Jeff

/Jeff Higgins

About Jeff Higgins

I have had a passion for weather since I was 8 years old. In 2011 I created Higgins Storm Chasing on Facebook which has now grown into a successful meteorology business.
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10 11, 2019

NSW Dangerous fire conditions forecast for Tuesday 12 November 2019

2019-11-10T11:21:47+10:00

Published Date: 10 Nov 2019 from NSW Rural Fire Service

 

Summary

Tuesday will be a dangerous day.

Based on the latest forecast, there is likely to be widespread Severe and Extreme fire danger. This is expected to stretch from the Queensland border to the south coast, and across the Central West.

There is already extensive fire activity across the north coast and northern NSW areas. These fires won’t be contained in time.

Under these conditions, these fires will spread quickly and will threaten homes and lives.

These conditions will be as bad, if not worse, than those experienced on Friday as they will be across a much broader area including large population centres like Sydney.

There are significant resources committed to fires and they are limited.

If you are threatened by fire, you may not get help.

Monitor conditions over the next few days. Use the time now to get ready.

Stay up to date on bush fires in your area and take responsibility for your own safety.

Important Links

NSW Dangerous fire conditions forecast for Tuesday 12 November 20192019-11-10T11:21:47+10:00
10 11, 2019

QLD Fire State of Emergency declared!

2019-11-10T11:12:35+10:00

Issued 9th November 2019 from Queensland Fire and Emergency Services

A State of Fire Emergency has been declared across 42 Local Government Areas in Queensland, following a period of significantly heightened fire weather conditions expected to continue into next week.

The State of Fire Emergency prohibits the lighting of all types of outdoor fires, and bans certain activities that can cause fires to ignite.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) Acting Commissioner Mike Wassing said fire crews were battling multiple blazes and all possible steps had to be taken to prevent further fires igniting.

“We’re experiencing tinder box-like conditions across much of the state and all it takes is one spark to start a fire that may burn for days,” Mr Wassing said.

“This declaration is vital to prevent bushfires breaking out and posing a danger to lives and property.”

Mr Wassing said the declaration overrode all existing permits to light fire and banned fireworks and the lighting of any outdoor cooking fires.

“The declaration also prohibits welding, grinding and the use of oxy acetylene cutting or heating outdoors,” he said.

“The use of the machinery and power tools in open areas has the potential to exacerbate the bushfire risk, which is why it is essential people do not use these tools outdoors.

“The declaration also gives QFES the authority to draw on private resources, such as plant and equipment, to assist in firefighting or preparation.”

Mr Wassing said substantial penalties could be issued to those who breached the declaration.

“The penalties for contravening this declaration are serious – a fine of up to $3,336 or two years imprisonment,” he said.

“Our crews are doing a fantastic job protecting lives and property, and we ask that Queenslanders continue to do their part to prevent fires starting and spreading.”

Mr Wassing urged Queenslanders to remain vigilant and continue to follow the advice of authorities.

“Everyone should have a bushfire survival plan and know what they are going to do if a fire approaches,” he said.

“People need to keep up-to-date on the QFES website and social media channels, and tune into local radio.

“It is important they follow the advice given and don’t leave it too late to evacuate if they need to.

“Bushfire prevention is a community effort, so it is essential people report fires and to Triple Zero (000) immediately.”

The declaration will be in effect until revoked.

Local Government Areas included in State of Fire Emergency:

