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So far Jeff Higgins has created 80 blog entries.
6 01, 2017

Heavy rain & storms to continue for Central & North QLD!

The wet season has finally kicked in for large parts of Central and Northern Queensland during the past week! Significant rainfall between 200mm and 400mm has been recorded at 40 locations with widespread totals of 100mm to 200mm during the past 4 days. Sarina topped the totals with 424mm while Mackay Airport has seen 329mm fall. Areas of converging rain along with thunderstorms have produced locally heavy falls and flash flooding which if forecast to continue for the next 7 days! Above image via BOM. 

Currently on Friday afternoon there is a low pressure system located just offshore near Townsville which is producing rain areas with moderate to locally heavy falls across the Herbert and Lower Burdekin district. Scattered showers and some rain areas are also occurring along the Central Coast and inland due to a strong South East onshore flow. The heaviest rainfall is expected between Cairns and Mackay especially nearer to the low around Townsville. 24hr totals may exceed 100mm and produce flash flooding this afternoon and tonight. 

During the weekend very little is forecast to change in the current weather pattern with the surface low remaining just off the coast near Townsville. Further rain areas and storms with moderate to heavy falls likely along the Central and North Queensland coasts including the adjacent inland. A focus for activity will remain between Mackay and Cairns where daily totals may exceed 100mm causing flash flooding. Strong South to South East winds will also occur along the coast due to the lows position offshore. 

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Above image showing the strong surface low just off the Central coast on Sunday

On Monday and Tuesday widespread instability continues combined with very high moisture levels to produce scattered showers, storms and rain areas across most Northern and Central Eastern districts. A risk of moderate to heavy falls producing flash flooding will continue to be a threat in these regions. 

Further widespread accumulation totals of 100mm to 150mm are likely with possible locally higher totals to 300mm are forecast for the next 7 days. The heavy rainfall is also likely to produce some flooding across the Northern half of the state. 

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2 01, 2017

Heavy Rain possible flooding for North & Central QLD

HEAVY RAIN & POSSIBLE FLOODING ALERT FOR NORTH & CENTRAL QLD FROM CAIRNS SOUTH TO SEVENTEEN SEVENTY & ADJACENT INLAND AREAS – issued Monday 2/1/17

Current situation at 4pm on Monday 2/1/17: An upper low is located inland half way between Townsville and Mackay which is slow moving with a deep tropical Northerly flow feeding into it. A surface low is developing on the Central Coast near Yeppoon with a strong Easterly onshore flow south to Seventeen Seventy. Scattered showers, storms and rain areas with moderate to possibly heavy falls are occurring along the Coast and adjacent inland areas from Cairns south the Seventeen Seventy. This activity is slow moving and may lead to local flash flooding. Further showers, storms and rain areas are expected to continue tonight across these regions with may produce areas of flash flooding. 

Tuesday: The upper low is forecast to remain slow moving and is expected to be located on the coast near Bowen. A deep tropical flow is forecast to continue feeding in from the North. The surface low is forecast to have reached peak intensity at 35 knots and be located about 200km North East of Yeppoon with a strong South East onshore wind flow from Mackay south to Fraser island. Further scattered showers, storms and rain areas with moderate to possibly heavy falls are expected to continue along the coast from Cairns to Seventeen Seventy including adjacent inland areas. This activity may produce areas of flash flooding with possible river creek and stream rises due to repeated rainfall. 

Wednesday: The upper low is forecast to remain slow moving and is expected to be located just offshore from Mackay. A deep tropical flow is forecast to continue feeding in from the North. The surface low is forecast to have transitioned into a surface trough with intensity remaining at 35 knots and be located from St Lawence south to about Fraser island with strong South East onshore winds. Further scattered showers, storms and rain areas with moderate to possibly heavy falls are expected to continue along the coast from Cairns to Seventeen Seventy including adjacent inland areas. This activity may produce areas of flash flooding with possible river, creek and stream rises due to repeated rainfall. 

