Jeff

/Jeff Higgins

About Jeff Higgins

I have had a passion for weather since I was 8 years old. In 2011 I created Higgins Storm Chasing on Facebook which has now grown into a successful meteorology business.
23 05, 2018

Strong Cold Front For Perth & SW WA!


Issued 23rd May 2018.
Perth and SW WA’s run of warm dry weather is about to come to an end late Thursday into Friday as a strong cold front moves through. Above image showing damaging winds over 100km hr on Thursday night via Windy.com

By Thursday Perth will have registered a record breaking 16 days straight with maximum temperatures above 24C and as high as 32C. The city has also recorded just 6mm for the month so far and only 130mm for the year.

Between 6pm and midnight on Thursday the cold from is expected to cross the coast from as far north as Exmouth all the way down to Albany. Initially very strong winds to 80km hr will be felt from the North just before the front, then they swing to the West with damaging winds to 100km hr and possible gusts to 120km hr with storms. 

Models are indicating a solid band of rain and storms to stretch from the Central West, down through the Lower West into the South West on Thursday night. The rain and storms will be travelling at very high speed from the North West towards the South East due to strong wind shear. Some storms are likely to contain damaging almost destructive winds as they race through. 

It is going to be a cold wet and windy day across South West WA on Friday with top temps of 17C and winds gusting to 60 to 80km hr.

Rainfall totals from the system at this stage are between 20 and 40mm for the Lower West and South West districts, 10 to 20mm for the Central West tapering off to around 10mm for the Central Wheatbelt and Great Southern districts.

By Friday afternoon the cold front with strong Westerly winds and a band of showers will have reach as far inland as Tom Price and Cocklebiddy Roadhouse. Below image showing the solid band of rain and storms on Thursday night via Windy.com

SWWARAIN23RDMAY2018

21 05, 2018

Large Blocking High Pressure System

Issued 21st May 2018. The large blocking high pressure system that dominated Australia’s weather last week and it is set to remain slow moving towards the East this week keeping most of the country fine and sunny. Above image via Windy.com

Sunny days and cool mornings will continue to be the norm across most of Australia this week as a large blocking high pressure system remains very slow moving. The only place to gain any reasonable rainfall during the past 7 days has been Western Tasmania due to the onshore Westerly flow. These showers will ease this week with about 20mm expected.

Morning frosts have featured most mornings along the Tablelands of NSW, the ACT and parts of Southern inland QLD due to clear night skies and light winds. These are also set to continue this week.

As the high moves finally moves further East late in the week, winds will become more onshore along the QLD coast which is likely to increase shower activity. 7 day rainfall totals will be patchy and generally less than 15mm is expected until Sunday. QLD daily, weekly and 3 monthly forecasts available here! 

Later in the week a significant cold front is set to break the lengthy run of above average temperatures in Perth and South West WA. Late on Thursday into Friday the front is likely to bring a solid band of showers, rain and isolated storms from Exmouth to Albany including Perth. The front is also likely to bring damaging winds up to 100km hr across many South West WA districts. Between 25 to 50mm is forecast from the system which will also bring an end to the extended period of no rainfall. Further forecasts will be issued for this system.

A fine weekend is forecast across all of Australia except coastal QLD where those showers are likely to increase. 

No snow is forecast across the Alps of anywhere in Australia during the next 7 days. HSC snow maps available here! 

15 05, 2018

Space Station Visible Over Brisbane, Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne!

Issued for Thursday 17th May 2018. Be sure to look up in the sky on Thursday night shortly after sunset and show the kids! The ISS or International Space Station will make a visible pass directly over South East Australia for 6 minutes at each location. Above image via ISS astroviewer.

The following times are for South East QLD and North East NSW districts. Beginning at 5:48pm this the ISS will start to be seen in the South West sky while heading towards the North East. At 5:52pm it will be passing directly over North East NSW. By 5:55pm it will vanish again off in a North East direction over the Coral Sea.
Sydney and Canberra beginning at 5:47pm this the ISS will start to be seen in the South West sky while heading towards the North East. At 5:50pm it will be passing directly over Central inland NSW. By 5:53pm it will vanish again off in a North East direction.
Melbourne 
begins at 5:45pm and the ISS will start to be seen in the South West sky while heading towards the North East. At 5:48pm it will be passing directly over Central Victoria. By 5:52pm it will vanish again off in a North East direction.


For other locations and exact times please click on this link and use the search box! 

