for Thursday (Jan 12th) via OCF/BSCH

Minimums for Thursday (Jan 12th) via OCF/BSCH

Maximums for Thursday (Jan 12th) via OCF/BSCH

Maximums for Thursday (Jan 12th) via OCF/BSCH

Minimums for Friday (Jan 13th) via OCF/BSCH

Minimums for Friday (Jan 13th) via OCF/BSCH

Maximums for Friday (Jan 13th) via OCF/BSCH

Maximums for Friday (Jan 13th) via OCF/BSCH

27 12, 2016

Extreme New Year Heatwave for SEQ & NENSW

Much of Southern and Central Inland QLD are expected to end the 2016 calendar year with a hot spell, but the focus is forecast to be over the North-East NSW and South-East QLD districts where EXTREME heatwave conditions are LIKELY.

 

 

A very warm airmass is forecast to move over the region on the 29th of December with very warm and humid North-East winds expected to feed into the region. The combination of these 2 ingredients is expected to produce well above average temperatures. As the days progress this heat is expected to be amplified even more, with some regions expected to nudge the 40ºc mark.

The criteria for a heatwave is 3 consecutive days of 4ºc or more above average. For most “warmer” regions. Most regions across this period are expected to see at least 3 days of 5-6ºc above average, and some areas up to 10ºc above average marking this as an EXTREME Heatwave.

BOM Heatwave pilot conditions indicating EXTREME Heatwave conditions

BOM Heatwave pilot conditions indicating EXTREME Heatwave conditions

 

Forecast Maximums for Friday, December 30th, via BSCH/OCF

Forecast Maximums for Friday, December 30th, via BSCH/OCF

Forecast Maximums for Saturday, December 31st, via BSCH/OCF

Forecast Maximums for Saturday, December 31st, via BSCH/OCF

The hottest days are forecast to be New Years Eve and New Years Day where temperatures are expected to nudge 40ºc through inland parts of both South-East QLD and North-East NSW. Coastal areas should climb into the mid 30’s also, with Brisbane going for potentially 35ºc both days and Ipswich up to 38ºc both days. There will be very little reprieve from the heat as overnight minimums struggle to drop into the mid 20’s. Humidity will also make things feel a whole lot hotter, with bayside regions sitting on 50-70% and inland regions sitting on 30-50%. This will make conditions feel up to 5ºc hotter for some. 

Forecast Maximums for Sunday, January 1st, via BSCH/OCF

Forecast Maximums for Sunday, January 1st, via BSCH/OCF

Forecast Maximums for Monday, January 2nd, via BSCH/OCF

Forecast Maximums for Monday, January 2nd, via BSCH/OCF

This is a reminder to be mindful under heatwave conditions. Drink plenty of WATER, wear light clothes, avoid strenuous activity during the heat of the day, wear plenty of sunscreen if you are outside and be mindful of the elderly, pregnant, young children and pets/animals as they are most susceptible to heat stress.

 

 

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24 12, 2016

Christmas Rain coming for Central AUS!

Central Australia is about to be delivered a Christmas wish, with widespread rainfall likely to bring good falls to the entirety of Interior Australia over the Christmas/Boxing Day period.

A tropical low which originated near Darwin has since tracked over the Kimberley producing record breaking rainfall over Broome and significant widespread rainfall over the Kimberley and Eastern WA. This low is expected to be located West of Giles during Christmas Day and begin to track in a more South-Easterly direction where it should be located over Northern SA during Boxing Day before moving into the Bight and disintegrating.

OCF Forecast Rainfall for Christmas Day via BSCH

OCF Forecast Rainfall for Christmas Day via BSCH

OCF Forecast Rainfall for Boxing Day via BSCH

OCF Forecast Rainfall for Boxing Day via BSCH

While the low sits over Central Australia, a large and very strong Northerly moisture fetch is forecast to feed down from the waters off of the Northern Territory and Gulf of Carpentaria. This moisture is expected to feed into a warm environment creating large areas of convection leading to scattered storms and widespread rain areas. These rain areas should be prolonged and produce widespread falls of 50-150mm across Southern NT, Northern SA and Eastern WA. Isolated falls of 200mm+ cant be ruled out. Flooding is likely with some towns potentially being isolated. There is also the chance that some 24hr records MAY be broken.

