Issued 15th November 2017. Widespread rain and storms are set to develop across most of Victoria, South East SA, New South Wales and the ACT from now until Saturday. A low pressure system is developing over South East South Australia on Wednesday afternoon producing rain and storms across the region. This low extends a trough to the North through Western NSW and Victoria. Over the next 3 days the system will develop further at it moves slowly East. Above image: Instability levels on Friday via GFS / BSCH.
On Wednesday night and Thursday the low is forecast to be located over Western Victoria producing rain areas with moderate to heavy falls possible. A severe weather warning for Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding is current for the Western third of Victoria.
Across the Eastern two thirds of NSW including the ACT scattered showers, rain areas and storms are also expected to develop during Thursday. Some of these storms may become severe with heavy rainfall.
Meanwhile rain and storms, some severe possible are forecast to develop across most remaining Central and Eastern parts of Victoria.
During Friday the low pressure system is expected to drift slightly West to be located close to the South Australian / Victorian border. Near this low scattered showers, rain areas and isolated storms are forecast across South East SA and Western Victoria.
The low continues to extend a trough to the North East across the Eastern half of Victoria, Eastern half of NSW and through the ACT. Scattered showers, rain areas and storms with some likely severe with heavy rain are likely across these regions.
The low pressure system weakens on Saturday but the surface trough remains in place across the Eastern half of Victoria, Eastern half of NSW including the ACT. Again, rain areas, scattered showers and storms are likely across these regions with some storms likely severe with heavy rain inland.
3 day rainfall totals of 25 to 50mm are forecast across the Eastern half of NSW and the ACT. 10 to 20mm forecast along the North East NSW coast and through the far west of the state.
10 to 20mm is forecast across the Eastern half of Victoria with a significantly higher amount of 50 to 100mm possible across the Western half of the state.
The South East corner of SA could also see falls of 25 to 50mm.
Detailed 24hr rainfall and thunderstorm risk maps across NSC, ACT & VIC are available through our premium membership service. Click here for more details and to subscribe ! Below image: 4 day rainfall forecast via BOM.
Issued 15th November 2017. Widespread showers, rain areas and SEVERE storms with heavy rain are set to make a return across the Southern half of Queensland later this week! After a really quiet period during the past week, a surface trough and upper trough will develop and intensify across Central and Southern districts from Friday onwards. Above rainfall forecast image via GFS / BSCH.
The heaviest rainfall looks very likely to occur across the Western Darling Downs, Warrego & Maranoa and Central Highlands districts. Severe storms with heavy rain leading to flash flooding are also very likely to develop across these districts on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Rainfall totals of 50 to 100mm are possible with some isolated higher falls.
The Central East and Coast, South East and Coastal districts from Rockhampton South to the Gold Coast are also expected to see scattered showers, rain areas and isolated storms develop on Saturday and Sunday.
Rainfall totals through these areas are forecast to be much lighter than inland though most locations should still pick up between 15 and 25mm.
Issued Monday 13th November 2017. Showers, storms and some rain areas are expected to develop across Western, Central and Southern Queensland districts this week. Some storms are likely to be SEVERE across the Southern inland from Friday to Sunday with Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding being the main threat.
A slow moving surface trough will lie through Western districts for the first half of the week before intensifying and moving East into Central and Southern inland districts from Friday.
Storm activity is initially forecast to remain West from about Julia Creek, Longreach to Charleville each day from Monday through until Thursday.
On Friday the trough gains strength and additional moisture levels across the Central West and Southern inland. Some storms will possibly be severe with heavy rain.
During the weekend the trough is forecast to continue to strengthen with increasing instability and moisture levels across Central inland and Southern inland parts of the state. This is likely to lead to scattered showers, scattered storms and possible rain areas. Storms will be more likely to become severe with Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding being the main threat.
Some storm activity may push through or even develop along the Central and South East Coast over the weekend but scattered showers look more likely at this stage.
Detailed rain and storm forecasts and maps available here > https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/
Issued 10/11/17. Large parts of Central Australia will fire up with widespread storms during the next 5 days due to a quasi-stationary broad surface trough. Above image: 4 day rainfall forecast total via BOM.
Most of the Northern Territory should see showers and storms each afternoon including Darwin and Alice Springs. Uluru has storms forecast for the next 7 days, it would be a spectacular sight for people visiting the area to witness a large storm rolling over the red rock.
Large parts of the Western Australia interior and also the Western half of South Australia are expected to see widespread storm activity. A low pressure system is forecast to eventually develop through South West Western Australia on Sunday which will also give Perth the chance of storms before moving East on Monday.
Any of these storms have the potential to be severe due to the very high heat levels mixing with high moisture levels. At the stage damaging winds and heavy rain are the main threats with isolated large hail possible.
Widespread rainfall of 10 to 20mm is forecast with isolated areas up to 50mm, much of this will highly depend on locations being directly under storm activity or not. With the potential remaining in place for 5 days most towns and properties are likely to pick up some rain.
