Jeff

/Jeff Higgins

About Jeff Higgins

I have had a passion for weather since I was 8 years old. In 2011 I created Higgins Storm Chasing on Facebook which has now grown into a successful meteorology business.
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14 09, 2018

Super Typoon Mangkhut!

Super Typhoon Mangkhut update: 6:30am PHT 15th Sept 2018. The system is still travelling west across Northern Luzon with extreme heavy rain and damaging to destructive winds. Flash flooding and river flooding is also a very high risk. As Mangkhut continues to move west today severe weather conditions are forecast to ease (rain and winds) from around 6pm local PHT time this evening. Stay safe everyone it’s going to be a long day!

4:30am PHT 15th Sept 2018: Super Typhoon Mangkhut (category 5) has made landfall across Northern Luzon, Philippines with wind gusts of around 300km hr. Our thoughts are with people who will have experienced many hours of terror and destruction including Josh from iCyclone who managed to get into the eye wall. It may be many days before we here of reports from the area. Super Typhoon Mangkhut is forecast to continue heading West before slamming South East Asia (just West of Hong Kong) tomorrow (Sunday). Hong Kong may experience winds of 150km hr maybe even 200km hr from the system.

***IMMEDIATE LIFE THREATENING*** Super Typhoon Mangkhut update 10pm AEST 14/9/18: Landfall is now due in 6hrs or at around 2am Saturday 15th of September Phillipines local time. Northern Luzon brace for Super Typhoon (category 5) impacts tonight with very destructive wind gusts to 325km hr, extremely heavy rainfall leading to dangerous flash flooding and river flooding, dangerous storm surge with coastal inundation. Power, water and communications failure imminent. Taiwan and from Manila SOUTH are outside of the forecast Typhoon impact zone.
Stay safe everyone! Below image: NOAA


September 2018: Violent Super Typhoon Mangkhut (high category 5 system 905hpa) is heading directly towards Luzon Phillipines and is expected to make landfall during the early hours of September 15th 2018. Mangkhut contains wind gusts to an incredible 350km hr along with significant wave heights of 55 feet. Cover image: RAMMB/CIRA

This system poses a deadly threat to Northern Luzon and the nearby Northern islands with VERY destructive winds, heavy rainfall, flash flooding and river flooding along with significant storm surge.  

 

14 09, 2018

HURRICANE FLORENCE!

September 2018: Major hurricane Florence impacted North and South Carlolina USA. The system produced life threatening hazards with severe storm surge, flooding and wind damage. Cover image: Alexander Gerst via the ISS. 

UPDATE 7:30AM AEST 15TH SEPT 2018: Hurricane Florence is now situated North of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina and continuing on it’s slow track. Torrrential rain of 300-400mm has been observed near Morehead City with widespread falls of 150-250mm over large portions of the North Carolina Coast. A dangerous storm surge is continuing along the North Carolina Coast as well.

Image RadarScope

VIDEO: Widespread and significant damage is being observed at first light over New Bern, North Carolina (North of Wilmington where Florence’s eye is now overhead)

UPDATE 8:10PM AEST 14TH SEPT 2018: Hurricane Florence is now officially making landfall between Surf City and Wilmington, North Carolina as a Category 1 system with 90mph winds. The system has already produced over 300mm of rain near Morehead City with waterspouts and tornado warnings also active. Significant storm surge impacts are being noted as well along the Coastline. Image RadarScope 

 

5 09, 2018

Storms – some may be severe in NSW & Southern QLD

HEADS UP FOR SOUTHERN INLAND, SOUTH EAST INLAND QLD, NORTHERN & CENTRAL NSW FOR FRIDAY 7/9/18. Issued 5th Sept 2018, updated 6th Sept 2018.

Storm season is forecast to kick off on Friday across Southern inland and South East inland QLD, Northern and Central NSW districts. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds over 90km hr.
A low pressure system and trough is expected to fire up shower and storm activity during the morning through inland areas before being pushed towards the East Coast. Strong mid level winds means that storms may produce damaging winds and raised dust under them. Storm activity is likely between Newcastle and Grafton and East of Charleville to Dubbo.
It’s also possible that some showers and storms reach the South East Coast of QLD late on Friday night.
HSC Premium Members I have just update and upgraded the thunderstorm risk maps so please login here and check out the detailed maps and write ups > https://higginsstormchasing.com/login/
If you’re not a HSC member considering signing up now that storm and cyclone season is getting underway here > https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-memb…/
Image via weather.us