QFES Region: LGAs Included: LGAs Not Included:
South Eastern
  • Gold Coast City
  • Ipswich City
  • Lockyer Valley Regional
  • Logan City
  • Scenic Rim Regional
  • Somerset Regional
 –
Brisbane
  • Brisbane City
  • Moreton Bay Regional
  • Redland City
 –
North Coast
  • Bundaberg Regional
  • Cherbourg Aboriginal Shire
  • Fraser Coast Regional
  • Gympie Regional
  • Noosa Shire
  • North Burnett Regional
  • South Burnett Regional
  • Sunshine Coast Regional
 –
South Western
  • Southern Downs Region
  • Goondiwindi Regional
  • Toowoomba Regional
  • Western Downs Regional
  • Balonne Shire
  • Paroo Shire
  • Bulloo Shire
  • Maranoa Regional
  • Murweh Shire
  • Quilpie Shire
  • Blackall Tambo Regional
Central
  • Banana Shire
  • Gladstone Regional
  • Rockhampton Regional
  • Central Highlands Regional
  • Woorabinda Aboriginal Shire
  • Livingstone Shire
  • Isaac Regional
  • Mackay Regional
  • Blackall Tambo Regional
  • Barcaldine Regional
  • Longreach Regional
  • Barcoo Shire
  • Winton Shire

     
Northern
  • Whitsunday Regional
  • Burdekin Shire
  • Townsville City
  • Hinchinbrook Shire
  • Charters Towers Regional
  • Flinders Shire

     
  • Richmond Shire
  • McKinlay Shire
  • Cloncurry Shire
  • Diamantina Shire
  • Boulia Shire
  • Mount Isa City
  • Burke Shire
  • Doomadgee Aboriginal Shire
  • Mornington Shire
  • Palm Island Aboriginal Shire
  • Carpentaria Shire
Far Northern
  • Cassowary Coast Regional
  • Tablelands Regional
  • Cairns Regional
  • Yarrabah Aboriginal Shire
  • Croydon Shire
  • Etheridge Shire
  • Carpentaria Shire
  • Mareeba Shire
  • Douglas Shire
  • Wujal Wujal Aboriginal Shire
  • Cook Shire
  • Kowanyama Aboriginal Shire
  • Pormpuraaw Aboriginal Shire
  • Hope Vale Aboriginal Shire
  • Aurukun Shire
  • Lockhart River Aboriginal Shire
  • Napranum Aboriginal Shire
  • Mapoon Aboriginal Shire
  • Northern Peninsula Area Regional
  • Torres Shire
  • Torres Straight Island
  • Weipa
QLD Fire State of Emergency declared!2019-11-10T11:12:35+10:00
29 10, 2019

The heaviest rain in 6 months forecast for parts of QLD

2019-10-29T11:35:54+10:00


Issued 29th Oct 19. It has been a very long time waiting for any decent rainfall across Central West & South West Queensland districts. Many locations have not had any more than 10mm in total over the past 5 to 7 months. Given the high confidence of forecast data and modelling that is all about to change over the next 3 days. Some places could see 50 – 100mm fall especially under storms though more widespread falls of 20-50mm are more likely!  If we don’t see a number of paddocks covered in water during this system we will be disappointed. Above image: 3 day ECMWF rainfall forecast totals from weatherzone.com.au

An upper level trough is developing across Western QLD during Tuesday causing light patchy rain areas to start with. This upper level feature is dragging in high amounts of moisture from the North West or the Tropics. A low pressure system is expected to develop from Tuesday afternoon over the South West of the state. This low will draw in high amounts of moisture off the Pacific Ocean into Central West and South West QLD. These 2 combinations will lead to increased showers, rain areas and isolated storms across the Central West, western Warrego and Maranoa and eastern Channel Country districts during Tuesday afternoon and night. 24 hr totals of 10-25mm are forecast with locally higher falls possible.

On Wednesday the entire system remains in place across Central West / South West QLD and doesn’t move… Further scattered showers, rain areas and increased storm activity is expected. Some of these storms may become severe and some locally heavy falls are possible. 24 hr totals of 10-20mm are forecast.

During Thursday the overall rain area weakens however thunderstorm activity increases. Some storms are likely to be severe with further heavy falls possible under storms. 