Gusty winds may also accompany the low as it maintains a fairly solid and intense circulation. These winds COULD bring down some trees and rattle a few windows, especially through areas such as Giles (Eastern WA) and Northern/North-West SA on Christmas/Boxing Day, Central Coastal/Adelaide Metro on Tuesday. A flood watch is already in place and a severe weather warning is probable for South Australia.

Forecast 4 day rainfall via BOM

Forecast 4 day rainfall via BOM

29 11, 2016

Severe – Extreme Heatwave conditions to hit QLD & Northern NSW!

Above image: © Higgins Storm Chasing – Queensland maximum temperature forecast 

Virtually the entire State of Queensland and the Northern half of New South Wales (North of Newcastle to Broken Hill) are forecast experience heatwave conditions from this Thursday onward. Very hot and potentially dangerous temperatures will abruptly start the Summer season which could last for up to a week! This forecast will also greatly increase fire danger ratings to severe and possibly extreme for large areas. There is a heightened health risk to humans, pets, livestock and wildlife during this weather event.  

 

A near stationary low pressure trough is forecast to be located over inland Queensland from Thursday until at least Monday, possibly longer. This will create a stagnant air mass with very hot and dry Northerly and Westerly winds feeding in over Northern New South Wales and most of Queensland. This will lead to Severe – Extreme heatwave conditions across Central and Southern Queensland districts extending into Northern New South Wales. Heatwave conditions are forecast for at least 85% of Queensland this weekend! 

On each given day between Thursday and Monday virtually all of inland Queensland and Northern inland New South Wales districts have forecast maximum temperatures of between 38 – 42c. South West and Central West Queensland districts may see maximum temperatures as high as 42 – 45c. Along and within 15kms of the Queensland / Northern New South Wales coastline, maximum temperatures will also be hot but slightly less than inland areas with most going for 31 – 35c. A strong note with these temperatures is the significant increase as soon as you are located just inland away from the beach front.

These very high temperatures are not uncommon on occasions during the Summer months however the prolonged nature of this weather event is what’s leading to the Severe – Extreme heatwave conditions being forecast. Highest ever recorded December temperatures may not necessarily occur, although some towns are forecast to go very close to breaking and setting new long standing records. 

Please click here and read the very informative and important safety information about heatwaves from the Queensland Government!

 

nsw-heat-dec-1-to-5

Above image: © Higgins Storm Chasing – New South Wales maximum temperature forecast

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25 11, 2016

Second weekend in a row with Tropical Low

Models are suggesting for a second weekend running that a tropical low is likely to form around the Solomon Islands. Above image via BSCH showing the wind streamlines at their forecast maximum intensity on Wednesday

Global models are in agreement that during late Friday or more likely during Saturday, a tropical low is likely to develop to the South-West of the Solomon Islands in the Northern Coral Sea. All models do have this system tracking shifting South to South-East so it is LIKELY to remain offshore from Queensland and pose no threat to the Coast (at this stage – things can change).

 

Models are also in agreement that during the early stages of next week, that conditions are expected to be favourable for the system to begin intensifying and there is a chance (albeit small) that it could become a weak Tropical Cyclone near New Caledonia. If it doesn’t become a cyclone (as stated is a small chance), then strong tropical low formation is expected.

 

GFS Sunday wind observations showing the full formation of the Low

GFS Sunday wind observations showing the full formation of the Low

Around the system (regardless of strength), intense to dangerous sea conditions with large waves are likely. Thunderstorms are also likely to develop around the system and these could become severe with heavy rain and damaging winds. Heavy rain is also likely. 

At this stage there is no threat to the Queensland Coast, however the clockwise rotation of the system may indirectly impact Queenslands Eastern seaboard but drawing in extra moisture to a surface trough leading to shower and thunderstorm developments.

Rainfall totals via PivotalWeather showing widespread falls over 200mm (yellow) and up to 700mm

Rainfall totals via PivotalWeather showing widespread falls over 200mm (yellow) and up to 700mm

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