These times are about 25 to 40 minutes after sunset which is the best time to view the ISS due to sunlight being reflected off the craft. It will look like a bright star moving across the sky and can be easily seen by eye. There is some cloud cover forecast across Victoria though NSW, ACT and Southern / South East QLD are expecting clear skies. 

 

ISS Fun Facts 

• It travels at 27,600km hr or 276 x faster than a car going along the highway!
• It orbits around the earth 15.5 times a day or once every 92 minutes! 
• It weighs 419 tons or equivalent to 279 family cars!
• The ISS is bigger than a football field – 108 meters wide x 72 meters long and 20 meters high! 
• There are 6 people on board ATM which is maximum capacity! 
• It has been up there for 19 and a half years and has gone around the world over 100,000 times! 
• It flies between 330km and 435km above the earth and falls closer to the earth by 2km every month!
• Expedition 55 is the 55th expedition which began upon the departure of Soyuz MS-06 on February 27, 2018. Anton Shkaplerov, Scott D. Tingle and Norishige Kanai were transferred from Expedition 54, with Anton Shkaplerov taking the commander role. They are currently in space.

intssnasa

An actual photo of the International Space Station via NASA

10 05, 2018

Hobart Could Break 177 Year Rainfall Record

Issued 10th May 2018. With heavy rainfall of 50 to 100mm forecast during the next 24 to 48 hours, Hobart could break its 177 year daily rainfall record. Above rainfall forecast via Windy.com

A deep low pressure system is developing over the state on Thursday which is forecast to move East and be located North East of Tasmania on Friday morning. Hobart is likely to see rainfall increase with moderate to locally heavy falls during Thursday and Friday as deep strong South East winds drag high amounts of moisture across the coast.

The May daily rainfall record at Botanical Gardens in Hobart is 49.5mm set back in 1973, records began here in 1841!

Nearby at Ellerslie Road in Hobart the record is 46.7mm set back in 1958, records began at this location in 1882. 

This system certainly has the potential to set new rainfall records in Hobart so we will just have to wait and see if that actually happens. 

Damaging winds are expected to greatly increase late Thursday as the low moves East and deepens. These winds will come from a different direction than people are used to in Tasmania. Instead of being the typical South West to West they will be South to South East straight off the coast. Wind gusts may reach 100km hr in Hobart with higher gusts to 125km hr across elevated areas. Below image showing wind gusts via Windy.com
TASHOBARTWINDS10THMAY2018

20cm of snow is expected across Central districts above 900m during Thursday. 

Most of Eastern half of Tasmania is set to receive a drenching along with strong to damaging winds over the next 2 days. The system moves North East along the NSW coast on Saturday which will ease conditions across Tasmania. 

 

 

9 05, 2018

Cold Blast On The Way For South Australia!


Issued 9th May 2018. South East South Australia including Adelaide will feel a Winter like cold blast on Thursday and Friday this week. Adelaide is heading for a chilly top of 16C on Thursday with an extra 5C less for wind chill factor. This system will bring an end to the above average Autumn temperatures experienced so far. Above image maximum temperatures via BSCH.

A deep low pressure system is moving North East across the Eastern Bight on Wednesday afternoon which is forecast to develop further in Bass Straight during Thursday. A very strong cold Southerly airmass will push across South East South Australia with wind gusts between 60 and 80km hr. 

Showers and possible isolated inland storms are likely to develop on Thursday, both could contain small hail due to very cold upper level air. Rainfall totals are only expected to be 5 to 15mm at best unfortunately. Below image showing very strong Southerly winds in red and purple during Thursday via Windy.com

 

 

SACOLDWINDS10THMAY2018

Minimum temperatures will drop to between 4 and 7C across inland parts of the South East though frosts are unlikely at this stage. 

Very large swell of 4 to 6 meters is also expected to develop along the South East Coast from Kangaroo Island to the Victorian border. Wave heights of 2 to 2.7 meters are forecast in open waters of the Spencer Gulf and St Vincent Gulf. This large swell will begin to ease during Friday. 

9 05, 2018

Big Low To Hit Tasmania With Heavy Rain, Damaging Winds And Snow!


Issued 9th May 2018. A big low pressure system is forecast to impact large parts of Tasmania on Thursday and Friday this week bringing SEVERE weather with it. Hobart the states capital is expected to see damaging winds up to 100km hr along with heavy rain up to 100mm which may lead to flash flooding. Above image showing rainfall forecast totals across Tasmania from the system via Weather.us

A cold front will cross the state today bringing strong winds and showers before a deep cut off low develops on Thursday and passes directly over Tasmania. The low then deepens further just to the East of the state late Thursday and during Friday.

