First Severe Storm Outbreak Possible!

First Severe Storm Outbreak Possible!

It may be late August, but we are already staring down the barrel at potentially the first severe storm outbreak of the 2022/2023 season. Severe storms aren’t unheard of in August or September (just remember back to September 30 last year when there were tornadoes impacting Bathurst, Armidale and Narrabri)… however it’s unusual to see widespread multi-state outbreaks until at least October.

A strong front and associated trough is expected to move Eastwards across Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland on Monday. This system is expected to draw in moisture from multiple sources including the Bight and Coral Sea, which will combine with above to well above average temperatures and strong upper level support. This will help to produce a large area of instability. As a result of this, scattered to widespread storms are likely going to develop over Inland NSW, the Western half of VIC and Western QLD before moving East. Several of these storms are likely going to become severe with damaging winds, heavy rain producing flash flooding and large hail all possible.

Instability across QLD, NSW & VIC on Monday, August 29th 2022 with a sharp trough indicated in green and a double moisture pump from the Gulf & Coral Sea indicated in purple. Image via GFS /

Additional wind shear over VIC, South West and Central West NSW in particular may help to produce some supercells with a low chance of destructive winds and giant hail (if it was October, both of these threats would be very likely… but it is still August). 

This system is expected to move East during Tuesday and Wednesday with storms likely over many other parts of QLD & NSW – just maybe not quite at the levels expected on Monday.

Atmospheric sounding showing low level rotation favourable for supercells and good hail CAPE - favourable for large hail through North West VIC on Monday afternoon, August 29th 2022. Sounding via GFS model /
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