Jeff

/Jeff Higgins

About Jeff Higgins

I have had a passion for weather since I was 8 years old. In 2011 I created Higgins Storm Chasing on Facebook which has now grown into a successful meteorology business.
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15 05, 2019

EC TC Ann Crosses QLD Coast At Lockhart River

2019-05-15T14:25:35+10:00

Issued 15th May 2019.

A tropical low developed near the Solomon Islands on the 9th of May and tracked South West across the Coral Sea into a favourable environment for cyclone development.

The out of season cyclone Ann developed in the Northern Coral Sea on the 12th of May. It was the latest a cyclone has developed in the Coral Sea since TC Pierre on the 16th May 2007.

TC Ann intensified further against global forecasts become a category 2 for around 12hrs early on May 13th. She also became the strongest cyclone to develop in the Coral Sea this late in May in 26 years. The system continued to track West across the Coral Sea towards North QLD. Below image of when TC Ann peaked at category 2. 

 

During the day an upper trough impacted the system with much cooer Southerly surface winds and much drier low to mid level moisture which caused a rapid weakening back to a category 1. 

On May 14th the cyclone was downgraded to an EX TC or Tropical Low. The strong convection had dissipated largely due to dry air intrusion leaving a low level circulation centre. EX TC Ann continued to be steered towards North QLD under the influence of a sub tropical ridge to the South. 

EX TC Ann crossed the Peninsula Coast at Lockhart River at 12noon the 15th of May 2019. The strongest wind gust of 89kms hr was recorded 500kms South of the system at Arlington Reef offshore from Cairns. The system had tracked closer to Willis Island 400kms East of Cairns where a wind gust of 85kms hr was felt. 

At Lockhart River the pressure dropped from 1010hpa to 1006hpa within a few hours. Wind gusts went from S at 33kms hr to NE at 48kms hr within 1 hour. Only 6mm of rain has been recorded.
Cooktown has recorded 60mm in 30hrs due to a trough and convergence rain area on the Southern side of the low. 

Thunderstorms are developing between Weipa and Lockhart River as the system moves West. 

EX TC Ann will continue to track West during Wednesday and Thursday across the Gulf of Carpentaria reaching the Western Gulf near Nhulunbuy on Thursday afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms some with moderate to heavy rain are expected across the far Northern NT during Thursday night and Friday. 

The BOM had issued cyclone watch and warning for parts of the North QLD Coast but downgraded the warnings to a severe weather warning. They are still calling for heavy rain to 150mm in 6 hrs and damaging winds to 90km hr but we are yet to see any of this occur. Below image: Observations when EX TC Ann passed over Lockhart via BOM. 

EC TC Ann Crosses QLD Coast At Lockhart River2019-05-15T14:25:35+10:00
7 05, 2019

Snow Rain And Cold For SE AUST

2019-05-07T18:34:21+10:00


Issued 7th May 2019. A very strong cold front and low pressure system will bring widespread rain across Victoria with snow on the Alps this week. Scattered showers falling as snow expected across the Brindabella Ranges in the ACT and possibly even the Central Tablelands of NSW. Above image: Very cold airmass at 500mb via GFS/BSCH on Friday morning. The system is also expected to bring follow up rain to SA HERE.

It will be the first of many systems to sweep across South East Australia during the next 3 months but having early snow falls attached makes it exciting…

On Thursday a very strong cold front moves into Western Victoria with a band of scattered showers and rain. Some isolated storms can’t be ruled out. The front continues to marching East reaching Central districts during the afternoon and evening. Rain is expected to turn to snow on the Alps during Thursday night where 5 to 10cms are possible. Very strong West to South West winds could easily kick up dust across Western NSW and Western Victoria. 

