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So far Jeff Higgins has created 104 blog entries.
20 04, 2017

Good rain forecast for parts of SA, NSW & Victoria during the next 48 hours

Parts of the Red Center have recorded some very healthy rain during the past few days from a weather system which is now heading towards South East Australia. Totals so far from inland WA, SA and NT include Kintore 69mm, Yulara / Uluru 53mm, Giles 38mm, Warburton 35mm, Ernabella 30mm and Curtail Springs 20mm. An upper level cold low moving North East is about to ramp up activity through Central and South East South Australia, Victoria and South West – Southern inland NSW. Above image via Weatherzone. 

At midday on Thursday a surface trough drawing in high moisture is located through Central and South East South Australia with an upper level low heading North East towards Adelaide from the Bight. The combination of these two system is already producing areas of rain across South East SA, Western Victoria and South West NSW. This rain activity is forecast to increase in intensity during Thursday afternoon and night especially through Western Victoria and South West NSW as the system moves East. The following HSC premium member rain alerts have been issued for Thursday.

SOUTH AUST THURSDAY 20/4/17 – NORTH WEST, CENTRAL & SOUTH EAST FOR POSSIBLE AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL 25 TO 50MM SOME STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE.
NSW THURSDAY 20/4/17 – LOWER WESTERN DISTRICT FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 25 TO 50MM DEVELOPING LATE.
VICTORIA THURSDAY 20/4/17 – MALLEE, WIMMERA, AND WESTERN DISTRICTS FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 25 TO 50MM DEVELOPING LATE.

During Friday a surface low and strong surface trough drawing in high moisture from the North is forecast to be located through Western and Central Victoria including Melbourne while extending North West into Southern inland NSW. The upper low will be overhead providing added instability. These two systems are forecast to produce scattered showers, rain areas and isolated storms with moderate to locally heavy falls likely. The following HSC premium member rain alerts have been issued for Friday.

VICTORIA FRIDAY 21/4/17 – MELBOURNE METRO, CENTRAL, N CENTRAL, NORTHERN, MALLEE, WIMMERA, NORTH EAST, WEST & SOUTH GIPPSLAND DISTRICTS FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 25 TO 50MM.
NSW FRIDAY 21/4/17 LOWER WESTERN AND RIVERINA DISTRICTS FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 25 TO 50MM.

bomrainfall20to23april2017Above image: 4 day rainfall forecast via BOM

For detailed forecasts and alerts across NSW / ACT & VIC including severe weather forecasts and alerts across SA become a premium member HERE! 

23 03, 2017

Tropical low or cyclone to hit North Queensland

Issue 2 on Thursday March 23rd 2017. PLEASE READ!!! A low pressure system 1005hpa is located 750km North East of Cairns while intensifying. This low has a very high chance of further developing into a tropical low in the Coral Sea off the North Queensland coast during Thursday and Friday. The tropical low is very likely to move in a South Westerly direction towards the North Queensland coast while intensifying. During Saturday there is a 50% moderate risk and on Sunday a 75% high risk chance for the system to further develop into a tropical cyclone. Above image via Weatherzone

Important forecast note: A world leading high resolution computer model suggests the potential cyclone may undergo a period of rapid intensification during Sunday and early Monday just prior to possible landfall. This rapid intensificaion would be due to the system encountering a very faverable environment of 30 degree sea surface temperatures and very low vertical wind shear. Given this forecast data scenario, a severe category 3 cyclone with VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts between 165km hr and 224km hr would be possible. 

There is still some uncertainty though with all global forecast data sets on the exact strength, timing and crossing of the system. People along the North Queensland Coast between Cairns and Mackay including the adjacent inland at this stage should closely monitor further forecasts and updates. 

Our forecast confidence is extremely high (90%) for a minimum of tropical low development and coastal crossing in North Queensland with strong winds, heavy rain and possible flooding. This heavy rain and possible flooding would also extend through Northern inland parts early next week. We have produced our second premium member forecast release with high resolution detailed tropical low / cyclone forecast track maps and threats for Queensland. Existing HSC premium members please login here to view daily forecasts and maps. Further daily updates will be issued which will greatly increase if a cyclone develops. 

Our high resolution cyclone forecasts, maps and email alerts are available by becoming a HSC premium member by clicking HERE!  