Thursday: The upper low move further offshore into the Coral Sea. A deep tropical flow is forecast to continue feeding in over North Tropical Coast south to about Townsville. The surface trough contracts further North be located from Bowen south to about Yeppoon with strong South East onshore winds. Further scattered showers, storms and rain areas with moderate to possibly heavy falls are expected to continue along the coast from Cairns to Yeppoon including adjacent inland areas. This activity may produce areas of flash flooding with possible river, creek and stream rises due to repeated rainfall. 

Flood Watch: Widespread accumulation rainfall totals of 100 to 150mm are expected along parts of the North Tropical and Central QLD coasts including adjacent inland districts during the next 3 to 4 days. Isolated locally higher falls between 150 and 250mm are possible. Slow moving moderate to heavy rain areas and storms may produce flash flooding. Areas under repeated heavy daily rainfall may also see river, creek and stream rises.

 

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30 12, 2016

Monsoon trough & lows to bring heavy rain for QLD!

Widespread heavy rain is forecast to impact much of Queensland including the South East during the first week of the 2017 new year as the monsoon trough deepens with a number of lows forecast to develop. At this stage global model data is not forecasting the development a tropical cyclone which is good news, however a focus will be on the widespread rain with heavy falls leading to possible flooding. Accumulation 8 day rainfall forecast data from the BOM above indicates widespread totals of 100mm for most of Eastern QLD with isolated totals to 300mm along the coast. With many people traveling away on holidays, forecasts and warnings need to be very closely monitored.  

Currently on Friday 30th December 2016 there is an upper low located 175km North East of Mackay which is moving West. This low is suppressing heavy rainfall development over much of the state by blocking the monsoon flow. It is generating scattered showers and possible storms along the coast and adjacent inland between Townsville and Hervey Bay. A tropical low is currently located over North East Northern Territory while moving North and slowly intensifying. The pressure gradient between the upper low, tropical low and monsoon trough is producing scattered showers and rain areas with moderate to heavy falls in the Gulf and Peninsula districts.  This general weather pattern is forecast to continue until late Sunday before a significant change begins to take place across the state.

On Monday a deep tropical low is forecast to be located near the Western Gulf of Carpentaria while linking with the monsoon trough across Northern Queensland. Another new low pressure system is forecast to develop rapidly along the Central QLD Coast. This new low will also extend a deep coastal trough towards the South into Southern and South East QLD districts. Widespread rain is forecast to develop right along the East QLD Coast and adjacent inland with moderate to heavy falls likely through Central and South East QLD districts. Flash flooding will be a high risk in these areas with local 24hr totals up to 100mm possible.

During Tuesday and Wednesday the deep tropical low is forecast to remain located in the North East Northern Territory region with a strong deep tropical monsoon flow across Western and Northern QLD. Widespread rain with moderate to locally heavy falls is expected across much of Northern and Western QLD districts. A low pressure system is forecast to remain across Central and South East QLD while drifting slowly South and intensifying. Strong South East to Easterly onshore winds may develop along the Central and South East QLD Coasts between Rockhampton and Brisbane. Widespread rain with moderate to heavy falls likely along the Central and South East QLD coasts including the adjacent Central and Southern QLD inland areas. Flash Flooding will be a high risk in these areas with local falls up to 100mm possible on both days. 

gfsrain30dec16to6jan17

Thursday and Friday forecasts are very uncertain with movements of the tropical low in NT and low pressure systems through Eastern QLD. At this stage most model data is indicating further rainfall across most of the state. 

With global models still struggling to all agree on forecasts the one above is what is most likely to occur at this stage. Further forecast amendments and updates will be required as confidence grows towards next week. Either way significant rainfall is forecast across much of the state during the next 7 days. 

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28 12, 2016

Tropical Lows possible Cyclone & widespread rain for QLD!

Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is being forecast for large parts of Queensland during the next 7 days. Accumulation rainfall totals up to 500mm are forecast across the Peninsula with up to 250mm along the North Tropical and Central Coasts. Widespread areas with rainfall totals of 50 to 150mm are also possible through most remaining parts of the state including the Northern inland, Central inland, Southern inland and the South East. Locally high 24 hour rainfall totals exceeding 100mm in some locations are a risk due to very heavy rainfall caused by high instability and moisture levels along with any convergence areas which could develop. Flash flooding, river creek and stream rises are likely where the heaviest rainfall is focused and eventuates. Above image BOM.

At the time of issue on Wednesday afternoon an upper level low is located about 700kms East of Mackay in the Coral Sea. This low is forecast to move West during the next few days and cross the Coast between Mackay and Townsville. A combination of the upper low and moist low level onshore flow will increase rainfall activity along the Central and Southern Tropical coasts (Bundaberg to Townsville) during Thursday and Friday. Locally moderate to heavy falls possible along the coast and through adjacent inland districts.

The monsoon trough will intensify across the Gulf of Carpentaria and Far North QLD region during the remainder of the week bringing heavy showers, storms and rain to the Gulf and Peninsula districts. A Tropical Low has a moderate to high chance of developing along the monsoon trough in the Gulf of Carpentaria during Saturday and Sunday. This Tropical Low also has a chance of further developing into a Tropical Cyclone in the Gulf early in the New Year with further updates to be released. 

qldgulftltc28122016

A second weaker Tropical Low has a moderate chance of developing along the North Tropical Coast late Friday or early Saturday. This low is then forecast to move South or South East along the Central Coast during the weekend into early next week and may also head inland. Moderate to Heavy rainfall is possible across large parts of Northern and Central districts during this time, especially along coastal and adjacent inland areas. The moderate to heavy rain may also shift into Central inland, Southern inland and South East districts if the low or trough progresses further South next week.

qldtls28122016

There is still some uncertainty across global forecast models however we have offered an outlook with the most likely scenario at this stage. Further amendments, updates and maps will be required on a daily basis with HSC premium members maps to be released from Thursday onward.

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23 11, 2016

Rain & Thunderstorms returning to Eastern Queensland

Posted by Jeff Higgins on 23/11/16 @ 1pm. Above image: 8 day rainfall forecast 23rd to 30th November 2016 via BOM

After a 2 week break since the last rain and thunderstorm activity a new low pressure trough will begin develop through inland Queensland on Friday. This will produce a lengthy period of unstable conditions to its East with rain and storms expected. The system really ramps up the intensity across South East and Central districts over the weekend while also developing further North to possibly include Northern districts on Monday and Tuesday.

Most of the states East coast and adjacent inland has had well below average rainfall for the past 3 months with a very slow almost non existant start to the storm and wet season so far. We recently posted to our Facebook page “If you live in Queensland and need rain LIKE this status”… It has now been liked 20,000 times with close to 5000 location replies. Much of the states inland regions are doing ok after above average rainfall during Winter and early Spring but the entire East coast has missed out and we are very desperate for rain!

With the area of low pressure will come much higher maximum temperatures with most inland regions forecast to exceed 34c each day for the next week. Along the coast humidity levels will greatly increase with maximum temperatures pushing towards 30c on most days. 

On Thursday there is a slight chance of some isolated storms along and near the inland ranges in South East QLD, while on Friday this activity shifts slightly further North into Central inland regions. Due to very hot conditions we may see these storms explode with rapid development in the late evening. Thus the isolated storms that do develop could very well be severe with all the threats of Large Hail, Damaging Winds, Heavy Rain and Frequent Lightning.  

It is not until Saturday before things really ramp up in the South East and Central districts where instability and moisture levels reach high to very high levels. Widespread thunderstorm activity along with some rain areas are likely across most Central and South East districts south of about Emerald to Rockhampton. Some storms will likely be severe with Heavy Rain, Flash Flooding, Frequent Lightning and Damaging winds all possible. Large hail is less likely due to a saturated atmosphere.  

