Jeff

/Jeff Higgins

About Jeff Higgins

I have had a passion for weather since I was 8 years old. In 2011 I created Higgins Storm Chasing on Facebook which has now grown into a successful meteorology business.
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12 07, 2019

NSW Central Tablelands snow

2019-07-12T18:56:26+10:00


Issued 12th July 2019. Snow is likely on the Central Tablelands of NSW for most of tomorrow (Saturday).

A very cold polar airmass will move North from Victoria tonight and across the South East quarter of NSW during Saturday. Minimum temperatures of zero are forecast across the CTs early Saturday morning with early showers expected. These showers will fall as snow above 1000 meters ASL and possibly as low as 750 meters bringing Bathurst into contention for possible snow. Orange, Oberon, Crookwell, Blayney, Jenolan Caves and Binda should all expected to see snow tomorrow with 2-5cms of coverage on the cards.

Once it starts in the morning snow showers should continue on the higher elevations all day due to lingering cold air and precipitation.

Top temps of only 4-9C are forecast but with a 60kmhr wind chill factored in the feels like will be sub zero all day. Further south the ACT ranges will also see snow above 800 meters. NO SNOW is forecast on the Northern Tablelands of NSW this time round due to dry air.

It will be also be very cold across VIC, ACT, TAS and NSW forecast blog here > https://higginsstormchasing.com/freezing-temperatures-coming-for-se-aus/
Snow will also hammer TAS and the ALPS forecast blog here > https://higginsstormchasing.com/round-2-for-tas-vic-nsw-begins-friday/
Become a HSC weather subscriber for detailed snow forecasts and maps here > https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/

NSW Central Tablelands snow2019-07-12T18:56:26+10:00
4 07, 2019

WIDESPREAD RAIN FORECAST FOR CENTRAL QLD INCLUDING INLAND AREAS

2019-07-04T11:30:52+10:00

WIDESPREAD RAIN FORECAST FOR CENTRAL QLD INCLUDING INLAND AREAS – Moderate to heavy falls possible for the Central Coast, Capricornia and ranges between Proserpine to Gladstone particularly around Mackay during Thursday night and Friday.
*Showers and rain areas also on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Widespread falls of 25-50mm through the Central inland areas with 100-200mm possible along the coast and ranges. Flash flooding is possible some minor river flooding also possible.

*Scattered showers along the coast from Gladstone south to Coolangatta extending inland to the ranges from Thursday to Monday. Totals of 10-25mm expected.
*Showers and rain areas possible on Saturday and Monday across Southern inland QLD. Potential falls ranging from 10-25mm.
Above image: 5 day rainfall forecast total via ECMWF / Windy.com
 
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WIDESPREAD RAIN FORECAST FOR CENTRAL QLD INCLUDING INLAND AREAS2019-07-04T11:30:52+10:00
26 06, 2019

SEQLD Coast drenched with more to come today!

2019-06-26T10:01:54+10:00


Issued 9am 26th June 2019. Parts of the South East QLD Coast have been drenched with up to 135mm in 24hrs. Scattered showers and rain areas with locally moderate falls to continue today! Above image: 9am radar via Weatherzone.com

We had forecast 10 to 25mm for coastal areas in the South East on Tuesday however the system has delivered much heavier falls earlier than expected. An upper low of cold air is over South East QLD and it is being fed by a deep onshore South East wind flow. When you get 2 systems come together like this the result is over scattered showers and rain areas especially along the coast. 

The below image from BOM shows the 24hr rainfall totals from 9am Tuesday to 9am Wednesday across South East QLD. Red dots = 100mm + with 6 stations recording over 100mm. Bells Creek topped the count with 135mm, Pelican Waters 100mm, Yandina 101mm and Coolum West 109mm. A majority of locations across the Sunshine Coast have recorded 50 to 100mm with rain increasing on Wednesday morning. The Gold Coast, Coolangatta and the Tweed Coast have also recorded some moderate falls. Coomera Shores 51mm, Coolangatta 61mm, Tweed Heads 56mm, Byron Bay 79mm and Ballina 51mm. Ballina also recorded 20mm Monday and 34mm Tuesday with their 3 day total nearing 100mm. Across the greater Brisbane area 10-25mm has been recored so far with more to come. 