Strong to damaging South to South East winds are forecast to develop across Southern districts including Hobart late on Thursday before spreading state wide during Friday. Wind gusts along the coast are expected to reach 100km hr while elevated areas may see gusts upper to 120km hr. 

Due to the South East onshore flow, rain areas with moderate to locally heavy falls are likely to develop across the Eastern half of the state on Thursday afternoon then continue into Friday. The South East quarter of the state including Hobart has 50 to 100mm of rain forecast during the 2 days. This may cause some flash flooding, river, creek and stream rises. Most other parts such as the North East, Central and West are likely to see 20 to 40mm while the North West may pick up around 15mm. Below image showing the rain in blue and snow in yellow / white on Thursday night via Meteo.
TASRAINSNOWTHURS10THMAY2018

Maximum temperatures will plummet down to 7C in Central areas and less than 15C is expected across the rest of the state on Thursday, Friday and Saturday as the cold air gets forced up from the South. Snow is also forecast down to 800 meters with the Central Plateau area likely to see falls of up to 20cms. 

Conditions are set to slowly improve on Saturday with rain easing to showers and winds dropping down to around 50km hr in the afternoon. Below image showing the low and winds at 7am on Friday via BSCH.
TASLOWFRIMAY11TH2018

2 05, 2018

Near Normal No ICE AGE This Winter For QLD


Issued May 2nd 2018. The 3 month Winter outlook temperatures across Queensland are confidently forecast by global models to be near normal. Rainfall is expected to be slightly below average across large parts of the state, especially Eastern districts. Above image: 3 month Winter temperature forecast showing very slightly cooler conditions through inland parts, very slightly above average in the South East and near normal across remaining districts via Tropical Tidbits.

With Winter just one month away the big question on everyones lips is “how cold is it going to be?” Despite the incredible claims of “a record cold Winter with snow where it has never snowed before” from a media proclaimed climate expert in Brisbane, this is highly unlikely to occur. At Higgins Storm Chasing we do not use sunspot activity to produce long range forecasts, these extreme claims will need to be proven a number of times here in Australia before we even consider it. 

After well above temperatures occurred across the state during April, conditions are now cooling quickly back to near normal during May. All the humidity is almost gone with days and nights becoming much cooler now. We expect the first frosts to develop across Southern inland parts of the state later this month. Sea surface temperatures around Queensland have also now cooled to near normal. 

During June, July and August, Winter temperatures across Queensland are expected to be near normal just like most other years. There are negligible areas of slightly above and below however these are less than 0.5C. There will be extensive frosts through Central and Southern inland which are likely to edge close to Brisbane the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast at times. Some frosts are also likely on a few mornings across the North Tropical tablelands. 
We may see a few sleet and snow falls on the Granite Belt this year but this will come down to extreme cold pools with the right required moisture levels. The coldest locations will be across Southern inland QLD where minimums should get down to -5C or even colder in some locations with South West wind chill factors of below 10C on some days. 

The second biggest question is rainfall…

 

Despite widespread flooding through parts of Western and Northern Queensland during the wet season, large parts of the state recorded below average rainfall. There were good showers storms and rain areas around but they remained hit n miss with very little follow up. Sadly this trend is likely to continue inland with dry conditions spreading to coastal regions during Winter. Below image: rainfall forecast anomaly for July with June and August showing similar values via Weather.us
QLDWINTERRAINFALLJULY2018
Near normal rainfall is forecast across the Western half of the state during Winter (which isn’t much in the gauge). Below average rainfall is forecast across the Eastern half of the state which could mean around 50mm less over the 3 months. The equatorial Pacific Ocean has warmed to neutral ENSO conditions (neither La Nina or El Nino) which is forecast to remain unchanged. The IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) is showing forecast signs of going into a positive phase during Winter which can increase rainfall to above average across Southern parts of Australia. This is unlikely to have any impact on Queensland’s rainfall though we will monitor the situation for changes. 

So overall Winter across the state this year is forecast to be just the same as most other years… Mostly fine and dry everyday with sunny mild days and cool nights. Morning frosts will feature across the Central, Southern and South East inland. Morning Fog patches will also become frequent, tending thick at times across the South East. 
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23 04, 2018

Another very warm April day in SA

Issued 23rd April 2018. Yet another very warm to hot day well above average temperatures is expected across South Australia today. Above image via BSCH.

A surface trough will drag very warm to hot North West winds down across the state on Monday. Maximum temperatures are forecast to be up to 10C above the April average across the state. Adelaide is headed for a top temp of 31C while further inland widespread temps between 33 to 35C are expected.