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22 03, 2017

Tropical Low alert possible cyclone for QLD

Issue 1 on Wednesday March 22nd 2017. PLEASE READ!!! A tropical low has a very high chance developing in the Coral Sea off the North Queensland coast during Thursday and Friday. This tropical low is likely to move in a South Westerly direction towards the North Queensland coast while intensifying. During Saturday and Sunday there is a 50% moderate risk to 75% high risk chance for the system to further develop into a tropical cyclone. Above image via Weatherzone

On Monday there is great uncertainty with forecasts. Some high resolution forecast data suggests the system will rapidly intensify into a significant tropical cyclone before crossing the North Queensland Coast between Cairns and Mackay. Other forecast data predicts the system crosses the coast as a tropical low or heads South down the Queensland coast as a significant cyclone. 

Our forecast confidence for tropical low development and coastal impacts is very high. Currently there is still great uncertainty if the system will hit the North Queensland as a significant cyclone. We have already produced our first forecast release with high resolution detailed tropical low and cyclone forecast track maps for Queensland. Existing HSC premium members please login here to view the cyclone forecast and map. Further updates will be issued which will greatly increase if a cyclone threatens. 


The high resolution cyclone forecasts, maps and email alerts are available by becoming a HSC premium member by clicking HERE!  

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20 03, 2017

Central East QLD forecast for a drenching this week

Issued 20th March 2017 – Heavy rain is forecast to deliver a drenching to parts of Central Queensland this week! 100 to 200mm is expected fall along the coast between Bowen and Gladstone during the next 4 days. Some locally higher totals are also possible which could result in flash flooding and river rises. Most of Eastern half of Queensland also expecting a wet week ahead with coastal showers and rain areas with inland storms. QLD state forecast can be found HERE! Above image via BSCH showing 4 days rainfall forecast totals. Subscribe to HSC for detailed rainfall and storm forecast maps across QLD here! 

Adjacent inland areas east of the ranges through the Capricornia, Central Coast and Whitsundays are also forecast to receive good falls of between 50 to 100mm. Further West through the Central inland districts scattered showers and isolated storms are forecast to develop each afternoon with some possibility severe with heavy rain leading to flash flooding. 

An upper trough will intensify across the state early this week providing high instability levels across the region. A deepening surface trough along the coast will drag in vast amounts of moisture while converging it into heavy rain areas. Storms will fire up through the inland parts due to daytime heating and these will be generally slow moving through the region.

Monday will see the start of activity before this is forecast to greatly increase during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Winds are forecast to moderate from the North East to South East. Maximum temperatures slightly cool between 25 and 30c though humidity will be above 80% making it very muggy. 

 

bom4dayrainfallforecast20thmarch2017

Above image: 4 day total rainfall forecast via BOM

Click here to subscribe to Higgins Storm Chasing for our detailed rainfall and storm forecast maps across Queensland! 

19 03, 2017

Showers & storms all week for Eastern half of QLD

Widespread rainfall is forecast across the eastern half of Queensland this week with moderate to heavy falls possible along the coast and under showers & storms. Most eastern inland areas are forecast to receive between 20 – 50mm with locally higher falls possible. There is the possibility that some coastal districts could end up with 100 to 150mm for the week due to persistent heavy showers and some rain areas. Subscribe to HSC and click here for maps. Above image via pivotal weather.

On Sunday an upper low is located in South West of the state with a surface trough through Southern, Central and Northern inland. To the East of this trough is a very deep moist onshore flow.  The upper low is forecast to move South out of the state on Monday however a replacement upper trough will develop and remain over the state during the week. The upper low and upper trough will maintain instability across the eastern half of the state this week. The surface trough will remain inland all week maintaining the moist onshore flow. The trough is forecast to eventually push East to Central and Northern districts on Friday or Saturday thus clearing weather to its West and South, though there is considerable uncertainty with this movement. 

 

Sunday – Friday: Widespread showers, isolated storms and some rain areas along the east coast. Scattered showers, storms and some possible rain areas across the Eastern inland half of the state. Some moderate to locally heavy falls possible along the coast. Some storms are expected to be SEVERE each day especially through inland districts with heavy rain the main threat. 

Friday – Sunday: Shower and storm activity contracting to Central East and Northern districts though forecasts during this period remain uncertain with some models maintaining activity across all of Eastern QLD.