The wet weather is set to continue during Wednesday as the upper low and onshore flow reach maximum intensity. Rain areas with moderate to locally heavy fall are likely across the South East Coast especially near the coast from Fraser Island south to Coolangatta. Some locations could see another 100mm over the next 24hrs. 
Scattered showers and light rain areas are also expected across the Wide Bay and Burnett, through inland parts of the South East Coast and also extending further inland across the Darling Downs and Granite Belt. Totals in these Northern and inland areas will however be much lighter with up to 10mm possible. Below image showing the upper low with cold air and clockwise rotating winds over SEQLD via Windy.com

We have had the South East Coast rain forecast and maps current for 3 to 4 days now for our premium members website. For detailed and accurate forecasts subscribe to HSC here! 

SEQLD Coast drenched with more to come today!2019-06-26T10:01:54+10:00
19 06, 2019

Freezing weather for the rest of the week

2019-06-19T12:19:06+10:00

Issued 19th June 2019. Weather conditions will become bitterly cold across large parts of Australia this week as a polar airmass surges North. Over half of the country will experience below average temperatures. Above image showing below average temperatures on Friday via Tropical Tidbits

Before the prospect of a big snow dump is considered forget it. While this system is very cold sadly it is also very dry with only around 5cms of fresh snow for the Alps this week.

A very cold mid to upper level polar airmass will be projected Northwards across South East Australia on Thursday thanks to a slow moving high just west of Tasmania. The polar airmass remains persistent until Monday causing a big reduction in minimum and maximum temperatures across large parts of Australia. Below image the large polar airmass via Windy.com

Widespread morning frosts will develop for the rest of the week through inland South Aust, Victoria, New South Wales, the ACT, Southern Northern Territory and Southern inland Queensland. Severe frosts are expected across the Central and Southern Tablelands of NSW including the ACT where minimums will drop to -4C or less. Ground temperatures could reach a bone chilling -10C. Below image showing minimum temperatures with frost areas circled via OCF/BSCH. 
Cold and gusty Southerly winds will keep maximum temperatures below 15C across South East SA, Tasmania, Victoria, most of NSW and Southern inland QLD for the rest of this week. Adelaide maximum temperatures are 12 to 14C, Hobart 11 to 12C, Melbourne 12 to 14C, Canberra 10 to 12C and Sydney 16C. The much cooler weather and morning frosts will extend well into QLD. Coastal districts including the tropics south from Cairns will be in the low 20s while across the Southern inland it will be very cold. Toowoomba 15C, Charleville 15 to 17C and Birdsville 17C are all below average for this time of year. Below image maximum temperatures on Friday below 15C via OCF/BSCH.

While the start of Winter has been fairly mild the rest of this week will remain us how cold it can get. Much sure you have the Winter woollies ready along with plenty of firewood! HSC daily forecasts and maps for Victoria, NSW, ACT and QLD available on our subscription service here! 

Freezing weather for the rest of the week2019-06-19T12:19:06+10:00
11 06, 2019

Follow Up Rain For SA, VIC & Parts Of NSW

2019-06-11T14:08:55+10:00

Issued 11th June 2019. Widespread follow up rain is expected on Wednesday and Thursday across the South East quarter of South Australia, Western and Central Victoria and parts of NSW. Above image: ECWMF rainfall forecast via Windy.com

South Australia: It’s been a quiet rainfall start to June across South Australia with only 6mm being recorded in Adelaide. The June long term rainfall average is 80mm so there is some catching up to do this month. Early on Wednesday morning a string surface trough will develop a band of Rain from the North West down across the West Coast. This feature is forecast to increase in intensity as it progresses East across South East SA during Wednesday. Widespread falls of 10-20mm are forecast south of Roxby Downs and East of Ceduna. Some isolated higher totals of 20-30mm are possible around Adelaide and the ranges. A few showers are expected on Thursday as the system clears East.