Issued 9/11/17: After a very active period of thunderstorms across Central and Southern parts of Queensland conditions will be much more settled now for the next 7 days. A slow moving large high pressure system in the Tasman Sea will dominate much of the state for an extended period of time. Good news for those cleaning after severe storms caused extensive damage across parts of the state especially in Bundaberg. Above image: MSL pressure chart for Friday via GFS / BSCH.
Below average temperatures for November are forecast across the Eastern half of the state until mid next week. In the South East, conditions will be rather cool for this time of year with maximums between 20 to 25C. Minimums are likely to dip into the single digits across the Granite Belt.
Winds from the South East will tend fresh and gusty at times along the coast while tending slightly lighter East South Easterly over inland districts.
A surface trough will however trigger showers and storms through the Western and Northern inland parts of the state on Thursday and Friday this week before contracting further West out of the state on Saturday.
Onshore winds are likely to produce the chance of some showers along the coast each day for the next 7 days.
The next storm activity is expected to develop across Western and Southern inland parts of the state on Thursday and Friday next week. This is then forecast to shift East into Central and South East districts during next weekend.
UPDATED Monday 16th October at 11am. PLEASE READ VERY CAREFULLY!
“Worse case scenario” A very dangerous thunderstorm with extremely heavy rainfall up to 500mm has the “potential” to develop between about Seventeen Seventy, Bundaberg and the Sunshine Coast on Monday through to early Tuesday morning. (UPDATED: Brisbane has now been removed from the risk area). That also includes Miriam Vale, Hervey Bay, Fraser Island, Gympie and adjacent inland areas at risk. This type of storm could cause SEVERE flash flooding and place lives at risk. The current weather pattern along the South East Coast is producing “favorable” conditions for this type of storm to develop. Similar has happened in recent times to locations such as the Northern Gold Coast Hinterland, Caboolture, Sunshine Coast, Bundaberg and Rainbow Beach causing severe flooding. Above rainfall image UPDATED on Monday morning via BSCH.
The Global Forecast System computer model has continually forecast the dangerous storm to develop during the past 20 consecutive data sets! In other words it has held this forecast now for more than 4 days straight. GFS is known to be accurate with forecasting these types of “potential” weather events… It’s definitely not a guarantee it will happen though, however it is possible that it could occur. EC model is also showing the potential as well though a little further North than GFS with the focus more around the Fraser Island, Hervey Bay and Bundaberg regions. Other forecast models are also showing signs of the forecast potential.
Currently there is a surface trough along the South East and Fraser Coasts producing strong onshore winds with showers and rain areas. Models forecast this surface trough to greatly increase along the South East Coast during the next 24hrs with low level winds strengthening from the East. At the same time an area of Northerly winds develop in the mid to upper levels and this creates and area of increased uplift and turning with height. Warm moist air is fed in at high speed to a concentrated area causing a possible storm with very heavy rain to develop. The storm could then move slowly at first before becoming stationary over an area for a number of hours due to the combination of weather conditions.
HSC has successfully forecasted and warned these types of storm systems in the past so please don’t discredit us by saying we are full of shit or scare mongering ok! We are only passing on this potential as we are seeing it from computer model forecast data. “Best case scenario” it doesn’t develop at all or stays offshore.
If you live in these areas please keep a very close eye on current weather warnings and live updates during the next 24 to 48hrs. Being forewarned is forearmed. It may not happen but there is an elevated potential and risk it might!
Issued Oct 12th 2017. This forecast may change slightly and further updates will be issued.
Heavy rain with 3 day totals of between 100 and 200mm are “possible” across parts of South East Queensland during this weekend. At this stage the heaviest falls look more likely between about Brisbane and Bundaberg “closer” to the coast. Good 3 day rainfall totals of between 50 and 100mm are still forecast pretty much right across the South East Coast, Wide Bay and Burnett districts. Subscribe here to HSC for the latest high resolution SEQLD rainfall and storm forecast maps!
A surface trough along the South East Coast coast is expected to develop during Saturday with warm moist onshore winds feeding into an upper trough of cold air above. This generates widespread areas of unstable lift and as a result scattered showers, rain areas, isolated storms occur with moderate falls possible.
On Sunday the trough is forecast to strengthen further along the coast and we could even see a weak surface low develop near Fraser Island. This greatly increases the onshore flow feeding into the upper trough. In turn scattered showers and rain areas increase further with moderate to locally heavy falls more likely.
During Monday the possible low washes out but a deep trough with strong onshore flow remains across the region along with the upper trough. Scattered showers and rain areas likely to continue with moderate falls possible.
Note: Areas of heavy rain are highly dependent on where wind convergence areas develop but there is a risk right across both districts. These are very difficult to forecast more than 24hrs ahead due to their finicky nature because they move around a lot. Any heavy rain and flash flooding warnings for these systems normally come down to on the day itself when live radar and observations show immediate threat areas. Below image: Rainfall forecast totals via Pivotal Weather / CFS raw computer model data. Yellow = 100mm+, Red = 50 to 100mm.