During Friday the upper low of very cold air moves North East across Central and Eastern Victoria, Southern and Central NSW. Meanwhile a surface low is expected to be located to the North East of Tasmania. These features will combine to produce scattered showers across Central Victoria with hail tending to rain areas through Eastern districts. The scattered showers will fall as snow across the Alps above 1000 meters with 10cms expected. Cold Westerly winds are expected with top temps across Victoria between 10-14C and near zero on the Alps. 

In the ACT in will be cold with some showers forecast which should fall as snow on the Brindabella Ranges above 1100 meters where a few cms are possible. 

Across NSW cold South West to Westerly winds will extend across all of the state apart from the far North East. Showers are expected across the Central and Southern inland. Snow is possible on the Central Tablelands above 1100 meters which could include Orange, Bathurst but more likely the higher areas such as Oberon, Crookwell and Jenolan Caves. Below image: Snow forecast via ECMWF and Windy. 

Good rain is forecast across large parts of Victoria from the system which should deliver about 15-30mm across Western, Southern and Central districts. 10 to 20mm of follow up rain is possible across Eastern districts but there is some uncertainty with these totals depending on exact position of the surface low on Friday. Below image: ECMWF rainfall forecast totals via Weatherzone. 

Snow Rain And Cold For SE AUST2019-05-07T18:34:21+10:00
5 05, 2019

Follow Up Rain For SA And Adelaide

2019-05-05T17:39:22+10:00

Issued 5th May 2019: Good follow up rain is forecast for South East South Australia including Adelaide this week. Above image: ECMWF rainfall accumulation forecast totals via Weatherzone.

A cold front and South West wind change will move across the state on Tuesday producing a band of showers and rain areas through the South East quarter. 5 to 10mm is forecast from this first system. 

A strong upper low and significant cold front with very strong West to South West winds will move across the state on Thursday. Southern and South East districts are expecting rain, showers with hail and possible storms with widespread 15 to 30mm of rain forecast on Thursday.

Maximum temperatures will drop into the low teens across the South East quarter of the state on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Further strong winds and showers are expected some with hail across the South East on Friday with around 5mm expected.

Fine conditions returning on Saturday and Sunday. Below image: Very strong upper low and cold pool of air at 500mb on Thursday via BSCH. 

Follow Up Rain For SA And Adelaide2019-05-05T17:39:22+10:00
21 04, 2019

Showers, Rain And Storms – Some SEVERE Across QLD This Week!

2019-04-21T21:10:27+10:00


Issued at 8:30pm 21st April 2019. The South West quarter and Central inland Queensland districts will see some good rain and storm activity early this week. Coastal districts are also likely to see further showers developing. Above image: Accumulated rainfall forecast via weatherzone.com.au

A strong upper low with cold pool of air is forecast to enter South West districts on Monday generating instability. The system will interact with a large high in the Tasman Sea which will provide a good feed of moisture.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms (some severe with heavy rainfall) are expected to develop across Eastern Channel Country, Western Warrego and Maranoa and Central West districts on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight rain areas will also be possible along with some severe storms containing heavy rainfall. Falls of 20 to 40mm are forecast with possible isolated falls of 50 to 100mm under heavy storms (red circled area). The system will weaken on Wednesday and head East with stable conditions returning inland on Thursday.

The high in the Tasman Sea will continue to provide an onshore flow causing scattered showers along much of the QLD coast for the first half of the week. Most coastal districts should see around 10mm however the local hotspots across the North Tropical Coast, Central Coast and Sunshine Coast could see higher local falls. As the upper system clears offshore on Thursday showers will ease along the coast. 

Detailed QLD / SEQLD daily state rainfall and thunderstorm forecasts available on our website HERE! 