Victoria: The Southern half of Victoria has had a pretty good start to June with widespread rain occurring from the low last week. Melbourne is up to half of their June rainfall average of 50mm. East Gippsland has also gained some healthy falls this month so far with around 25-50mm recorded. The Alps have had their best start to a season in 19 years with a snow depth of about 75cms. Unfortunately this week considerable snow melt will occur due to warm conditions and a lack of any cold fronts. 
On Wednesday morning a surface trough and cold front will combine to produce a band of scattered showers and rain across Western districts during the morning. This activity will spread further East to be through Central districts during the afternoon and through the North East Alps during the evening. The best falls of 25-50mm are forecast across the Alps of rain. Widespread 10-20mm is forecast through Western and Central districts. Unfortunately the rain shadow from the Alps will mean that Eastern parts of the state largely miss out. 

 

New South Wales: In NSW falls will be much lighter. A band of showers and light areas will move East through Southern inland and Western districts on Wednesday before contracting to the Central inland and Northern inland on Thursday as a very weak system. There is potential for a low pressure system to develop across Northern and North East NSW on Sunday into Monday brining rain and storms. Higgins Storm Chasing rainfall, snow and storm forecasts available on our subscription service here! 

 

Follow Up Rain For SA, VIC & Parts Of NSW2019-06-11T14:08:55+10:00
10 06, 2019

Where Has Winter Gone In QLD?

2019-06-10T11:22:03+10:00


Issued 10th June 2019. Snow last week, feels like Spring this week as Winter temperatures warm to above average across Queensland. Above image: Max temp forecast on Tuesday via OCF/BSCH.

Winter came for a day last week and has gone again this week. Most of the state will climb to warm above average temperatures for the next 5 days. A high pressure system located over the state will produce light winds and clear sunny skies. The lack of any cold fronts with South Westerly winds will mean conditions will feel more like Spring. 


Maximum temperatures will be up to 8C above the June average across the South West with Birdsville heading for 29C on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Mt Isa 30C today then 29C until Friday. Longreach expecting 27C until Saturday with Rockhampton starting out at 27 before reaching 28C on Friday and Saturday. All these locations are 5C above the June average for most of this week.

Down into the South East and it will also be very warm. Brisbane and Ipswich tops of 25 to 26C before a peak of 27C on Friday. Toowoomba’s top of 20C until Saturday is 3C above the long term average. Frosty morning across South East and Southern inland districts will not be around for at least the next 10 days. 

Not rain is expected across the state until Sunday when a trough and possible East Coast Low develop across Central East and South East districts. Detailed HSC rainfall and temperatures forecasts across QLD available here! 
Below images: Top – above average temperature anomalies via Pivotal Weather. Bottom – long term June average max temps via BOM. 

Where Has Winter Gone In QLD?2019-06-10T11:22:03+10:00
7 06, 2019

4 Winter Storms Within 5 Days For Perth And SW WA

2019-06-07T11:45:59+10:00

Issued 7th June 2019. After the second driest May since 1874 in Perth, the first of 4 Winter storms has moved through. Widespread rain has fallen over the past 24hrs across South West WA with 3 more intense system to follow during the next 4 days. Above image: ECMWF rainfall forecast totals for the next 4 days via Windy.com

As wet conditions start to ease on Friday, the next much stronger system in the Southern Ocean is aimed at South West WA. On Saturday a strong cold front will hit the South West and Central West Coast during the afternoon and evening. The front is forecast to contain winds up to 85km hr from the South West with a burst of heavy band of rain. Showers and some isolated storms with hail are also likely to develop. The front will push North East into inland areas overnight. Below image: ECMWF cold front and low during Saturday via Windy.com

On Sunday strong cold Westerly winds will be maintained across the South West quarter of the state along with showers. SNOW is likely to fall on the Sterling Ranges especially on Bluff Knoll down to 1000 meters on Sunday morning as a very cold upper low moves overhead. Below image: GFS upper cold pool for snow on Sunday morning.