A cooler change will push East across the Western half of the state during the afternoon producing some showers and storms. The change is forecast to reach Adelaide at around 5pm. 

During Tuesday the cooler Southerly winds will spread through the Southern half of the state but temps will remain high through the North East. Some showers and isolated storms are forecast across the Southern half due to the trough. Adelaide will cool to 26C on Tuesday then 21C on Wednesday. 

17 04, 2018

Cooler Wet Weather For SEQLD

Issued 17th April 2018. After a run of above average temperatures and clear blue skies, Queensland’s South East Coast is expected to end the week with cooler wet weather. Above image 5 day rainfall forecast totals via Windy.com Green = 10 – 25mm, Brown = 5 – 10mm.

A very warm day is expected today with Brisbane and Ipswich headed for a top of 31C, the Gold and Sunshine Coasts won’t be far behind on 30C. During the afternoon a South East wind change is forecast to develop with gusts up to 45km  hour along the coast. 

On Wednesday winds turn more deeper onshore from the South East dragging in additional moisture while an Upper Trough of cold air moves overhead causing instability. Scattered afternoon showers and the slight chance of an inland storm are likely to develop across the South East Coast. Falls to 9am Thursday of between 10 to 20mm are forecast along the coast decreasing to around 5mm inland along the Great Dividing Range. Maximum temperatures will drop by up to 5C compared on previous days with tops around 27C.

During Thursday scattered showers are likely to continue across the South East Coast due to the onshore wind flow along with the chance of a few inland storms during the afternoon. 24 hour totals up to 15mm are expected along with continued cooler maximum temperatures of 26C.
A stronger trough moves through Southern inland QLD across the Warrego and Maranoa which is likely to produce scattered showers and storms during the afternoon. Some of this activity could push East onto the Darling Downs during the evening.

For Friday the instability increases further across most of the South East due to a new Upper Trough of cold air which is likely to result in further showers along the coast with showers and storms through South East and Southern inland districts. 

Across the weekend unstable conditions are forecast to remain in place with further showers and isolated storms likely across the South East quarter of the state. 
Detailed rainfall and storm forecasts and maps for all of QLD are offered through our Premium Membership service. Subscribe here! 

28 03, 2018

Queensland Easter Forecast 2018

Issued 28th March 2018. With plenty of media hype and scaremongering forecasts for Easter here is the current outlook from now until Tuesday 3rd of April 2018. Above image: Total 6 day rainfall forecast TOTAL from Wednesday to next Tuesday. 

EX TC Nora a weak low is located in the Southern Gulf of Carpentaria on Wednesday moving quickly West. The system poses NO THREAT to QLD and the NT with some moderate winds and showers expected across the Gulf.

EX TC Iris a low pressure system is 680km North East of Fraser Island moving towards the South West. The system is NOT forecast to re develop into a cyclone. The low is forecast to move South West during Thursday before turning towards the North West on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. It MAY near the Central to North QLD Coast between Mackay and Cairns on Monday and Tuesday but there is a lot of uncertainty of this scenario.

An increase in swell and strong South East winds is expected along the South East Coast including Fraser Island on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Showers are also likely to continue along the South East Coast from Saturday to Tuesday. 6 days totals around 50mm expected on the Sunshine Coast and Fraser Island tending to around 25mm for Brisbane and the Gold Coast with even less inland. 

Central Coast districts between Fraser Island and Mackay strong South East winds and scattered showers are expected from Friday until Tuesday as the system moves past well offshore. Most 5 day rainfall totals are forecast to be between 25 to 50mm here.

Remaining Central Coast to North Coasts districts between Mackay and Cooktown will HIGHLY depend on the exact movements of the low during Monday and Tuesday. At this stage the most likely scenario is an increase in strong South East winds and showers from Friday to Sunday with 25 to 50mm expected. On Monday and Tuesday if the low stays well offshore like a majority of models predict then South East winds and showers will continue with an additional 25mm.
IF the system crosses the coast then a massive increase in rainfall of between 300 to 600mm MIGHT occur between Tully and Mackay. I wouldn’t be delaying or changing my Central to North QLD holiday plans based of this chance forecast!

Some showers and storms are also likely to continue across the Peninsula district during the outlook period.

Temperatures across the Eastern and Northern half of the state are forecast to be between 27 to 33C during Easter outlook period, these increase up to 38C in the South West of the state. 

Mostly fine conditions are forecast across all Central, Southern and Western inland districts with just a slight chance of the odd shower or non severe storm during the next 6 days.