Here are some current projected 3 day rainfall totals for towns in the primary forecast area. Longreach 38mm, Barcaldine 42mm, Blackall 55mm, Tambo 30mm, Charleville 35mm, Bollon 20mm, Cunnamulla 20mm, Mitchell 20mm, Thargomindah 15mm, Windorah 20mm, Winton 10mm. The highest rainfall is currently forecast is for Quilpie, Adavale and Yaraka where 50-100mm is possible but any shift with the low and trough would result in less rainfall at these locations and higher amounts nearby. Another area with rainfall potential is Upper Western NSW where 5 – 20mm is possible depending on steering winds pulling activity further South. 

As you can see the system is reasonable wide spread across 3 days through Central West and South West QLD. This system has the potential to fill dams and tanks and put a run in local creeks and maybe even rivers. It WILL NOT break the drought but EVERY drop counts during these desperate times. 

We have issued our detailed accurate in-house daily rainfall and storm risk maps on our website which is available by clicking HERE! 

 

 

The heaviest rain in 6 months forecast for parts of QLD2019-10-29T11:35:54+10:00
25 10, 2019

Weather alert for NSW Saturday: Very strong winds, Dust & Severe fire dangers

2019-10-25T11:36:25+10:00


Issued 25th for Saturday 26th Oct 19. Nasty weather is forecast to impact most of New South Wales on Saturday thanks to a strong cold front. Strong to locally damaging West to South West winds with gusts up to 100km hour will blast across the entire state. This will likely lead to dusty conditions being generated across the Northern half of the state especially inland. Some of this dust may even reach the Central Coast. People in the dust forecast areas need to be mindful by taking necessary precautions during travel, while working outside and also having respiratory medication on hand. Above image: Wind gusts via Windy.com

Very warm maximum temperatures with low humidity levels will also combine with these strong winds across the North East quarter of the state. Very High to Severe fire dangers are expected across many districts but the highest fire risk areas look to be North from Sydney and East from Dubbo to Lightning Ridge. The fire dangers ratings will be issued by NSWRFS late on Friday for Saturday. People in these areas should have a bush fire survival plan in place and be ready for emergency fire warnings to be issued from the NSWRFS. These types of fire conditions are similar to the recent Rappville fire which claimed lives and took many homes. Below image: Maximum temperatures on Saturday.

The strongest winds of 80-100km hour are forecast across the Southern Ranges, the ACT, Southern, Central and Northern Tablelands, Illawarra, South East Coast and Hunter districts. People in these areas should prepare by securing loose items around the home and watch for fallen trees and power lines. 

Sadly very little rainfall from showers or storms is expected from the system. There could be some better showers and storms across the state from mid next week but we will have to wait and see what eventuates. In the meantime the situation remains very desperate and critical for rain. 

We provide rainfall and storm forecasts and maps across NSW, the ACT and Victoria, this includes our new North East quarter of NSW detailed zoomed maps. Become a Higgins subscriber HERE to gain access to our forecast services. 

 

Weather alert for NSW Saturday: Very strong winds, Dust & Severe fire dangers2019-10-25T11:36:25+10:00
15 10, 2019

Storms returning to South East & Central East QLD – some severe!

2019-10-15T12:34:00+10:00


Issued Tuesday 15th October for Thursday 17th October 2019. 

Hi everyone,
high instability levels are expected to lead to scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the South East and Central East QLD. Some storms are expected to be severe with large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall are more likely but not limited to the red circled area.
These are the highest instability levels observed so far this storm season and it is a timely reminder to ensure all precautions around the home and at work are carried out. Securing loose items such as trampolines from damaging winds is important to prevent them from becoming deadly projectiles.
A majority of storm damage is caused to cars by large hail. It’s important to note that while travelling to keep up with the latest severe storm warnings. On many occasions avoiding large hail is as simple as pulling over or delaying your travel for 15 minutes outside of a storms core.
Our thunderstorm risk maps for SEQLD & QLD have been issued on our website in the premium member forecast area. Login here!  Or subscribe here!