 

Showers, Rain And Storms – Some SEVERE Across QLD This Week!2019-04-21T21:10:27+10:00
29 03, 2019

A huge band of rain and storms for QLD and NSW

2019-03-29T11:46:12+10:00

Issued 29th March 2019. A significant cold front, surface and upper trough will move East across QLD and NSW during the next 2 to 3 days producing a large band of rain and storms. Above image: 3 day rainfall forecast totals via Windy.com

This might be the one of last big rain and storm systems for this season. While Victoria is forecast for snow down to 1000 meters, the cold front will also tap into a vast amounts of moisture and remaining heat through QLD and NSW. While a few people could miss out on the rain, forecasts suggest that a majority won’t. Given the recent results from Ex TC Trevor that were focused through Central inland parts of QLD, this next system should fill in the blanks further South and East. 

Widespread 15 to 30mm is expected through the Eastern 2/3rds of NSW and Eastern 2/3rds of QLD during the next 3 days. Some higher rainfall totals are very likely under heavier storms and rain areas. 

QUEENSLAND: The front will fire up a line of storms from Friday afternoon from the QLD Gulf down through the Central West down into Southern inland districts. This could spread to overnight rain and thunder through Central and and Southern inland districts.  On Saturday the band pushes East into the South East inland, South East Coast, Central inland, Central East and Northern Tropics. Some storms are likely to become severe with heavy rainfall and damaging winds. Hail can’t be ruled out due to cold air aloft.  On Sunday a much drier cooler airmass spreads across Western, Southern and Central parts with remaining rain and storms focused over the Northern Tropics. 

NEW SOUTH WALES: During Friday, a front is expected to fire up some storms across Northern VIC and Southern Inland NSW. These could spread into South East areas as well as loosely covering Northern and Central Inland areas later in the day. Overnight, storms should turn to rain areas and spread East across Northern and Central NSW, clearing the Southern Coast. During Saturday, activity should clear the Central Coast with further storms firing up across North East areas during the late morning and early afternoon before clearing the Norther Rivers during the early to mid afternoon. Widespread good falls are expected across Eastern NSW during the 2 days. Snow is also likely across the Alpine regions of VIC and NSW. During Sunday, its expected to be a cold start to the day across a large portion of NSW, especially along the Ranges, before mostly fine conditions take over.

Detailed rainfall and thunderstorm forecast maps are available for SEQLD, QLD, NSW, ACT & VIC through our Premium Service HERE! 

A huge band of rain and storms for QLD and NSW2019-03-29T11:46:12+10:00
12 03, 2019

Severe storms set to lash parts of QLD & NSW this week

2019-03-12T14:24:42+10:00

Issued on the 12th of March 2019. While numerous severe storms with heavy rain, large hail and damaging winds will be likely, RAIN is the utmost importance part of this forecast scenario! Above image: next 5 day rainfall forecast totals via Windy.com

A series of upper troughs with cold mid to upper level air are forecast to move across parts of NSW and QLD this week. We may even see an upper low develop across Northern NSW on Friday and Saturday enhancing rain and storm activity further across Northern NSW and QLD. 

It doesn’t matter how much moisture there is you need a trigger such as a surface trough or upper trough to cause rain and storms. It looks like we finally have both this week!

Storm activity is expected to start late this afternoon with possibly severe storms from Gympie up into the Central inland and across to Rockhampton. There is a slight chance through the South East Coast. 

Wednesday: Again storms are likely to be focused from about the Sunshine Coast to Rockhampton and back through Central inland districts. Some storms will possibly be severe.

Thursday: Instability and moisture greatly increases through South East and Central East QLD. Numerous severe storms are likely along with the potential for heavy rainfall across the South East corner of QLD into Thursday night. 

Friday, Saturday and Sunday: Instability remains high through South East and Central inland QLD while spreading further west in Southern inland districts. Severe storm activity is likely during the 3 days. 

So for QLD, rainfall amounts and storms will tend more isolated on Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing significantly from Thursday to Sunday at this stage. Widespread falls up to 25mm across most areas South from about Rockhampton and East from Longreach, Charleville to St George. Isolated higher falls to 100mm are very possible due to repeat storms through South East and Central inland QLD. 

