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So far Jeff Higgins has created 135 blog entries.
12 09, 2017

QLD Facing Very High To Severe Fire Dangers As Temps & Winds Increase


Issued Tuesday 12th September 2017. Large parts of Queensland is facing Very High – Severe fire dangers on Wednesday and Thursday as temperatures and winds increase. Above image: Fire dangers for Wednesday & Thursday via QRFS.

Strong North to North West winds will increase across the state on Wednesday ahead of a trough in the South West while pushing maximum temperatures above 30C through most districts. This combination will significantly elevate very high to severe fire dangers from the North West through Central and down into the South East and Southern inland districts. 
There is a chance of some isolated gusty storms across the Southern inland on Wednesday afternoon however they will contain very little rainfall. Any storms that do develop pose an increased fire starting hazard due to lightning strikes.
Below image: HSC’s NEW 2017 QLD thunderstorm forecast map. We also have a NEW higher resolution South East QLD sector thunderstorm forecast map. Both are available by becoming a premium member HERE! 

qld-sep-13-storms

Early Thursday morning a strong South to South West wind change will have moved through Southern inland, Central West and North West districts. This strong wind change extends East during the day reaching South East and Central East districts. While the change will bring much cooler conditions with it, low humidity levels and high wind strengths will continue to maintain elevated fire dangers. Severe fire dangers are forecast across the South East Coast district (Brisbane, Ipswich, Sunshine Coast & Gold Coast). Very high fire dangers are forecast through the Southern inland, Central and Northern parts of the state. There is currently a very high fire vegetation fuel load across South East and Central East districts after the rain from TC Debbie earlier this year. Please remain vigilant as we enter bush fire season. Have a safety plan in place and if you see an unattended fire call 000. 


 

14 08, 2017

95% Of Queensland To Hit 30 – 35C By Wednesday!

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Issued 14th August 2017. The crazy weather is going to give Queensland a friendly reminder of what Summer was like this week with a Winter type heatwave! “Normally”, the August Winter maximum temperatures across Southern and South East QLD are between 18 – 23C but over the next 3 days the mercury will crack into the 30’s. If this is a precursor to what the coming Summer is going to be like it will be an absolute shocker.

In the South East, Toowoomba could be as high as 10C above average on Wednesday with a top of 28C forecast. Brisbane, Ipswich and Gympie all going for around 32C on Wednesday and Thursday though an afternoon sea breeze may just keep the river city closer to 30C if it kicks in early enough. Very strong Westerly winds with gusts up to 65 km/h are forecast to develop across the South East during Friday. These may also reach as high as 80 km/h along the ranges. 

Southern inland districts will roast up to 34C due to Northerly winds which turn strong North West to Westerly on Wednesday and Thursday.  High fire dangers are forecast through South East, Southern and Central inland which increase to SEVERE on Thursday across the Maranoa and Warrego. Below image: Fire danger ratings from Tuesday to Friday via QRFS. 

qldfiredangersaugust14to18th2017

Anywhere along the direct east coast of QLD this week will get up to between 28 and 30C with a nice cool afternoon sea breezes kicking in. 

All Central and Northern parts of the state will also be very warm to hot until Saturday before the cooler southerly winds arrive.

The Northern inland, North West, Central West and Gulf regions will be the hottest with 34 to 36C expected. 

By Saturday the run of high heat will come to an end across all Southern and Central districts as a much cooler South Westerly air mass pushes though from down South. 

There is absolutely no rain forecast across the state during the next 7 days and very little out to 14 days ahead. Yet another period of well above average temps are forecast across the state next week! 

10 08, 2017

All Of Queensland About To Get Hot For A Week Straight!

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Above image: Hot maximum temperature anomaly via Tropical Tidbits

Issued Thursday 10th August 2017. The entire state is about to come under a hot spell due to a week long Winter heatwave from Friday onwards. 95% of the state is forecast to hit 30 degrees plus with the remaining 5% along the exposed coastline over 25 degrees! If you think is been a warm Winter so far in Queensland you haven’t seen anything near like what is coming yet. 

The last major Winter heatwave of this magnitude across QLD was in late August 2009 when many daily and monthly records were smashed. That event has set the record bar very high however we are still looking at near record temperatures across parts of the state during next week. 