During Monday a third wave of strong winds to 90kmhr will move through the South West quarter of the state along with a round of scattered showers, isolated storms with hail and rain. A low pressure system is forecast to develop just offshore from south West and Southern Coastal districts. 

Tuesday will see the low pressure system continue to produce showers and storms with hail across the South West quarter. Winds strangely enough will ease. 

Overall it will be a very wet wild cold and windy period for Perth and the entire South West quarter of Western Australia during the next 4 days. Widespread 50-100mm of rain is expected along South West and Central West coastal areas and the adjacent inland. Widespread 20-40mm through inland parts. 

Wind damage is possible but these won’t be the most powerful systems to hit this Winter. Very cold conditions with top temps of 13 to 18C expected during Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. The rain will be very welcome by many! 

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4 Winter Storms Within 5 Days For Perth And SW WA2019-06-07T11:45:59+10:00
6 06, 2019

Some Winter Rain For QLD

2019-06-06T12:26:33+10:00

Issued 6th June 2019. An upper trough of cold air will trigger widespread instability across the Eastern half of the state on Friday and Saturday. A high pressure system will feed moisture in from the East to produce scattered showers, rain areas and possible isolated storms. The best falls are forecast through the Northern and Central inland where 20-40mm is likely. Above image: ECMWF total rainfall forecast via Windy.com

Forecast for Friday 7th June

An upper trough of cold air will generate unstable conditions across Northern and Central parts of the state. A large high over NSW will deepen the East to South East wind flow across the state with additional moisture. These two systems will produce scattered showers and rain areas along the Central Coast, Central inland and North Tropical Coast with moderate falls possible across the Northern inland. Some isolated storms through the Northern inland are also possible. Fine cloudy conditions are expected across Western and Southern districts with a few coastal showers in the South East. It will be a cool day under the cloud and rain areas across the Northern half of the state. Rainfall map available on our premium service here. 
Forecast for Saturday 8th June

An upper trough of cold air will generate unstable conditions across the Eastern half of the state. A large high in the Tasman Sea will deepen the East to South East wind flow across the Eastern half of the state with additional moisture. These two systems will produce scattered showers and rain areas along the South East Coast, Southern inland, Central Coast and Central inland during the day. Some scattered showers are likely to persist along the North Tropical Coast. Fine partly cloudy conditions are expected across Western half of the state. It will be a cool day under the cloud and rain areas across Eastern districts. Rainfall map available on our premium service here. 

Some Winter Rain For QLD2019-06-06T12:26:33+10:00
1 06, 2019

SNOW Possible In QLD Likely In Northern NSW!

2019-06-01T16:13:19+10:00

Issued June 1st 2019. The “Slamming SAM (Southern Annular Mode)” we recently discussed is going to have a hand in producing snow falls to low levels across Victoria, the ACT, NSW and possibly Southern QLD on Monday and Tuesday. A -30C mid to upper level polar airmass will push Northwards across South East Australia on Monday while a low develops just off the NSW coast. Snow will fall across the Alps, Act and NSW Central Tablelands however we will focus this snow forecast potential for the Granite Belt in QLD and the Northern Tablelands of NSW. Above image: ECMWF forecast showing snow or sleet for the Granite Belt and snow across the Northern Tablelands on Monday night into early Tuesday morning via Windy.com

For snow to occur in Southern QLD and Northern NSW some key atmospheric ingredients need to be forecast and then met. Firstly a very cold airmass of -2C or below at 5000ft needs to be forecast. From around 6pm on Monday evening through until 10am Tuesday morning both the GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting temperature thresholds to be cold enough for snow over Northern NSW and Southern QLD. Below image: Forecast 850mb or 5000ft temperatures. 