NOTE: You may not get showers, storms and rain each and every day but there is very high potential for them to develop. You might miss one day and get hit the next thats is how weather and life is. If you don’t get anything in these areas all week you are simply VERY unlucky! 

For detailed daily rain and storm forecast maps across QLD click here to subscribe! 

16 03, 2017

Another low forecast to hit NENSW this weekend

PLEASE READ!!! HEADS UP SEVERE WEATHER ALERT THIS WEEKEND: Possible for far Southern South East Coast, Southern Darling Downs and Granite Belt in QLD. Highly likely for Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast in NSW. UPDATED on SATURDAY 18/3/17.

CURRENT 10AM SATURDAY + 24HRS: At 10am on Saturday a low pressure system (2a) is located 137km East of Ballina and another low pressure system (1a) is located over land on the Northern Tablelands. There is a deep trough extending East between the 2 lows bringing a band of heavy rain through the middle of the Northern Rivers with moderate rain on the Northern Tablelands. A strong upper trough is located across Southern inland QLD with a surface trough through the South East and Central East which is expected to produce further afternoon showers and storms some possibly severe. Some rain is expected across the Southern Darling Downs and Granite Belt today near the low. In NSW the offshore low (2a) is forecast to move West this afternoon producing heavy rain and strong to damaging winds along the NSW Mid North Coast and Northern Rivers districts with flash flooding a risk.  Subscribe to HSC for detailed 3 day storm and rainfall forecast maps across QLD and NSW here! 

SOUTH EAST QLD WEEKEND OUTLOOK  
On Saturday and Sunday scattered showers, isolated storms (some possibly severe) are likely to develop across the region during the weekend with moderate falls possible mainly under storms. Damaging and dangerous surf of 3 to 5 meters may develop along the South QLD Coast during the weekend. On Monday and Tuesday the wet weather continues across the South East while spreading further North to include the Wide Bay & Burnett and Capricornia districts. This will be due to a very moist onshore flow producing scattered showers and rain areas with moderate to heavy falls likely (50mm each day).

NORTH EAST NSW WEEKEND OUTLOOK
In North East NSW the equation is more simple… Recent widespread heavy rainfall of 100 to 200mm has already fallen from Port Macquarie North to the QLD border causing flash flooding and saturating catchments. There is a further widespread 150 to 300mm likely with local falls to 500mm possible during the next 4 days. On Saturday the stronger low (2a) is forecast to move rapidly West slamming into far North East NSW with strong to damaging winds, heavy rain and damaging surf. During Sunday it is expected to continue West through Northern inland NSW producing heavy rain and strong winds, not just to inland regions but also continuing along the coast. This heavy rain will cause a significant flash flood and river flood risk to these areas. Winds turn strong to possibly damaging Easterlies late on Saturday into Sunday through the Mid North Coast and Northern Rivers. Damaging and dangerous surf of 3 to 5 metres is likely to develop along the North East Coast during the weekend. Widespread showers, rain areas with moderate to heavy falls are likely to continue on Monday and Tuesday. 

We are urging everyone to keep up with the latest forecasts and warnings during the next 4 days, especially over the weekend! Should forecast changes and amendments be required we will do so to this post while producing new ones. You will see “updated” at the top or a link to the new forecast. Stay safe everyone and remember IF IT’S FLOODED FORGET IT! 

SUBSCRIBE to HSC for our latest 3 day rainfall and storm forecast threat maps across SEQLD & NENSW by clicking here! 

15 03, 2017

NENSW a further 400mm likely & flooding

The North East New South Wales coast is already copping a hammering from heavy rain and flash flooding with more on the way this week! Goonengerry on the Northern Rivers has recorded over 250mm in the past 36hrs while Coffs Harbor has seen 150mm in 24hrs to noon on Wednesday. Flash flooding has been occurring across the region with a SEVERE weather warning in place for heavy rain & flash flooding. A River Flood Watch is also current. Above image via WindyTV Subscribe to HSC for detailed forecast maps in NSW!