In NSW, storm activity is expected to begin on Thursday through most Eastern districts before contracting to the North East and Northern inland from Friday to Sunday. Numerous severe storms are also likely. Widespread totals of 20 to 40mm forecast through Eastern NSW for the rest of the week. Isolated higher falls to 100mm very possible through the North East under repeating storms. 

Detailed and accurate daily rainfall and storm threat maps are available for QLD, SEQLD and NSW on our website HERE> https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membership/
Existing HSC premium members please login HERE> https://higginsstormchasing.com/login/

Severe storms set to lash parts of QLD & NSW this week2019-03-12T14:24:42+10:00
4 03, 2019

Low and Trough to bring showers and storms to Eastern QLD this week

2019-03-04T11:19:04+10:00

Issued 4th March 2019: Showers, Rain & Storms increasing through Eastern QLD this week. Some storms likely severe with heavy rainfall. Above image via Weatherzone.com.au
A small low pressure system is forecast to track South West across the Coral Sea to near the Central QLD coast by Wednesday. (Red circle and track arrow).
A surface trough extending South from the low currently located off the QLD coast is forecast to shift West to be positioned along the coast early Tuesday morning. (Yellow line and track arrows).

Forecast for Monday: Scattered showers along the East coast tending more frequent and rain at times around the Sunshine Coast.

Forecast for Tuesday: Scattered showers and isolated storms increasing in the morning through the Wide Bay & Burnett, Fraser Coast including Fraser Island. This activity is expected to develop further north during the afternoon to also include the Capricornia, Central Coast & Whitsundays, Herbert & Lower Burdekin districts. Locally moderate to heavy falls possible under storms with some storms possibly severe with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. Showers again likely along the South East Coast into NENSW.

Forecast for Wednesday: Scattered showers and storms likely along most of the East QLD coast between Cairns and Brisbane. Some storms likely to be severe with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. Isolated showers and storms may also spread or develop further inland through the Darling Downs, Central Highlands & Coalfields districts.

The forecast for Thursday: At this stage is very similar to Wednesday with scattered showers and storms some likely severe with heavy rainfall through Eastern QLD. A strong gusty South East change is expected to move North through the South East QLD coast during the day. This change may increase thunderstorm activity through South East QLD depending on exact timing through various locations.

***Not for media use without permission***

Low and Trough to bring showers and storms to Eastern QLD this week2019-03-04T11:19:04+10:00
26 02, 2019

An Apology From Higgins Storm Chasing

2019-02-26T22:53:58+10:00

On the 26th February, 2019 an article was published by the Courier Mail and other media about Higgins Storm Chasing and comments we have recently made.

We wish to make clear that we were never forced to offer an apology, despite headlines stating this as fact.

On Sunday 24th February, I proactively contacted a person who I made abusive and threatening remarks to and have apologised for my actions. My apology was welcomed with return apologies for their original provoking post.

I wish to offer an unreserved apology to anyone who has been affected or offended by my or other administrator’s comments or private messages.  The language we have used is unacceptable and should never be used either publicly or privately.

We are working on ways to better handle the stresses of supporting our business and our admins are being taught better coping skills to deal with the abuse that we sometimes receive

Regardless of these stresses, this is no excuse to treat others with disrespect.

I and my team are implementing better procedures to cope with the increased pressures of social media and the demands often placed on us.

I am very appreciative of the support we do receive, and I wish to thank everyone who supports our work and passion for weather.

We wish to welcome open and intelligent debate on our posts.  Those who wish to share different views are welcome to do so, however we ask that they are done with respect to us and others.

I and my team are looking forward to providing a better service to our customers and greater public.

Thank you,
Jeff Higgins
Higgins Storm Chasing

An Apology From Higgins Storm Chasing2019-02-26T22:53:58+10:00
4 02, 2019

Central Coast and Whitsundays up to 1 meter of rain now forecast!