Secondly and most importantly precipitation must occur while the very cold airmass is present. This is normally the hardest ingredient to achieve to produce snow because by the time the very cold air reaches this far North is often very dry. Every 1mm of rain in the right conditions = 1cm of snow. Currently 80 to 100% of models are forecasting precipitation across Northern Tablelands and Granite Belt from 9am Monday to 9am Tuesday. A majority of this precipitation is forecast to fall during the coldest snow window of opportunity. Below image: OCF precipitation forecast via BSCH

 So the big snow forecast questions to be asked will be exactly where, when, what time and how much snow??? Is it worth going to see? 
All these detailed questions have been answered on our premium subscription service by clicking here! 

Regardless of the snow it will be freezing cold across Southern QLD and Northern NSW on Monday and Tuesday. In fact it could easily be one of the coldest Winter days experienced during the past 5 years. South Westerly winds will be gusting between 55 and 75kms hour. The wind chill factor will take up to 10C off the forecast maximums and remain in the single digits across Southern inland QLD and Northern inland NSW. The cold air mass will allow for widespread frosts to develop across both regions from Tuesday morning onwards.  

SNOW Possible In QLD Likely In Northern NSW!2019-06-01T16:13:19+10:00
30 05, 2019

Slamming SAM – More Freezing Conditions And Snow For Australia

2019-05-30T20:08:47+10:00


Issued 30th May 2019. Have you ever heard of the Southern Annular Mode also known as the Antarctic Oscillation? Well right now and for the next 2 weeks it is in full negative swing!  Brace yourselves for much more freezing, cold, windy weather and snow across South East Australia. The cold weather and frosts will also reach well into Queensland! Above image via Hotham Alpine Resort. 

Over the past week we have seen 2 big cold fronts across South Eastern Australia produce the best snow falls this early in the season in 19 years with up to 65cms across the Alps. We also had snow to low levels across Tasmania, Victoria, the ACT and Central Tablelands of NSW. It is not over yet, in fact its only just the start of much more to come during June. 

The negative phase of the SAM is associated with a northward shift in the belt of strong westerly winds. In autumn and winter, this can cause more Winter storms, low pressure systems, polar air masses, increased rainfall and snowfall for southern Australia. A SAM event can be identified by observing the pattern of westerly wind flow and pressure to the south of Australia. Over the past 2 weeks it has been steadily trending into negative values. Below image showing the current low pressures over SE Aust and the very strong negative SAM bulge of low pressure regions extending Northwards away from the South Pole. These regions move clockwise around the South Pole. 

 

The forecasting range for SAM is relatively short at only 2 weeks ahead. This is far enough to gauge a trending pattern beyond that so it can give an indication of values for about a month ahead. Currently models are suggesting that we will stay in a negative SAM for at least the next 2 weeks maybe longer. This will allow for an increase of deep low pressure systems to impact Australia. Below image showing the SAM / AAO past observations (black line) and 2 week forecast via CPC. Circled in blue is the negative anomalies. 


So what can we possibly expect? More strong cold fronts and upper cold lows, more snow, more rain, more strong winds with blizzards on the Alps, increasing frosts with some severe frosts and the list goes on. In general a big start to the snow season with snow reaching further north into NSW and possibly even Southern QLD. Average to possibly above average rain across South East SA, Tasmania and Victoria. Widespread frosts some severe across NSW and QLD with cold days. 

The next significant cold front is forecast to hit South East Australia from late this Sunday through until Tuesday. Damaging winds, rain, very cold conditions a big Alpine snow dump with snow extending further North into NSW is expected. That will be followed by frosts. Some places could be looking at 1 meter of snow depth by the first week June which is extraordinary. IF it continues long enough record breaking snow and record cold temperatures may occur. 

There will be short breaks in between the freezing weather when high pressure systems slowly move through however the deep lows and cold fronts will return in quick succession. We cover detailed snow forecasts and maps for VIC, ACT, NSW and QLD on our premium weather service here> https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/

Slamming SAM – More Freezing Conditions And Snow For Australia2019-05-30T20:08:47+10:00