*UPDATED SEVERE STORM FORECAST FOR NORTHERN & CENTRAL NSW FOR FRIDAY 7/9/18*
Storm season is forecast to kick off in a big way on Friday across Northern and Central NSW districts. Some storms LIKELY to be severe with damaging winds over 90km hr, Large Hail over 2cm and Heavy Rain that may lead to flash flooding under storms.
A low pressure system and trough is expected to fire up shower and storm activity during the morning through inland areas before being pushed towards the East Coast.
Strong mid level winds means that storms may produce damaging winds and raised dust under them. Strong instability means that storms may also contain large hail and heavy rainfall.
Storm activity is likely between Sydney and Grafton and East of Moree to Dubbo.
HSC Premium Members please login here and check out our detailed maps and write ups > https://higginsstormchasing.com/login/
If you’re not a HSC member considering signing up now that storm and cyclone season is getting underway here > https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-memb…/
Image via weather.us

31 08, 2018

Dust Storm Alert QLD & NSW

Updated 9am Saturday 1/9/18. Rolling coverage… 
9AM DUST ALERT – Satellite is picking up that large parts of South East QLD & North East NSW are under a heavy dust haze this morning. Excessive amounts of raised dust have pushed through to the Coast overnight from Southern Inland QLD and Northern NSW. This may linger for much of the day. If you have any breathing problems or asthma, it’s best to stay indoors with the windows and doors closed. Take the necessary precautions to stay safe. Below image Weatherzone


A very dusty sunrise across Toowoomba has a magnitude of raised dust makes it over the Ranges. Image via Barbara McGovern

 

Dust covering the horizon at Warwick during Saturday morning. Image via Julie Gilori

 

The Gold Coast looking very hazy courtesy of the dust via Warren Reddaway

 

Thick dust on the horizon near Kyogle, NENSW during Saturday morning via Lee Zammit

6PM QLD / NSW DUST STORM UPDATE 31/8/18: Strong Westerly winds to 85km hr are continuing to drive a thick dust storm across North West NSW & South West QLD. The dust is progressing towards the East through Cunnamulla, Bourke & Cobar. This is a second new dust storm which has developed as opposed to the one earlier today which was under the cloud and rain further East. We estimate the new dust storm will reach a line from Roma, Goondiwindi to Dubbo later tonight then ease on Saturday morning. The thick dust is unlikely to reach the coast at this stage but a dust haze may reach SEQLD & NENSW during Saturday morning. This is the last available visible satellite update for today, we will check on conditions early tomorrow. Below image via Weatherzone. ~ Jeff ~

Thick red dust sweeping through Hungerford along the NSW / South West QLD border during the evening. Video via Keshia Maree Tiffen

A fierce dust storm captured through Forbes, Central NSW as winds reached 70km/h during Friday afternoon. Video via Brad Shepherd

 

12:20pm update 31/8/18: A strong front is causing very gusty Northerly winds of 65 to 90km hr ahead of a gusty Westerly wind change across inland parts of NSW and Southern inland QLD.
These winds are causing areas of raised dust and thick dust storms with zero visibility in places ( circled in red ) top image via Windy.com.
The system is moving towards the East. Please exercise extreme caution if driving in a dust storm. People who suffer from breathing difficulties need to take precautions in these conditions.
We have had multiple dust storm photo and video reports to our facebook page and the conditions are shocking. ~ Jeff ~

Very thick and heavy dust captured through Condobolin, Central NSW during Friday afternoon – sent into The Condobolin Argus.

 

DUST STORM VIDEO: A very thick dust storm has been recorded sweeping through Cunnamulla, Southern inland QLD on Friday 31/8/18. Inland parts of NSW are also copping dust storms.
Video shared to HSC by member Mick Andrews *Not for media use or embedding, permission available directly from the content creator*

Red dust covering Condobolin, Central NSW, after 65km/h winds sweep through. Video via Gen Turner

Wild dust storm captured sweeping through Eumungerie, between Dubbo and Gilgandra, Central NSW after winds of 80-90km/h hit the area. Video via Karen Poulter.

22 08, 2018

Welcome rain & storms forecast across drought areas of NSW & QLD

VIDEO FORECAST issued 22 August 2018. A low pressure system and trough is forecast to deliver welcome rain and storms across drought affected parts of NSW & QLD this Friday and Saturday. Watch the video for full details. Next video update on Friday so be sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel!