Trusted sponsor: For maximised TAX, BAS & GST returns with no fuss and great personalised customer service, give Aaron a call at Complete Tax & Financial Services in Brisbane >

Storms returning to South East & Central East QLD – some severe!2019-10-15T12:34:00+10:00
30 09, 2019

2019-20 Tropical Cyclone Outlook Australian Region

2019-09-30T14:00:41+10:00

Higgins Storm Chasing produces in-house high resolution, high accuracy Tropical Low / Tropical Cyclone forecast track and threat maps for all of Australia. Click here for more details… 

Key Points

• A forecast total of 10 cyclones in the Australian region which is near average. 5 of these cyclones being severe category 3 or higher. 5 systems potentially crossing the Australian coastline. 

• Eastern region: Queensland, Coral Sea and Gulf of Carpentaria. A total of 4 cyclones with 2 possibly severe (category 3 or higher). 2 of these systems potentially crossing the Queensland coast.

• Northern region: Northern Territory, Western Gulf of Carpentaria and Arafura Sea. A total of 2 cyclones with 1 possibly severe (category 3 or higher). 1 system potentially crossing the NT or Western Gulf coast.

• Western region: Western Australia, Timor Sea, Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and Indian Ocean. A total of 4 cyclones with 2 possibly severe (category 3 or higher). 2 of these systems potentially crossing the coast. 

• Tropical Lows: Up to 15 tropical lows are also forecast to develop across the Australian region with many of them impacting the mainland. Tropical lows are one of Northern Australia’s biggest rainfall producers during the wet season. Occasionally they also end up tracking further South into Central and Southern Australian regions. They bring widespread heavy rain, flooding and sometimes damaging winds. Its not uncommon for tropical lows to bring rainfall totals of 250-500mm even 1000mm+ just from one system given their slow moving nature and very high moisture levels. 

Forecast Notes
• The current ENSO climate driver in the Central Pacific Ocean is neutral (neither warmer or cooler than average sea surface temperatures).  Sea surface temperatures across the Western Pacific near the equator and also through the South West Pacific Islands is above average and forecast to continue to remain above average during this cyclone season. The Coral Sea waters are near average and forecast to stay near average this season. Given this scenario there is a higher potential for cyclones to develop in the far Northern and Eastern Coral Sea with increased chances of them being severe. Cyclones in these areas often track West to South West towards Queensland.

• The Northern Australian sea surface temperatures in the Gulf , between our mainland PNG and Indonesia are currently near average. These waters are forecast to climb to above average from January-April. Given this scenario there is a higher potential for cyclones to develop across Northern Australia in the new year. 

• A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole is current and expected to last until January.  This climate driver is currently Australia’s most primary dominant feature. It often brings below average rainfall and above average temperatures to much of Australia. Given this scenario a later than usual wet season start is expected with a delay of northern monsoon trough. The MJO eastward propagation also could be blocked while very limited cyclone development is expected across the Western region during October, November and December. Given the expected breakdown of the positive IOD in January a late season burst of cyclones is increasingly possible for the Western region.

• The Sudden Stratospheric Warming event over the South Pole has occurred and is now cooling quickly again. We do not believe it will have any impact at all on Australia’s climate during the next 6 months.

***Please keep in mind that it only takes 1 severe cyclone to cross the coast causing significant widespread damage! The biggest threats are very heavy rain causing major flooding, sea surge causing coastal inundation and destructive winds causing property and infrastructure damage. All of these weather threats are potentially life threatening! We will provide a high number of cyclone forecasts and updates if required this season. Given the current severe drought across many areas of Australia we need Ex Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Lows to track inland bringing widespread rainfall.*** Forecast map and text strictly not for news media use without express permission ***

Higgins Storm Chasing produces in-house high resolution, high accuracy Tropical Low / Tropical Cyclone forecast track and threat maps for all of Australia. Click here for more details or on the image below… 

2019-20 Tropical Cyclone Outlook Australian Region2019-09-30T14:00:41+10:00
23 09, 2019

NEW weather forecasts & maps for severely drought affected NENSW

2019-09-23T18:38:10+10:00

Issued 23rd September 2019. At Higgins Storm Chasing we have made a conscious decision to produce new in-house forecasts for the severely drought affected North East quarter of NSW. The new zoomed forecast covers an area from Newcastle north to Tweed Heads, west to Dubbo, Coonamble and Walgett including all “grey area” locations along the QLD & NSW border.
Above image: NENSW 24hr daily rainfall forecast map sample (low resolution). The new high resolution forecasts and maps have been activated as of today! 