This widespread storm activity is forecast to continue in intensity over the same areas on Sunday. 

At this stage longer range data suggests unstable stormy conditions will continue over parts the South East and Central districts on Monday and Tuesday while also possibly developing through Northern regions. 

Just remember this is largely a thunderstorm system not a general rainfall system so totals will be highly dependent of exactly where storms form and track. As mentioned in the above the forecasts the best chances of rainfall during the next week will be across South East and Central districts, then this may spread further North to include Northern districts. 

We have already started issuing our detailed forecast maps and text for QLD to our premium members. Members video forecasts and updates will also be produced during this system. Live updates and photos will be posted to our Facebook page.

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11 11, 2016

Heavy rain and strong winds to lash Tasmania this weekend!

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT TASMANIA FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FLOODING & STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS – issued Friday 11/11/16, valid for Saturday 12/11/16 and Sunday 13/11/16

During Saturday a 990hpa low will approach the state from the North West moving East through Bass Straight during Saturday night and Sunday. A strong deep North East wind flow will develop across the state during Saturday morning before a trough attached to the low moves south across the Northern half during Saturday evening. This trough shifts the winds from the North East to the North West before stalling over the Southern half of the state. As the low pressure centre moves East on Sunday a strong deep South East wind flow develops. 

Strong to possibly damaging winds, showers increasing to rain with moderate to heavy falls possible across the North and East during Saturday and Saturday night. Flash flooding, river and creek rises a risk through these areas. 24 hr rainfall totals of 50 to 100mm possible across the North East.

Strong to possibly damaging winds, showers and rain areas continuing on Sunday with moderate to heavy falls possible through the Eastern half of the state. Flash flooding, river and creek rises a risk through these areas. 24 hr rainfall totals of 50 to 100mm possible across the Eastern half including Hobart. 

The low pressure system moves away from Tasmania during Monday with weather conditions easing early. 

24hr rainfall forecast totals for Saturday

24hr rainfall forecast totals for Saturday

24hr rainfall forecast totals for Sunday

24hr rainfall forecast totals for Sunday

 

6 11, 2016

HOT conditions to roast QLD this week

After a mild October maximum temperatures are set to sky rocket over most of Queensland. A stalled low pressure trough system through inland regions of the state will generate a constant hot airmass. There will be no let up from the heat for 5 to 7 days with some locations pushing the 40c mark! Very high fire dangers are also forecast for Central, Southern inland and South East districts.

EAST COASTAL DISTRICTS – VERY WARM & HUMID 
Locations right along the Northern, Central and Southern coastal fringes are likely to see top temperatures each day of between 30 to 35c, however with high humidity levels the “feels like” could be much higher. After midday, afternoon sea breezes on the coast will cool things down but then expect very warm humid nights to follow.
* Brisbane: Mon 30c, Tues 35c, Wed 34c, Thurs 37c and Fri 33c.
* Gold Coast: Mon 30c, Tues 33c, Wed 33c, Thurs 35c and Fri 32c.
* Sunshine Coast: Mon 29c, Tues 32c, Wed 31c, Thurs, 34c and Fri 31c.

seq-nensw-heat-nov-7-to-11
EASTERN HINTERLANDS, VALLEYS & RANGES – VERY WARM TO HOT
There is a heatwave forecast this week for some South East inland districts; Maximum temps of more than 5c above average for 3 or more days running. The afternoon Sea Breeze front is unlikely to reach into these areas.
Locations such as Gatton, Ipswich, Beaudesert, Gympie, Gayndah, Rockhampton, and Biloela the Maximum temperatures are forecast between 35 and 38c each day.
In Toowoomba, Warwick and Stanthorpe Maximum temperatures of between 30 to 35c are expected all week.

ALL REMAINING INLAND DISTRICTS – HOT 
Weather conditions for the entire week are going to be hot with maximum temperatures between 35 and 40c expected. These hot conditions are expected to affect 90% of the state.