It all starts tomorrow (Friday) when a high pressure system builds over the state. This high becomes anchored for 7 days blocking any cold fronts from down South. It will result in fine sunny conditions across the state with light winds. Heat will slowly begin to build through the interior during the weekend. This heat will then spread east and continue to get hotter into next week reaching a peak on Wednesday and Thursday. Finally a cold front will push through Southern inland and Western districts next Thursday before spreading across the state next weekend bringing temperatures back to near normal. 

gfs-sfct_anom_c-au-2017080918-loop

So just how hot for the next week??? 5 to 10C above average with maximum temperatures between 30 and 35C across all inland areas of the state. The only inland temperature exceptions will be Toowoomba, Warwick between 24 and 29C and Stanthorpe between 22 to 26C, though, this is still 5 to 10C above their averages. Maximum temperatures of 25 to 29C expected along the exposed coast and what I mean by exposed coast is you can see the ocean!

 Minimum temperatures through the outlook period will remain a cool 10C or less across the Southern and Central inland with morning frosts becoming limited to the Granite Belt. This is due to clear nights, low humidity levels and light winds allowing the heat of the day to escape more easily.

Check out this run of daily max temps from Friday to next Thursday… 
Brisbane =  29, 29, 27, 27, 29, 30, 30. 
Ipswich = 29, 30, 28, 31, 33, 33.
Gympie = 28, 30, 29, 29, 30, 31, 31.
Gold & Sunshine Coasts = 27, 28, 26, 27, 27, 29, 29. 
Gatton = 29, 29, 29, 29, 31, 34, 34.
Toowoomba = 24, 24, 24, 24, 27, 29, 29. 
Bundaberg = 26, 27, 27, 28, 29, 28, 29. 
Gladstone = 25, 27, 27, 27, 28, 27, 28.
Rockhampton = 27, 28, 29, 30, 30, 31, 31. 
Mackay = 26, 26, 26, 27, 27, 27, 27. 
Townsville = 27, 28, 28, 28, 28, 28, 28. 
Cairns = 28 for next 7 days. 
Charleville = 29, 28, 29, 30, 33, 33, 33.
Longreach = 31, 31, 31, 32, 33, 34, 34.
Emerald = 28, 29, 30, 30, 32, 32, 32.
Mt Isa = 31, 32, 31, 31, 32, 33, 33.
Birdsville = 26, 28, 32, 33, 35, 34, 30. 

 

10 08, 2017

Brisbane Ekka Set To Sweat This Year With Max Temps To 31C!

For detailed forecasts and maps across QLD subscribe to HSC here! 

Issued Thursday 10th August 2017. The Brisbane Ekka is typically known for its cold August Westerly winds but not this year with well above average temperatures forecast! A high pressure system will become anchored over the South East this week and well into next week. This high blocks any cold fronts from pushing up from down South while producing fine sunny conditions with mostly light winds. Above image: Max Temps mid next week via BSCH. 

The opening days on Friday and Saturday will be fine and sunny with very warm maximum forecast temperatures of 29C. This is 7C above average for this time of year! On Sunday and Monday temperatures drop back a few degrees to 27C while remaining fine and sunny with light winds which will mean perfect conditions. 

Some cooler relief will come each day in the form of afternoon North East sea breezes which should kick in any time after about 1pm. Late afternoon and evening temperatures will still be around the 18 to 20C mark. 

Tuesday warms back up to 29C but Wednesday and Thursday next week look set to see a peak in the temperatures. Both days are going for a near record top of 31C which is massive 9C above average! It will actually feel hot during the middle of the day especially given its supposed to still be Winter.

Its hard to say if the afternoon sea breezes will make it in as far as the show grounds on Wednesday and Thursday but winds will be strengthening out of the North to North West ahead of a trough on Friday. Late afternoon and evening temperatures will be a warm 24C. Below image: Max temps up to 11C above average by mid next week via Tropical Tidbits. 

qldaboveaveragemaxtemps16thaugust2017

T shirts n shorts for the boys or crop tops n skirts for the girls will be the most popular dress standard at the show this year given the warmer conditions. Remember these temperatures are forecast for in the shade so don’t forget to slap on the sunscreen and wack on a hat as the UV or sunburn index will be high!  