There are 70 individual locations listed on our maps with 17 selected to include minimum and maximum temperature forecasts.

These new 24 hour rainfall, thunderstorm risk and snowfall maps will provide full daily forecasts up to 5 days ahead, a week ahead rainfall forecast total and month ahead rainfall total outlook. They will compliment our existing NSW, ACT and Victoria state forecasts and maps which also include a 3 month rainfall and temperature outlooks. Our 4 tier thunderstorm risk maps will provide an early warning preparation for severe and dangerous storm activity.

We believe our new product guidance will assist many farmers and graziers in these areas to make decisions while also providing everyone in the general public some hope in the search for any future rainfall.  
The water storage dams, rivers, creeks, potable water supply and the stock feed situation is at critical levels across this part of NSW. With storm season now just weeks away, we will provide accurate forecasts and up to date live information across the region while taking into extra consideration that “Every drop counts”.

The new forecasts will increase our work load by around an hour a day however there will be NO yearly subscription price increase to our existing or new premium members.

Existing members please login here and go to the NSW drop down forecast where you will find “NENSW forecast”. If you would like to gain access to our forecast and maps that cover QLD, SEQLD zoomed, NSW, ACT, Victoria and NENSW zoomed, Australia wide weekly rain and cyclones – please click here or on the image below to subscribe or for more information. 

NEW weather forecasts & maps for severely drought affected NENSW2019-09-23T18:38:10+10:00
23 09, 2019

Central Aust, Uluru, Alice Springs Rain and Storms

2019-09-23T16:48:22+10:00


Issued 23rd Sept 2019. Parts of Central Australia has been receiving rain and storms today with more to follow… It has been 4 months since Alice Springs recored more than 1mm of rain! Above image: Radar, Satellite and Lightning via Weatherzone.com.au

An upper level trough of cold air has made its way into the Centre of Australia from down south. This feature is causing widespread instability through the interior of WA just south of Fitzroy Crossing and Halls Creek while extending East into the Central West and South West of NT. Light rain has been falling for most of the day just West and South of Alice Springs. Scattered showers and storms have fired up across the Northern Interior of WA. 6mm was recorded to 9am this morning at Yuendumu to the North West of Alice Springs and 10mm at Ruby Downs just south of Halls Creek. While Alice Springs itself has only had a light shower so far, heavy cloud cover has produced a cool day with just 16C recorded so far. 

The system is forecast to move towards the East / South East on Monday night into Tuesday. Yulara and Uluru should see some overnight rain and maybe even a storm tonight then some light rain tomorrow. Alice Springs has rain forecast tomorrow with up to 10mm expected which is there entire average rainfall amount for September. Locally higher falls to 25mm are possible across the South West quarter of NT during Tuesday. Below image: 3 day rainfall forecast via Windy.com

By Wednesday the system will have weakened to nothing with no further rainfall expected for the next week. 

Central Aust, Uluru, Alice Springs Rain and Storms2019-09-23T16:48:22+10:00
16 09, 2019

Storms & Severe Fire Dangers for parts of SEQLD & NENSW

2019-09-16T17:39:08+10:00


Issued 16th Sept 2019. Tomorrow (Tuesday) is potentially a risk of severe weather across parts of South East QLD and North East NSW as a strong trough moves through. Above image: Wind gusts via Windy.com with weather risks highlighted by HSC. 