STORMS – SOME SEVERE LIKELY
Due to the trough generating high heat and very unstable conditions, thunderstorms are likely across many locations this week. There is a high chance that some of these will be severe. There is also the possibility of a few very dangerous storms and Supercells.

SAFETY DURING HOT WEATHER  
Heat stroke and heat exhaustion are a serious health risks. If they are not treated quickly they may take your life. Here are some precautions to use during hot conditions.
* Drink plenty of water
* Drink less tea, coffee and alcoholic beverages to avoid dehydration
* Wear lightweight, light coloured and loose fitting clothing
* Make sure the clothes you are wearing are made from a fabric which allows you to “breathe” and lets sweat evaporate
* Protect yourself outside. This includes ‘Slip, Slop. Slap. Seek, Slide‘. Seek shade
* Limit physical activity and the time you spend doing outdoor activities.
* Don’t leave children or pets in cars
* Relax and Stay Cool
* Keep your energy level up by eating well nourished foods, which includes plenty of fruit and vegetables
* Watch out for others, including the elderly, young, pregnant and active
* Remember pets and wildlife by offering shelter and plenty of water
* Check your vehicles water / coolant levels to avoid overheating. The safest time to check your engine is before use in the morning when it is cold.

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8 10, 2016

SEQLD/NENSW hot today very windy and cooler Sunday!

The heat is really getting turned up across South East Queensland and North East New South Wales today (Saturday)! Brisbane is heading for a toasty top of 32c while Ipswich, Casino and hinterland regions will push towards 34c. Along the exposed coast at places such as the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Ballina they are all heading for 30c mark. Adding to the heat is a rise in humidity thanks to North West winds which will tend a North East sea breeze during the afternoon. Above image: max forecast temps via BSCH.

Tonight will be very warm and sticky across both regions before a late Saturday night for NENSW, early Sunday morning for SEQLD Southerly wind blast move through!

This Southerly wind could bring wind gusts as high as 80km hr to coastal islands, 60km hr along the exposed beaches and elevated ranges with around 40km hr through most remaining areas.

“You will hear it and feel it when it hits! Trees will roar and your open doors will probably slam shut along the the normal rattles and bangs around from loose items outside around the house.” said Jeff Higgins 

The Southerly is forecast to move rapidly North along the NSW coastal today and has already moved through Sydney Metro this morning with wind gusts up to 60km hr being recorded. The change is expected to reach NENSW around 10pm tonight and into SEQLD by 4am Sunday morning. 

SEQLD&NENSWWIND9THOCT2016

Above image: Southerly wind forecast early Sunday morning via BSCH

If you are camping outdoors or boating through these regions please be aware that strong winds are on their way later on Saturday and into Sunday. 

During Sunday maximum temperatures will be up to 8c cooler than Saturday across both regions along with cloudy conditions and the chance of a few light showers. 

A reprieve from the heat doesn’t last long as its set to return on Monday with temps pushing over 30c again. 

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6 10, 2016

13 cyclones predicted in Australia for the 2016-17 season!

A slightly above average number of cyclones predicted in the Australian region for 2016-17!

  • 13 cyclones in total across the Australian region with 6 possibly severe category 3 or above.

  • 6 cyclones in total for Western region with 3 possibly severe.

  • 2 cyclones in total for Northern region with 1 possibly severe.

  • 5 cyclones in total for Eastern region with 2 possibly severe.

  • 5 cyclone coastal crossings in total with 2 in the Western region (WA), 1 in the Northern region (NT) and 2 in the Eastern region (QLD).

  • Up to 18 tropical lows across the Australian region with a number of lows impacting the mainland across all regions.

For detailed Tropical Cyclone forecasts including threat maps in QLD, NT & WA subscribe to our premium membership here!