2019-02-04T17:46:24+10:00

Issued 4th February 2019. HEADS UP Central Coast and Whitsundays from Sarina to Bowen including Mackay, Proserpine and Arlie Beach. The monsoon trough which has flooded Townsville during the past week is now forecast to shift South. Heavy Rainfall and Flooding a high risk. Above image via Windy.com next 3 to 5 day rainfall totals. 

A tropical low is currently located over North West QLD with a strong monsoonal wind flow extending down the NQLD coast. The monsoon trough which has been anchored over Townsville for many days has now finally shifted. Unfortunately this will mean other locations will now likely experience heavy rainfall with a high risk of flooding.

During Monday afternoon the main convergence zone is located on the Central Coast very close to Mackay. The heaviest rainfall since 9am to 5pm was at Sandy Plateau with 75mm. While the rain has finally eased in Townsville with 15mm, it has now started in Mackay and Proserpine with 15 to 30mm recorded. This will be a tame start of things to come… 

On Tuesday the tropical low is expected to remain stationary in North West QLD while the monsoon trough gains intensity from the Whitsundays to Mackay. Heavy rainfall is very likely to develop along with strong winds which may reach damaging strength of 90kmhr along the Central Coast. 24 hour rainfall totals of 100 to 200mm possible with locally high falls to 350mm. Some very intense heavy rain areas and severe thunderstorms may also develop producing severe and dangerous flash flooding. The Central Coast region is saturated from recent rainfall so it generally won’t take as much rainfall to causing flooding. Below image: Monsoon trough via Windy.com

During Wednesday the forecast is expected to be near exactly the same as Tuesday. On Thursday and Friday the tropical low could finally move East out of North West QLD into North East districts. This is likely to contract the monsoon trough back towards the North but deep onshore winds will maintain rain through the Central Coast and Whitsundays. 

3 to 5 day current rainfall accumulation totals are forecast to be between 500 to 1000mm from Proserpine to Sarina. Inland areas such as Moranbah, Collinsville and Bowen are currently expecting 150 to 300mm. 

Flash flooding will be a high risk, River Flooding is likely with strong to damaging winds for the next 3 to 5 days along the CQLD coast. Please watch our LIVE VIDEO update and forecast on Facebook tonight (Monday) at 7:30pm QLD time which will also cover Townsville to Mackay.  

Detailed, accurate HSC forecasts and maps for Queensland available via our Premium Membership HERE! 

 

 

 

Central Coast and Whitsundays up to 1 meter of rain now forecast!2019-02-04T17:46:24+10:00
30 01, 2019

Ross River Dam Townsville To Reach 100% Today!

2019-01-30T10:58:56+10:00

Issued 30th January 2019. With heavy rainfall continuing across the catchment, Townsville’s Ross River Dam is expected to reach 100% storage capacity later today. Above image sourced. Townsville’s detailed heavy rain forecast for today is available HERE! 

Just 2 days ago the level was down to 64% but over the past 24hrs that has risen by 20%. At 7am this morning the dam was at 89.8% or 38.10m.

Now at 10:30am further fast rises up to 38.35m which is about 95% have occurred. The 100% gated spillway level is 38.55m so there is just 24cm to go until 100% full supply is reached.

By 3pm this afternoon based off current inflows, Ross River Dam will likely be at 100%. The reservoir has a current capacity of 233,187 megalitres of water and can hold up to 803,565 megalitres of water in flood mitigation. Below image via BOM at 10am Jan 30th 2019.

Further heavy rainfall is expected for the next week across the region with flash flooding and river flooding likely to continue. We may see many if not all of the rivers and creeks across the Townsville region reach MODERATE to MAJOR flooding. LATEST BLOG FORECAST HERE! 

Currently the Haughton R at Giru and Mt Piccaninny is at Major flood level and rising. The Bohle R at Hervey Range Rd is at moderate flood level and rising. Subscribe to HSC here for detailed forecasts and maps for Townsville! 

Ross River Dam Townsville To Reach 100% Today!2019-01-30T10:58:56+10:00