South East and Southern inland QLD: For areas across the Eastern Darling Downs, Granite Belt there is up to a 50% chance for some isolated high based showers and thunderstorms to develop. These showers and storm chances increase to around 70-90% across the South East Coast daily South of the Sunshine Coast though they should still remain isolated hit n miss. Any storms that develop will have a moderate risk of producing damaging winds over 90km hr due to very strong mid level winds being dragged down to the surface. If stronger storms do develop there is also a low to moderate risk of large hail between 2-4cms. Lightning will pose a bush fire starting risk. 
Maximum temperatures 29-33C are forecast with very low humidity levels. A strong North Westerly wind flow is expected across the Darling Downs and Granite Belt during the morning with a strong a gusty South West wind change developing during the afternoon. The combination of heat, low humidity and strong winds will cause SEVERE bush fire dangers. Winds East of the ranges will be moderate North West to North Easterly. 

North East and Northern inland NSW: For areas along and East of the ranges there is up to a 90% chance of scattered showers and storms developing between Port Macquarie and Lismore. Any storms that develop will have a moderate risk of producing damaging winds over 90km hr due to very strong mid level winds being dragged down to the surface. If stronger storms do develop, which is higher possibility due to higher moisture, a moderate risk of large hail between 2-4cms will exist. Lightning will also pose a bush fire starting risk. Very warm, dry and windy conditions will cause a very high fire danger across the Northern Slopes and New England districts. 

Lets hope that new fires don’t flare up again and that some people get some rain! Detailed in-house Higgins rainfall and thunderstorm risk maps are available for SEQLD and NENSW. Click here or on the image below for more information and to subscribe! 

Storms & Severe Fire Dangers for parts of SEQLD & NENSW2019-09-16T17:39:08+10:00
15 09, 2019

NSW rain, snow & storms early this week

2019-09-15T10:35:55+10:00


Issued 15th Sept 2019. New South Wales is in for a mixed weather bag early this week with rain, snow, storms and strong winds on the forecast! A cold front will move North across Southern districts on Monday before developing into a Low across Central East districts on Tuesday. The low is expected to briefly intensify just off the NSW coast on Tuesday night. Above image: rainfall via Windy.com

RAIN:
The heaviest falls of 50-100mm are forecast along the coast from Newcastle, Gosford,  Sydney, Wollongong, to Ulladulla between Monday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. 10-25mm is forecast through Central inland parts of NSW with lighter falls of 5-10mm across Southern inland areas.

STORMS:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the North East quarter of the state on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could be severe with damaging winds due to strong in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Those areas directly under storm activity could receive up to 20mm of rain. 

SNOW:
5-10cms of snow is likely across the Alps on Monday night and Tuesday morning. Model data is continually suggesting possible heavier snow falls of 7-15cms across higher elevations on the Southern and Central Tablelands of NSW during Monday night and Tuesday morning. This snow is highly subject to low level temperatures remaining cold enough… given the current data it could easily fall as rain and sleet instead of snow but it will be interesting to see what happens! 

WINDS & TEMPERATURES:
Maximum temperatures will be well above average across the Northern 2/3rds of NSW on Monday before the arrival of the cold front. Northern districts will see maximum temperatures of 30-34C. On Tuesday an 8-12C temperature drop will push across all districts accept the far North East. The Central Tablelands will see max temps of just 6-10C on Tuesday with most of the state struggling to reach 20C. 
On Monday winds will be very warm from the North West across the Northern half of the state while the Southern half will have much cooler Southerlies developing. During Tuesday coastal districts South from Newcastle will see South East winds become very gusty as the low develops. Central inland will experience strong South East winds as well while Northern inland areas are expected to see strong South West winds. These strong South West winds may kick up areas of dust on Tuesday afternoon.

Detailed Higgins in-house rain, storm and snow maps are available to premium members. Find out more or subscribe HERE or by clicking on the image below! 

NSW rain, snow & storms early this week2019-09-15T10:35:55+10:00