 

19 08, 2018

Rain & Storms Likely Across Drought Areas Of QLD & NSW

Issued 19th August 2018. FINALLY some hope! After a very long period of no rain through July and August many computer models are indicating some rain and storms across large parts of drought affected QLD and NSW later this week. Further forecast updates will be required and issued during the week as changes occur. Above image: Rainfall forecast totals (SUBJECT TO CHANGE) via Windy.com

For the past several days leading global models have been consistently forecast a significant cold cored Low pressure system to move North East across South Australia on Thursday and into South Western QLD and Western NSW on Friday. The exact final track will be critical for some of the area rainfall outcomes during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 

Widespread 15 to 25mm rainfall totals are possible at this stage from Rockhampton South and East of Charleville in QLD, North of the ACT and East of Cobar in NSW. Areas further West in South West QLD, Western NSW, Southern NSW and the ACT may also see some thunderstorm and rain activity though falls are expected to remain lighter.

Initially isolated storms could develop through Western NSW on Thursday afternoon before pushing further East into the Eastern half of NSW on Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers and patchy rain areas are also possible.

Showers and storm activity is expected to develop through the South East quarter of QLD on Friday before continuing on Saturday. On Sunday all activity is forecast to shift further East to influence the Central and South East Coast of QLD, Northern Central and Southern coasts on NSW though there remains a fair bit of uncertainty for Sunday. 

It is something which is better than absolutely nothing. It may save a few Winter crops and it may be to late for others. What we do hope is that many people across drought affected areas get some liquid gold so fingers crossed. Highly detailed and accurate 24 hour rainfall and thunderstorm risk maps will be issued over the next few days to cover the system on our premium members weather service. Access is available through our website HERE! Below image: Synoptic forecast via Windy.com

LOWAUGUST2018

 

17 08, 2018

6 Month El Nino Likely From October 2018, Hotter Drier Climate

Issued 17 August 2018. A weak to moderate El Nino climate pattern has up to an 80% chance of developing across Australia from October 2018 to April 2019. Above image: Rainfall deficiencies during the weak to moderate El Nino of 2002-03 which may occur during the rest of 2018 into early 2019 via BOM.

Currently in August 100% of NSW is drought declared, 60% of QLD is drought declared along with large parts of Victoria and South Australia suffering from drought. 

The next 3 to 6 month rainfall and temperature outlooks across Australia are expected to be heavily influenced by the likely forecast of an El Nino weather pattern or Hotter and Drier climate.

So far this year we have been in a neutral ENSO state so we “should” have received near average rainfall across the country. This sadly has not been the case with a severe lack of rainfall across most of Eastern Australia causing severe drought conditions. 

The forecast ahead is very concerning to say the least. It not suggesting it won’t rain its suggesting there is a high risk of well below average rainfall. “You can’t get drier than dry” a farmer told me however you can get prolonged dry conditions which could easily make the current situation much worse for longer. 

If history repeats itself like it has on many occasions, there is a high risk of a later developing Northern wet season by 1 to 2 months. There is also a high risk that large parts of QLD, NSW, ACT, Victoria and SA will receive well below average rainfall. Fodder and grain shortage and livestock losses are already a major problem but as we move forward this forecast also adds enhanced dangerous fire conditions and a growing water shortage issue into the equation. Below image via NOAA showing a likely weak to moderate El Nino (over 0.5) from October 2018 to April 2019. 

NOAANINO34AUGUST2018

Total cyclone numbers are expected to be almost 50% less than across the Australian basin this season however those that do develop have a much higher risk of becoming severe ( category 3 or higher). Dust storms similar to 2009 have a very high risk of occurring during the next 3 months. More frequent severe storms are more likely to develop due to a hotter and drier climate. Large Hail and Damaging to Destructive winds the elevated risks with these. 

Be prepared to endue a very long very hot Spring and Summer with a higher than usual number of heatwaves. Further temperature records are likely to be broken across NSW, QLD, SA, ACT and Victoria as maximum temperatures exceed 40C and edge towards 50C.

IF and it’s a big IF, a cyclone or low depression moves South from up north it may be one of the few chances for decent widespread significant rainfall this season. Historically past El Nino and droughts tend to break in April, May or June in the following year however thats over 6 months away which could spell absolute disaster for Australia.  

I hope I’m wrong, I hope the global forecast data is wrong and I hope that all the other weather agencies suggesting similar are all wrong. People, farmers, hobby farms, primary produces and grain growers need to consider what actions they may take next to prepare ahead using this forecast guidance.  Higgins Storm Chasing issues accurate 3 month long range rainfall and temperature outlooks across QLD, NSW, ACT and Victoria. Access is via our website HERE! Below image: BOMs new NINO34 ACCESS-S forecast model which uses 99 individual outputs with over 80% suggesting an El Nino from October.
BOMNINO34AUGUST2018

 

16 08, 2018

Dust A Risk Across Parts Of NSW & QLD This Weekend

Issued 16th August 2018. Raised dust is a greatly increased risk across large parts of inland NSW & QLD this weekend with some potential it may reach coastal areas. Above image via Windy with dust risk areas circled.