Posted 8th October 2017 for the Australian cyclone season 1st of November 2017 to 30th of April 2018. Updated 1st November 2017.
UPDATE: A La Nina watch is current. A La Nina event has a 65% chance of developing by January 2018. Should this develop it may increase the risk of Tropical Lows and Tropical Cyclones across the Australian region between January to April.
This season we are predicting a total of 11 cyclones to develop in the Australian region which is typically near average. Due to slightly above average ocean sea surface temperatures surrounding Northern and Eastern Australia, there is a higher chance that more cyclones will become severe – Category 3 or higher. Almost 50%, or 5 of the forecast 11 cyclones are predicted to develop into a severe category 3+ system. This produces a higher risk of destructive impacts to coastal regions in Australia. Also up to 5 of the 11 predicted cyclones could potentially cross the Australian coastline.
• Eastern region: Queensland coast, Coral Sea and Gulf of Carpentaria. A total of 4 cyclones with 2 possibly severe (category 3 or higher). 2 of these systems potentially crossing the Queensland coast with 1 along the Gulf Coast and 1 along the East Coast.
• Northern region: Northern Territory Coast, Arafura Sea. A total of 2 cyclones with 1 possibly severe (category 3 or higher). 1 system potentially crossing the NT coast.
• Western region: Western Australia Coast, Timor Sea, Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and Indian Ocean. A total of 5 cyclones with 2 possibly severe (category 3 or higher). 2 of these systems potentially crossing the WA coast.
• Tropical Lows: Up to 20 tropical lows are also forecast to develop across the Australian region with many of them impacting the mainland. Tropical lows are one of Northern Australia’s biggest rainfall producers during the wet season. Occasionally they also end up tracking further South into Central and Southern Australian regions. They bring widespread heavy rain, flooding and sometimes damaging winds. Its not uncommon for tropical lows to bring rainfall totals of 250 to 500mm from just one system given their slow moving nature and very high moisture levels.
***Please keep in mind that it only takes 1 severe cyclone to cross the coast causing significant widespread damage! The biggest threats are very heavy rain causing major flooding, sea surge causing coastal inundation and destructive winds causing property and infrastructure damage. All of these weather threats are potentially life threatening! We will provide a high number of cyclone forecasts and updates if required this season… just as we did with TC Debbie last year.***
For detailed Tropical Cyclone forecasts including threat maps in QLD, NT & WA subscribe to our premium membership here!
2016 – 17 cyclone season review
• Eastern region QLD: Total number of cyclones 2 – Alfred and Debbie. Total number of coastal crossings 2 – Gulf and CQLD Coast. Total number of severe 1 – Debbie Cat 4.
• Northern region NT: Total number of cyclones 2 – Blanch and Frances. Total number of coastal crossings 1 – Tiwi Islands. Total number of severe 1 – Frances Cat 3.
• Western Region WA: Total number of cyclones 5 – Yvette, 22U, Caleb, Ernie, Greg. Total number of crossings 1 – Port Hedland. Total number of severe 1 – Ernie Cat 5.
• Tropical Lows: An Australian record number of 30 Tropical Lows were identified many which impacted Western Australia and the Northern Territory with heavy rainfall.
Issued Tuesday 12th September 2017. Large parts of Queensland is facing Very High – Severe fire dangers on Wednesday and Thursday as temperatures and winds increase. Above image: Fire dangers for Wednesday & Thursday via QRFS.
Strong North to North West winds will increase across the state on Wednesday ahead of a trough in the South West while pushing maximum temperatures above 30C through most districts. This combination will significantly elevate very high to severe fire dangers from the North West through Central and down into the South East and Southern inland districts.
There is a chance of some isolated gusty storms across the Southern inland on Wednesday afternoon however they will contain very little rainfall. Any storms that do develop pose an increased fire starting hazard due to lightning strikes.
Below image: HSC’s NEW 2017 QLD thunderstorm forecast map. We also have a NEW higher resolution South East QLD sector thunderstorm forecast map. Both are available by becoming a premium member HERE!
Early Thursday morning a strong South to South West wind change will have moved through Southern inland, Central West and North West districts. This strong wind change extends East during the day reaching South East and Central East districts. While the change will bring much cooler conditions with it, low humidity levels and high wind strengths will continue to maintain elevated fire dangers. Severe fire dangers are forecast across the South East Coast district (Brisbane, Ipswich, Sunshine Coast & Gold Coast). Very high fire dangers are forecast through the Southern inland, Central and Northern parts of the state. There is currently a very high fire vegetation fuel load across South East and Central East districts after the rain from TC Debbie earlier this year. Please remain vigilant as we enter bush fire season. Have a safety plan in place and if you see an unattended fire call 000.