Further heavy rain and flash flooding is likely from Taree north to the QLD border from Wednesday through until Saturday. Up to 400mm is forecast to fall across the region during the next 4 days. These high rainfall totals are likely to place many creeks and rivers in flood. The exact flood threat and heights will not be known until the heavy rainfall is actually recorded. One thing for certain is that there will be a very high risk of further flash flooding with various roads becoming impassable. IF IT’S FLOODED FORGET IT! 

nensw4dayrainbom15thmarch2017

The weather system causing the heavy rain is a coastal trough which draws in vast amounts of moisture from the East and dumps it overland. Instability is being aided by an upper low of cold air across Northern NSW and once the two air masses clash the atmosphere becomes volatile. Both systems are forecast to be slow moving during the next 3 days and this is why the heavy rain and flood threat is drawn out for the rest of the week. The main focus for activity will be along and East of the ranges. Further west of the range some rain areas and showers are forecast but due to the ranges blocking wind flow patterns it is expected to be much less. The weather system is forecast to breakdown and weaken during Sunday at this stage. Insert image on left via BOM

Click here and SUBSCRIBE to HSC for detailed rainfall and storm threats maps across North East NSW! 

13 03, 2017

Tuesday – SEVERE storms through inland QLD & NSW possible on coast!

PLEASE READ!!! HSC severe storm forecast issued for Tuesday 14/3/17 

QUEENSLAND 
A very defined surface trough is forecast to become established over Southern Inland QLD near St George. This extends North into Central Inland QLD west of Emerald and into Northern QLD. This trough is likely to interact with warm humid air coming in from the East and North-East as well as moderate to strong upper level support over Southern Inland QLD to generate high instability along the Coastal fringe and across Southern districts. A boundary located over the Wide Bay and Burnett region during the afternoon may also help assist in amplifying moisture and instability across the region.

Southern Inland QLD is under an extreme risk with severe thunderstorms highly likely across the region. Due to turning in the atmosphere along with a surface low positioned to the West, conditions are favourable for a heightened chance of Supercells. Damaging winds are likely under most storms, along with heavy rain and large hail. While Supercells may include destructive winds and very large hail. These storms are forecast to track towards the Ranges but may weaken due to timing and atmospheric conditions as they near the Ranges.

East of the Ranges, a lack of surface trough and highly unfavourable steering winds will mean areas South of Brisbane will struggle to see thunderstorms as activity moves back inland. North of Brisbane, there is a good chance of some isolated storms producing damaging winds, hail and heavy rain (heavy rain the key threat) as they interact with the boundary and better steering. 

Along the Central and Northern Coasts of QLD, reasonable steering direction and an inland trough should lead to isolated/scattered thunderstorms developing. These storms should rapidly develop under extreme instability levels and high energy, but only a few may become severe. Heavy rain and damaging winds the main threat.

Good falls are expected across Southern QLD with onshore winds, showers and storms, producing 15-30mm along the Coastline and isolated higher falls (South of Gympie), while inland regions under the severe storms could see falls of 20-40mm also. Scattered to widespread falls of 5-15mm are likely also. Remaining mostly fine across Western QLD.

SUBSCRIBE to HSC for detailed Queensland rain & storm threat maps including email alerts HERE! 

NEW SOUTH WALES 

A cold pool is forecast to remain over Northern Inland and Central Inland NSW during Tuesday with a moderate to strong Easterly flow feeding high levels of moisture in under it. This moisture and upper level support is expected to combine with a weak trough over the NW Slopes and Plains and a surface trough over Southern Inland QLD, as well as strong heating to produce widespread instability across Northern districts and Central Inland districts. 

Conditions are highly favourable for severe thunderstorms across Northern Inland NSW, and favourable across Central Inland NSW with the only exception being that these storms due to an overall lack of surface support, they may become unorganised towards the evening and begin to merge into severe storm masses. Conditions remain favourable over Northern Inland NSW for Supercells however the main threat will shift into Southern QLD. Severe storms will likely contain heavy rain, damaging winds and large to very large hail. 

Along the Coast, steer winds are highly unfavourable for storms to reach the NSW Coastline as the entire Coast is subject to moderate to strong steering winds pushing back inland. Storms however could reach the Ranges and being to converge and back build with heavy rain being the main threat by this stage. Showers should persist regardless with reasonable totals expected. Falls of 15-30mm are expected along the NSW Central Coast while storms and showers across Northern districts should result in falls of 10-30mm with higher totals possible under severe storms.

SUBSCRIBE to HSC for detailed New South Wales rain & storm threat maps including emails alerts HERE! 