Large parts of both states are very dry and dusty due to ongoing drought conditions. There is very limited ground cover which is leaving a lot of bare dirt exposed and subject to being picked up and carted away by strong winds. 

On Saturday a strong cold front is forecast to move into NSW and South West QLD with West to South West wind gusts between 60 and 80km hr. This change is also very dry so little if any form of rain and storms are forecast.  Given this scenario it is very likely that we will see widespread areas of raised dust through inland NSW, South West and Western QLD on Saturday afternoon. 

On Sunday a secondary surge of strong dry South West winds will push across NSW and well into QLD. These conditions are also likely to continue to produce areas of raised dust through inland districts of both states. There is also the potential that raised dust from Saturday may reach coastal areas of NSW and in a line South from Rockhampton to Mt Isa in QLD during Sunday. 

We are not expecting a similar dust storm intensity as 2009 from this system however a stronger system may produce a dust storm of this magnitude through the rest of August, September and October. This will come down to future forecasts and synoptic patterns with warnings issued if required.

PLEASE NOTE: Fire dangers will be greatly elevated across large parts of NSW & QLD from now until Monday so please have a bush fire plan and keep a close eye on warnings. A separate forecast is being issued for the SEQLD fire dangers on our website. 

22 07, 2018

Above average July maximums for QLD

Issued 22nd July 2018. Maximum temperatures will warm up to above average across Queensland this week. Above image: temperature anomaly via Tropical Tidbits.

Despite the recent run of cold frosty mornings across Southern and South East districts, daytime temperatures will become very warm across the state this week. 

Large parts of the state will climb to a very warm 25ºc or better with areas in the North West and Northern inland exceeding 30ºc. Southern and South East districts will also be warm with between 20 to 25ºc forecast. 

Brisbane is forecast to reach 25ºc on Tuesday which should last right through the rest of the week. Ipswich a degree warmer on 26ºc. These temperatures are around 5ºc above the July long term average. Both cities are running slightly above average for Winter so far… So much for the “record cold Winter” that other bloke from Brisbane Weather banged on about! Toowomba’s forecast of 21ºc all week is 5ºc above average as well. 

Longreach is expected to reach tops of 28 or 29ºc all the week which is 5 to 6ºc above the July average. Emerald, Rockhampton, Townsville and Cairns all going for max temps 26 to 27ºc.

It will be very warm through North West and Northern inland parts of the state… Mt Isa, Cloncurry, Julia Creek, Richmond, Georgetown, Burketown and Normanton all excepted to reach or exceed 30ºc for most of the week which is 3 to 5ºc above average. 

A cold front is forecast to bring a cooler change to South West and Southern inland districts on Saturday and Sunday. Below image: 7 day QLD average maximums via Higgins Premium.QLD7DAYMAXTEMPS23RDJULY2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

19 07, 2018

Dust possible across QLD and likely across NSW on Friday

Issued Thursday July 19th 2018. There is growing talk about dust storms impacting large parts of QLD and NSW over the next 24-36hrs. Above image showing the QLD threat area and wind gusts via Windy.

 


Models are indicating that a trough is expected to move through Inland NSW, Southern and Western QLD overnight Thursday into Friday, pushing towards the Coast during Friday. Strong to gusty West to South West winds behind the trough line are expected to pick up and carry loose dust leading to likely dust storms over South West QLD, North East SA and Western NSW.

As the system pushes towards the Coast, its likely to lose intensity over QLD which should lead to raised dust across large parts of Inland QLD – but not necessarily dust storms. While the trough is expected to push through to the Coast, the dust isn’t expected to reach the Coast… or if it was to reach the Coast, it will barely be noticeable for most people. Across NSW however, winds are expected to strengthen over the ACT, Central and Northern Tablelands + surrounding areas – possibly reaching damaging thresholds of over 90km/h in isolated pockets.. this may help push the dust through to the Coast for areas between Wollongong and the SEQLD border. Again, it may not push through as a dust storm, but more so raised dust.

 

Given the ground conditions across large parts of Inland NSW and QLD and the time of year where fronts typically push through – these kinds of conditions aren’t uncommon. In fact, we’ve already seen a few dust storms across NW VIC and Inland NSW this year.

There has been some talk around South East QLD too about the haze in the sky today (Thursday). This has been caused by smoke as lots of small back burns occur. The smoke has been trapped under an inversion and as the sun shines through, it creates a deep orange or red hue.

Dust threat area with wind gusts for Friday afternoon via Windy.

Dust threat area with wind gusts for Friday afternoon via Windy.