From Friday through until Sunday next week during the last 3 days of the Ekka, temperatures are forecast to return to normal with around 22C expected at this stage. 
 

8 08, 2017

Queensland Facing Possible Winter Heatwave Next Week!


Issued Tuesday 8th August 2017. FORECAST DISCUSSION – Above average temperatures are likely across large parts this week with a possible Winter heatwave across 90% the state next week! Subscribe for detailed forecasts & maps across QLD here! 

LATER THIS WEEK: Maximum temperatures are forecast to get up to a very warm 7C above average with a top of 29C on parts of the South East Coast during Friday and Saturday. Above average temps are expected at all locations on the South East Coast during the weekend however they could climb into the low 30’s next week! Brisbane will be 28C on Friday and Saturday. 
Central and Northern districts are also expecting well above average temperatures later this week with tops between 28 – 32C. The Northern inland and North West areas run of very warm to hot days will continue non stop through the forecast period with temps between 30 – 34C.
The Darling Downs & Granite Belt will be the coolest district in the state but even for their standards it will be still very warm for this time of year. Max temps of 21 – 24C along the ranges and 24 – 27C on the plains. Exposed east coast regions while being a few degrees cooler will have an increase in humidity levels due to the light onshore winds.

NEXT WEEK: Current forecast data suggests that 90 % of the state from Monday through until Thursday next week could easily exceed August heatwave criteria of 5C to 10C above average for 4 days straight. The reason behind the potential high heat would be due to a large slow moving high pressure system anchored over the state with lack of any cold fronts from down south. The high produces light winds rotating anti clockwise around it across the state. The only places that are expected to be slightly cooler due to sea breezes are those located closely along the direct coastline, but humidity levels will be higher making it feel warmer anyway.

On Monday next week over 50% of the State (the western half) is forecast to exceed 30C. This then increases to 75% (inland areas) over 30C on Tuesday. A massive 90% of the state (all but exposed coastal areas) is forecast to be 30 – 35C on Wednesday and Thursday. Brisbane is forecast for 30c on Wednesday and Thursday! See below image.

qldmaxtempforecast16th17thaugust2017

 The entire state recorded above average mean maximum temperatures for July. 1 to 3c above average across the Eastern districts and 3 to 5c above average inland and the Western half. Looks like the trend is going to continue into August with a possible taste of Summer like conditions next week! Adding to this outlook is no rain forecast across the state for the next 8 days apart from a few light showers around Cairns. Below image is the long term average maximum temperatures for August via BOM.
julyavmaxtempsbomqldHSC QLD premium members already have above temperature forecast maps issued for this week. These will increase further to state heatwave maps if required for next week. 

7 08, 2017

Perth & South West WA To Get Hammered This Week!

Issued Monday 7th August 2017. After above average rainfall in July and waterspouts crossing the coast as tornados causing damage, Perth and South West WA are in for 2 more rounds of wild weather this week! Above image 7 day total rainfall forecast via GFS / BSCH. 

Significant rain is forecast across the South West again this week with widespread totals of 50 to 100mm possibly higher along the coast.

On Tuesday a trough will develop in the morning from Perth to Albany producing a band of scattered showers and rain. A strong cold front will then cross the coast South from Geraldton on Tuesday afternoon producing scattered showers, isolated storms and rain areas with moderate to locally heavy falls possible. Strong to possibly damaging winds of 60 – 80 km/h are also forecast with a slight chance of waterspouts crossing the coast as weak tornados. This trough pushes East across the South West land areas during Tuesday night to reach Esperance by early morning. 

A very cold cored upper low with vigorous South West wind flow then crosses the South West (Gelaldton to Albany) on Wednesday producing scattered showers, isolated storms with small hail and rain areas with moderate to locally heavy falls possible. Very strong to possibly damaging wind gusts to 90 km/h developing across the entire Southern half of the state during Wednesday with dust storms possible inland. Waterspouts crossing the coast as weak tornados are also an increased risk along the South West Coast.
Snow falls are likely on Bluff Knoll and the Mt Stirling Ranges during Wednesday and Wednesday night. Below image shows the -30C cold pool @ 18,000ft crossing the South West on Wednesday.

 swwacoldpool9thaugust2017southernwawinds9thaugust2017

Above image showing widespread damaging winds developing across the Southern half of the state late Wednesday. 