 

12 03, 2017

Supercells & severe storms likely in NSW

PLEASE READ!!! Monday and Tuesday’s thunderstorms are forecast to be SEVERE potentially DANGEROUS across Central and Northern parts of New South Wales! There is a very high chance of Supercells developing. A very strong upper low pressure system with cold air aloft moves North through inland parts of the state while a surface trough deepens significantly.  Above image: HSC storm forecast threat map for Monday. These maps are available for QLD, NSW, ACT & VIC by becoming a premium member HERE! 

On Monday a large area through the Central and Northern inland has high risk for severe thunderstorms (Red shaded area). Many severe storms are likely to produce Large Hail, Damaging Winds, Heavy Rain, Flash Flooding and Frequent Lightning. There is also a large area through the same regions where there is an extreme risk of severe thunderstorms (Purple shaded area). In the extreme risk area, Supercells are likely to develop which could produce Giant Hail over 5cm, Destructive Winds over 125km hour, Very Heavy Rainfall, Flash Flooding, Frequent Dangerous Lightning and a RISK of a tornado. If your are in these areas please PREPARE NOW! Some storms may also develop along coast or be pushed towards the coast late in the evening so keep an eye on this. Moderate falls are possible in the far North East. 

During Tuesday the high to extreme risk of severe storms contracting slightly further North, though it still remains through Central and Northern inland parts. Along the NSW coast should again see scattered showers and isolated storms develop with a risk of moderate to heavy falls.  

For the rest of the week there is a moderate risk of very heavy rainfall developing in the far North East of the state. Current forecast data is indicating the potential for 150 to 350mm to fall. Should this occur flooding will become an issue. Further updates will be issued early this week for this secondary system.  

HSC produces detailed rainfall and storm threat maps for QLD, NSW, ACT & VIC to 3 days ahead along with weekly and long range outlooks! SUBSCRIBE here to gain access to these forecasts and email alerts… 

Forecast issued on Sunday 12th March 2017 by Jeff Higgins and Thomas Hinterdorfer 

 

 

10 03, 2017

Big low to bring severe weather to South East Australia

PLEASE READ!!! Forecast issued Friday 10/3/17: Large parts of South East Australia are forecast to experience various forms of severe weather over the next 5 days. A very strong low pressure system is expected to track North from South Australia / Victoria on Saturday and Sunday then right up through inland NSW on Monday and Tuesday. It’s final destination point through Southern Queensland on Wednesday and Thursday. Along the way the system is likely to produce significant weather threats to large parts of South East Australia from strong winds through to possibly destructive winds, heavy rain and large to possibly giant hail. Above image via WindyTV  HSC premium members forecast maps available by subscribing HERE! 

In South East SA including Adelaide and across Victoria including Melbourne, scattered showers and isolated storms are likely to develop on Saturday or Sunday. The biggest threats in these regions are strong to damaging winds, small hail along the coast and possibly large hail inland with storms. The system then clears North out of these areas on Monday.

In New South Wales a band of showers and storms could develop through Western districts and in the far South on Sunday while moving quickly east. These storms have a threat of containing damaging winds. Along the east coast there is potential for isolated showers and storms to develop. Activity greatly increases across the Eastern half of the state on Monday with widespread showers and storms through the Central and Northern inland regions tending scattered showers and isolated storms along the east coast. Now these storms on Monday have the potential to be very severe and dangerous through inland regions west of the ranges with destructive winds and giant hail possible. Also numerous severe storms are likely inland with damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain. Some of these inland severe storms may also push towards the Central and Northern coasts late and will further depend on steering wind strengths. During Tuesday scattered showers and isolated storms along much of the east coast with widespread storms some likely severe through Central and Northern inland again. The very severe and dangerous threat eases. On Wednesday showers likely along the coast due to deep onshore winds with widespread showers and the chance of storms across the North East. Below image: Very high Severe Weather Threat Index forecast on Monday.

severeweatherthreatindexnsw13thmarch2017

The Queensland forecast can be found HERE! 

This is a significant weather system for this time of year especially due to the severe storm potential involved. HSC is urging people in the forecast path to be vigilant and closely monitor forecasts and especially warnings during this time. We will be issuing severe storm and rainfall forecast threat maps across Victoria, ACT, NSW & QLD to our premium members. Unlimited email alerts are also provided for NSW, ACT & QLD. 

BECOME A HSC SUBSCRIBER FOR DETAILED FORECASTS & MAPS ACROSS VIC, ACT, NSW & QLD CLICK HERE!