Issue 2 on Thursday March 23rd 2017. PLEASE READ!!! A low pressure system 1005hpa is located 750km North East of Cairns while intensifying. This low has a very high chance of further developing into a tropical low in the Coral Sea off the North Queensland coast during Thursday and Friday. The tropical low is very likely to move in a South Westerly direction towards the North Queensland coast while intensifying. During Saturday there is a 50% moderate risk and on Sunday a 75% high risk chance for the system to further develop into a tropical cyclone. Above image via Weatherzone
Important forecast note: A world leading high resolution computer model suggests the potential cyclone may undergo a period of rapid intensification during Sunday and early Monday just prior to possible landfall. This rapid intensificaion would be due to the system encountering a very faverable environment of 30 degree sea surface temperatures and very low vertical wind shear. Given this forecast data scenario, a severe category 3 cyclone with VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts between 165km hr and 224km hr would be possible.
There is still some uncertainty though with all global forecast data sets on the exact strength, timing and crossing of the system. People along the North Queensland Coast between Cairns and Mackay including the adjacent inland at this stage should closely monitor further forecasts and updates.
Our forecast confidence is extremely high (90%) for a minimum of tropical low development and coastal crossing in North Queensland with strong winds, heavy rain and possible flooding. This heavy rain and possible flooding would also extend through Northern inland parts early next week. We have produced our second premium member forecast release with high resolution detailed tropical low / cyclone forecast track maps and threats for Queensland. Existing HSC premium members please login here to view daily forecasts and maps. Further daily updates will be issued which will greatly increase if a cyclone develops.
Our high resolution cyclone forecasts, maps and email alerts are available by becoming a HSC premium member by clicking HERE!