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Last season 2015-16 cyclone review:

The past 2015-16 cyclone season produced well below the normal average number of 10 cyclones with only 3 occurring throughout the entire Australian area. This became the lowest number of  cyclones ever recorded for a season since 1969 when records became more reliable. All of the cyclones in 2015-16 remained under the severe category 3 criteria with Stan being the strongest as a brief category 2 system which eventually crossed the WA Coastline… the only Australian coastal cyclone crossing for the 2015-16 season. This very low number of cyclone development was largely due to a record strength El Nino climate pattern being in place at the time.

So why reflect on the last cyclone season? Because we are predicting up to 10 more cyclones developing during the 2016-17 season than last season! 

This season 2016-17 cyclone prediction: 

The 2016-17 cyclone season is expected to be considerably more active with a slightly above average number of cyclones being predicted. This increased cyclone activity prediction is largely due to continued forecast changes in weather patterns along with the significant changes which have occurred during the past 6 months. These forecasts and changes have then been coupled with historical data matches to produce the outlook. 

We predict as many as 13 cyclones may form within the Australian area of responsibility with up to 6 of these possibly developing into severe cyclones category 3 or higher. 5 cyclones in total are predicted to cross the coastlines of Australia with the Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland all seeing a crossing at some stage. There is also the potential for ‘a’ or a few long tracked cyclones covering multiple regions. This is largely due to the climate patterns being more favourable for not only cyclone development but prolonged development. Historically similar years have accounted for multiple long tracked cyclones. There is also the forecast for around 18 tropical lows to form within the Australian coverage area. While most of these are expected to remain offshore, some may even cross the Coast and head well inland which can lead to significant heavy rain, flooding, strong wind as well as the addition of dangerous seas. 

The Western Au region including the Indian Ocean and Timor Sea is predicted to be the most active area with 6 cyclones developing within Australian waters with a few of these expected to become severe and 2 crossing the Western Australian coastline. 

The Eastern Au region including the Coral Sea, Gulf of Carpentaria and far South West Pacific is also predicted to be largely active with 5 cyclones forecast to develop. 2 of these possibly becoming severe with 2 crossing the Queensland coastline. 

The Northern Au region including Arafura Sea is predicted to see 2 tropical cyclones develop with 1 possibly severe and 1 crossing the Northern Territory coastline. 

Climatology outlook and prediction reasoning for 2016-17:

This cyclone predication is based off key climate drivers which influence the weather on Australia and is coupled with historical data. A strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole has been observed since June 2016 with a gradual weakening back to neutral forecast by December 2016. The IOD is then forecast to remain in a neutral phase during the cyclone outlook into 2017. Note: The IOD has been the main climate driver for Australia during Winter and early Spring which produced record rainfall to many parts. 

The recent El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) observations have been on the borderline of La Nina thresholds since late September into early October. The Niña 3.4 Equatorial Pacific Ocean region is forecast to cool slightly further with the possibility for a late developing brief but weak La Niña pattern. Should the weak La Niña not eventuate a cool side of neutral ENSO is very likely to occur from now until the end of April 2017. Note: The record El Niño which caused prolonged hot dry conditions in Australia ended in May this year. A La Niña pattern often brings above average rainfall to Northern and Eastern Australia.

The Southern Oscillation Index has recovered from the deep El Niño negative phase in recent months to be currently valued at +13 in early October which is above La Niña thresholds. These values are indicating an atmospheric change has taken place along with a coupling between the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and atmosphere over Australia is occurring. Note: A persistent SOI value over +7 typically indicates La Niña conditions with wetter conditions likely over Northern and Eastern Australia during these periods. 

Sea surface temperatures around Northern Australia and Eastern Queensland remain warmer than average which offers a more favourable environment for cyclone development with higher intensities.

Given the observed changes in recent climate patterns along with the forecast for further changes which both influence the Australian weather patterns, we believe these to favour slightly above average cyclone activity for 2016-17 season. Should this eventuate, cyclone numbers will be greatly increased in comparison to last season. 