Conditions are expected to ease on Thursday. Widespread morning frosts developing on Thursday and Friday through the Central and Southern inland.

Another cold front stronger than the first one is forecast to hit the South West (Gelaldton to Albany) over night Friday into Saturday. Damaging to Destructive winds likely with an increased risk of waterspouts crossing the coast as tornados. Scattered showers and rain areas with moderate to locally heavy falls possible. Below image showing winds gusts on Saturday night via Windy.

swwacoldfront12thaugust2017
During Sunday the wet weather and strong winds are expected to continue across the South West. 

2 08, 2017

Up To 1 Metre Of Snow To Hit The Australian Alps This Week


Issued August 2nd 2017, checked and upgraded on August 4th. The biggest snow falls of the season are forecast to hit the Australian Alps this week! A massive 60 to 100cm of snow is forecast right across the Alpine region in just 4 days from Friday until Monday. This could mean a 50 to 100% increase on the base snow depth which has fallen so far all season. Above image via Windy. 

On Thursday a low pressure system will move across Victoria producing widespread rain and isolated storms across Southern NSW and Northern Victoria. This rain will fall as snow on the Alps above 1400m with the chance of thunder snow (storms producing snow). 10 to 20cm is expected to fall overnight into Friday morning. 9am August 4th snow report: 10 to 16cm has fallen across the Alps Thursday night.

Snow showers are expected to continue during Friday with an additional 10 to 15cm.

During Saturday the first strong cold front moves through increasing the snow falls with another solid 10 to 20cm forecast.

The Sunday cold front is set to be a real snow dumper with much colder air and higher moisture levels! Blizzard conditions are likely to develop across the Alpine region due to heavy snow falls and winds gusting from 90 to 110 km/hr. A whopping 25 to 50cm is forecast in 24hrs and we could see thunder snow. 

Maximum temperatures of -3C are forecast on the peaks during the weekend with a potential wind chill factor of -15c! 

Snow falls will continue on Monday though totals will ease back to 5 to 10cm. 

While it has been a slow start to the season with 97cm of base snow on the ground, this weeks forecast snow falls are likely to catch up to or surpass last years levels at this time. Below image: current base snow depth vrs 2016. 

Subscribe to HSC for access to detailed rain, snow and storm maps along with forecast alerts and live warnings! 

alpssnowbase2ndaugust2017

 

2 08, 2017

Central And North Queensland To Get Winter Rain This Weekend!

Issued 2nd August 2017. ***UPDATED*** 3rd August 2017 due to a big reduction in forecast rainfall totals across all models. Parts of Central and North Queensland are forecast to receive Winter Rain this weekend! Widespread falls of 10 to 25mm are expected between Rockhampton and Cairns with isolated totals to 50mm possible. The rain will also extend inland to Moranbah, Clermont and Georgetown. Above image via BSCH.

On Friday a surface trough will stall through the region producing a few showers during the afternoon.
During Saturday the trough increases in intensity drawing in warm moist winds off the Coral Sea while interacting with a cold upper trough. Scattered showers and isolated storms are expected North from Townsville to Georgetown into the South East Gulf region. Anywhere North of a line from Gympie to Mt Isa will see heavy cloud cover due to the upper trough. 

Sunday will be the wettest with widespread rain areas from about Cairns to Rockhampton including the ranges and adjacent inland. We should see 24hr rainfall totals up to 25mm from Sunday to Monday morning. This rain is not expected to reach as far inland as Emerald. Rain will reduce to showers along the coastal fringe during Monday. 

Maximum temperatures will be much cooler on Saturday due to cloud cover and especially on Sunday with the cloud and rain mix. North East and Central East districts are going to a top of 18-22C. Next to no rain has fallen from Townsville to Rockhampton during the past 9 weeks so it will be very welcome. 