Disclaimer:

This cyclone prediction is of our unqualified opinion and is guidance which is offered “as is” based off observational and forecast data and the way we best interpret it. We do urge all people living in cyclone prone areas of Australia to prepare for the cyclone season by having your emergency kits and plans ready. We hope everyone stays safe during the cyclone period, if you are impacted our thoughts will be with you. 

23 09, 2016

Severe weather expected to impact large parts of South East Aust.

SEVERE WEATHER HEADS UP EARLY ALERT ISSUE 1 FOR PARTS OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA, VICTORIA, NEW SOUTH WALES & TASMANIA: Moderate to possibly heavy rain leading to flash flooding and river flooding, damaging winds, very cold temperatures with snow during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

GENERAL WEATHER HEADS UP FOR QUEENSLAND & SOUTHERN NT: Moderate rain and storms for far South West QLD & Southern NT late Monday / early Tuesday then widespread rain and storms throughout QLD on Thursday.

Top image: The deep low forecast on Thursday via Pivotal.7 day rainfall totals via Pivotal

7 day rainfall totals via Pivotal

There are a total of 3 separate weather systems forecast to impact various parts of the Eastern half of Australia during the next 7 days with the most significant being a very deep low pressure system and cold front from Wednesday through to Friday! Modelling is currently varying the pressure depth of the low over South East Australia between a whopping 970 and 990hpa… either or it is forecast to be very deep. 

The first is a cold front to sweep through South Australia during Saturday then across Victoria and Tasmania during Sunday. This front is expected to bring showers, rain areas, isolated storms and strong winds followed by cold temperatures. Rainfall totals between 10 and 15mm are forecast.  

The second system is a low pressure trough through Central Australia on Monday and Tuesday which is forecast to deliver rain and storms trough Southern NT, far Northern SA and South West QLD. Rainfall totals between 15 and 25mm are forecast. 

Then the third and most significant system which is a very deep large low pressure system over the South East region with a cold front extending North. This is forecast to impact the entire Eastern half of Australia during Wednesday and Thursday contracting to South East on Friday. The strongest impacts will be felt nearest to the low pressure centre which is expected to be through South East South Australia, Southern parts of New South Wales, ALL of Victoria and Tasmania. In these regions there is an elevated risk of Moderate to possibly Heavy rainfall where widespread totals of 25 to 50mmm are currently forecast with possible locally higher falls to 75mm. These rainfall totals could lead to likely flash flooding with further river, creek and stream flooding. Remembering these areas have recently experienced high rainfall with flooding and saturation levels are high.

As with any deep low pressure system comes a high risk of very strong to damaging winds initiating from the North to North West at first then turning West to South West. These winds are likely to affect parts of SA, VIC, NSW, ACT & TAS especially exposed coastal and elevated regions. Peak gusts of around 100km hr  are currently forecast with widespread 50 to 75km hr winds.

This low will have a very cold polar core with temperatures as low as -40c at 20,000ft! These very cold temperatures are transferred down through the atmosphere with freezing conditions in the lower levels. Small hail with showers and storms becomes a high risk. Snow is expected to fall from this system to as low as 900 meters in Victoria, Tasmania and Southern New South Wales where the Alps may pick up 20cm of fresh powder during Thursday and Friday. 

For Queensland and remaining parts of Northern and Central New South Wales the low pressure system intends a trough and cold front North into both states late Wednesday early Thursday. A band of scattered showers, isolated storms and rain areas are forecast to move across both regions from the West reaching the East coasts by late Thursday night. Widespread rainfall totals of between 10 and 20mm are to be expected. 

NOTE: This is an extended 5 to 8 day forecast discussion where model data agreement currently has moderate to high confidence for the significant low pressure system to develop. Accuracy of forecasts and exact areas impacted could change with further data updates in coming days, we are asking people in the above mentioned areas to be aware and prepared for the pending severe weather outlook.

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