Subscribe to HSC to gain access to detailed rainfall & storm forecast maps along with alerts & warnings across QLD! 


  

1 08, 2017

Big Winter Low To Hit South Australia Wednesday!


Issued 1st August 2017. A big Winter Low is forecast to run over the top of South Australia on Wednesday! The wild weather which hit Perth and South West WA on Monday is making it way across Southern WA towards South Australia. The first impacts are likely to be felt through SA’s Western districts on Tuesday afternoon and evening with strong gusty Northerly winds to 50 km/h turning stronger Westerly to 80 km/h. Due to the very dry conditions raised dust or dust storms will be possible. 

The low’s center is forecast to cross the coast near Ceduna on Wednesday while the front continues marching East across the rest of the state. Warm gusty North East winds will increase ahead of the trough and low before shifting much cooler South Westerly behind it. Scattered showers, rain areas and isolated storms with hail are likely across the Southern half of the state on Wednesday. This activity is expected to reach Adelaide and the South East quarter of the state during Wednesday evening while continuing early Thursday. 

 

Rainfall totals of at least 10 to 25mm should occur from this system along the Southern Coast and across the South East quarter with lighter falls up to 10mm through remaining inland parts. 

The low will then slowly move East during Thursday with scattered showers and rain areas early in the South East easing to isolated showers later in the day. 

A series of strong cold fronts are forecast from Friday to Sunday which will bring another round of scattered showers, rain areas, isolated storms with hail and strong winds to the Southern Coast and South East parts of the state including Adelaide across the weekend. 

sa6dayrain1staugust2017

By the end of the weekend, it is hoped that large parts of South East quarter and agricultural districts will pick up at least 25mm with isolated falls up to 50mm. Adelaide metro and Mt Lofty areas could end up with totals between 50 and 80mm. Unfortunately for the North West and North East pastoral districts very little rain is expected. Above image: 6 day rainfall forecast via Windy. Blue = 10 to 25mm, yellow = 25 to 50mm. 

28 07, 2017

South East Aust Hot n Cold, Windy & Possible Dust This Weekend


Issued 28/7/17. Well above average temperatures up to 31C, very strong winds up to 100 km/h, elevated fire dangers and possible dust storms will make for an unusual Winters day on Saturday across large parts of Southern Australia! Then on Sunday it will be the polar opposite… So a real mixed bag coming up this weekend! 

In South Australia on Saturday, Adelaide is heading for 21C which is 6C above average but have a look further inland… Renmark and Port Augusta 28C with Coober Pedy going for 31C which is up to 13C above average for July! These temperatures will drop by up to 12C on Sunday as the colder Westerlies return.
Victoria will also experience a very mild to warm Saturday with Melbourne’s 19C and Mildura’s 27C both well above average. Even Perisher on the Alps will reach positive 7c! Western NSW will experience very warm maximum temperatures of 28C.

gfs-sfct_anom_c-au-2017072718-loop

Above animation showing the above average temperatures shaded in red pushing East during the weekend. 

A notable impact will be the very strong to possibly gale forced North Westerly winds which will develop ahead of the trough on Saturday. All of South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and the Western half of NSW will have constant wind speeds of 40 to 60 km/h however wind gusts could reach as high as 85 km/h and even up to 100 km/h + on the mountains!
Dust storms or areas of raised dust are possible through inland South Australia, Western NSW and North West Victoria districts due to the strong winds. 
These winds combined with dry conditions and very warm temperatures will elevate bush fire dangers.

 

The surface trough with cold Westerly wind change will push North East across coastal districts of South Australia by 12 noon on Saturday and run from the North West to South East parts of the state. The trough will continuing moving East across Victoria and Tasmania during Saturday night before pushing through the Southern half of NSW on Sunday. Temperatures Across South East Australia will drop by 5 to 10C on Sunday. 

Only light rainfall totals up to 10mm is forecast from this weekends system across Southern SA, Victoria and Southern NSW. Tasmania is forecast to pick up the best falls with 25 to 50mm in the West and North tending much lighter through the South East. 

A more significant rain producing low pressure system will cross SA, VIC & NSW on Wednesday and Thursday next week. Further forecast details will be issued for this. 

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